TULISANnnya bagus pak pos On Thu, Aug 11, 2011 at 10:56 AM, heru <[email protected]> wrote:
> > > Kemaren katanya >4000 ihsg minggu ini, gimana seh? > > Sent from my BlackBerry® > powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT > ------------------------------ > *From: * positif01 <[email protected]> > *Sender: * [email protected] > *Date: *Thu, 11 Aug 2011 10:39:10 +0700 > *ReplyTo: * [email protected] > *Subject: *[saham] Bentuk lain dari 'Fear': The Fear of Losing Out' #1 - > Mastering Fear > > > > Ketika berbicara mengenai 'fear' atau ketakutan dalam konteks > perdagangan/investasi saham, kecenderungan publik untuk mengasosiasikannya > dengan ketakutan atas kehilangan uang ('fear losing money') atau ketakutan > atas 'bear market' yang tidak akan berakhir ('fear of never ending bear > market'). Padahal ada satu bentuk ketakutan lainnya yang tidak kalah merusak > perencanaan trading/investing yang sudah dipersiapkan lebih dahulu, tentu > akan lebih so unfortunate jika sedari awal sama sekai tidak memiliki > perencanaan. > > Ketakutan akan ketinggalan ('fear of losing out') adalah bentuk ketakutan > yang perlu menjadi catatan. Martin J. Pring, salah satu world renowned > market technician yang karya-karya technical analysis-nya menjadi acuan > sertifikasi market technicians pada developed stock market, menjelaskan > secara lugas mentalitas 'losing out' ini sebagai berikut. > > *The Fear of Losing Out*. This classification of fear is a very powerful > one. *This phenomenon often occurs after a sharp price rise*. Portfolio > managers are often measured on a relative basis either against the market > itself or against a universe of their peers. If they are under-invested as a > sharp rally begins, *perception of missing out on a price move and of > subsequent under-performance is so great that the fear of missing the boat > forces them to get in*. > > This form of fear can also affect individuals. Often, an investor will > judge, quite correctly, that a major bull market in a specific financial > asset is about to get underway. Then when the big move develops, he does not > participate for some reason. It might be because he was waiting for lower > prices, or more likely because he had already got in but had then been > psyched out due to some unexpected bad news. Regardless of the reason, such > "sold out bulls" suddenly feel left out and feel compelled to get back into > the market. Ironically, this usually occurs somewhere close to the top. > Consequently, the strong belief in the bull market case coupled with the > contagion of seeing prices explode results in the feeling of being left out. > > *I have found personally that this fear of missing the boat is frequently > coupled with anger*, which may be triggered by a minor mishap that > compounds my frustration. These mistakes typically take the form of an > unfortunate execution, a bad fill, a lost order, an so on. Inevitably, I > have found the burst of emotion to be associated with a major, often > dramatic turning point in the market. This experience tells me two things. > First, I have obviously lost my sense of objectivity as the need to > participate at all costs overrides every other emotion. My decision is > therefore likely to be wrong. Second, the very nature of the situation-a > lengthy period of rising prices culminating in total frustration-symbolizes > an overextended market. It is reasonable to expect that others are also > affected by the same sense of frustration, which implies that all the buying > potential has already been realized. > > *When you find yourself in this kind of situation it is almost always wise > to stand aside. A client once said to me, "There is always another train." > * By this, he meant that even if you do miss the current opportunity, > however wonderful it may appear, patience and discipline will always reward > you with another. *If you ever find yourself in this predicament, overcome > the fear of missing out and look for the next "train."* > > Fear, in effect, causes us to act in a vacuum. It is such an overpowering > emotion that we forget about the alternatives, temporarily losing the > perception that we do have other choices. > > Selanjutnya, dalam post berikut, kita akan lanjutkan dengan bentuk lain > dari ketakutan akan ketinggalan ('fear of losing out') yang bersifat > penyangkalan atas perubahan kondisi sekitar. > > http://pring.com/pring_bio.htm > > '+' > >
