We have different views on the individual probabilities. I wasn't following your earlier argument; so I'm sorry if I stepped in.
I'll have to think about this. But I don't have time now. Your logic is flawed as was mine. I just don't have time to prove it now. We're missing some big parts of the equation. ________________________________ From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi Sent: Monday, November 16, 2009 1:45 PM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: you numbers nuts Actually you did the problem wrong, but I'll give you some points for showing your works. Your first step was A = get two yards. If you get the 2 yards then you win the game. There is no need to go to step 2 stopping the colts. So the combination you talked about below was incorrect. You don't multiply them the way you did. The correct way to do this problem is to recognize that the Colts need to do two things to win. Since the Colts need both things, then you can multiply. They need to A = Stop the pats then B=Score A = 60% chance of stopping the pats B =70% chance of scoring (I increased this from my previous calculations) You do A * B for 42% chance of the colts winning. You subtract that from 100% to get 58% of the Pat's winning. On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 1:37 PM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]> wrote: Okay, so the biggest mistake people make in determining probabilities is that they don't add, but rather multiply when interrelated such as this. Thus, if the probability of getting two yards is slightly less than than 50% and the probability of stopping the Colts inside the 30 in 2 minutes is slightly less than 50%, then the probability of success is even further less than 50% overall. It would seem that if you don't get the first thing to happen, then you can get the second thing to happen, but that's not a good overall strategy. If you look at the probability of stopping them after a punt and if you think it is 51%, then you have to go with it. Bellichick made the wrong decision. And it shows. I've moved on. -- Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just 12 Weeks" www.leadingafteralayoff.com --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
