I’m doing well. Really enjoy family time — and thinking about how to redesign society for greater resilience. We should talk soon!
Sent from my iPhone > On Mar 27, 2020, at 14:17, Chris Hahn <c...@2chahn.com> wrote: > > > Ernie, > > Our governor is doing a good job. We are the next-largest state, after CA. > We have 108 confirmed total cases, but exponential growth is really going > strong. We are going to shelter in place. It will help. I was very > impressed by the SF mayor. She got way ahead of almost anyone else. > > Connie is working full time, but since she is over 60 she is only dealing > with “well” patients. We have both been in the room with a guy who tested > positive, but that was 2 weeks ago. > > All in all, the slowdown is treating us well. How about you and yours? > > Chris > > From: radicalcentrism@googlegroups.com <radicalcentrism@googlegroups.com> On > Behalf Of Ernest Prabhakar > Sent: Friday, March 27, 2020 1:00 PM > To: Centroids Discussions <RadicalCentrism@googlegroups.com> > Subject: Re: [RC] BCG: 6 steps to sustainably flatten the ECONOMIC > coronavirus curve > > Hi Chris, > > Thanks. We are fortunate here in the Bay Area that our local leaders seem to > have gotten ahead of the issue. > > How are things in Montana? > > — Ernie P. > > > On Mar 25, 2020, at 8:02 AM, Chris Hahn <c...@2chahn.com> wrote: > > These solutions will, of course, be technically, socially, and politically > difficult. For the sake of our economy, the livelihoods of millions, and the > health of our society, we have to get started. Winter will come again, and we > must begin preparing now. > The question is, can this country execute with the mixed messages we are > getting from our leaders. Some are seemingly spot-on; other’s may be > exacerbating the problem with careless words and ideas. > > From: radicalcentrism@googlegroups.com <radicalcentrism@googlegroups.com> On > Behalf Of Centroids > Sent: Tuesday, March 24, 2020 11:36 PM > To: Centroids Discussions <RadicalCentrism@googlegroups.com> > Subject: [RC] BCG: 6 steps to sustainably flatten the ECONOMIC coronavirus > curve > > Commentary: 6 steps to sustainably flatten the coronavirus curve > https://fortune.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-covid-19-flatten-curve-solution/ > (via Instapaper) > We are in the midst of an unprecedented crisis. It started as a health > crisis, within days became a real economic crisis, and is now on a swift path > to becoming a massive fiscal challenge, as well. Spring may soon arrive on > the calendar, but as a society—increasingly alone and stressed—we feel as if > we are in the middle of winter. > While reserve banks and governments are reacting swiftly to try to stabilize > the economy and financial markets, many government moves weren’t quick enough > to slow infections of the coronavirus, which causes the COVID-19 disease. > Unfortunately, efforts to stabilize the economy will be enormously costly > because of that delay. > Without a vaccine for 12 to 18 months, we are facing not just a short-term > crisis but a massive ongoing challenge both to protect health and preserve > the economy—and the businesses and workers depending on it. The challenges we > face are daunting. There are potential ways to control the virus without > shuttering the economy, but we must begin working on them immediately. > The question that matters right now > > To date, as the coronavirus has spread around the world, one question has > been top of mind: How much can we flatten the curve of infection rates? > We have all seen the charts that show the value of spreading out infections > in order to keep the peak within the manageable capacity of our health > system. In Wuhan, China, and Italy—and soon parts of the U.S.—we’re seeing > the enormous human toll when sickness exceeds what health systems can handle. > Most of us look with great respect at how quickly China was able to add > hospitals and health system capacity. But it will be challenging to replicate > this feat all around a world often filled with constraints on cost, > capability, and governance. > For the next 30 to 90 days, the degree to which we can flatten the curve is > the most important challenge, and we’re seeing countries, U.S. states, and > smaller communities start to respond aggressively. Unfortunately, many of > these responses are happening about two weeks late, but they are still > critical in limiting the impact of the disease and saving the lives of those > most vulnerable to it. > The most obvious efforts underway involve social distancing, and every day > brings more examples: school cancelations, remote working, sports leagues and > commercial travel shutting down, Broadway going dark, bars and restaurants > closing. This is painful on many levels, from the elderly left alone to > students out of class to enormous economic damage. But we have no choice, > particularly where the coronavirus has spread and where insufficient testing > limits our ability to measure and isolate the problem. > The question that will soon matter most > > If we succeed in flattening the curve, and I believe to some extent we will, > we will be faced with an even more daunting question in 30 to 90 days that we > have to begin addressing right away: How will we continue to flatten the > curve, not for the next two or three months, but for nine months to a year or > even longer? > The total economic distress from one to three months of social distancing > will be enormous, but we can manage it—especially in richer countries. It > will require bailouts and support for workers, zero to negative interest > rates, and massive injections of cash into the economy. > But the cost of 12 months of aggressive social distancing is hard to fathom. > How do we support airlines for a year of almost no passengers? What is the > societal cost of keeping children out of school for that long? What happens > to the service economy, even as digitization grows, when it offers the bulk > of jobs? And how can this possibly be affordable when tax revenues are > collapsing at the same time? > We need to limit the spread of the virus, but if the cost is an economic > cancer, eating away at many industries and undermining financial markets and > public sector finances around the world, how can we bear this? Right now, we > have to focus on flattening the curve as much as we can, but very soon we > must shift our focus to how we flatten it for a sustained period without > destroying major parts of the economy in the process. There are potential > answers, but we have to start now to make them workable. > Six steps to flattening the curve sustainably > > All the business leaders I know are focused on supporting their people, > sustaining business in the short term, and protecting the balance sheet. A > few, particularly in China, are thinking about the rebound as their economy > starts to come back, rethinking their business models for a different world. > Governments are trying to ramp up health care capacity as rapidly as > possible, protect their economies with both fiscal and monetary levers, and > get their citizens tested and protected quickly. Given challenges in the U.S. > health care system, there is now a huge effort to help citizens avoid the > direct and indirect costs of this illness. > These are all essential actions, but not enough. We need to mobilize now on > six fronts to flatten the curve in a sustainable way. Some of this is > U.S.-specific, but most applies around the world. There will be many ideas > about how to do this, but I hope these can serve as a starting point: > Dramatically accelerate preparedness > > We need to massively expand and speed up the testing process and provide > related kits and supplies, as well as medical devices needed for care, > protective equipment for health care workers, and expanded facilities for > treating the ill. We should also invest in and distribute simple digital > tools that can help people decide when to seek care and when to stay home. > Over the next 30 to 45 days, we have to leverage our knowhow to spur rapid > investment in building capabilities at whatever the cost. > Change the social distancing paradigm > > Our goal should be to get most workers and students back up and running, > ideally within 45 to 90 days. Of course, this will require new practices such > as careful hand washing, no handshaking, and other protective activities. > This will also likely require some measures based on risk stratification. > We know some of the risk factors now, such as age, comorbidities, and > immunological compromise. With careful epidemiological analysis and modern > analytical techniques, we should be able to create risk stratification > methodologies to allow lower risk individuals to get back to work while > responsibly decreasing the risk to themselves and society. > This strategy will not be easy to implement, but it’s an essential part of > restarting the economy without ramping up the infection curve beyond health > system capacity. It will allow us, over time, to build more herd immunity > across the broader population and enable much of society and the economy to > be operating at a reasonable level. > Change the operating model > > We have to accelerate the use of digital and mobile technologies to make > remote work and other activities easier. But more broadly, we will need to > adapt to a more intrusive environment. Beyond the urgent need for greatly > expanded testing, we must begin taking temperatures before individuals enter > a school or place of work, go to a restaurant or other public space, or get > on an airplane or train. We should use artificial intelligence to notify > at-risk individuals to self-quarantine, so that we avoid outbreaks while > respecting personal privacy. > In the next couple of months, we should also work aggressively to develop an > antibody test for the coronavirus, allowing us to see if people have become > immune to it. Knowing that people are no longer at risk for getting sick from > or spreading the virus will give us an enormous advantage in reintroducing > people to the workforce. > Adapt regulatory and support frameworks > > Let’s give organizations the right to protect their businesses, workers, > customers, and students with testing, as well as the obligation to require > at-risk people to stay home. We should protect workers and parents with sick > leave support and medical care when they or their loved ones get sick. And we > have to create protection from coronavirus-related lawsuits for those medical > professionals acting in good faith. > Invest in and support innovators > > We will need a multipronged set of tools, including the development of > diagnostics, antivirals, and vaccines, and we have to invest aggressively in > capacity to deploy therapeutics at scale before we can be certain they will > work. > The economic assurances we provide to qualifying R&D companies must come with > assurances of open intellectual property sharing. And we must be prepared > with our therapeutics to respond quickly if there are further mutations in > the virus, which will require adaptive frameworks. > Increase communications dramatically > > We need consistent, coherent, unified leadership that brings communities > together and highlights what is required to navigate this enormous challenge. > People need clear communication about what it means to travel and work > safely, as well as how to engage in more careful social interactions and how > to support at-risk populations who are still socially distanced, starting > with our elderly. > In normal times, we would take years to debate some of these options, but we > don’t have that kind of time. While we are focusing on the unprecedented and > acute situation in front of us, we need to start thinking about how we will > economically navigate the critical phase that follows the surge of cases we > are about to get, as well as how to accelerate progress to our end game—when > we have effective therapies, vaccines, and herd immunity to protect us from > this new and dangerous novel virus. > These solutions will, of course, be technically, socially, and politically > difficult. For the sake of our economy, the livelihoods of millions, and the > health of our society, we have to get started. Winter will come again, and we > must begin preparing now. > Rich Lesser is CEO of Boston Consulting Group. > More opinion in Fortune: > > —The next Great Recession has already begun > —Combating coronavirus starts with keeping health workers well > —Want to solve America’s problems? Start with broadband > —Should consumers be wary of Apple’s heartbeat monitoring app? > —Listen to Leadership Next, a Fortune podcast examining the evolving role of > CEO > —WATCH: CEO of Canada’s biggest bank on the keys to leading through the > coronavirusListen to our audio briefing, Fortune 500 Daily > > > Sent from my iPhone > > > -- > -- > Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community > <RadicalCentrism@googlegroups.com> > Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism > Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org > > --- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to radicalcentrism+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/RadicalCentrism/AC614511-D1A6-4F4A-9C85-04FCBAD34467%40radicalcentrism.org. > -- > -- > Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community > <RadicalCentrism@googlegroups.com> > Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism > Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org > > --- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to radicalcentrism+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/RadicalCentrism/018101d6047d%240fe160a0%242fa421e0%24%402chahn.com. -- -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <RadicalCentrism@googlegroups.com> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to radicalcentrism+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/RadicalCentrism/6E0FEC5E-9608-4632-98A5-3C790A99DA80%40radicalcentrism.org.
