dari milis tetangga........
>Ada artikel yang menarik di Bloomberg hari ini... > >Would You Rather Own Google or Indonesia?: > >William Pesek Jr. >Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Faced with poverty, surging oil prices and >terrorist threats, many of Indonesia's 235 million people probably >never noticed the milestone. Ditto for global investors, who care more >about such things. > >In April, Google Inc. surpassed Indonesia's entire stock market in value. > >Think about it. A seven-year-old company that produces no physical >products is now more valuable than the equity of Southeast Asia's >biggest economy. Indonesia is an archipelago of some 18,000 islands >holding natural resources --including oil -- that make the world's >richest nations salivate. Google is, well, an Internet search tool. > >It raises an intriguing question, and one Mark Matthews, a >Singapore-based director at Merrill Lynch & Co., posed this week in a >sales note to clients: Which would you rather own: 100 percent of the >Indonesian equities market or Google? > >A bit existential perhaps, but a question that focuses the mind and >gets at a bigger point. Matthews' take on it? Indonesia is the clear >winner. > >``Indonesia is a hairy asset to be sure,'' he wrote. ``It has African >levels of corruption, thousands of islands spread out over three time >zones, Islamic extremists. But judging by the market's ability to >withstand the most recent mini-crisis and Bali bombs, this is in the >price. So there is upside if they can eventually get it right. And it >is something real.'' > >Today's Cotton Gin? > >Matthews can't help but wonder if Google will go the way of inventor >Eli Whitney. ``The cotton gin changed America,'' Matthews wrote. ``It >revitalized the South and boosted the British textile industry, and >had a thousand other effects. And this earned the inventor, Eli >Whitney, almost nothing.'' > >What's all this got to do with Google? ``That's sort of where Google >is today,'' Matthews wrote. ``Google has a small lead over a pack of >competitors, all eager to fight for one of the few remaining >high-margin zones left in tech-land. Does Google management know that >the supply of advertising space on the Internet is unlimited? > >Google's market cap is $92 billion and last year it had $3.2 billion >in sales. Indonesia's stock market is valued at $72 billion and its >gross domestic product is $258 billion. PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia, >the nation's biggest telephone operator, alone had sales of 33.9 >trillion rupiah ($3.3 billion) in 2004. In other words, one company >that's just 14 percent of the Jakarta Composite Index had more sales >than Google. > >Indonesia's Pros and Cons > >Matthews' basic conclusion is this: Folks who buy Indonesia at current >prices may do better than those who buy Google. > >In 1998, for example, Microsoft Corp.'s market cap was bigger than >South Korea's. Now Microsoft's is $272 billion and Korea's is $530 >billion. ``If I could take a 7-year view on them, I would long >Indonesia and short Google,'' Matthews says. > >Aficionados of the information age may fear Matthews is spending too >much time in the tropical sun. The stock of the most- used Web search >engine rose 62 percent this year alone. Clearly, people are making >some serious money off Google. And how many companies have seen their >name become a verb? > >Google comparisons aside, Matthews raises some interesting points >about the state of the world's fourth most-populous nation. > >The aftermath of the deadly Oct. 1 bombings in Bali hasn't been what >their perpetrators might have expected. If the hope of the suicide >bombers who killed themselves and 19 other people was to shake >confidence in Indonesia's economy, they failed miserably. > >Bonds Tell the Story > >That Indonesia's stocks are still up nearly 10 percent this year is >one sign. A more important one is that Indonesia drew excess demand >last week for its biggest overseas debt sale, and that it plans to >sell more 30-year bonds in 2006. > >If investors viewed Indonesia as a basket case -- which many did >following the 2002 Bali bombings and the 2003 attack on the JW >Marriott Hotel in Jakarta -- would they really have placed $4.25 >billion of orders for the $1.5 billion of 10- and 30-year debt it >sold? That demand prompted the government to increase the sale by 20 >percent. > >While the yields Jakarta is paying are higher than those offered in >April, they were at the bottom of the range marketed to fund managers. >The demand reflects confidence President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is >making progress toward reducing Indonesia's budget deficit, protecting >currency reserves and attacking corruption. > >Subsidy Gamble > >Risks indeed abound in Indonesia, an economy whose only real >consistency is its ability to confound investors. The place has >crushing poverty, terrorist threats and chronic inefficiencies. And >those are just the concerns investors focus. Any Asia-wide outbreak of >bird flu, for example, could hit Indonesia hard. > >Yudhoyono says he's tackling the problems that cost Indonesia the >foreign direct investment it needs. Earlier this month, he almost >tripled kerosene prices and more than doubled diesel tariffs to cap >fuel subsidies and reduce the budget deficit. > >While a tricky maneuver for any leader, that's a particularly perilous >one in Indonesia. In 1998, the removal of subsidies fueled violent >protests that toppled President Suharto. Yet Standard & Poor's on Oct. >3 said Yudhoyono's move was ``encouraging'' and will spur investor >confidence. > >It's a reminder that in any Google versus Indonesia debate, Asia's No. >7 economy may not be as bad a bet as you think. > > >To contact the writer of this column: >William Pesek Jr. in Tokyo at [EMAIL PROTECTED] [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> DonorsChoose.org helps at-risk students succeed. 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