http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/16/ballen.iranian.democracy/
Point penting.
1. Rakyat Iran, termasuk PENDUKUNG Ahmadinejad, ingin demokrasi yang lebih
besar.
2. Namun sejak 3 minggu sebelum pemilu, popularitas Ahmadinejad memang sudah
unggul dibandingkan suara pesaing terdekat (Mir Hossain Moussavi) dengan
perbandingan 2:1.
By Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty
Special to CNN
Editor's note: Ken Ballen is president of Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for
Public Opinion, a nonprofit institute that researches attitudes toward
extremism. Patrick Doherty is deputy director of the American Strategy Program
at the New America Foundation, a think tank that promotes ideas across the
ideological spectrum.
Kenneth Ballen says whoever won the election, Iranians strongly favor free
elections and a free press.
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(CNN) -- In a poll conducted three weeks before Iran's June 12 vote, our
nonprofit organizations found a consensus among Iranians, including almost all
of those who told us they would vote for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. And
that consensus is that Iranians want a truly democratic system.
Given Iranians' own priorities for their government, the events of the past few
days may ultimately weaken President Ahmadinejad's standing -- even among those
who did vote to re-elect him.
In fact, our survey found that more than 86 percent of Iranians who said they
would vote for Ahmadinejad also chose ensuring free elections and a free press
as among the most important priorities they have for the Iranian government.
The recent events -- the early announcements of election returns, the shutting
down of communications networks, the massive protests and now the bloodshed --
have the potential to change what was once an electoral contest into a broader
struggle for the soul of the Islamic Republic and the future of Iran itself.
Let us be clear: Our polling indicates that the government's actions run
counter to the priorities of almost all Iranians, including its own supporters.
And our survey shows beyond dispute that Iranians of all political persuasions
want more democratic freedoms, not less.
Our op-ed published on Monday has drawn much attention -- and misunderstanding.
Our nonprofit organizations conducted the only independent and transparent
nationwide public opinion survey in Iran before the June 12 vote. The poll
found that Ahmadinejad was leading his nearest opponent, the more reform-minded
candidate Mir Hossein Moussavi, by a more than 2-to-1 margin, with almost a
third undecided.
Our poll concluded three weeks before the election. It does not predict the
final vote, nor does it measure a possible surge for Moussavi, which many
believe occurred in the final weeks. Instead, as we wrote on Monday, our survey
indicates "the possibility that the vote is not the product of widespread
fraud" because of Ahmadinejad's formidable early lead.
This single finding, however, has obscured our most important findings, and
their significance to what is now enfolding in Iran.
Nearly 80 percent want the right to vote for all their leaders, including the
all-powerful supreme leader, while nearly 90 percent chose free elections and a
free press as the most important goals they have for their government --
virtually tied with the top priority of improving the Iranian economy.
And here is the most important fact of all: More than 86 percent of those who
told us they support Ahmadinejad also choose free elections and a free press as
their most important priorities for their leaders. In other words, in our
survey, Ahmadinejad supporters back real democratic reforms in Iran as much as
supporters of the more avowedly reform candidate Moussavi.
Put all together, our polling shows that Ahmadinejad, running a competent
campaign, may have had enough support three weeks before the vote to possibly
win the election under the electoral rules as they stood. With Ahmadinejad's
early lead, it is possible that the vote reported did actually reflect the will
of the Iranian people, though now, it is impossible to know. Analysts pore over
"ambiguous" election results
Yet the government's actions since the election may have changed the debate in
Iran from being about candidates to being about democracy. While we do not know
whether the election results were rigged, the government's handling of the
election itself runs counter to principles of democracy, free press and free
elections -- goals our polling shows almost all Iranians, whether or not they
support Ahmadinejad, strongly support.
Moussavi appears to understand this. Yesterday in a massive rally in Tehran,
Moussavi stated as much, saying "The vote of the people is more important than
Moussavi or any other person." Meanwhile, the subsequent killing of protesters
by government security forces will likely only work against Ahmadinejad and by
extension now, the supreme leader, even among more than 86 percent of their
supporters.
While our poll showed Ahmadinejad with an early commanding lead, by the
government's post-election response, the irony is that Ahmadinejad may indeed
end up stealing the election -- from himself.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Ken Ballen and
Patrick Doherty.
Satrio Arismunandar
Executive Producer
News Division, Trans TV, Lantai 3
Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav. 12 - 14 A, Jakarta 12790
Phone: 7917-7000, 7918-4544 ext. 4034, Fax: 79184558, 79184627
http://satrioarismunandar6.blogspot.com
http://satrioarismunandar.multiply.com
Verba volant scripta manent...
(yang terucap akan lenyap, yang tertulis akan abadi...)
--- On Fri, 6/26/09, Riza Sihbudi <[email protected]> wrote:
From: Riza Sihbudi <[email protected]>
Subject: [ismes] PILPRES IRAN
To: "ismes ismes" <[email protected]>, "ismes jakarta"
<[email protected]>
Cc: "aipi aipi" <[email protected]>, "P2P LIPI"
<[email protected]>, "kip kip" <[email protected]>
Date: Friday, June 26, 2009, 4:39 PM
[ dari milis tetangga ]
Klo ada yg tertarik dgn hasil pilpres Iran 2009, diluar hiruk pikuk media yg
berbeda satu sama lain, mungkin ada yg tertarik membaca analisis awal hasil
statistik pilpres yg dimenangkan Ahmadinejad kemarin.
Berdasar analisis ini, ada beberapa klaim media (barat) yg tampaknya kurang
berdasar, khususnya menyangkut mobilisasi suara para pemilih pasif di pemilu2
sebelumnya kepada ahmadinejad dan jg klaim bahwa beliau banyak di dukung para
pemilih di pedesaan. Kenyataannya, persebaran suara Ahmadinejad lebih variatif,
dan malah kebanyakan dr urban dan sub-urban.
Juga perpindahan suara kubu reformis ke Ahmadinejad yg sangat besar.
silahkan baca lengkapnya di : http://www.chathamh ouse.org. uk/publications/
papers/view/ -/id/755/
Bandingkan dgn artikel di situs CNN beberapa waktu lalu, ttg polling yg
dilakukan lembaga independen 3 minggu sebelum pilpres iran, menunjukkan bahwa
maski mayoritas rakyat Iran mendukung penuh demokrasi, namun mereka lebih suka
memilih Ahmadinejad. lihat di : http://edition. cnn.com/2009/ WORLD/meast/
06/16/ballen. iranian.democrac y/
Get your preferred Email name!
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