David:

> I bet with my equally imaginary 1 trillion, that he could
> never syndicate a loan for $1 trillion even on the "sure thing"
> of peak oil.

I will not take the opposite side of your bet because there is no arbitrage
opportunity here. Nobody would loan me that much because they would kow that
nobody would take the opposite side of my bet. But the "peak oil" is a sure
thing as long as the rate of consumption exceeds the rate of renewal. This has
nothing to do with any kind of deep social, political or economic analysis,
whether Marxist or not. It is a simple fact of physics. If you are arguing that
sooner or later we as humans will find a way to lower the consumption rate
below the renewal rate, then this would be another bet and I will not take the
opposite side here either: no arbitrage opportunity.

Further, I like the arbitrage of the second kind more: you get paid something
now to pay nothing in the future.

Sabri



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