No more peak oil here for a while. This discussion is mostly between two people. Leigh says it will happen right away; David says no, but the discussion is not going forward.
I do not have the certainty of either. I know enough about economists' record on predictions to realize that you should never assign a date to your predictions. You can talk about trends, but trends can change. As I mentioned before, as long as you accept that the total supply of oil is fixed, a peak is a mathematical certainty at some time in the indefinite future. We can google all we want for evidence to support a quick peak or one decades in the future, but that does not constitute proof. If I were to bet, I would guess that a relatively near peak would be more likely, but like the philosopher, Donald Rumsfeld, I am aware of the possibility of unknown unknowns. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu michaelperelman.wordpress.com
