Hi Ernie, Can you give me a call or check your Messenger inbox? ; )
Thanks, // Lennart Sent from my iPhone > On Mar 27, 2020, at 4:55 PM, Centroids <drer...@radicalcentrism.org> wrote: > > I’m doing well. Really enjoy family time — and thinking about how to > redesign society for greater resilience. We should talk soon! > > Sent from my iPhone > >>> On Mar 27, 2020, at 14:17, Chris Hahn <c...@2chahn.com> wrote: >>> >> >> Ernie, >> >> Our governor is doing a good job. We are the next-largest state, after CA. >> We have 108 confirmed total cases, but exponential growth is really going >> strong. We are going to shelter in place. It will help. I was very >> impressed by the SF mayor. She got way ahead of almost anyone else. >> >> Connie is working full time, but since she is over 60 she is only dealing >> with “well” patients. We have both been in the room with a guy who tested >> positive, but that was 2 weeks ago. >> >> All in all, the slowdown is treating us well. How about you and yours? >> >> Chris >> >> From: radicalcentrism@googlegroups.com <radicalcentrism@googlegroups.com> On >> Behalf Of Ernest Prabhakar >> Sent: Friday, March 27, 2020 1:00 PM >> To: Centroids Discussions <RadicalCentrism@googlegroups.com> >> Subject: Re: [RC] BCG: 6 steps to sustainably flatten the ECONOMIC >> coronavirus curve >> >> Hi Chris, >> >> Thanks. We are fortunate here in the Bay Area that our local leaders seem >> to have gotten ahead of the issue. >> >> How are things in Montana? >> >> — Ernie P. >> >> >> On Mar 25, 2020, at 8:02 AM, Chris Hahn <c...@2chahn.com> wrote: >> >> These solutions will, of course, be technically, socially, and politically >> difficult. For the sake of our economy, the livelihoods of millions, and the >> health of our society, we have to get started. Winter will come again, and >> we must begin preparing now. >> The question is, can this country execute with the mixed messages we are >> getting from our leaders. Some are seemingly spot-on; other’s may be >> exacerbating the problem with careless words and ideas. >> >> From: radicalcentrism@googlegroups.com <radicalcentrism@googlegroups.com> On >> Behalf Of Centroids >> Sent: Tuesday, March 24, 2020 11:36 PM >> To: Centroids Discussions <RadicalCentrism@googlegroups.com> >> Subject: [RC] BCG: 6 steps to sustainably flatten the ECONOMIC coronavirus >> curve >> >> Commentary: 6 steps to sustainably flatten the coronavirus curve >> https://fortune.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-covid-19-flatten-curve-solution/ >> (via Instapaper) >> We are in the midst of an unprecedented crisis. It started as a health >> crisis, within days became a real economic crisis, and is now on a swift >> path to becoming a massive fiscal challenge, as well. Spring may soon arrive >> on the calendar, but as a society—increasingly alone and stressed—we feel as >> if we are in the middle of winter. >> While reserve banks and governments are reacting swiftly to try to stabilize >> the economy and financial markets, many government moves weren’t quick >> enough to slow infections of the coronavirus, which causes the COVID-19 >> disease. Unfortunately, efforts to stabilize the economy will be enormously >> costly because of that delay. >> Without a vaccine for 12 to 18 months, we are facing not just a short-term >> crisis but a massive ongoing challenge both to protect health and preserve >> the economy—and the businesses and workers depending on it. The challenges >> we face are daunting. There are potential ways to control the virus without >> shuttering the economy, but we must begin working on them immediately. >> The question that matters right now >> >> To date, as the coronavirus has spread around the world, one question has >> been top of mind: How much can we flatten the curve of infection rates? >> We have all seen the charts that show the value of spreading out infections >> in order to keep the peak within the manageable capacity of our health >> system. In Wuhan, China, and Italy—and soon parts of the U.S.—we’re seeing >> the enormous human toll when sickness exceeds what health systems can >> handle. Most of us look with great respect at how quickly China was able to >> add hospitals and health system capacity. But it will be challenging to >> replicate this feat all around a world often filled with constraints on >> cost, capability, and governance. >> For the next 30 to 90 days, the degree to which we can flatten the curve is >> the most important challenge, and we’re seeing countries, U.S. states, and >> smaller communities start to respond aggressively. Unfortunately, many of >> these responses are happening about two weeks late, but they are still >> critical in limiting the impact of the disease and saving the lives of those >> most vulnerable to it. >> The most obvious efforts underway involve social distancing, and every day >> brings more examples: school cancelations, remote working, sports leagues >> and commercial travel shutting down, Broadway going dark, bars and >> restaurants closing. This is painful on many levels, from the elderly left >> alone to students out of class to enormous economic damage. But we have no >> choice, particularly where the coronavirus has spread and where insufficient >> testing limits our ability to measure and isolate the problem. >> The question that will soon matter most >> >> If we succeed in flattening the curve, and I believe to some extent we will, >> we will be faced with an even more daunting question in 30 to 90 days that >> we have to begin addressing right away: How will we continue to flatten the >> curve, not for the next two or three months, but for nine months to a year >> or even longer? >> The total economic distress from one to three months of social distancing >> will be enormous, but we can manage it—especially in richer countries. It >> will require bailouts and support for workers, zero to negative interest >> rates, and massive injections of cash into the economy. >> But the cost of 12 months of aggressive social distancing is hard to fathom. >> How do we support airlines for a year of almost no passengers? What is the >> societal cost of keeping children out of school for that long? What happens >> to the service economy, even as digitization grows, when it offers the bulk >> of jobs? And how can this possibly be affordable when tax revenues are >> collapsing at the same time? >> We need to limit the spread of the virus, but if the cost is an economic >> cancer, eating away at many industries and undermining financial markets and >> public sector finances around the world, how can we bear this? Right now, we >> have to focus on flattening the curve as much as we can, but very soon we >> must shift our focus to how we flatten it for a sustained period without >> destroying major parts of the economy in the process. There are potential >> answers, but we have to start now to make them workable. >> Six steps to flattening the curve sustainably >> >> All the business leaders I know are focused on supporting their people, >> sustaining business in the short term, and protecting the balance sheet. A >> few, particularly in China, are thinking about the rebound as their economy >> starts to come back, rethinking their business models for a different world. >> Governments are trying to ramp up health care capacity as rapidly as >> possible, protect their economies with both fiscal and monetary levers, and >> get their citizens tested and protected quickly. Given challenges in the >> U.S. health care system, there is now a huge effort to help citizens avoid >> the direct and indirect costs of this illness. >> These are all essential actions, but not enough. We need to mobilize now on >> six fronts to flatten the curve in a sustainable way. Some of this is >> U.S.-specific, but most applies around the world. There will be many ideas >> about how to do this, but I hope these can serve as a starting point: >> Dramatically accelerate preparedness >> >> We need to massively expand and speed up the testing process and provide >> related kits and supplies, as well as medical devices needed for care, >> protective equipment for health care workers, and expanded facilities for >> treating the ill. We should also invest in and distribute simple digital >> tools that can help people decide when to seek care and when to stay home. >> Over the next 30 to 45 days, we have to leverage our knowhow to spur rapid >> investment in building capabilities at whatever the cost. >> Change the social distancing paradigm >> >> Our goal should be to get most workers and students back up and running, >> ideally within 45 to 90 days. Of course, this will require new practices >> such as careful hand washing, no handshaking, and other protective >> activities. This will also likely require some measures based on risk >> stratification. >> We know some of the risk factors now, such as age, comorbidities, and >> immunological compromise. With careful epidemiological analysis and modern >> analytical techniques, we should be able to create risk stratification >> methodologies to allow lower risk individuals to get back to work while >> responsibly decreasing the risk to themselves and society. >> This strategy will not be easy to implement, but it’s an essential part of >> restarting the economy without ramping up the infection curve beyond health >> system capacity. It will allow us, over time, to build more herd immunity >> across the broader population and enable much of society and the economy to >> be operating at a reasonable level. >> Change the operating model >> >> We have to accelerate the use of digital and mobile technologies to make >> remote work and other activities easier. But more broadly, we will need to >> adapt to a more intrusive environment. Beyond the urgent need for greatly >> expanded testing, we must begin taking temperatures before individuals enter >> a school or place of work, go to a restaurant or other public space, or get >> on an airplane or train. We should use artificial intelligence to notify >> at-risk individuals to self-quarantine, so that we avoid outbreaks while >> respecting personal privacy. >> In the next couple of months, we should also work aggressively to develop an >> antibody test for the coronavirus, allowing us to see if people have become >> immune to it. Knowing that people are no longer at risk for getting sick >> from or spreading the virus will give us an enormous advantage in >> reintroducing people to the workforce. >> Adapt regulatory and support frameworks >> >> Let’s give organizations the right to protect their businesses, workers, >> customers, and students with testing, as well as the obligation to require >> at-risk people to stay home. We should protect workers and parents with sick >> leave support and medical care when they or their loved ones get sick. And >> we have to create protection from coronavirus-related lawsuits for those >> medical professionals acting in good faith. >> Invest in and support innovators >> >> We will need a multipronged set of tools, including the development of >> diagnostics, antivirals, and vaccines, and we have to invest aggressively in >> capacity to deploy therapeutics at scale before we can be certain they will >> work. >> The economic assurances we provide to qualifying R&D companies must come >> with assurances of open intellectual property sharing. And we must be >> prepared with our therapeutics to respond quickly if there are further >> mutations in the virus, which will require adaptive frameworks. >> Increase communications dramatically >> >> We need consistent, coherent, unified leadership that brings communities >> together and highlights what is required to navigate this enormous >> challenge. People need clear communication about what it means to travel and >> work safely, as well as how to engage in more careful social interactions >> and how to support at-risk populations who are still socially distanced, >> starting with our elderly. >> In normal times, we would take years to debate some of these options, but we >> don’t have that kind of time. While we are focusing on the unprecedented and >> acute situation in front of us, we need to start thinking about how we will >> economically navigate the critical phase that follows the surge of cases we >> are about to get, as well as how to accelerate progress to our end game—when >> we have effective therapies, vaccines, and herd immunity to protect us from >> this new and dangerous novel virus. >> These solutions will, of course, be technically, socially, and politically >> difficult. For the sake of our economy, the livelihoods of millions, and the >> health of our society, we have to get started. Winter will come again, and >> we must begin preparing now. >> Rich Lesser is CEO of Boston Consulting Group. >> More opinion in Fortune: >> >> —The next Great Recession has already begun >> —Combating coronavirus starts with keeping health workers well >> —Want to solve America’s problems? Start with broadband >> —Should consumers be wary of Apple’s heartbeat monitoring app? >> —Listen to Leadership Next, a Fortune podcast examining the evolving role of >> CEO >> —WATCH: CEO of Canada’s biggest bank on the keys to leading through the >> coronavirusListen to our audio briefing, Fortune 500 Daily >> >> >> Sent from my iPhone >> >> >> -- >> -- >> Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community >> <RadicalCentrism@googlegroups.com> >> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism >> Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org >> >> --- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to radicalcentrism+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >> To view this discussion on the web visit >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/RadicalCentrism/AC614511-D1A6-4F4A-9C85-04FCBAD34467%40radicalcentrism.org. >> -- >> -- >> Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community >> <RadicalCentrism@googlegroups.com> >> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism >> Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org >> >> --- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to radicalcentrism+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >> To view this discussion on the web visit >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/RadicalCentrism/018101d6047d%240fe160a0%242fa421e0%24%402chahn.com. > -- > -- > Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community > <RadicalCentrism@googlegroups.com> > Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism > Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org > > --- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to radicalcentrism+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/RadicalCentrism/6E0FEC5E-9608-4632-98A5-3C790A99DA80%40radicalcentrism.org. -- -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <RadicalCentrism@googlegroups.com> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to radicalcentrism+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/RadicalCentrism/6666AA2A-2344-4FA2-885F-58FAA60D0707%40gmail.com.
