Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets
I help run a large non-profit colocation and hosting center for various groups of which an implementation of this would fit perfectly with our mission. If people are interested in trying this in a fully transparent method I am willing to provide our resources and my time to make it happen. Thanks, davidu Seriously - how hard is it to set up such a market? If indeed it can lead to better prediction of violent events, and if it is something that is relatively easy to set up, then why not? Could this be shut down by the Feds? Under what justifications? Fabio Rojas
Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets
quote who=fabio guillermo rojas Seriously - how hard is it to set up such a market? If indeed it can lead to better prediction of violent events, and if it is something that is relatively easy to set up, then why not? Could this be shut down by the Feds? Under what justifications? Games, in and of themselves, are not illegal. Even the program setup by the pentagon violated no laws I am aware of...(as if it's possible to know them all...). Again, if others are interested in getting this setup, I'm for it -- then again, it looks like some of the other futures site's on the web have already created DHS,Terrorism and other related sections to their sites so it may be a moot point at this juncture. And if the (US) gov. decided it had a problem with running it, we have limited colocation resources outside of the US for this very reason. As an aside, most of my servers (except email and a few others) drop traffic originiating from DoD or other government registered IP space. Thanks, davidu David A. Ulevitch -- http://david.ulevitch.com http://everydns.net -+- http://communitycolo.net Campus Box 6957 + Washington University in St. Louis
Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets
I think you could get into a whole lot of trouble since for any event you predict that happens, if the common opinion is that you have somehow encouraged it, the burden of proof on the civil level will effectively be on you to show that you haven't, which of course will likely be impossible. Also, from questions I asked some of the IEM people a while back, the story goes that most futures markets require heavy regulation, and that they managed to get a no action letter from some agency that guaranteed they would not be hassled with it, since otherwise they could be. The other alternative is to put up your own money prizes for futures, so that you are giving it away creatively, but that doesn't really help with the above problem. I'm sure there must be some people on here that had a hand in the Arizona exchange, and I would be thrilled to hear the story of how they managed that. Quoting fabio guillermo rojas [EMAIL PROTECTED]: I help run a large non-profit colocation and hosting center for various groups of which an implementation of this would fit perfectly with our mission. If people are interested in trying this in a fully transparent method I am willing to provide our resources and my time to make it happen. Thanks, davidu Seriously - how hard is it to set up such a market? If indeed it can lead to better prediction of violent events, and if it is something that is relatively easy to set up, then why not? Could this be shut down by the Feds? Under what justifications? Fabio Rojas
