This seems like a sensible analysis Mike, and appreciated. In the short term, I would rank Romney at 50-50, but give Huntsman slightly less because of the electorate's lack of experience with him. With time, that disadvantage would go away.
Chris -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Mike Gonzalez Sent: Friday, December 23, 2011 12:55 PM To: Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community Subject: [RC] Re: Jonah Goldberg Re: Ron Paul newsletters --see readers' comments Just as a side-note, if I were a gambling man and had to rank electability of the GOP candidates vs. Obama, it would probably be as follows: 1. Jon Huntsman 50-50 2. Mitt Romney 50-50 3. Rick Perry 45-55 4. Newt Gingrich 42-58 5. Rick Santorum 40-60 6. Michele Bachmann 40-60 7. Ron Paul 35-65 I looked at elections since 1964 to get these numbers. Paul would get Goldwater-level support, Santorum, Bachman, and Gingrich would pull Bob Dole numbers, and Perry could pull together a W-like coalition. I think Romney and Huntsman would run even with or just slightly ahead of Obama right out of the gate, as they've been careful about not alienating moderates. This election will be all about moderates and independents, which Ron Paul would never be able to gain a plurality of, as he can't even grab enough of his own party. -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
