Kemaren katanya >4000 ihsg minggu ini, gimana seh?
Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -----Original Message----- From: positif01 <[email protected]> Sender: [email protected] Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2011 10:39:10 Reply-To: [email protected] Subject: [saham] Bentuk lain dari 'Fear': The Fear of Losing Out' #1 - Mastering Fear Ketika berbicara mengenai 'fear' atau ketakutan dalam konteks perdagangan/investasi saham, kecenderungan publik untuk mengasosiasikannya dengan ketakutan atas kehilangan uang ('fear losing money') atau ketakutan atas 'bear market' yang tidak akan berakhir ('fear of never ending bear market'). Padahal ada satu bentuk ketakutan lainnya yang tidak kalah merusak perencanaan trading/investing yang sudah dipersiapkan lebih dahulu, tentu akan lebih so unfortunate jika sedari awal sama sekai tidak memiliki perencanaan. Ketakutan akan ketinggalan ('fear of losing out') adalah bentuk ketakutan yang perlu menjadi catatan. Martin J. Pring, salah satu world renowned market technician yang karya-karya technical analysis-nya menjadi acuan sertifikasi market technicians pada developed stock market, menjelaskan secara lugas mentalitas 'losing out' ini sebagai berikut. *The Fear of Losing Out*. This classification of fear is a very powerful one. *This phenomenon often occurs after a sharp price rise*. Portfolio managers are often measured on a relative basis either against the market itself or against a universe of their peers. If they are under-invested as a sharp rally begins, *perception of missing out on a price move and of subsequent under-performance is so great that the fear of missing the boat forces them to get in*. This form of fear can also affect individuals. Often, an investor will judge, quite correctly, that a major bull market in a specific financial asset is about to get underway. Then when the big move develops, he does not participate for some reason. It might be because he was waiting for lower prices, or more likely because he had already got in but had then been psyched out due to some unexpected bad news. Regardless of the reason, such "sold out bulls" suddenly feel left out and feel compelled to get back into the market. Ironically, this usually occurs somewhere close to the top. Consequently, the strong belief in the bull market case coupled with the contagion of seeing prices explode results in the feeling of being left out. *I have found personally that this fear of missing the boat is frequently coupled with anger*, which may be triggered by a minor mishap that compounds my frustration. These mistakes typically take the form of an unfortunate execution, a bad fill, a lost order, an so on. Inevitably, I have found the burst of emotion to be associated with a major, often dramatic turning point in the market. This experience tells me two things. First, I have obviously lost my sense of objectivity as the need to participate at all costs overrides every other emotion. My decision is therefore likely to be wrong. Second, the very nature of the situation-a lengthy period of rising prices culminating in total frustration-symbolizes an overextended market. It is reasonable to expect that others are also affected by the same sense of frustration, which implies that all the buying potential has already been realized. *When you find yourself in this kind of situation it is almost always wise to stand aside. A client once said to me, "There is always another train."*By this, he meant that even if you do miss the current opportunity, however wonderful it may appear, patience and discipline will always reward you with another. *If you ever find yourself in this predicament, overcome the fear of missing out and look for the next "train."* Fear, in effect, causes us to act in a vacuum. It is such an overpowering emotion that we forget about the alternatives, temporarily losing the perception that we do have other choices. Selanjutnya, dalam post berikut, kita akan lanjutkan dengan bentuk lain dari ketakutan akan ketinggalan ('fear of losing out') yang bersifat penyangkalan atas perubahan kondisi sekitar. http://pring.com/pring_bio.htm '+'
