http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/13/AR2009111304246.html?wpisrc=newsletter
Yemen's fight with rebels a regional concern
Sunni-Shiite tensions grow as Saudis allege Iran's involvement
By Sudarsan Raghavan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, November 14, 2009
MAZRAQ, YEMEN -- Along the jagged, oatmeal-colored mountains of northern Yemen,
civil war has transformed the windswept landscape into a canvas of human
misery, bolstering al-Qaeda's efforts to create a haven in the Middle East's
poorest nation.
It is a war largely hidden from the rest of the world the past five years, and
it pits the Hawthi rebels, who are Shiites, against Yemen's government. In
recent days, however, it has also drawn in Saudi Arabia. Yemen and Saudi
Arabia, both ruled by Sunnis, accuse Shiite Iran of backing the rebels, raising
the specter of a proxy war that could elevate sectarian tensions in this
oil-rich region.
The fighting could have serious implications for the U.S. anti-terrorism effort
in a failing nation where al-Qaeda is gaining strength, Western diplomats and
Yemeni analysts say. The war is drawing attention and scarce resources away
from efforts to combat poverty, a secessionist movement in the south and piracy
along the nation's shores. A prolonged conflict, they say, could further weaken
Yemen's government and deepen societal fissures, allowing al-Qaeda militants to
thrive.
"The longer the war in the north continues and the longer the problems in the
south continue without resolution, the more we pave the road for al-Qaeda,"
said Yahya Abu Asbu, a Foreign Ministry official and deputy secretary general
of the Yemeni Socialist Party. "Yemen will become more dangerous than Somalia."
Ruling party officials concede that the war is siphoning resources from other
pressing problems, but they say their priority is to crush the rebellion.
"You cannot say the Hawthis are less dangerous than al-Qaeda," said Yasser
Ahmed Bin Salim al-Awadi, who heads the government's ruling bloc in parliament.
"Al-Qaeda is not doing something like what the Hawthis are doing now."
The war has forced more than 175,000 Yemenis to flee their homes; many more
remain trapped in areas gripped by violence.
Ali Abdu and his family are among the war's newest victims.
They escaped to Saudi Arabia two months ago. But last week, the Hawthi rebels
crossed into Saudi Arabia and attacked a Saudi patrol. The kingdom retaliated
by bombing rebel positions in Yemen, but also forced Abdu and hundreds of other
desperate refugees back across the border.
Evading bombs and bullets, the family reached Mazraq, a crowded refugee camp
less than five miles from the front lines.
"It is our destiny," said Abdu, 45, with no hint of emotion. He paused, then
added: "Only Allah knows why they are fighting."
The clans
The Hawthis, who believe in the Zaydi branch of Shiite Islam, ruled northern
Yemen as a religious imamate for nearly a millennium before being overthrown in
a 1962 coup. Ever since, Yemen's rulers have been wary of them and other Zaydi
clans. The Zaydis make up more than a quarter of Yemen's population and
constitute a majority in the north.
The rebels accuse the government of trying to dilute their religion by
installing Sunni fundamentalists in mosques and official positions in some
Zaydi areas. The government maintains that Hawthis seek to bring back the Zaydi
imamate.
The conflict began in 2004 with a few hundred rebel fighters. It has grown into
a full-fledged insurgency that Yemen's undisciplined military has struggled to
contain, despite its deployment of military units and resources to the north.
Last year, the fighting reached the outskirts of Sanaa, the capital.
In the town of Mazraq on Thursday, the market was crowded with disheveled
Yemeni soldiers in ragtag uniforms. Many carried aging Kalashnikov rifles and
rode in the back of pickup trucks, chewing khat, a mildly narcotic leaf popular
in Yemen.
Yemeni officials expressed confidence that they could crush the rebellion, now
that the Saudis were pushing from the north. The kingdom is deeply concerned
about having a hostile Shiite region on its southern border.
The rebels say they staged the border attack, which killed a Saudi soldier,
because of Saudi support for Yemen. Hawthi rebel commanders have denied Iran is
supporting them. Iran, too, has denied arming or financing the rebels. Yemen
and Saudi Arabia have not provided credible evidence of Iranian support,
Western diplomats and analysts say.
Still, Saudi Arabia's entry into the conflict has touched a nerve with Iran.
This week, Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, declared that no nation
should "interfere" in Yemen's internal affairs, a veiled snipe at Saudi Arabia.
Some analysts say if Saudi Arabia continues to attack the rebels, Iran might
decide to back the Hawthis, if it hasn't already, as a way to gain leverage
over Riyadh.
"Iran believes the biggest obstacle to its growing influence in the region is
Saudi Arabia," said Najib Ghallab, a political researcher at Sanaa University.
"To weaken Saudi influence, Iran believes Yemen is the starting point."
Sectarian differences
Many Yemenis say al-Qaeda is already taking advantage of the government's focus
on the north. An al-Qaeda ambush this month in the east that killed five
security officials raised questions over whether the thinly stretched
government can control the entire country. "In this environment, security is
weak and the government is busy with wars. This is the environment al-Qaeda
wants."
Some officials allege that the Hawthis are allied with the Sunni militants of
al-Qaeda, but they provide no evidence. Most analysts view it as an attempt by
a weak government to generate support from the United States and other Western
powers that fear Yemen is descending into chaos. The Hawthis have long been
deeply antagonistic toward hard-line Sunni fundamentalists, making any alliance
with al-Qaeda unlikely.
Critics of the government declare that the war can be ended quickly through
negotiations. They accuse Yemen's president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, of engaging in
war to bolster his military authority, weaken political rivals and milk more
economic and military aid from Western powers.
Awadi dismissed such suggestions. "It's not in the government's interest to
make war in the hope it will bring more instability."
As the conflict rages, sectarian and tribal animosities are deepening. In the
camp, some refugees said Hawthis had forced Sunnis from their villages.
"They were the first to be exposed to any dangers," Ahmed Garela Al-Balawi, 43,
a Zaydi Shiite who fled Haidan, a Hawthi stronghold, said last week.
In Sanaa, government forces have detained Shiites thought to support the
Hawthis, human rights activists say. Shiites have been banned from sensitive
jobs and were ordered to hand in weapons, said Hassan Zaid, the Shiite leader
of the al-Haq party, which supported the Hawthis. His party has since been
dissolved.
Awadi doesn't dispute taking action against Hawthi supporters, but he said
there were no sectarian motives.
Outside the camp, Ahmed Davish, 37, shooed away flies buzzing around his face.
He and his family had arrived five days earlier -- also forced from Saudi
Arabia.
In the previous years of war, Davish, who is Sunni, returned to his village of
Raza to live side by side again with Shiites. This time, "it's very difficult
to return," he said. "You should be a Hawthi, or you will be killed."
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