On Wednesday, November 22, 2017 at 3:30:09 PM UTC, [email protected] wrote:
> Hi,my name is Knut von Walter.In order to progress in my understanding of 
> Qubes OS, I am looking for members of the Qubes-community in 
> Munich-Bavaria-Germany. Thank you. Best of best Knut von Walter

If you look here, you can see how many people who use Qubes, based on unique IP 
addresses https://www.qubes-os.org/statistics/
Only the Tor IP's may be more of the same people, so ignore those. In addition, 
people may update Qubes while out in the wild, i.e. while on company, school, 
or if using VPN on. Basically, it's a rough statistic regarding how many people 
use Qubes. 

However, what the statistics does provide, is that no more than the maximum can 
exist. And this information is relevant to your question. 

Currently there is probably some 25.000 Qubes users, probably less, given the 
laptops that move abouts and update on different non-Tor IP's. 

It's probably not proper to take the German population, and devide by the world 
population, to find out the ratio, and transfer this ratio to the 25.000 Qubes 
users. This is because culture, and mouth to mouth recommendations, 
infrastructure like technical security universities, companies, etc. may spread 
Qubes in different and various populations across the world. 
However its given that Germany is more focused on security than some other 
western countries out there, so the ratio may be a bit higher than the average 
world ratio. 

Lets crack some numbers. Data is just roughly accurate, give or take some 
millions or source update delays, wiki use controversy, etc.. But it should be 
accurate enough to get a useful conclusion. We're not trying to split hairs 
after all.

- Data -
"The world population was estimated to have reached 7.6 billion as of October 
2017" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

Germany Population 2017: 82,155,210
http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/germany-population/

Munich  1,330,440
Same link source as German population, just scroll down.

Qubes users: ~ 25.000 
https://www.qubes-os.org/statistics/

- Analysis -  
Step 1,A)
82M German pop. divided by 7.600M world pop. = 0,0107 (or 1,07 %).

Step 1,B)
1,330M Munich pop. divided by 7.600M world pop. = 0,000175 (or 0,0175 %).

---- 

Step 2,A) 
25.000 Qubes users multiplied by German/world population ratio 0,0107 = 267,5 
German Qubes users. 

Step 2,B) 
25.000 Qubes users multiplied by Munich/world population ratio 0,000175 = 4,3 
Munich Qubes users. 


- Conclusion - 
This means, in a perfect square, evenly distributed scenario, there are at 
average some 267,5 Qubes users in all of Germany, and some 4,3 Qubes users in 
Munich specifically. However, keep in mind, this is evenly distributed. Other 
factors, such as culture, universities, companies, mouth to mouth, and so on, 
may change how even the distribution is. As such, you may for example be the 
only one in Munich to use Qubes, or perhaps, there are 10 others besides you in 
Munich. Similar, there may be 500 in German, or maybe only 10 QUbes users in 
Germany. 

- Perspective, a small extra study - 
However, we can make a logical deduction from our little inductive research 
above. Deductively, we can assume that because Germans are subjectively known t 
be more keen on security and privacy than some other western countries, or most 
countries in the world. And because Germany is one of the leading country in 
some technologies and science. It's not unlikely to think that Germany might 
have a somewhat higher distribution of Qubes users, compared to elsewhere. 

For example, it may be assumed that Germany then have 300? or maybe 700? Qubes 
users (up from 267,5), it's a wild guess. At this point, it becomes calculated 
guess-work. But you can still estimate the likelihood of how likely your guess 
is.

However, keep in mind, a slightly bigger likelihood of more Qubes users in 
Germany, does not translate into many more Qubes users in Munich. Germany is 
about 88 times bigger in population than Munich is, so for every 88 extra Qubes 
user in Germany, there is only 1 extra in Munich, if evenly distributed. 
However, if you got universities, privacy advocated companies, or just plain 
lucky to have people interested in Qubes to spread mouth to mouth in Munich or 
near Munich, then Munich may have a bigger ratio as well. 

So, your take away, considering so few of the 25.000 Qubes users actually post 
on these e-mail thread / forums, it can be "assumed" that some just read 
without posting or rarely posting. However, many more likely don't read these 
e-mail thread / forums much or at all. This is without considering there are 
other Qubes platforms too, like the Reddit one.

In other words, even if its evenly distributed, and there are 4,3 Qubes users 
in Munich alone, or even if your lucky, and the distribution is affected by 
factors that spread Qubes in Munich, then maybe there are some more, but its 
probably hardly record breaking. Maybe 10 max is a good guess? 

So, you're looking for 10 people, out of the 25.000 Qubes users. That's 
10/25.000 = 0,0004 (or 0,04%). And we're being generous on the Munich pop. here.

That means, out of 100 people posting here, you may probably, at maximum and if 
lucky, only find 1/0,004 = 250, that is, 1 person from Munch, out of every 250 
people posting here on these forums.

I'm not good with remembering names, but I hardly see that many people posting 
here. Perhaps there are that many? But the liklihood of you finding one of the 
other few hypothesized to exist Munich Qubes users here, you will probably have 
to be quite lucky. 

The odds of that happening, can't be calculated without some related data. But 
subjectively, I think it can be deduced to be quite unlikely. 


- Quality check -
For good orders sake, lets ensure the numbers are correct by reverse 
calculation. 7600M world population, divided by 1,330 Munich population. That 
means, the world is 5.714,28 times bigger than the Munich population. In other 
words, if we calculate 5714,28 with the 4,3 Munich Qubes users. It becomes 
24.571,42. Which is a little depreciated from the 25.000 total Qubes numbers 
(devil is in the details), however, it shows you that by reverse calculation, 
we reach full circle back to where we started. In other words, you now got a 
full circle perspective on what to expect regarding finding fellow local Qubes 
users. Albeit, the numbers are evenly squared in a perfect distributed world, 
you may include factors, like privacy minded universities, or companies, that 
operate in Munich, or something like that. But keep it as calculative as 
possible. 

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