Oh, that was painful... I disagree completely that the chances of the Colts scoring a touchdown were the same whether they start at our 30 or their 30. Maybe you can say that the odds of the Patriots getting a first down at 4th and 2, were better than the odds of holding the Colts without scoring a touchdown, but the Colts chances of scoring from our 30 have to be about twice the chance of them scoring from their own 30.
That said, I am less upset at Belichek's call to go for it on 4th and 2 than I am by the confluence of errors at the end of the game that lead to us being in that position in the first place. Oh and by the way, Faulk had possession while he was standing. That was a first down. ________________________________ From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi Sent: Monday, November 16, 2009 7:49 AM To: [email protected] Subject: Football Numbers I calculate that Belichick's decision to go for it gave us a 70% chance of winning the game. Here's my logic. Indy needed two things to happen for them to win. They needed us not to convert, and they needed to score a touchdown from the30 with 2 minutes and no time outs. Their chances were the product of two probabilities. 1. Chances of stopping the Patriots conversion -- call it 60% 2. Chances of scoring from the 30 with 2 minutes left and no timeouts -- call it 50% (remember all the punting they did that day.) Indy's chances of winning: (60%) * (50%) = 30% Patriots chances = 70%. In addition, I think that Indy had the same 50% chance of getting a touchdown whether they were on our 30 or theirs. If Faulk were 3 feet downfield Belichick is a genius. If Reggie Wayne doesn't make a fingertip catch, Belichick is a genius. If the O-Line doesn't get gashed just when they needed to make a stop, Belichick is a genius. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
