> With less than 50 tiles, you are getting close to the territory where the move plus the five plies could conceivably use up (1+5) x 7 = 42 tiles - so you want to switch to Many plies. The more tiles in the bag, the more sims are needed - but I reckon 3000 sims is sufficient for most cases. >
I have found the "many" plies simulation near the end of game to be misleading. I suppose the reason is that it doesn't use the end game solver, which the Championship player does. For example in this move which Jason posted on his blog: http://www.cross-tables.com/annotated.php?u=1696#23, a many plies sim thinks that (H)AIR will win you the game 6% of the time. But the championship player always picks I(H)RAM to block the threat of AU(T)UNITE while scoring decent points (at least that's why i think it's choosing that move). Sometimes, though, the championship players choices are wildly different after multiple sims of the same position. How do other people compute their equity losses in these cases? Please just point me to previous posts if I am being repetitious... i just joined this group. thanks, Eugene d'Eon
