Engga kok. Saya sudah officially bearish sejak tahun lalu. A bit too early, but check flog.co.id. Maaf kalo kelihatannya saya timingnya salah. But appreciate if you can comment on my calculation, karena HRUM mungkin saja naik ke 9,000, tapi ga akan merubah kalkulasi yang saya present. Mau saya posting ini di harga 5,800, nanti saya dibilang gila (in fact, saya discuss dengan beberapa orang, saya dibilang gila), mau posting di 2,000 nanti saya dibilang pahlawan kesiangan. :)
Ga ada maksud apa-apa agan, cuma berbagi. toh 3,925 uda dekat banget ke 3,700 (kalkulasi fair value saya). Appreciate if you can comment on FA standpoint. :) Thanks! Chris --- In [email protected], saham cc <saham.cc@...> wrote: > > cadangan harusnya uda diketahui beberapa tahun ke belakang, kok baru > sekarang nyadar?? di pas-pasin aja, pas momen koreksi? > > > On Thu, May 2, 2013 at 10:07 AM, orgindo <angkasa_chris@...> wrote: > > > ** > > > > > > Kalo dari sisi saya, berikut perhitungan saya. Berikut cuma salah satu > > cara perhitungan kasar, supaya lebih akurat, perlu dengan metode DCF, tapi > > for the sake of simplicity, gw pake yang lbh mudah. > > > > Asumsi: > > 1. Cadangan batubara 106M > > 2. Harga batubara stay the same > > 3. profit/tonnes stay the same > > 4. Total tonase produksi adalah total tonase penjualan batubara > > > > Perhitungan: > > Profit per ton (berdasarkan tahun 2012, produksi 13 ton): > > Net Income / Total produksi = Profit / ton > > Rp. 1,232 milyar / 13 juta ton = Rp.94,769 / ton > > > > Sisa profit yang bisa di extract: 106M x Rp. 94,769 / ton = Rp.10,045 > > Milyar > > Sisa profit / share = > > profit total / share outstanding = profit/share > > 10,045 milyar / 2,704,000,000 = Rp. 3,715 > > > > Angka di atas mencerminkan berapa duit yang anda dapat bila anda membeli > > saham HRUM. Artinya jikalau HRUM mampu menjual sebanyak itu hari ini, maka > > itu uang yang akan anda dapat. Jadi, harga per hari ini sebanyak 3,925, > > masih tidak begitu atraktif. > > > > Faktor yang bisa menurunkan valuasi: > > 1. Manajemen memperlambat produksi > > 2. Perhitungan secara DCF dengan factoring in interest rate. Lebih akurat, > > tapi saya kira untuk case HRUM, kita tidak usah explore lebih jauh. 10 > > years with 5% free interest rate, i dont think HRUM stand a chance. > > 3. Harga batubara semakin turun > > > > Faktor yang bisa menaikkan saham > > 1. Cadangan baru, dalam hal ini, harus di atas 25M ton untuk mempengaruhi > > harga saham secara signifikan. > > 2. Harga batu bara naik. > > > > I dont think from fundamental view, HRUM stand a chance at current price > > (3925). Kalaupun HRUM selamat, you will be better off holding other stock > > like ITMG or ADRO, since I see the most likely positive catalyst of all is > > the rising coal price (which I personally think is unlikely for the next 10 > > years). If that is what happened, ITMG and ADRO with a bigger reserve will > > stand to benefit more. > > > > Pertanyaan manajemen sering muncul. Saya setuju dari RoE, RoA, performance > > HRUM bisa dibilang paling bagus, namun masalah tetap pada bagaimana mereka > > menjawab permslahan reserve mereka. No matter how good you are at digging > > out coal, if your coal runs out, you cant do anything. HRUM perlu manajemen > > explorasi, bukan manajemen ekstraksi utk menyelamatkan mrk. > > > > Call me bearish, but this is number, and simple number. Call me simple, > > but I dont think in this case you need more than simple algebra to see the > > picture. > > > > Benar kata Buffett be greedy when others are fearful, but I dont see him > > applying this on any stock. He did not buy Citi, GM, he bought WFC. > > > > Dari sisi TA, mungkin saja bisa cuan. After all TA bisa profit di kondisi > > apapun. It is not my field, and not my domain to comment on. But whatever > > you do, you better know what you are doing. Dont speculate and pretend to > > yourself that you are investing. > > > > Jadi buat teman2 TA, hindari analisa saya, jangan sampe analisis saya > > membuat anda kehilangan kesempatan cuan Rp.300 perak. :) > > > > Salam! > > Chris > > > > "Investing is an activity of forecasting the yield over the life of the > > asset; speculation is the activity of forecasting the psychology of the > > market." - Keynes > > > > > > --- In [email protected], akim.siregar@ wrote: > > > > > > 3000 aja dulu > > > Sent from my BlackBerry® > > > > > powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: tomatoes_lovers@ > > > Sender: [email protected] > > > Date: Wed, 01 May 2013 23:15:33 > > > > > To: <[email protected]> > > > Reply-To: [email protected] > > > > > Subject: Re: [saham] My thought on HRUM > > > > > >  > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Sentimen negatif mulai brmunculan thd hrum. Bntr lagi rebound kah? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Silakan join milis B-Trade TC di [email protected] > > > Salam hangat dan penuh kasih, > > > > > > > > > Wijen Pontus > > > Technical Analyst, Trader, Elliottician > > > G.R.A.C.E. Trader > > > Founder of B-Trade Trading Course > > > www.b-trade.org > > > 3152D26F > > > > > > > > > From: satriyo.pranoto@ > > > > > Sent: Rabu, 01 Mei 2013 23.13.04 > > > To: [email protected] > > > Reply To: [email protected] > > > Subject: Re: [saham] My thought on HRUM > > > > > > > > >  > > > > > > Ulasan fundamental yg sgt bagus pak Chris. > > > Terimakasih, > > > Satriyo > > > Sent by DiGi from my BlackBerry® Smartphone > > > ---------------- > > > > > > From: "orgindo" <angkasa_chris@> > > > Sender: [email protected] > > > Date: Wed, 01 May 2013 15:27:58 -0000 > > > To: <[email protected]> > > > ReplyTo: [email protected] > > > Subject: [saham] My thought on HRUM > > > > > >  > > > > > > My thought on HRUM. > > > > > > Sekadar pemikiran saya dari sisi investor long term. > > > > > > Saya dulu berpikir bahwa HRUM adalah value-buy, tapi setelah mengecek > > lebih dalam awal tahun ini, berikut ringkasan pemikiran saya: > > > > > > 1. cadangan HRUM vs. ITMG: 106M vs. 550M > > > > > > HRUM: 106M > > > ITMG: 550M > > > PTBA: 2,000M > > > ADRO: 1,000M > > > > > > 2. Produksi 2012 > > > HRUM: 12M > > > ITMG: 27M > > > PTBA: 16M > > > ADRO: 47M > > > > > > 3. With those two pieces of information: > > > - HRUM only have less than 10 years. Which means, at p/e ratio of 8.8, > > it leaves little room for earning. You can only extract another 8 years of > > earnings. That is assuming, the margin stays the same. > > > - At current coal price and prospect, I do not see much upside, that the > > margin will improve > > > - The management might be incentivized to reduce production, to extend > > the production years, however, this is not of the best interest of the > > shareholder, as operation cost is ongoing. > > > > > > 4. considering this information, there is not enough margin for value > > play. Assuming the earning stays the same, if I am going to buy this for > > value perspective, I will only buy this when it reach 2,000 for sufficient > > margin of safety. > > > > > > Honestly, banyak saham yang menyediakan lebih banyak value daripada > > HRUM. Valuasi ITMG lebih mahal dari HRUM, tapi ITMG memiliki runway lebih > > lama drpd HRUM. > > > The only catalyst for HRUM, if they find more coal reserve, other than > > this, it will be a value-trap, or at most, speculating play. > > > > > > Mohon masukan nya kalau ada yang salah. > > > > > > Chris > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ Kunjungi situs http://www.info-saham.com untuk informasi seputar saham. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI TANGGUNG JAWAB PENGIRIM EMAIL DAN BUKAN ADMIN MILIS. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI BUKAN UNTUK MENGAJAK MEMBELI ATAU MENJUAL EFEK. SETIAP KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI MENJADI TANGGUNG JAWAB PIHAK PEMILIK INVESTASI ATAU PEMILIK MODAL. [email protected] untuk berhenti dari milis saham [email protected] untuk bergabung ke milis saham Yahoo! 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