Greece/Turkey
GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Greco-Turkish Dispute Threatens to Deepen
Fissures in NATO
March 30, 1999
SUMMARY
Turkey has alleged that Greek air defense radar systems locked on to a
Turkish fighter aircraft earlier this month, nearly causing an
international
incident. Turkey warned Greece that a repeat of the incident would be
answered with a Turkish attack. While relations between Turkey and
Greece have been contentious for some time, the timing of this particular
incident is cause for concern, given the current situation in the
Balkans.
ANALYSIS
On March 29, the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet reported an incident that
took place earlier this month between Greece and Turkey. Turkey claimed
that at 0030 GMT on March 19 one of its F-16 fighter aircraft flying in
international airspace was illuminated by Greek radar. Turkey stated that
the radar signal originated from a missile site on the island of Limnos.
According to the report in Hurriyet, when the pilot realized the radar was
tracking him he radioed for instructions and was told to return to base.
Turkey later sent Greece a warning stating that pilots would be instructed
to destroy missile sites in the future if they were tracked by air defense
radar. The report in Hurriyet claimed that the two countries had nearly
gone to war over the incident.
Relations between Turkey and Greece have been simmering for some time
now, having been on the verge of armed conflict more than once in the
past few years over the location of their border in the Aegean Sea. What
makes this latest incident noteworthy is the timing of the incident in
relation
to the crisis unfolding in the Balkans. While both nations are members of
NATO, Turkey has committed aircraft to the bombing campaign in
support of co- religionists in Kosovo, whereas Greece recently voiced its
opposition to NATO's military action. On March 26, Greek government
spokesman Yanis Nicolau said, "It is time to return to political
discussions
to find a political solution for Kosovo and to end the bombings." He
added
that his country indicated its position to NATO clearly and that "it was
not
alone in calling for [a] halt to the air raids."
Another notable opponent to military action against Serbia is Russia, with
whom Greece has become quite friendly. Russia has provided training for
Greek pilots, and is selling Greece S-300 surface-to-air (SAM) missiles
for deployment on behalf of Greek- dominated Cyprus. The planned sale
of the S-300 missiles to Cyprus nearly sparked a war between Greece
and Turkey, as Ankara vowed to destroy them before they could be
deployed. Additionally, earlier this year the U.S. accused Greece of
having
supplied the Russians with NATO aircraft jamming codes. These codes
would enable Russia to jam weapons guidance systems on NATO aircraft.
While this allegation has yet to be proven, the mere fact that NATO
secrets may have been compromised certainly casts doubt on Greek
commitment to the West.
This latest incident between Turkey and Greece exposes what is perhaps
the deepest fracture within NATO. Although NATO officials continue to
affirm that the organization is of one mind concerning military action in
the
Balkans, Stratfor believes this may not be the case. Greece is not
comfortable with a war on behalf of a Moslem population to its north -- a
potential ally of the Turks. Turkey, in turn, has apparently seized on
Greek
opposition to NATO action over Kosovo to push for U.S., European, and
NATO support for Turkey's side of the feud. Publicizing a Greek action
that threatened the stability of NATO just as the organization was
preparing for action against Yugoslavia may be a Turkish attempt to win
points with the West, but it also reminds Russia of the powerful lever it
has
against NATO. Russia has used that lever before through the Cyprus
missile sale, and given the current state of affairs in Kosovo, Russia and
the Serbs will no doubt want to pry at this fracture in NATO's armor
some
more. 