Mike : Are you sure you want to go with a static model ? How about a model based on 2 different factors , with the static model as a sort of baseline ? ( 1 ) That is, and I don't know IF this can be quantified in any meaningful way, but what is the potential of each candidate's ideas ? That is, think of politics as war. Who is the best general ? Who can outthink the others best ? Who can come up with the best strategy and make it work ? A corollary is to think of politics as a free-for-all kick boxing match. If that is what things are like on more than one level, who stands the best chance ? Nixon was good at this sort of thing. In a way you could say something similar for GWB and for his daddy in 88. ( 2 ) Momentum. Who is the best "jockey" when things start to break one way or the other ? Or to switch metaphor, who can think on his / her feet the best ? These were RR and Clinton strengths. But you're absolutely right about RP and Goldwater numbers. Even that might be optimistic. He might get McGovern numbers. My thoughts on the subject Billy ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12/23/2011 11:55:16 A.M. Pacific Standard Time, [email protected] writes:
Just as a side-note, if I were a gambling man and had to rank electability of the GOP candidates vs. Obama, it would probably be as follows: 1. Jon Huntsman 50-50 2. Mitt Romney 50-50 3. Rick Perry 45-55 4. Newt Gingrich 42-58 5. Rick Santorum 40-60 6. Michele Bachmann 40-60 7. Ron Paul 35-65 I looked at elections since 1964 to get these numbers. Paul would get Goldwater-level support, Santorum, Bachman, and Gingrich would pull Bob Dole numbers, and Perry could pull together a W-like coalition. I think Romney and Huntsman would run even with or just slightly ahead of Obama right out of the gate, as they've been careful about not alienating moderates. This election will be all about moderates and independents, which Ron Paul would never be able to gain a plurality of, as he can't even grab enough of his own party. -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
