cadangan harusnya uda diketahui beberapa tahun ke belakang, kok baru sekarang nyadar?? di pas-pasin aja, pas momen koreksi?
On Thu, May 2, 2013 at 10:07 AM, orgindo <[email protected]> wrote: > ** > > > Kalo dari sisi saya, berikut perhitungan saya. Berikut cuma salah satu > cara perhitungan kasar, supaya lebih akurat, perlu dengan metode DCF, tapi > for the sake of simplicity, gw pake yang lbh mudah. > > Asumsi: > 1. Cadangan batubara 106M > 2. Harga batubara stay the same > 3. profit/tonnes stay the same > 4. Total tonase produksi adalah total tonase penjualan batubara > > Perhitungan: > Profit per ton (berdasarkan tahun 2012, produksi 13 ton): > Net Income / Total produksi = Profit / ton > Rp. 1,232 milyar / 13 juta ton = Rp.94,769 / ton > > Sisa profit yang bisa di extract: 106M x Rp. 94,769 / ton = Rp.10,045 > Milyar > Sisa profit / share = > profit total / share outstanding = profit/share > 10,045 milyar / 2,704,000,000 = Rp. 3,715 > > Angka di atas mencerminkan berapa duit yang anda dapat bila anda membeli > saham HRUM. Artinya jikalau HRUM mampu menjual sebanyak itu hari ini, maka > itu uang yang akan anda dapat. Jadi, harga per hari ini sebanyak 3,925, > masih tidak begitu atraktif. > > Faktor yang bisa menurunkan valuasi: > 1. Manajemen memperlambat produksi > 2. Perhitungan secara DCF dengan factoring in interest rate. Lebih akurat, > tapi saya kira untuk case HRUM, kita tidak usah explore lebih jauh. 10 > years with 5% free interest rate, i dont think HRUM stand a chance. > 3. Harga batubara semakin turun > > Faktor yang bisa menaikkan saham > 1. Cadangan baru, dalam hal ini, harus di atas 25M ton untuk mempengaruhi > harga saham secara signifikan. > 2. Harga batu bara naik. > > I dont think from fundamental view, HRUM stand a chance at current price > (3925). Kalaupun HRUM selamat, you will be better off holding other stock > like ITMG or ADRO, since I see the most likely positive catalyst of all is > the rising coal price (which I personally think is unlikely for the next 10 > years). If that is what happened, ITMG and ADRO with a bigger reserve will > stand to benefit more. > > Pertanyaan manajemen sering muncul. Saya setuju dari RoE, RoA, performance > HRUM bisa dibilang paling bagus, namun masalah tetap pada bagaimana mereka > menjawab permslahan reserve mereka. No matter how good you are at digging > out coal, if your coal runs out, you cant do anything. HRUM perlu manajemen > explorasi, bukan manajemen ekstraksi utk menyelamatkan mrk. > > Call me bearish, but this is number, and simple number. Call me simple, > but I dont think in this case you need more than simple algebra to see the > picture. > > Benar kata Buffett be greedy when others are fearful, but I dont see him > applying this on any stock. He did not buy Citi, GM, he bought WFC. > > Dari sisi TA, mungkin saja bisa cuan. After all TA bisa profit di kondisi > apapun. It is not my field, and not my domain to comment on. But whatever > you do, you better know what you are doing. Dont speculate and pretend to > yourself that you are investing. > > Jadi buat teman2 TA, hindari analisa saya, jangan sampe analisis saya > membuat anda kehilangan kesempatan cuan Rp.300 perak. :) > > Salam! > Chris > > "Investing is an activity of forecasting the yield over the life of the > asset; speculation is the activity of forecasting the psychology of the > market." - Keynes > > > --- In [email protected], akim.siregar@... wrote: > > > > 3000 aja dulu > > Sent from my BlackBerry® > > > powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: tomatoes_lovers@... > > Sender: [email protected] > > Date: Wed, 01 May 2013 23:15:33 > > > To: <[email protected]> > > Reply-To: [email protected] > > > Subject: Re: [saham] My thought on HRUM > > > >  > > > > > > > > > > Sentimen negatif mulai brmunculan thd hrum. Bntr lagi rebound kah? > > > > > > > > > > Silakan join milis B-Trade TC di [email protected] > > Salam hangat dan penuh kasih, > > > > > > Wijen Pontus > > Technical Analyst, Trader, Elliottician > > G.R.A.C.E. Trader > > Founder of B-Trade Trading Course > > www.b-trade.org > > 3152D26F > > > > > > From: satriyo.pranoto@... > > > Sent: Rabu, 01 Mei 2013 23.13.04 > > To: [email protected] > > Reply To: [email protected] > > Subject: Re: [saham] My thought on HRUM > > > > > >  > > > > Ulasan fundamental yg sgt bagus pak Chris. > > Terimakasih, > > Satriyo > > Sent by DiGi from my BlackBerry® Smartphone > > ---------------- > > > > From: "orgindo" <angkasa_chris@...> > > Sender: [email protected] > > Date: Wed, 01 May 2013 15:27:58 -0000 > > To: <[email protected]> > > ReplyTo: [email protected] > > Subject: [saham] My thought on HRUM > > > >  > > > > My thought on HRUM. > > > > Sekadar pemikiran saya dari sisi investor long term. > > > > Saya dulu berpikir bahwa HRUM adalah value-buy, tapi setelah mengecek > lebih dalam awal tahun ini, berikut ringkasan pemikiran saya: > > > > 1. cadangan HRUM vs. ITMG: 106M vs. 550M > > > > HRUM: 106M > > ITMG: 550M > > PTBA: 2,000M > > ADRO: 1,000M > > > > 2. Produksi 2012 > > HRUM: 12M > > ITMG: 27M > > PTBA: 16M > > ADRO: 47M > > > > 3. With those two pieces of information: > > - HRUM only have less than 10 years. Which means, at p/e ratio of 8.8, > it leaves little room for earning. You can only extract another 8 years of > earnings. That is assuming, the margin stays the same. > > - At current coal price and prospect, I do not see much upside, that the > margin will improve > > - The management might be incentivized to reduce production, to extend > the production years, however, this is not of the best interest of the > shareholder, as operation cost is ongoing. > > > > 4. considering this information, there is not enough margin for value > play. Assuming the earning stays the same, if I am going to buy this for > value perspective, I will only buy this when it reach 2,000 for sufficient > margin of safety. > > > > Honestly, banyak saham yang menyediakan lebih banyak value daripada > HRUM. Valuasi ITMG lebih mahal dari HRUM, tapi ITMG memiliki runway lebih > lama drpd HRUM. > > The only catalyst for HRUM, if they find more coal reserve, other than > this, it will be a value-trap, or at most, speculating play. > > > > Mohon masukan nya kalau ada yang salah. > > > > Chris > > > > >
