Re: [Goanet] Currency Values

2007-11-20 Thread Mario Goveia
Date: Mon, 19 Nov 2007 10:20:03 -0800 (PST)
From: Mervyn Lobo [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Mario,
I have tried to make this as clear as I can, the 5.1%
rate used, once again, is the privately calculated US
inflation rate.  No one trusts US govt numbers
anymore. This is not difficult to understand, it is
only difficult to accept. If you want, you can call
the rate any name that is acceptable to you ;-)  The
name is of no concern to me.

Mario responds:

Mervyn,

The first thing one needs to do if one finds oneself
in a hole is to stop digging:-))

I went back and looked at your original response to
Vivian on this subject.  You said inflation in the US
was running at 5.1%.  Unfortunately, you also said,
As you know, the US has an unique method of measuring
inflation. It does not take into account the cost of
food and petrol.  This suggested that you were
referring to an official US inflation rate, not some
private rate, because why would a private rate used in
making investments exclude the cost of food and
medicines.

Subsequently, you said that the 5.1% was a rate used
by non-US investors in lending to US businesses.  This
actually made some sense.

Now you are saying your 5.1% is THE privately
calculated US inflation rate, as if there is an
official privately calculated US inflation rate.

Regarding your other opinions about the US, you are
entitled to them.

Mervyn wrote:

All I am concerned about is using this rate to make
money.

Mario responds:

Good luck.   

Mervyn wrote:

PS. This is my last comment on this topic. Only you
and Bibi Bhandari out of 14,000 people here have not
understood my point. I can live peacefully with that
success rate.

Mario responds:

You would be surprised at what we have understood:-))

I hope you are as perspicacious at guessing the US
inflation rate as you are at guessing what 14,000
Goanetters have understood, which you have no way of
knowing.




[Goanet] Currency Values

2007-11-19 Thread Mario Goveia
Mervyn Lobo mervynalobo at yahoo.ca
Fri Nov 16 08:53:52 PST 2007 wrote:

Mario,
The worthiness of official US Govt info took a nose
dive after they announced that Iraq had WMD and was
ready to attack in 45 minutes. Since then, no one
trusts their info. Financial firms are collecting
their own US inflation numbers to make long term
decisions.

Mario responds:

You are entitled to your own opinions, but not to your
own facts.

a) You are obviously misinformed about the issue of
WMDs in Iraq, which was believed to have had WMDs by
the intelligence agencies of the entire world.
Subsequently, a number of WMDs and related materials
were found in Iraq, which has not been reported in
most of the media.  See,
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=50746

b) You are free to trust any information you please.

c) Financial institutions and investors are free to
use any projections they choose to in conducting their
business.  Such projections have nothing to do with
the official US inflation figures published by the US
Bureau of Labor, Department of Labor Statistics, which
are calculated by a standardized procedure.

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/#data

d) In addition, as I have shown, your repeated
assertions that the US ROUTINELY excludes the prices
of food and gasoline in their inflation calculations
were simply misinformed.  

A communist is someone who reads Marx.  An
anti-communist is someone who understands Marx. -
paraphrasing Ronald Reagan.





Re: [Goanet] Currency values

2007-11-19 Thread Mervyn Lobo
Mario Goveia wrote:
 Even Mervyn Lobo has now confirmed that the 5.1% he
 had mentioned was a rate used by non-US lenders when
 making loans to American businesses, which would be a
 hurdle rate that is always higher than the inflation
 rate by an amount that reflects the lender's perceived
 risk in the investment.  BTW, we MBAs learn this stuff
 in Finance-101:-))




Mario,
I have tried to make this as clear as I can, the 5.1% rate used, once again, is 
the privately calculated US inflation rate. No one trusts US govt numbers 
anymore. This is not difficult to understand, it is only difficult to accept. 
If you want, you can call the rate any name that is acceptable to you ;-)  The 
name is of no concern to me.


All I am concerned about is using this rate to make money. Personally, I think 
that the US inflation rate is much higher than 5.1%. The market seems to think 
the same way too as evidenced by this years depreciation of the US dollar. The 
good folks at OPEC, the ones that have money coming out of their ears, now want 
to sell their oil in currencies other than the US dollar. They too have started 
to realize the rate the US dollar is falling in value.

Mervyn3.0
PS. This is my last comment on this topic. Only you and Bibi Bhandari out of 
14,000 people here have not understood my point. I can live peacefully with 
that success rate.


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Re: [Goanet] Currency values

2007-11-17 Thread Mervyn Lobo
Mario Goveia wrote:
 So, let me get back to safer ground by using the
 official US government statistical information since
 the entire financial world uses this as their primary
 reference on information about the US, other than
 those who confuse US government statistics with US
 government policy or pronouncements by US politicians
 that they may agree or disagree with.



Mario,
The worthiness of official US Govt info took a nose dive after they announced 
that Iraq had WMD and was ready to attack in 45 minutes. Since then, no one 
trusts their info. Financial firms are collecting their own US inflation 
numbers to make long term decisions.


Secondly, the worth of the US dollar is falling because:
1) Inflation is at a benign 2.8%
2) Inflation really is double that rate.


You take you pick on which one you want to believe.  


In the meantime, Goans and everyone else whose income is linked to the US 
dollar are scrambling for ways to de-link themselves from the scourge. Kuwait, 
Kuwait of all countries is the latest to de-link their peg to the US currency. 
In effect, they are going to repay their US debts at cheaper exchange rates.

 
 Most investors make and lose money no matter what happens in any economy.  
 
This one is hilarious. Thanks.
 
Mervyn3.0
Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it, misdiagnosing it, and 
then misapplying the wrong remedies. 
- Marx -


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Re: [Goanet] Currency values - response to Gabe

2007-11-17 Thread Mario Goveia
Date: Wed, 14 Nov 2007 15:27:43 +
From: Gabe Menezes [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Mario has claimed to be an MBA. Therefore I am taken
aback that he had to resort to Google, to try and
fathom out what is really going on w.r.t inflation
gauging in the USA.

Mario asks:

Gabe says he is taken aback that I used Google. 
Hanh?!  Does this mean I'm supposed to avoid Google to
post reference materials to show that I am not making
up facts in a discussion?  How does this compute as we
MBAs are used to saying among ourselves? :-))

Besides, what does my MBA, which, BTW, is from the
University of Michigan in Ann Arbor for those familiar
with MBAs, have anything to do with the questions I
raised?  I did learn to use recognizable facts, to
connect the dots and to support my facts and opinions
with independent information.  But you really don't
need an MBA for that.  Just common sense.

Gabe Menezes wrote:

Just this hour, Bernanke spoke in depth about trying
to better achieve transparency, regarding inflation
and that the Fed is working on this.

The Fed still hasn't recovered the plot: core vs.
headline inflation again.

Let me quote from the Testimony of Chairman Ben S.
Bernanke, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the
Congress, before the Committee on Financial Services,
U.S. House of Representatives July
18, 2007

Sizable increases in food and energy prices have
boosted overall inflation and eroded real incomes in
recent months--both unwelcome developments. 

I believe that the interest rates in the USA, do not
fully reflect the inflation rate; also the Fed is
under sever constraints politically and had to cut
interest rates to accommodate the fall out debacle of
the Sub Prime loans.

Mario asks:

What do the comments summarized above have anything to
do with the information that I questioned in my post
of November 12 that US inflation was 5.1% and that the
US routinely excluded the cost of food and gasoline
when calculating inflation?  See,
http://lists.goanet.org/pipermail/goanet-goanet.org/2007-November/064664.html

Even Mervyn Lobo has now confirmed that the 5.1% he
had mentioned was a rate used by non-US lenders when
making loans to American businesses, which would be a
hurdle rate that is always higher than the inflation
rate by an amount that reflects the lender's perceived
risk in the investment.  BTW, we MBAs learn this stuff
in Finance-101:-))

I also showed that the US Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics publishes inflation rates with
food and gasoline included as well as an adjusted rate
that excludes food and gasoline. See box in upper
right hand in,
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/#data

So, Mervyn was not wrong; he was only half right
because he did not seem to be aware of the inflation
rate that included food and gasoline.

Gabe Menezes wrote:

Mario should know this, as his neighbour hood is one
of the worst hit areas in the USA, with run down
buildings and distressed 'Repo sales signs'. An
USD300,000 home is a substantial home, by any measure
in Toledo; the equivalent ?150,000 would at best buy a
studio flat (one bedroom) in London.

Mario responds:

Again, what does the condition of my neighbor hood
have to do with the topic under discussion, even if
these gratuitous comments about my neighbor hood
were accurate, which they are not???

Besides none of my neighbors are hoods:-))

Getting back to Gabe's comments, how could anyone who
claims to have acute analytical skills compare a
mid-sized mid-Western city in one country with a
national capital like London in another country?  An
MBA would never do that.  Wouldn't a more appropriate
comparison use cities like Washington, DC, or New York
City, when making comparisons with London?  

BTW, I love London where the beer is warm and they pay
absurd prices to live in quaint, dingy old tenements
with a lot of history behind them.  I mean a LOT of
history:-))

Gabe Menezes wrote:

So much for the cock and bull story, as espoused by
Mario, that the poor in the USA are the equivalent, if
not better off than the middle class European.

Mario responds:

The alleged cock and bull story that Gabe is
referring to has not been part of this discussion,
until Gabe has now made it a part. 

However, anyone familiar with the US and Europe would
know that many people considered poor in America do
enjoy a standard of living that is at least as good as
that of many middle-income Europeans.  Actually, there
is no need to believe me, or anyone who makes
not-so-acute analytical comparisons - come see for
yourself.  If you disagree, fine.  You are entitled to
your own opinion.  I am entitled to mine.

My advice to those who read critical comments about
the USA, especially by those who had applied for
residency in the US and been rejected, is to ask
yourself why the US has been for centuries, and
continues to be today, a magnet for immigrants from
around the world.  We have somewhere between 12 and 20
million illegal aliens floating around for God's sake,
determined to be a 

[Goanet] currency values

2007-11-17 Thread Bhandare
Dear All:

once again bwana mervyn is dancing around the bushes
...

to recap:

mervyn said the the inflation index doesnt include
food and fuel..
mario responded  that it does..

the FACt is there are different indices and some
exclude certain items..so to be fair to mervyn and
mario both are correct..

the second statement that mervyn made was inflation
rate is 5.1 % 
mario challenged the number  and mervyn hasnt till
date clarified..

i think that mario is right that 5.1% is the hurdle
rate ..its upto mervyn to provide us with thelnk from
where he got his 5.1 % figure..

if he cant that means he is seriously misinformed ...

as regards gabe he made some noises too but those are
to be ignored :-)

personally i am glad none of the involved parties
blamed BJP/RSS?VHP for the economic woes of the US

b


  

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Re: [Goanet] Currency values

2007-11-15 Thread Mario Goveia

* GOANET  C * O * M * M * U * N * I * T * Y  E * V * E * N * T *

  Xavier Center of Historical Research  presents  HISTORY HOUR

   TOPIC:  Waste Wise - An Interactive Awareness Presentation
on Waste Management in Goa

  SPEAKER:  Clinton Vaz - November 16, 2007 - 5:30pm

  VISIT: http://tinyurl.com/222757

Date: Tue, 13 Nov 2007 11:37:15 -0800 (PST)
From: Mervyn Lobo [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Mario,
I do believe your absence from Goanet has done us all
good. 

Mario responds:

Unfortunately, my absence has also enabled some to
post erroneous information unchallenged.

Mervyn wote:

The first link to numbers you provided below is not
directly from a Govt department. I guess you, like
others here, do not trust US govt info anymore?

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx

Mario responds:

I see you have decided to defend the indefensible,
without providing us with the source of YOUR
unrecognizable US inflation rate of 5.1%.

To begin with, contrary to your snide insinuation, I
do trust such US government information which is
produced by professionals with no political axe to
grind.

What difference does it make if I use official US
government information directly or indirectly?

If you had done even a little research you would have
found that the source I used did in fact used the US
Department of Labor, Bureau of Statistics as their
source, as can be seen by comparing their chart of
Consumer Price Indices with the one in the following
US government URL:

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt

Mervyn writes:

It is always interesting to read what official govt
policy is. Some people go along happily with what
their president/govt tells them. These people are
usually the ones that pay for the mistakes of
politicians. Others, who can monitor the effects of
govt policy, stand to profit from the same mistakes.
Let me give you an example. At every chance he gets,
 the US Sec of Treasury stands up and says that the US
has an official strong dollar policy.  Everyone who
lives outside the US and who deals with US dollars
knows that the US dollar is getting weaker by the day.
There is money to be made with this info. 

Mario responds:

In addition to government policies, I also find it
interesting to read the various opinions
about such policies by disparate individuals, each
from their own bias and point of view.

However, while everyone is entitled to their own
opinions, they are not entitled to their own facts.

None of your commentary above has anything to do with
the unrecognizable inflation rate you published or
what the US includes or excludes in calculating
inflation rates.  Most investors make and lose money
no matter what happens in any economy.  Most will
never brag about investments where they lose money.

Mervyn wrote:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Consumer_Price_Index

If you do not have the time to read the entire page, I
understand. However, let me know your thoughts after
you read the following excerpt from the link.

The core CPI index excludes goods with high price
volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of
core inflation systematically excludes food and energy
prices because, historically, they have been highly
volatile and non-systemic. More specifically, food and
energy prices are widely thought to be subject to
large changes that often fail to  persist and do not
represent relative price changes. In many instances,
large movements in food and energy prices arise
because of supply disruptions such as drought or
OPEC-led cutbacks in production.

Mario responds:

After remarking somewhat critically that I had not
used official US government information directly,
which I had used indirectly through an independent
inflation-monitoring website, you are now curiously
referring me to an unofficial free-for-all website
called Wikipedia where one has to be very careful of
the information since individuals are allowed to edit
much of the content and may bring their personal
biases to what they write.

So, let me get back to safer ground by using the
official US government statistical information since
the entire financial world uses this as their primary
reference on information about the US, other than
those who confuse US government statistics with US
government policy or pronouncements by US politicians
that they may agree or disagree with.

There are many uses for the information that the US
government produces, some you may be unfamiliar with. 
For example, Consumer Price Indices and their growth
rates are published with several different adjustments
made for various purposes.

I refer you to the official US Department of Labor,
Bureau of 

Re: [Goanet] Currency values

2007-11-14 Thread Gabe Menezes
On 12/11/2007, Mario Goveia [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 Mario responds:
 
 I was surprised to read this as I did not recognize
 two of the assertions made therein: a) that inflation
 in the US is running at 5.1%, and b) that the US
 excludes the cost of food and gasoline (petrol) in
 calculating US inflation.

RESPONSE: Mario has claimed to be an MBA. Therefore I am taken aback
that he had to resort to Google, to try and fathom out what is really
going on w.r.t inflation gauging in the USA. Both the USA and the UK
rely on a narrower gauge for inflation, the reasons stated, that both
food and energy are volatile items.

I saw an T.V. programme last night stipulating that, if true inflation
rate was given, then the Governments would be for bigger pay rise
increase demands.

Just this hour, Bernanke spoke in depth about trying to better achieve
transparency, regarding inflation and that the Fed is working on this.

I am neither an economist nor a C.A.; I believe though that I have
acute analytical skills. For the sake of good order and clarification,
I have picked up an article in the F.T. which should, hopefully shed
light on the subject being debated:-

The Fed still hasn't recovered

The Fed still hasn't recovered the plot: core vs. headline inflation again

Oh boy…

Let me quote from the Testimony of Chairman Ben S. Bernanke,
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, before the
Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives July
18, 2007

Sizable increases in food and energy prices have boosted overall
inflation and eroded real incomes in recent months--both unwelcome
developments. As measured by changes in the price index for personal
consumption expenditures (PCE inflation), inflation ran at an annual
rate of 4.4 percent over the first five months of this year, a rate
that, if maintained, would clearly be inconsistent with the objective
of price stability (footnote in original: Despite the recent surge,
total PCE inflation is 2.3 percent over the past twelve months).
Because monetary policy works with a lag, however, policymakers must
focus on the economic outlook. Food and energy prices tend to be quite
volatile, so that, looking forward, core inflation (which excludes
food and energy prices) may be a better gauge than overall inflation
of underlying inflation trends. Core inflation has moderated slightly
over the past few months, with core PCE inflation coming in at an
annual rate of about 2 percent so far this year.

Here we have the Chairman of the Fed reassuring us that inflation is
under control because, when you strip out the items in the price index
with the highest inflation rates, the inflation rate of the remainder
is only slightly above target.

ends
For a full read please click on the to the URL below:

http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2007/07/the-fed-still-h.html

I believe that the interest rates in the USA, do not fully reflect the
inflation rate; also the Fed is under sever constraints politically
and had to cut interest rates to accommodate the fall out debacle of
the Sub Prime loans.

Mario should know this, as his neighbour hood is one of the worst hit
areas in the USA, with run down buildings and distressed 'Repo sales
signs'. An USD300,000 home is a substantial home, by any measure in
Toledo; the equivalent £150,000 would at best buy a studio flat ( one
bedroom) in London.

So much for the cock and bull story, as espoused by Mario, that the
poor in the USA are the equivalent, if not better off than the middle
class European.

-- 
DEV BOREM KORUM.

Gabe Menezes.
London, England


Re: [Goanet] Currency values

2007-11-13 Thread Mervyn Lobo
Mario Goveia wrote:
 I was surprised to read this as I did not recognize
 two of the assertions made therein: a) that inflation
 in the US is running at 5.1%, and b) that the US
 excludes the cost of food and gasoline (petrol) in
 calculating US inflation.


Mario,
I do believe your absence from Goanet has done us all good. It is so nice to 
see you sticking only to the subject mater here.

The first link to numbers you provided below is not directly from a Govt 
department. I guess you, like others here, do not trust US govt info anymore?

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx


 Frequently asked questions from the US Bureau of Labor
 Statistics about how the US consumer price index is
 calculated:
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm#Question_7


It is always interesting to read what official govt policy is. Some people go 
along happily with what their president/govt tells them. These people are 
usually the ones that pay for the mistakes of politicians. Others, who can 
monitor the effects of govt policy, stand to profit from the same mistakes. Let 
me give you an example. At every chance he gets, the US Sec of Treasury stands 
up and says that the US has an official strong dollar policy.  Everyone who 
lives outside the US and who deals with US dollars knows that the US dollar is 
getting weaker by the day. There is money to be made with this info. 
 
 
Goans who have their salaries tied to the value of the US dollar are hurting. 
Those who are not, are enjoying boom times. Unfortunately, I do not have a site 
where you can read about this phenomena.


I do however have a site that gives the basic info about how inflation is 
calculated in the US. It also gives some criticism (not by me ;-) on why the 
method is less than perfect. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Consumer_Price_Index


If you do not have the time to read the entire page, I understand. However, let 
me know your thoughts after you read the following excerpt from the link.


The core CPI index excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and 
energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy 
prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile and non-systemic. 
More specifically, food and energy prices are widely thought to be subject to 
large changes that often fail to persist and do not represent relative price 
changes. In many instances, large movements in food and energy prices arise 
because of supply disruptions such as drought or OPEC-led cutbacks in 
production.



While it may be difficult for the US govt to track food and energy prices, it 
is not difficult for me. Every time I am in the US, I get charged more for the 
same goods and services. I would not notice a 3% increase in prices. However, I 
do notice larger increases. For example, I remember paying less than $1 per 
gallon for petrol when I was in  US college in the US in the 1990's. Last 
summer on my way to Disneyland, I paid $3.20 per gallon. 
 
Non-US financial institutions lending money to US businesses are using a 5.1% 
inflation rate to see if projects are viable. These are the institutions that 
do not have a financial crises on their hands today.
 
 
Mervyn3.0
PS. Taking about Disneyland, how about the following?
Hard to fathom.
Disneyland Park in Anaheim, Calif., plans to close down the It's a Small World 
attraction for a 10-month renovation because the waterway boats are getting 
stuck. Loads that are heavier than those anticipated 43 years ago, when the 
ride opened, are causing the craft to bottom out. When there's a stuck boat, 
staff must go back into the attraction and lighten the load by asking one or 
two passengers to leave the boat. This is not happening because today's park 
patrons are getting fatter, Disneyland insists. The boats get stuck because 
layers and layers of thick glass-fibre have built up where maintenance teams 
have repeatedly repaired them. To avoid any hard feelings, customers who are 
asked to leave a boat are presented with food vouchers.
Source: Los Angeles Times


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[Goanet] currency values - complete post

2007-11-13 Thread Bhandare
Dear All:

If mario Goveia is correct it means that our gaunthi
Soros is seriously misinformed and what is worse is
that he is freely disseminating his factually
incorrect information with impunity on goanet.

I am waiting for an clarification.

Mervyn is probably talking about the core CPI which
excludes fuel and food...

for those interested more one can visit
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/inflation/us-inflation/cpi.cfm



  

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[Goanet] Currency values

2007-11-12 Thread Mario Goveia
Mervyn Lobo mervynalobo at yahoo.ca
Sat Nov 10 19:59:47 PST 2007 wrote:

Inflation in the US is running at 5.1%. As you know,
the US has an unique method of measuring inflation. It
does not take into account the cost of food and
petrol. Maybe this is because US residents are not
concerned about those two components. Pensioners
living in the US are faced with the prospect of losing
half the purchasing power of their pensions if they
live over ten years.

Mario responds:

I was surprised to read this as I did not recognize
two of the assertions made therein: a) that inflation
in the US is running at 5.1%, and b) that the US
excludes the cost of food and gasoline (petrol) in
calculating US inflation.

Shown below are two URLs that address these issues:

a) Historical Inflation data from 1914 to the present:

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx

The report's opening paragraph reads as follows:

The following table provides all the Inflation data
from 1914 to the Present. For the current inflation
rate data just since the year 2000, see Inflation
page. The Inflation rate is calculated from the
Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) which is compiled by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics and is based upon a 1982
Base of 100. To view the actual Consumer Price Index
data that this inflation data is calculated from, go
to the Historical CPI table.

Comment: The table shown in the URL indicates that US
inflation has been well below 5.1% for quite sometime.

b) What goods and services does the US CPI include?

Frequently asked questions from the US Bureau of Labor
Statistics about how the US consumer price index is
calculated:
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm#Question_7

The CPI represents all goods and services purchased
for consumption by the reference population (U or W)
BLS has classified all expenditure items into more
than 200 categories, arranged into eight major groups.
Major groups and examples of categories in each are as
follows: 

FOOD AND BEVERAGES (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee,
chicken, wine, service meals and snacks) 
HOUSING (rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent
rent, fuel oil, bedroom furniture) 
APPAREL (men's shirts and sweaters, women's dresses,
jewelry) 
TRANSPORTATION (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline,
motor vehicle insurance) 
MEDICAL CARE (prescription drugs and medical supplies,
physicians' services, eyeglasses and eye care,
hospital services) 
RECREATION (televisions, pets and pet products, sports
equipment, admissions); 
EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATION (college tuition, postage,
telephone services, computer software and
accessories); 
OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES (tobacco and smoking
products, haircuts and other personal services,
funeral expenses).

Comment: Food and gasoline (petrol) are specifically
mentioned as included by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, the official US Government agency that is
responsible for this data.





Re: [Goanet] Currency values

2007-11-10 Thread Mervyn Lobo
Vivian A. DSouza wrote:
  And what is this constant harping on the under-valued rupee?  
 The rupee has appreciated at least 25 percent against several 
 major currencies in the past year, and is bound to appreciate 
 further as the Indian economy booms. The undervalued rupee 
 is a mixed blessing. On the positive side, it contributes to the 
 export boom that India has experienced in recent years. As 
 the rupee appreciates, Indian Goods and Servides will  no longer 
 enjoy the advantage they have had so far in the international 
 marketplace. On the negative side it brings out the jealousy, 
 amongst those who make a living in the local economy, as 
 they see those who have returned from abroad able to afford 
 things that the locals cannot. That is life., But in the not too 
 distant future the disparity in incomes is bound to dissipate,
 as it has already begun to do.


Bwana D'Souza,
Until recently, the US dollar was a well managed currency. It was in short 
supply and thus valuable. We all know that when you buy a unit of a country's 
currency, you are buying a share of that country. It is similar to buying a 
share in a company. The less shares there are in the company, the more likely 
they will be worth a lot. 

In the past few years, the current US administration has been spending money 
like drunken sailors. Worse yet is when they ran out of money, they started to 
print more. Last week, communist China told the US that if it did not stop the 
weakness in the US currency. China would switch its foreign exchange reserves 
to other currencies. Saudi Arabia sent the same message. So did Sudan.

Inflation in the US is running at 5.1%. As you know, the US has an unique 
method of measuring inflation. It does not take into account the cost of food 
and petrol. Maybe this is because US residents are not concerned about those 
two components. Pensioners living in the US are faced with the prospect of 
losing half the purchasing power of their pensions if they live over ten years. 

India on the other hand, has suddenly found its currency appreciating. In part 
because its economy is expanding at a breathing taking rate and partly because 
the US dollar is sinking like a stone. Indian businesses dealing with US 
customers will soon feel the pain. As you have correctly pointed out, Goans 
working in the gulf will be in the same situation soon. On the other hand, 
Goans working in India will get wages that will soon close the gap between 
their cousins working in the gulf.
 
Mervyn3.0
PS. The depth of the US dollar crises finally hit me yesterday. I run the 
office pool for the local lotto. When I went to count the money of the people 
who had paid for tickets, I found someone had cheated me. Someone had slipped 
me two US 25 cent coins. Those coins were worth only 24 cents Canadian. I felt 
violated. I felt depressed. And especially so because after years of me 
slipping Canadian coins in the US, Americans were now (forced into?) doing the 
same trick on Canadians.


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