Re: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years?
- Original Message - From: "Dan M" To: "'Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion'" Sent: Saturday, January 10, 2009 1:24 PM Subject: RE: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years? > > >> -Original Message- >> From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On >> Behalf Of xponentrob >> Sent: Saturday, January 10, 2009 11:50 AM >> To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion >> Subject: Re: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years? >> > >> Sheesh Dan! You are exaggerating your argument a bit don't you think? >> Looking around, I can't find many cars that are even close to 11K MSRP >> excepting a few Kias and the Toyota Yaris Chevy Aveo, and Nissan Versa; >> and none of them are getting the kind of gas mileage you specify. Indeed, >> only the Yaris breaks 30 MPG. (Granted, cars are selling at an average of >> 14.9% below MSRP these days) > > OK, I was doing milage from memory. But, my bigger Escort gets 30, so I > thought these smaller cars got a bit more. > > But, let's just take 30. At $1.50/gal, that's 5 cents/mile. Lets say > these > cars are kept for 150k, which is on the high side...that's 7.5k for gas. > The break even point, assuming CDs pay zero, with the MSRP discount, is > close to $6.00/gal. And, that's comparing with a smaller car. > Heh! I'm aware of the math involved. Frex: http://www.gunaxin.com/chevy-volt-bmw-mini-tesla-roadster/4055 Worth reading. The problem with breaking down the math is that it pretty well preaches to the already-decided. People are going to buy what they want to buy unless they just can't afford to, and that is likely the only math that counts. That pretty much means that some people will take a premium hit if they believe that there will be other indirect benefits. Then too, it must be repeated that these are initial estimates, and that the prices will inevitably lower. It is just a question of how much, and that kind of market forcasting is near impossible at the moment for anyone. > > >> >> Vaporware? > > The Tesla can be bought. The others are still being configured and are > not > available for sale. I've always been skeptical about what the price and > performance will be. The engineering rule is that projects take twice as > long and cost twice as much. Cutting this factor down, because they are > in > prototype stage, a conservative estimate is that costs are 30% higher than > discussed. They talked about 5 people, they talked about 240 miles, but > never said that 5 people could be taken 240 miles. My guess is that the 5 > person seating is tight, and only for the 80 mile version of the > carotherwise they'd explicitly say otherwise (If I were the project > manager I'd be all over the tech. writer's back to make sure that the > capacity was stated explicitly if it existed...if it wasn't there, I'd be > happy with what they wrote). > > Second, the 240 miles would probably be under ideal conditions. Exactly the same as with gasoline vehicles, only no one ever questions this. For some reason I find that humorous. > > I'm not opposed to electric cars, I just try to use the rules of thumb > I've > learned from engineering on all comers...those I'm rooting for as well as > against. > > Realistically, after a recovery, long term gasoline prices should average > in > the $2.50 range. I know that if we could get $80 oil (in 2008 dollars) > promised for the next 10 years, everyone in the oil patch would be very > very > happy. Electric cars will have to compete against that. So, the math has > to > work out that waythe lower payments on gas will have to balance the > higher payments on the car note for the average Joe and Joan. You also have to factor in the lower costs of using electricity as an energy source. Depending on where one lives, gas is 3 - 5 times as costly as the equivilent in watts. What is the value of a vehicle you may have zero maintainance with in the first 5 years? What will be the differences in warranties? There are a lot of unanswered questions that effect value. > >> I understand the argument you are trying to make. The key is battery >> development. And there are economic issues that could miscarry the entire >> trend... if normal and simple economics were to hold sway. >> But >> I don't think those kinds of economic arguments will hold in the long >> run. >> There is political will running in from several directions that will >> create a sort of ad hoc alliance to promote hybrids and BEVs. > > I believe that. I wouldn't doubt that people will be able to pitch for > over > 100 billion in government money for projects. That is happening now. > The question is whether it > will have more of a real impact that the 30 billion/year we have thrown at > ethanol. Eventually, I think the answer is Yes. I don't think there is any question that there is a need to get away from carbon based fuels and from millions of mobile units burning them at
RE: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years?
> -Original Message- > From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On > Behalf Of xponentrob > Sent: Saturday, January 10, 2009 11:50 AM > To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion > Subject: Re: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years? > > Sheesh Dan! You are exaggerating your argument a bit don't you think? > Looking around, I can't find many cars that are even close to 11K MSRP > excepting a few Kias and the Toyota Yaris Chevy Aveo, and Nissan Versa; > and none of them are getting the kind of gas mileage you specify. Indeed, > only the Yaris breaks 30 MPG. (Granted, cars are selling at an average of > 14.9% below MSRP these days) OK, I was doing milage from memory. But, my bigger Escort gets 30, so I thought these smaller cars got a bit more. But, let's just take 30. At $1.50/gal, that's 5 cents/mile. Lets say these cars are kept for 150k, which is on the high side...that's 7.5k for gas. The break even point, assuming CDs pay zero, with the MSRP discount, is close to $6.00/gal. And, that's comparing with a smaller car. > > Vaporware? The Tesla can be bought. The others are still being configured and are not available for sale. I've always been skeptical about what the price and performance will be. The engineering rule is that projects take twice as long and cost twice as much. Cutting this factor down, because they are in prototype stage, a conservative estimate is that costs are 30% higher than discussed. They talked about 5 people, they talked about 240 miles, but never said that 5 people could be taken 240 miles. My guess is that the 5 person seating is tight, and only for the 80 mile version of the carotherwise they'd explicitly say otherwise (If I were the project manager I'd be all over the tech. writer's back to make sure that the capacity was stated explicitly if it existed...if it wasn't there, I'd be happy with what they wrote). Second, the 240 miles would probably be under ideal conditions. I'm not opposed to electric cars, I just try to use the rules of thumb I've learned from engineering on all comers...those I'm rooting for as well as against. Realistically, after a recovery, long term gasoline prices should average in the $2.50 range. I know that if we could get $80 oil (in 2008 dollars) promised for the next 10 years, everyone in the oil patch would be very very happy. Electric cars will have to compete against that. So, the math has to work out that waythe lower payments on gas will have to balance the higher payments on the car note for the average Joe and Joan. > I understand the argument you are trying to make. The key is battery > development. And there are economic issues that could miscarry the entire > trend... if normal and simple economics were to hold sway. But > I don't think those kinds of economic arguments will hold in the long run. > There is political will running in from several directions that will > create a sort of ad hoc alliance to promote hybrids and BEVs. I believe that. I wouldn't doubt that people will be able to pitch for over 100 billion in government money for projects. The question is whether it will have more of a real impact that the 30 billion/year we have thrown at ethanol. > It appears that concern over "Peak Oil" is growing. > There are National Security issues due to the large amount of imported oil > from less than friendly cultures. People are generally disgusted > with importing oil from less than friendly cultures. Yes, but where is the support for a gas tax that will further limit consumption. I'll know when folks are serious about it when they agree to a $3.00/gal tax matched with a tax rebate program that renders a net neutral disincentive to use gasoline. This will happen when 1) It just froze over 2) Pigs fly 3) Fill in the blank. > Environmental concerns over Greenhouse Gas emissions. > Environmental concerns over pollution emissions. / Medical concerns over > pollution emissions. > People worry about future "Gas Price Shocks" such as we had last summer. > Large auto manufacturers see startups like Tesla as a "Threat". Well, that all sounds good, but the numbers don't seem to match. According to CNN, SUV and Trucks are now outselling cars again http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/22/autos/trucks_back/ I think that folks are very interested in other people sacrificing for the environment and to stop those nasty folks in the Mid-East from getting more money. But, as long as gasoline prices stay under $3.00 (which I expect for the next 5 yearsthe June peak was a bubble), not much will be done to change buying habits. > It seems to me that you are looking at where we are with an eye >to the next few years. I'm looking at where the trends seem to be >taking us with and eye to the next decade, maybe 2. That difference in >range can give a lot of variance to what the trends will tell you. Amirite? I'm just trying to get the best
Tesla Bluestar
Tesla Roadster = Blackstar Tesla Model SO = Whitestar Proposed Tesla family vehicle = Bluestar http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10049993-54.html Tesla Motors has received many accolades for producing an all-electric luxury sports car. But its long-term plans may hold its most challenging task: making a mass-market electric car. The company intends to make a "family car" that it hopes will lead to the sale of millions of all-electric vehicles, JB Straubel, Tesla's chief technology officer, said Wednesday. He spoke earlier on a panel on "green transportation" at the EmTech 2008 conference here. Code-named Bluestar, the car has been part of Tesla's plans for a few years. Tesla Chairman Elon Musk earlier this month was quoted as saying that the goal is to produce a car priced in the $20,000 to $30,000 range, possibly in partnership with other automakers. Next out of Tesla's factories will be the Model S, a luxury sports sedan with a price tag of about $60,000 due out at the end of 2010. >From the same technology base, Tesla intends to develop a series of vehicles including a minivan, coupe, and light pick-up truck which could be used in fleets, Straubel said. Technology from that Model S line may also make its way into the follow-on Bluestar line, he said. "It could use the same or similar architecture, and we may partner with an existing OEM (original equipment manufacturer) to leverage their scale," Straubel said. "(But) lower cost is the target." The goal is to be able to produce hundreds of thousands of these cars per year, he said. Leveraging existing technologies, such as its battery pack and powertrain, would help speed development. "With Bluestar, we're looking at cost and lowering the overall expense to the user. If it's not cost-competitive (with oil), you are going to have a hard time scaling to a high level," Straubel said. China and other fast-growing economies could be good markets for the Bluestar, he said. Straubel said Tesla welcomes more electric car variants to the market, such as the Chevy Volt and Chrysler's recently announced line. The introduction of these cars and the release of the Tesla Roadster have helped changed the image of electric vehicles as "golf carts." But he said that Tesla's all-electric technology, as opposed to a plug-in hybrid with a battery and internal combustion engine, gives it certain advantages. The smaller battery in plug-in hybrids translates into more charging cycles, which means that they will need to be replaced sooner. "You lower the wear and tear as you make batteries bigger. Also, you're pushing the envelope with bigger batteries and taking a bigger technology leap," he said. Straubel said there are different motivations for interest in electric cars but energy security--a desire to reduce imported oil--seems to be the biggest driver, ahead of environmental concerns. "Our goal is to change the transportation energy mix. To do that, you need a meaningful volume of cars," he said. "A family car is one market that means scale." ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Pentagon installs LED lighting
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10134721-54.html Take that! CFLs!! xponent In Sight Maru rob ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years?
- Original Message - From: "Dan M" To: "'Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion'" Sent: Thursday, January 08, 2009 9:14 PM Subject: RE: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years? > >> The Tesla is not the best example one could use. I think the Heuliez Will >> is a better example of an electric vehicle that is just about there. The >> price should be around 27-34K (when it hits market) and the car can do 0 >> - 60 in around 10 seconds with a top speed of 87MPH and has a range >> of248 >> miles. > > Yes, but if you read what they write carefully, they never say that they > can > go with long range and carry a full passenger load. If you compare it > with > domestic sub-compact cars, it looks as though its maximum range version > will > carry about the same as a 11k sub-compact car. > >> It >> is not as sexy as the Tesla, but it is much more of a reply to peoples >> needs than the Tesla and costs should go down as more are manufactured. > > And, it's still being designed, according to the manufacturers. Costs go > up > and performance goes down on vaporware cars, in my experience. Yes, it > hit > the auto show, but its not going to be produced for a year or more, and we > all know how that can change things. Basically, who but a rich > environmentalist would buy a car like this at 3x the price of a comparable > gas engine car that gets 40-50 mpg highway? > Sheesh Dan! You are exaggerating your argument a bit don't you think? Looking around, I can't find many cars that are even close to 11K MSRP excepting a few Kias and the Toyota Yaris Chevy Aveo, and Nissan Versa; and none of them are getting the kind of gas mileage you specify. Indeed, only the Yaris breaks 30 MPG. (Granted, cars are selling at an average of 14.9% below MSRP these days) Vaporware? Heck, the car is an example of a design I prefer, and one that looks to be adopted by other manufacturers. As I've mentioned before, all the attention is focused on the high end vehicles, and the manufacturers of such claim they will work their way down the pyramid so that the eventual low end auto buyers will reap the most benefit of cost reductions when they are able to purchase a BEV/HBEV. The big existing manufacturers are starting near the middle of their lines and working "out" from there, starting with hybrids. I like the "Active Wheel" design because the energy is being used as close to the pavement as possible, and not being wasted spinning drive shafts and transmissions. That was the point of using that particular car as an example, plus that a giant like Michelin was working on the design. (Personally, I don't find that particular model/body style to be too interesting. It looks like something out of the 70s.) I understand the argument you are trying to make. The key is battery development. And there are economic issues that could miscarry the entire trend... if normal and simple economics were to hold sway. But I don't think those kinds of economic arguments will hold in the long run. There is political will running in from several directions that will create a sort of ad hoc alliance to promote hybrids and BEVs. It appears that concern over "Peak Oil" is growing. There are National Security issues due to the large amount of imported oil from less than friendly cultures. People are generally disgusted with importing oil from less than friendly cultures. Environmental concerns over Greenhouse Gas emissions. Environmental concerns over pollution emissions. / Medical concerns over pollution emissions. People worry about future "Gas Price Shocks" such as we had last summer. Large auto manufacturers see startups like Tesla as a "Threat". There are also some "seedling" issues. Potential fuel tax increases that would bring us to par with Europe. The decreased "cost of ownership" potential for electrics. (Up to an order of magnitude fewer moving parts, less need for maintenance[almost none], practically no oil products used except for joint lube etc...) Electricity is cheaper than gas (cost/mile) The possibility that congested and polluted cities could outlaw ICE use in certain districts (London Frex) It seems to me that you are looking at where we are with an eye to the next few years. I'm looking at where the trends seem to be taking us with and eye to the next decade, maybe 2. That difference in range can give a lot of variance to what the trends will tell you. Amirite? xponent Electromotive Forces Maru rob ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
