When might the next Mersenne Prime be discovered?
I have done a simplistic spreadsheet based on the Search Status statistics page
on the website. I looked at the progress between Sept. 28th and Oct 29th and
used this as a basis of calculation.
I am not a statistician and also I realise that GIMPS resources get allocated
differently as time goes along. Not to mention extra volunteers joining the
project and also availability of faster processors!
Anyway, assuming the status quo, it seems we have a bit over 50% probability of
finding the next one within five years. I guess that means a 100% chance over
the next 10 years. Well, I did say I was not a statistician!
Better than I was expecting but I am wondering if things might get even more
exponential fairly soon and GIMPS may start chasing a rapidly disappearing
shadow! Hopefully technological development will keep pace with the ever more
demanding task!
Summary from spreadsheet below:
Expected Discovered
Range New Primes New Primes
Low High Sept 28th After 5 years
0 15,300,000 0 0
15,300,000 17,850,000 0.0003 0.0003
17,850,000 20,400,000 0.0024 0.0024
20,400,000 25,350,000 0.01 0.01
25,350,000 30,150,000 0.02 0.02
30,150,000 35,100,000 0.04 0.04
35,100,000 40,250,000 0.16 0.16
40,250,000 50,000,000 0.56 0.23
50,000,000 59,400,000 0.44 0.07
59,400,000 69,100,000 0.39 0.02
69,100,000 79,300,000 0.36 0.02
Total 1.99 0.5725
Regards
Andy Roland
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