Re: best inference
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], Rich Ulrich [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On Wed, 21 Nov 2001 10:24:54 -0600, Bill Jefferys [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Dennis Roberts) wrote: #on this near holiday ... at least in the usa ... i wonder if you might #consider for a moment: # #what is the SINGLE most valuable concept/procedure/skill (just one!) ... #that you would think is most important when it comes to passing along to #students studying inferential statistics # #what i am mainly looking for would be answers like: # #the notion of # #being able to do __ I'd say the notion of inverse probability, but of course that's because of where I am coming from :-) I'd say, being able to re-frame the researcher's fuzzy curiosity as a testable hypothesis -- I think *that* is where you get the probability that is to be inverted. Good hypothesizing would not be so valuable except that it is rare. And there are so many people who are close to it, and need it. So it ought to be valuable, as a commodity in demand. This is even PRE-statistics. As a commodity, at least, the notion of inverse probability is less valuable because it is out of reach. It is of concern, I think, to the people who have finally achieved a p-value, and wonder what to do next. On the contrary, the notion of inverse probability is a probability concept, and understanding probability needs to come well before trying to do a statistics. How can one discuss a p-value, which is a probability statement, otherwise? Understanding probability does NOT mean being able to compute it. I do not advocate the rash calculation of inverse probabilities with respect to a convenient prior, but the use of preassigned p-values as decision criteria fail on even a cursory use of a decision formulation. No calculations are required. The p-value is considered, along with other statistics. (Actually, I don't have a quick opinion, but I thought Promoting Tests was a good way to pull Dennis's leg.) -- This address is for information only. I do not claim that these views are those of the Statistics Department or of Purdue University. Herman Rubin, Dept. of Statistics, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette IN47907-1399 [EMAIL PROTECTED] Phone: (765)494-6054 FAX: (765)494-0558 = Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: best inference
This is not a big holiday in Sweden, but I'll be brief anyway, throwing in some personal thoughts: Understanding that the notion of relationship between (two) variables have different aspects. Like correlation measures, statistical effect, explanatory power, consistency, mechanism ... And that finding a p- value or a CI of one aspect is only a small piece of the puzzle. Rolf Dalin on this near holiday ... at least in the usa ... i wonder if you might consider for a moment: what is the SINGLE most valuable concept/procedure/skill (just one!) ... that you would think is most important when it comes to passing along to students studying inferential statistics what i am mainly looking for would be answers like: the notion of being able to do __ that sort of thing something that if ANY instructor in stat, say at the introductory level failed to discuss and emphasize ... he/she is really missing the boat and doing a disservice to students _ dennis roberts, educational psychology, penn state university 208 cedar, AC 8148632401, mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/drober~1.htm = Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ = = Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: best inference
Alan McLean wrote: Happy holiday, Dennis. I have two answers to this question - pick one! First, the recognition that all of statistics, but particularly inference, is about providing, and assessing the strength of, evidence - in circumstances where some measurement(s) can sensibly be defined, and these measurements are in some manner repeated - as to the probable usefulness of some proposal about those measurements. I think I'd second this. Assessing strength of evidence in uncertain situations. Thom = Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: best inference
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Dennis Roberts) wrote: #on this near holiday ... at least in the usa ... i wonder if you might #consider for a moment: # #what is the SINGLE most valuable concept/procedure/skill (just one!) ... #that you would think is most important when it comes to passing along to #students studying inferential statistics # #what i am mainly looking for would be answers like: # #the notion of # #being able to do __ I'd say the notion of inverse probability, but of course that's because of where I am coming from :-) Bill -- Bill Jefferys/Department of Astronomy/University of Texas/Austin, TX 78712 Email: replace 'warthog' with 'clyde' | Homepage: quasar.as.utexas.edu I report spammers to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Finger for PGP Key: F7 11 FB 82 C6 21 D8 95 2E BD F7 6E 99 89 E1 82 Unlawful to use this email address for unsolicited ads: USC Title 47 Sec 227 = Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: best inference
Dennis Roberts wrote:
on this near holiday ... at least in the usa ... i wonder if you might
consider for a moment:
what is the SINGLE most valuable concept/procedure/skill (just one!) ...
that you would think is most important when it comes to passing along to
students studying inferential statistics
what i am mainly looking for would be answers like:
the notion of
being able to do __
that sort of thing
something that if ANY instructor in stat, say at the introductory level
failed to discuss and emphasize ... he/she is really missing the boat and
doing a disservice to students
Most statistical tests calculations, the inference types, assume that
Newton's Laws work. that is, that the world is systematic and predictable.
and yes, that includes quantum mechanics when it applies.
An intro instructor should spend time emphasizing that systems have inputs
outputs and links between them. Once you ask what those links are, you have
a justification and hints for how to do the stats.
More cold calls _may_ produce more sales. More personal attention at point
of sale ('service') _may_ generate more repeat business. A different method
for reviewing a chapter _may_ produce a higher test score. A higher furnace
temperature _may_ reduce scrap in braze joints.
If you don't believe such links exist, then there is no sense in doing the
stat course. Or much else, for that matter.
Jay
--
Jay Warner
Principal Scientist
Warner Consulting, Inc.
North Green Bay Road
Racine, WI 53404-1216
USA
Ph: (262) 634-9100
FAX: (262) 681-1133
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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The A2Q Method (tm) -- What do you want to improve today?
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Re: best inference
On Wed, 21 Nov 2001 10:24:54 -0600, Bill Jefferys [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Dennis Roberts) wrote: #on this near holiday ... at least in the usa ... i wonder if you might #consider for a moment: # #what is the SINGLE most valuable concept/procedure/skill (just one!) ... #that you would think is most important when it comes to passing along to #students studying inferential statistics # #what i am mainly looking for would be answers like: # #the notion of # #being able to do __ I'd say the notion of inverse probability, but of course that's because of where I am coming from :-) I'd say, being able to re-frame the researcher's fuzzy curiosity as a testable hypothesis -- I think *that* is where you get the probability that is to be inverted. Good hypothesizing would not be so valuable except that it is rare. And there are so many people who are close to it, and need it. So it ought to be valuable, as a commodity in demand. As a commodity, at least, the notion of inverse probability is less valuable because it is out of reach. It is of concern, I think, to the people who have finally achieved a p-value, and wonder what to do next. (Actually, I don't have a quick opinion, but I thought Promoting Tests was a good way to pull Dennis's leg.) -- Rich Ulrich, [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.pitt.edu/~wpilib/index.html = Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
Re: best inference
Happy holiday, Dennis. I have two answers to this question - pick one! First, the recognition that all of statistics, but particularly inference, is about providing, and assessing the strength of, evidence - in circumstances where some measurement(s) can sensibly be defined, and these measurements are in some manner repeated - as to the probable usefulness of some proposal about those measurements. That one comes out fairly clumsy, as a result of trying to be very careful. You may prefer my second answer: The recognition that all concepts/procedures/skills in statistics are closely interrelated and you cannot sensibly pick out one! Regards, Alan Dennis Roberts wrote: on this near holiday ... at least in the usa ... i wonder if you might consider for a moment: what is the SINGLE most valuable concept/procedure/skill (just one!) ... that you would think is most important when it comes to passing along to students studying inferential statistics what i am mainly looking for would be answers like: the notion of being able to do __ that sort of thing something that if ANY instructor in stat, say at the introductory level failed to discuss and emphasize ... he/she is really missing the boat and doing a disservice to students _ dennis roberts, educational psychology, penn state university 208 cedar, AC 8148632401, mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] http://roberts.ed.psu.edu/users/droberts/drober~1.htm = Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ = -- Alan McLean ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics Monash University, Caulfield Campus, Melbourne Tel: +61 03 9903 2102Fax: +61 03 9903 2007 = Instructions for joining and leaving this list and remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES are available at http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ =
