I will always be grateful to Marky and the Amazing Technicolor Hole in His Swing for coming through in Games 6 and 7 of the 2004 ALCS and Games 1 and 2 of the World Series. Watching the rest of his Sox tenure was like dental surgery without Novocain.
I presume those defensive stats don't account for the likelihood that Mike Lowell will be healthy in 2010, which he was not in 2009. There's no way Lowell will be that poor in 2010. Beltre will still be a superior defender, for sure, but the gap between the two is likely to be narrowed somewhat. And is that gap really worth $18 million? I might be overestimating Gonzalez but let's not overestimate Scutaro either. A-Gon's career OPS is .689 -- but in his Sox tenure it was right around .700 (sorry -- that's admittedly an estimate but I think it's a decent ballpark). Scutaro's is .721. Scutaro is also two years older that Gonzalez, so I suspect that the difference in production between the two next year will not justify paying Scutaro twice what Gonzalez will get. And I don't see how the offense doesn't take a significant step back with Cameron (.795 career OPS)/Hermida (.769 career OPS) replacing Bay (,896 career OPS). I was always in favor of the Lackey signing and my financial calculations didn't take him into account. Nor did it account for Hermida, who's making short money. What I'm saying is Scutaro/Cameron/Beltre would cost about the same ($32m) as Gonzalez/Lowell/Holliday or Bay ($30-34m). With one of those choices you get a proven 35-homer, high-production guy. With the other, you don't. -- Matt ________________________________ From: Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> To: [email protected] Sent: Tue, January 5, 2010 11:39:18 AM Subject: Re: Sox get Beltre One of the statheads on Sons of Sam Horn -- who was employed at one point by the Sox -- calculates that the defensive improvements would translate to a team ERA 0.35 lower than it was last year (using all of last year's performances). That's 57 runs. Add in the better pitching with Lackey replacing Penny/Smoltz/Wakefield ... what would be the "marginal" value of allowing 650 runs next year instead of 736? Offensively I don't see them taking a big step back -- they were third in baseball, 43 runs behind the Yankees and 11 behind the Angels. A small step -- but I think you underestimate the crappiness of Alex Gonzalez. 850 runs scored is very reasonable (22 fewer than last year). The run differential should actually be better, and that's how you win games. To answer your question, I think we understand defense better now than we did five years ago, and I'd still play Bellhorn over Pokey because his defense wasn't bad and he was far superior to Pokey offensively. And it still hurts me to hear you constantly knocking a hero of 2004. Also, if the choice is Lackey, Scutaro, Cameron, Beltre and Hermida or Matt Holliday, Alex Gonzalez and Mike Lowell, I'll take the Lackey group. Steve O On Tue, Jan 5, 2010 at 11:03 AM, Matt & Olga McSorley <[email protected]> wrote: I'm being brought back to 2004, when I was told it was a waste to start Pokey Reese at second ahead of Mark Bellhorn because defense was so much less important than the "production" Bellhorn provided. So, I wonder, when did defense become so important? > >In 2010 Scutaro cost will $6m, which is $3m more than Alex Gonzalez would have >cost for a marginal offensive upgrade and probably no upgrade defensively. >Beltre will cost $9m plus the $9m the Sox will have to pay Texas or someone >else to take Mike Lowell off their hands. Again, the upgrade will be marginal. > >So, that's $12m spent on marginal upgrades. Then they spent $8m for Mike >Cameron, a guy who plays good defense and smiles a lot but whose production is >pretty average. > >So, by my count that's $20m to upgrade the team marginally. Wonder what $20m >could have bought. Hmmmm..... maybe a power-hitting corner outfielder? Seems >like there were a couple of those on the market. > >Once again, Theo's free-agent shopping gets poor marks. > >-- Matt > > > > ________________________________ From: Ray Salemi <[email protected]> >To: [email protected] >Sent: Tue, January 5, 2010 10:48:44 AM >Subject: Re: Sox get Beltre > > >I think it's from The Hidden Game by Palmer. > > >On Tue, Jan 5, 2010 at 10:46 AM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> >wrote: > >Where does the 7 percent come from? >> >>Steve O >> >> >> >>On Tue, Jan 5, 2010 at 10:38 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>Yup. We dominate that 7% of the game that defense gives you. >>> >>> >>> >>>On Tue, Jan 5, 2010 at 10:36 AM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> >>>wrote: >>> >>>No, I think the plan is for him to catch 120 games or so, mix in some first >>>base and DH. Varitek catches 40 or so games, preferably against lefthanders. >>>And it would be nice if he'd remember how to catch a knuckleball. >>>> >>>>With the addition of Beltre the Sox may very well have the best defense in >>>>all of baseball -- when have we ever been able to say that? Gold glovers at >>>>3B, 1B, 2B, and an above average guy in Scutaro at SS. Ellsbury, Cameron >>>>and Drew in the outfield -- the only real weak link (assuming Ellsbury's >>>>numbers last year were a travesty, or that he moves to LF with Cameron in >>>>CF) is behind the plate, and with the Sox pitching and defense there won't >>>>be that many guys on base to steal second. Let's play ball! >>>> >>>>Steve O >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>On Tue, Jan 5, 2010 at 9:47 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>>I thought there was some concern about him catching every day. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>On Tue, Jan 5, 2010 at 9:17 AM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> >>>>>wrote: >>>>> >>>>>Um, Victor Martinez? >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>On Tue, Jan 5, 2010 at 7:35 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2010/01/red_sox_agree_t.html >>>>>>> >>>>>>>Nice! Now Youk can stay at 1st. But who will catch? >>>>>>> >>>>>>>Ray >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>>-- >>>>>>>Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in >>>>>>>Just 12 Weeks" >>>>>>>www.leadingafteralayoff.com >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>>--You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>>>>Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>>>>To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>>>>To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>>>>[email protected]. >>>>>>>For more options, visit this group at >>>>>>>http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>--You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>>>Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>>>To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>>>To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>>>[email protected]. >>>>>>For more options, visit this group at >>>>>>http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>-- >>>>>Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in >>>>>Just 12 Weeks" >>>>>www.leadingafteralayoff.com >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>--You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>>Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>>To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>>To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>>[email protected]. >>>>>For more options, visit this group at >>>>>http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>>> >>>> >>>>--You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>>>"Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>[email protected]. >>>>For more options, visit this group at >>>>http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>> >>> >>> >>>-- >>>Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just >>>12 Weeks" >>>www.leadingafteralayoff.com >>> >>> >>> >>>--You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>>"Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>[email protected]. >>>For more options, visit this group at >>>http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>> >> >>--You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>"Red Sox Citizens" group. >>To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>[email protected]. >>For more options, visit this group at >>http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> > > >-- >Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just >12 Weeks" >www.leadingafteralayoff.com > > > >--You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >"Red Sox Citizens" group. >To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >[email protected]. >For more options, visit this group at >http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > >--You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >"Red Sox Citizens" group. >To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >[email protected]. >For more options, visit this group at >http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. 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