What's the probability that Ray sends the same msg a 4th time? ----- Original Message ----- From: [email protected] <[email protected]> To: [email protected] <[email protected]> Sent: Mon Nov 16 14:24:56 2009 Subject: Re: Football Numbers
While I think the probabilities around "the decision" was correct, I defer to Matt's point that everything around the decision was wrong. Belichick had a bad night and I think he cost us the game. On 11/16/09, Steve Gendron <[email protected]> wrote: > However, I did want to point out, that while I am deferring to the odd-god, > in his initial analysis, he said the following: > > "I think that Indy had the same 50% chance of getting a touchdown whether > they were on our 30 or theirs." > I think we can say that this data proves this statement to be wrong. > > ________________________________ > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi > Sent: Monday, November 16, 2009 7:49 AM > To: [email protected] > Subject: Football Numbers > > I calculate that Belichick's decision to go for it gave us a 70% chance of > winning the game. Here's my logic. Indy needed two things to happen for > them to win. They needed us not to convert, and they needed to score a > touchdown from the30 with 2 minutes and no time outs. Their chances were > the product of two probabilities. > > 1. Chances of stopping the Patriots conversion -- call it 60% > 2. Chances of scoring from the 30 with 2 minutes left and no timeouts -- > call it 50% (remember all the punting they did that day.) > > Indy's chances of winning: (60%) * (50%) = 30% > > Patriots chances = 70%. > > In addition, I think that Indy had the same 50% chance of getting a > touchdown whether they were on our 30 or theirs. > > If Faulk were 3 feet downfield Belichick is a genius. If Reggie Wayne > doesn't make a fingertip catch, Belichick is a genius. If the O-Line > doesn't get gashed just when they needed to make a stop, Belichick is a > genius. > > > > > > > -- Sent from my mobile device Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just 12 Weeks" www.leadingafteralayoff.com --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
