100% apparently. Stupid Blackberry.
On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 5:27 PM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]>wrote: > What's the probability that Ray sends the same msg a 4th time? > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: [email protected] <[email protected]> > To: [email protected] <[email protected]> > Sent: Mon Nov 16 14:24:56 2009 > Subject: Re: Football Numbers > > > While I think the probabilities around "the decision" was correct, I > defer to Matt's point that everything around the decision was wrong. > > Belichick had a bad night and I think he cost us the game. > > On 11/16/09, Steve Gendron <[email protected]> wrote: > > However, I did want to point out, that while I am deferring to the > odd-god, > > in his initial analysis, he said the following: > > > > "I think that Indy had the same 50% chance of getting a touchdown whether > > they were on our 30 or theirs." > > I think we can say that this data proves this statement to be wrong. > > > > ________________________________ > > From: [email protected] > > [mailto:[email protected]<[email protected]>] > On Behalf Of Ray Salemi > > Sent: Monday, November 16, 2009 7:49 AM > > To: [email protected] > > Subject: Football Numbers > > > > I calculate that Belichick's decision to go for it gave us a 70% chance > of > > winning the game. Here's my logic. Indy needed two things to happen for > > them to win. They needed us not to convert, and they needed to score a > > touchdown from the30 with 2 minutes and no time outs. Their chances were > > the product of two probabilities. > > > > 1. Chances of stopping the Patriots conversion -- call it 60% > > 2. Chances of scoring from the 30 with 2 minutes left and no timeouts > -- > > call it 50% (remember all the punting they did that day.) > > > > Indy's chances of winning: (60%) * (50%) = 30% > > > > Patriots chances = 70%. > > > > In addition, I think that Indy had the same 50% chance of getting a > > touchdown whether they were on our 30 or theirs. > > > > If Faulk were 3 feet downfield Belichick is a genius. If Reggie Wayne > > doesn't make a fingertip catch, Belichick is a genius. If the O-Line > > doesn't get gashed just when they needed to make a stop, Belichick is a > > genius. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > Sent from my mobile device > > Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity > in Just 12 Weeks" > www.leadingafteralayoff.com > > > > > > -- Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just 12 Weeks" www.leadingafteralayoff.com --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
