Untuk yang masih merokok..Dan di Indonesia penyakit TBC itu masih banyak
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Web address:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/10/
111004221116.htm
Smoking Could Lead to 40 Million Excess Tuberculosis Deaths by 2050
ScienceDaily (Oct. 7, 2011) Between 2010 and 2050, smoking could be
responsible for 40 million excess deaths from tuberculosis (TB), according to
research published on the British Medical Journal website.
The study, led Dr Sanjay Basu from the University of California, used a
mathematical model to determine the effect of smoking on future tuberculosis
rates. The research finds that because smoking increases the risk of
contracting TB, there will be 18 million more cases worldwide between 2010 and
2050.
Once smokers develop the disease, they are more likely to die from it, meaning
that smoking can single-handedly undermine the Millennium Development Goal to
reduce TB mortality by half between 1990 and 2015, say the authors. They add,
however, that "aggressive tobacco control could avert millions of deaths from
tuberculosis.
It is established, say the authors, that smoking tobacco is a TB risk factor.
They add that nearly one fifth of the world's population smokes and that most
cigarettes are smoked in countries with high TB prevalence and where the
tobacco industry has expanded its market. Given this, the authors wanted to
predict how much impact smoking will have on future TB rates.
The research team developed a mathematical model to investigate the issue.
Similar models have previously been used for HIV, TB detection systems and drug
resistance, but not smoking.
In their analysis, the authors found that smoking may have a substantial impact
on future TB rates because a moderate increase in individual risk translates
into a large population-level risk because so many people smoke.
The results show that from 2010 to 2050 worldwide smoking could lead to 40
million excess TB deaths (from 61 to 101 million). They also conclude that if
current smoking trends continue, the number of excess TB cases could rise from
256 to 274 million -- 18 million new cases in total.
Furthermore, the authors found that the number of people with current TB
infections may be falsely reduced by smoking. This is because smoking can kill
so many people with TB that the number of people living with TB is reduced by
smoking, even though smoking also causes a rise in new cases.
According to Basu's model the African, Eastern Mediterranean and Southeast
Asian regions would experience the greatest increase in new TB cases
attributable to smoking.
The authors argue that "aggressively lowering the prevalence of tobacco smoking
could reduce smoking attributable deaths from tuberculosis by 27 million by
2050."
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Story Source:
The above story is reprinted (with editorial adaptations by ScienceDaily
staff) from materials provided by BMJ-British Medical Journal, via EurekAlert!,
a service of AAAS.
Journal Reference:
S. Basu, D. Stuckler, A. Bitton, S. A. Glantz. Projected effects of tobacco
smoking on worldwide tuberculosis control: mathematical modelling analysis.
BMJ, 2011; 343 (oct04 1): d5506 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.d5506
Need to cite this story in your essay, paper, or report? Use one of the
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BMJ-British Medical Journal (2011, October 7). Smoking could lead to 40 million
excess tuberculosis deaths by 2050. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 9, 2011,
from http://www.sciencedaily.com /releases/2011/10/111004221116.htm
Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.
Disclaimer: This article is not intended to provide medical advice, diagnosis
or treatment. Views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of
ScienceDaily or its staff.
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