I calculate that Belichick's decision to go for it gave us a 70% chance of winning the game. Here's my logic. Indy needed two things to happen for them to win. They needed us not to convert, and they needed to score a touchdown from the30 with 2 minutes and no time outs. Their chances were the product of two probabilities.
1. Chances of stopping the Patriots conversion -- call it 60% 2. Chances of scoring from the 30 with 2 minutes left and no timeouts -- call it 50% (remember all the punting they did that day.) Indy's chances of winning: (60%) * (50%) = 30% Patriots chances = 70%. In addition, I think that Indy had the same 50% chance of getting a touchdown whether they were on our 30 or theirs. If Faulk were 3 feet downfield Belichick is a genius. If Reggie Wayne doesn't make a fingertip catch, Belichick is a genius. If the O-Line doesn't get gashed just when they needed to make a stop, Belichick is a genius. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
