And so it begins. Going to be a rough decade.... E
Begin forwarded message: > From: New America's Economic Growth Program <[email protected]> > Subject: China's Boom Is Over, But Beijing Will Avoid Bust > Date: May 15, 2014 at 7:19:31 AM PDT > To: [email protected] > Reply-To: [email protected] > > > > WORLD ECONOMIC ROUNDTABLE / ECONOMIC GROWTH PROGRAM > China's Boom Is Over, But Beijing Will Avoid Bust > by Jay Pelosky > With its rapid debt explosion and inflated property market, China has moved > to the center of concerns about the world economy. > > In a new research report, World Economic Roundtable member Jay Pelosky argues > that China's property bubble is real but that we should not expect a > U.S.-style financial crisis. Expect instead a prolonged Japan-style workout > that will act as a "wet blanket that will damp the world's growth and > inflation outlook for years to come." The Chinese government, Pelosky notes, > has the tools to handle the unwinding of China's debt build-up, but it may > have more trouble in dealing with the country's pollution and corruption > problems - which may actually pose greater challenges for China's leadership. > > Building off a recent research trip to China, Pelosky, a principal at J2Z > Advisory, explains that the 2009 stimulus is now viewed internally as a major > strategic mistake. Not only did it result in a huge misallocation of capital > and an explosion of corruption, but it also represented a missed opportunity > to begin the process of rebalancing - the pain of which could have been > blamed on the U.S. financial crash. As a result, China now faces a much more > difficult economic, environmental, and political landscape with which to > pursue needed reforms. > > In Pelosky's view, change is inevitable but a Big Bang reform or crisis is > unlikely. He writes in the Financial Times, "China will not be the catalyst > that alters the current low volatility asset scape; reform and rebalancing > will be conducted Chinese style: crossing the river by feeling the stones." > > Read the research report, "China -- Don't Drop the Ball" published by Itau > Global Connections. > > Read the full op-ed in the Financial Times. > > MORE ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH PROGRAM > > New America's Economic Growth Program aims to chart a path through the > post-bubble world economy by advancing pro-growth policy reforms and bringing > innovative solutions to the forefront of public debate. > > > Jay Pelosky > is principal at J2Z Advisory, LLC, and a founding member of the World > Economic Roundtable. > RELATED RESEARCH > > Building a Bridge to a Tri-Polar World Economy > by Jay Pelosky > > The US Economy After the Great Recession > by Sherle R. Schwenninger and Samuel Sherraden > > MEDIA INFORMATION > > For media inquiries, please contact Jenny Mallamo at [email protected] > > Visit us on the web at growth.newamerica.net > > Follow us on twitter at @economicgrowth > > > > > > > Photo/Flickr: Yuxuan Wang > Forward this email > > This email was sent to [email protected] by [email protected] > | > Update Profile/Email Address | Instant removal with SafeUnsubscribe(tm) | > Privacy Policy. > New America Foundation's Economic Growth and American Strategy Programs | > 1899 L Street, Suite 400 | Washington | DC | 20036 -- -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
