Okay, so the biggest mistake people make in determining probabilities is that they don't add, but rather multiply when interrelated such as this.
Thus, if the probability of getting two yards is slightly less than than 50% and the probability of stopping the Colts inside the 30 in 2 minutes is slightly less than 50%, then the probability of success is even further less than 50% overall. It would seem that if you don't get the first thing to happen, then you can get the second thing to happen, but that's not a good overall strategy. If you look at the probability of stopping them after a punt and if you think it is 51%, then you have to go with it. Bellichick made the wrong decision. And it shows. I've moved on. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
