No. My logic is correct.
This is not up for "opinion". It's simply math. You cannot prove it, because you are flat out wrong. On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 1:49 PM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]>wrote: > We have different views on the individual probabilities. I wasn’t > following your earlier argument; so I’m sorry if I stepped in. > > > > I’ll have to think about this. But I don’t have time now. Your logic is > flawed as was mine. I just don’t have time to prove it now. We’re missing > some big parts of the equation. > > > ------------------------------ > > *From:* [email protected] [mailto: > [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Ray Salemi > *Sent:* Monday, November 16, 2009 1:45 PM > *To:* [email protected] > > *Subject:* Re: you numbers nuts > > > > Actually you did the problem wrong, but I'll give you some points for > showing your works. > > > Your first step was A = get two yards. If you get the 2 yards then you win > the game. There is no need to go to step 2 stopping the colts. So the > combination you talked about below was incorrect. You don't multiply them > the way you did. > > > The correct way to do this problem is to recognize that the Colts need to > do two things to win. Since the Colts need both things, then you can > multiply. They need to A = Stop the pats then B=Score > > A = 60% chance of stopping the pats > B =70% chance of scoring (I increased this from my previous calculations) > > You do A * B for 42% chance of the colts winning. You subtract that from > 100% to get 58% of the Pat's winning. > > On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 1:37 PM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]> > wrote: > > Okay, so the biggest mistake people make in determining probabilities is > that they don’t add, but rather multiply when interrelated such as this. > > > > Thus, if the probability of getting two yards is slightly less than than > 50% and the probability of stopping the Colts inside the 30 in 2 minutes is > slightly less than 50%, then the probability of success is even further less > than 50% overall. It would seem that if you don’t get the first thing to > happen, then you can get the second thing to happen, but that’s not a good > overall strategy. > > > > If you look at the probability of stopping them after a punt and if you > think it is 51%, then you have to go with it. > > > > Bellichick made the wrong decision. And it shows. > > > > I’ve moved on. > > > > > > > > > > > -- > Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in > Just 12 Weeks" > www.leadingafteralayoff.com > > > > > > > -- Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just 12 Weeks" www.leadingafteralayoff.com --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
