I'm saying that their chances of scoring from the 30 with 2 minutes to go is
50%

and the chances of stopping the Pats was 60%.

So the odds of the Colts winning was 30%.

I'm OK with that.

Ray


On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 8:59 AM, Steve Gendron <[email protected]> wrote:

>  You guys are really drinking the Belichek Kool-aid.  Are you really
> telling me that the chances of Manning scoring from the Colts 30 with no
> time outs are equal to that of them scoring on the Pats 30 under the same
> conditions?  No matter how you slice it, it was a bad call.  It cost the
> Patriots home field advantage in the playoffs, which can be the difference
> in a Superbowl drive.
>
>  ------------------------------
> *From:* [email protected] [mailto:
> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Ray Salemi
> *Sent:* Monday, November 16, 2009 8:45 AM
> *To:* [email protected]
> *Subject:* Re: Football Numbers
>
> Steve O has cleverly summed up my numbers approach
>
> It seems to make sense that the Patriots had a much better chance of making
>> two yards than they had of stopping the Colts.
>>
>
> I bow to his explanatory powers!
>
> >
>


-- 
Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just
12 Weeks"
www.leadingafteralayoff.com

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