Ketika berbicara mengenai 'fear' atau ketakutan dalam konteks
perdagangan/investasi saham, kecenderungan publik untuk mengasosiasikannya
dengan ketakutan atas kehilangan uang ('fear losing money') atau ketakutan
atas 'bear market' yang tidak akan berakhir ('fear of never ending bear
market'). Padahal ada satu bentuk ketakutan lainnya yang tidak kalah merusak
perencanaan trading/investing yang sudah dipersiapkan lebih dahulu, tentu
akan lebih so unfortunate jika sedari awal sama sekai tidak memiliki
perencanaan.
Ketakutan akan ketinggalan ('fear of losing out') adalah bentuk ketakutan
yang perlu menjadi catatan. Martin J. Pring, salah satu world renowned
market technician yang karya-karya technical analysis-nya menjadi acuan
sertifikasi market technicians pada developed stock market, menjelaskan
secara lugas mentalitas 'losing out' ini sebagai berikut.
*The Fear of Losing Out*. This classification of fear is a very powerful
one. *This phenomenon often occurs after a sharp price rise*. Portfolio
managers are often measured on a relative basis either against the market
itself or against a universe of their peers. If they are under-invested as a
sharp rally begins, *perception of missing out on a price move and of
subsequent under-performance is so great that the fear of missing the boat
forces them to get in*.
This form of fear can also affect individuals. Often, an investor will
judge, quite correctly, that a major bull market in a specific financial
asset is about to get underway. Then when the big move develops, he does not
participate for some reason. It might be because he was waiting for lower
prices, or more likely because he had already got in but had then been
psyched out due to some unexpected bad news. Regardless of the reason, such
"sold out bulls" suddenly feel left out and feel compelled to get back into
the market. Ironically, this usually occurs somewhere close to the top.
Consequently, the strong belief in the bull market case coupled with the
contagion of seeing prices explode results in the feeling of being left out.
*I have found personally that this fear of missing the boat is frequently
coupled with anger*, which may be triggered by a minor mishap that compounds
my frustration. These mistakes typically take the form of an unfortunate
execution, a bad fill, a lost order, an so on. Inevitably, I have found the
burst of emotion to be associated with a major, often dramatic turning point
in the market. This experience tells me two things. First, I have obviously
lost my sense of objectivity as the need to participate at all costs
overrides every other emotion. My decision is therefore likely to be wrong.
Second, the very nature of the situation-a lengthy period of rising prices
culminating in total frustration-symbolizes an overextended market. It is
reasonable to expect that others are also affected by the same sense of
frustration, which implies that all the buying potential has already been
realized.
*When you find yourself in this kind of situation it is almost always wise
to stand aside. A client once said to me, "There is always another
train."*By this, he meant that even if you do miss the current
opportunity, however
wonderful it may appear, patience and discipline will always reward you with
another. *If you ever find yourself in this predicament, overcome the fear
of missing out and look for the next "train."*
Fear, in effect, causes us to act in a vacuum. It is such an overpowering
emotion that we forget about the alternatives, temporarily losing the
perception that we do have other choices.
Selanjutnya, dalam post berikut, kita akan lanjutkan dengan bentuk lain dari
ketakutan akan ketinggalan ('fear of losing out') yang bersifat penyangkalan
atas perubahan kondisi sekitar.
http://pring.com/pring_bio.htm
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