> When it shows an unsuccessful poll, I don't see a query at that time,
> but I do typically see a couple of others at about the relevant time,
> perhaps 4 - 6 seconds apart.  These ones don't appear in the monitor log.

The most likely explanation is routing glitches. I'd try to establish
a traceroute between the monitor and the server and see whether this
reveals oddities.

Tracing to your system, I get

...
 6  10gigabitethernet5-3.core1.lon1.he.net (2001:470:0:1d2::1)  30.992
ms  30.548 ms  30.881 ms
 7  a.armless.thn.aaisp.net.uk (2001:8b0:0:53::5a9b:3506)  25.585 ms
26.004 ms  25.919 ms
 8  b.gormless.thn.aaisp.net.uk (2001:8b0:0:53:203:97ff:fe05:c000)
26.413 ms  26.055 ms  26.437 ms
 9
7.a.0.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.0.b.8.0.1.0.0.2.ip6.arpa
(2001:8b0:1111:1111::10a7)  671.539 ms  667.176 ms  674.588 ms
10  * * *
11  * * *

Notice that the first hops have pretty good roundtrip times, and then
performance degrades massively when it hits your network; 0.5s is a
really bad roundtrip time for an NTP server.

Regards,
Martin
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