ada twitter, tapi jarang saya pake. Japri aja langsung :). Dulu sering posting di flog.co.id, tapi setelah bberapa lama, mending posting di milis aja. :)
Salam, Chris --- In [email protected], bungjaja@... wrote: > > Pak orgindo punya twitter yg bisa saya follow? > Saya suka bapak fundamentalis lugas, sementara banyak fundamentalis sok > canggih ngecap tapi lupa nature bisnisnya ga 'going corncern'.. > > orgindo <angkasa_chris@...> wrote: > > >My thought on HRUM. > > > >Sekadar pemikiran saya dari sisi investor long term. > > > >Saya dulu berpikir bahwa HRUM adalah value-buy, tapi setelah mengecek > >lebih dalam awal tahun ini, berikut ringkasan pemikiran saya: > > > >1. cadangan HRUM vs. ITMG: 106M vs. 550M > > > >HRUM: 106M > >ITMG: 550M > >PTBA: 2,000M > >ADRO: 1,000M > > > >2. Produksi 2012 > >HRUM: 12M > >ITMG: 27M > >PTBA: 16M > >ADRO: 47M > > > >3. With those two pieces of information: > >- HRUM only have less than 10 years. Which means, at p/e ratio of 8.8, > >it leaves little room for earning. You can only extract another 8 years > >of earnings. That is assuming, the margin stays the same. > >- At current coal price and prospect, I do not see much upside, that > >the margin will improve > >- The management might be incentivized to reduce production, to extend > >the production years, however, this is not of the best interest of the > >shareholder, as operation cost is ongoing. > > > >4. considering this information, there is not enough margin for value > >play. Assuming the earning stays the same, if I am going to buy this > >for value perspective, I will only buy this when it reach 2,000 for > >sufficient margin of safety. > > > >Honestly, banyak saham yang menyediakan lebih banyak value daripada > >HRUM. Valuasi ITMG lebih mahal dari HRUM, tapi ITMG memiliki runway > >lebih lama drpd HRUM. > >The only catalyst for HRUM, if they find more coal reserve, other than > >this, it will be a value-trap, or at most, speculating play. > > > >Mohon masukan nya kalau ada yang salah. > > > >Chris > > @moronrider > ------------------------------------ Kunjungi situs http://www.info-saham.com untuk informasi seputar saham. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI TANGGUNG JAWAB PENGIRIM EMAIL DAN BUKAN ADMIN MILIS. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI BUKAN UNTUK MENGAJAK MEMBELI ATAU MENJUAL EFEK. SETIAP KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI MENJADI TANGGUNG JAWAB PIHAK PEMILIK INVESTASI ATAU PEMILIK MODAL. [email protected] untuk berhenti dari milis saham [email protected] untuk bergabung ke milis saham Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: [email protected] [email protected] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [email protected] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
