Re: [HCDX] New Sunspot Cycle 24: The Sun Awakens
A point of clarification: While these three sunspots are cycle 23 spots based on their polarities, never-the-less, my bulletin does not state that these sunspots are actually cycle 24 spots. Rather, I am pointing to the new level of activity as a possible waking up of the sun after a long period of quiet. And, that this could signal the gradual increase of solar activity expected of a newly starting cycle. Experts are not yet totally agreeing on the statistical end of cycle 23 - but are speculating that February 2008 was the statistical end. Whether or not these sunspots are oriented correctly to belong to a new cycle is not, in my opinion, as important to a radio operator as is the actual 10.7-cm flux levels, and the occurrence of space weather (flares, sunspots, and so forth). No one knows, yet, the certain end and start points. We'll know when we can look back at the data. Anyhow - some people are purists. I'm being nudged in my discussions about the orientation of these spots. They are not reversed. So, they must not be cycle 24's. However, that was not my point, and I still hold that, in terms of the statistical end point (probably in Feb 2008), this new level is part of the sun's waking moments. Take a look at the forecasted Flux levels for the next few days. 95!!! That's great for a radio operator on HF. Regardless of the orientation of the sunspots... And yes, we probably will see some very quiet points again. I'll venture, though, that they will be shorter and shorter as we move farther into 2008. - NW7US, Tomas ---[Start Commercial]- Order your WRTH 2008: http://www.hard-core-dx.com/redirect2.php?id=wrth2008 ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://www.gnu.org/licenses/dsl.html
[HCDX] New Sunspot Cycle 24: The Sun Awakens
Bulletin from Tomas Hood, NW7US: The Sun awakens in the early dawn of Sunspot Cycle 24 During the week of March 24, the Sun became quite active. This, after many months of long stretches of quiet, sunspot-less days. March 25 images of the sun revealed a train of sunspots, NOAA AR 0987 (a beta configuration), 0988 (a beta configuration), and 0989 (an alpha configuration). For many months prior, there would be an occasional sunspot, if any at all. These three sunspots indicate a sun that is waking up; there was even a strong M1-class solar flare on March 25, the first such strong flare in a long period of quiet (the last such flare was mid-2007). The M1.7 magnitude flare originated in sunspot 0989, which was on the very edge of the sun, not facing us. As this sunspot group rotates into what is known as geo-effective position, it may well cause intense radio blackouts and storms, while also strengthening the ionosphere, in turn creating great DX opportunities on higher HF frequencies during non-radio blackout periods. Radio blackouts occur during solar flares. On the same day, March 25, the solar flux (10.7-cm flux index) rose from the low 70's to the high of 89 (as of the time this is being written), and the flare caused minor storming and a radio blackout on HF. This is a great trend for those interested in using the high frequencies for radio communications. As we now move away from sunspot cycle minimum to the peak of cycle 24, sometime in the next three to five years, activity will increase. With this increase in activity will come better HF propagation on the higher portions of HF, while also bringing an increase in radio blackouts and geomagnetic storminess that is part of an active cycle. We're in for the exciting start of a new solar cycle! Some forecasters speculate that this solar cycle will not be too active. I still hold to one early forecast that speculates that the cycle may be a very active and exciting one. Time will tell! DX note: the forecast for March 26, 27, 28: Solar Flux expected to reach 90 to 95. This will increase higher frequency propagation on most DX paths. This is a time to be on the radio. (c) Tomas Hood, NW7US Contributing editor: CQ Magazine, CQ VHF, Popular Communications ---[Start Commercial]- Order your WRTH 2008: http://www.hard-core-dx.com/redirect2.php?id=wrth2008 ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://www.gnu.org/licenses/dsl.html
Re: [HCDX] HF radio signal propagation topics...
My apologies if this went out twice - I had a glitch with my e-mail program. On 6/4/07, Tomas Hood (NW7US) [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hello, fellow SWL'er and potential Amateur Radio Operator: 73 de NW7US ---[Start Commercial]- Preorder your WRTH 2007: http://www.hard-core-dx.com/redirect2.php?id=wrth2007 ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://www.gnu.org/licenses/dsl.html
[HCDX] Is HF propagation reciprocal? (and, De-mystifying HF propagation)
Hello, fellow SWL'er and potential Amateur Radio Operator: I'm letting this list know about some additions to my website ( http://hfradio.org/ ). These new pages contain information that many radio operators will find useful (based on the feedback I have gotten from this material when the original was published in CQ Magazine and Popular Communications Magazine). One would think that ionospheric radio propagation would be reciprocal. That is, the signal strength in one direction should be the same as in the reverse, or reciprocal, direction. In HF ray-trace theory, the distance is the same and the ionospheric control points-the points where the wave is reflected (or more properly, refracted) back to the ground-should be the same. This is an interesting topic for those using very low power, for example. Can your signal be heard well at the distant station, and can it compete with other signals that might be originated with a higher energy level? I explored this (is HF propagation reciprocal?) in a recent CQ Magazine Propagation column. I've posted the meat of the text at: http://hfradio.org/ace-hf/ace-hf-reciprocal.html I've also posted another recent CQ Magazine Propagation column, where I explored basic HF propagation concepts (De-mystifying HF signal propagation). This is interesting from the listener's perspective. You can find it here: http://hfradio.org/ace-hf/ace-hf-demystified.html I'm working on posting additional texts where I take various HF propagation topics, and use modern software to model the concepts. I hope that this is helpful to those of you wishing to dig deeper into space weather and radio signal propagation (especially on HF). 73 es gud DX Tomas Hood / NW7US / Heliophile http://propagation.hfradio.org -and- http://cw.hfradio.org/ : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : 122.93W 47.67N Brinnon, WA USA CN87 - QRP and CW/SSB/DIGI : : 10x56526 : FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57 : Lighthouse Scty #144 : : NAm QRP CW Club 1774 : QRP Amateur Radio Club Int'l 12781 : : Contributing editor on Wikipedia - Amateur Radio/Space WX : : The journey of life http://ic-discipleship-ministries.org : -- This message has been scanned for viruses and dangerous content by MailScanner, and is believed to be clean. ---[Start Commercial]- Preorder your WRTH 2007: http://www.hard-core-dx.com/redirect2.php?id=wrth2007 ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://www.gnu.org/licenses/dsl.html
[HCDX] HF radio signal propagation topics...
Hello, fellow SWL'er and potential Amateur Radio Operator: I'm letting this list know about some additions to my website ( http://hfradio.org/ ). These new pages contain information that many radio operators will find useful (based on the feedback I have gotten from this material when the original was published in CQ Magazine and Popular Communications Magazine). One would think that ionospheric radio propagation would be reciprocal. That is, the signal strength in one direction should be the same as in the reverse, or reciprocal, direction. In HF ray-trace theory, the distance is the same and the ionospheric control points-the points where the wave is reflected (or more properly, refracted) back to the ground-should be the same. This is an interesting topic for those using very low power, for example. Can your signal be heard well at the distant station, and can it compete with other signals that might be originated with a higher energy level? I explored this (is HF propagation reciprocal?) in a recent CQ Magazine Propagation column. I've posted the meat of the text at: http://hfradio.org/ace-hf/ace-hf-reciprocal.html I've also posted another recent CQ Magazine Propagation column, where I explored basic HF propagation concepts (De-mystifying HF signal propagation). This is interesting from the listener's perspective. You can find it here: http://hfradio.org/ace-hf/ace-hf-demystified.html I'm working on posting additional texts where I take various HF propagation topics, and use modern software to model the concepts. I hope that this is helpful to those of you wishing to dig deeper into space weather and radio signal propagation (especially on HF). 73 es gud DX Tomas Hood / NW7US / Heliophile : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : 122.93W 47.67N Brinnon, WA USA CN87 - QRP and CW/SSB/DIGI : : 10x56526 : FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57 : Lighthouse Scty #144 : : NAm QRP CW Club 1774 : QRP Amateur Radio Club Int'l 12781 : : Contributing editor on Wikipedia - Amateur Radio/Space WX : : The journey of life http://ic-discipleship-ministries.org : ---[Start Commercial]- Preorder your WRTH 2007: http://www.hard-core-dx.com/redirect2.php?id=wrth2007 ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://www.gnu.org/licenses/dsl.html
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Alert - 1634 UTC 23 AUG 2005
Aurora chasers, radio DXers, take note: Even during this time of lower solar activity, with the cycle so close to its end (expected to be during 2007), there are still moments of flare-ups significant enough to cause some space weather and geomagnetic activity. A greater than 10MeV proton event is currently in progress, following an M5.6 X-ray flare from NOAA active region 0798 which began at 1646 UTC and peaked at 1727 UTC yesterday, August 22, 2005. A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in association with the proton flare. (A halo CME is one that is directed toward Earth). This proton event augments an on-going proton event that was triggered yesterday evening just after 1800 UTC. This first proton event is probably related to the Long Duration Event M5.6 flare of yesterday evening and the accompanying halo CME. On August 23 and 24, due to the arrival of the coronal mass ejections from the flares noted above, aurora is possible in High Latitudes, down through the lower Canadian regions. Some Aurora might be visible in Maine and other areas of similar latitude. Some degradation on HF and MW is occurring and expected to continue. Especially on propagation paths that traverse over the poles. More updates, when warranted. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : -- 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is out. Order yours from http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Augen auf
http://www.rocknord.de http://www.aktivefrauenfraktion.tk http://www.kopfmord.de http://www.das-gibts-doch-nicht.de http://www.zukunft-europa.info/index.html http://www.geocities.com/scorpios2602/links.html http://www.g-d-f.de http://www.bewaeltigen.de http://www.wk-institut.de http://www.jungefreiheit.de http://www.auslaendergewalt.ch http://www.pro-koeln-online.de http://www.leverkusener-aufbruch.com http://www.buergerbewegungen.de/index.html http://www.un-nachrichten.de http://www.radio-freiheit.com ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Heads up - poor propagation ahead...
NW7US Propagation Bulletin 07 February 2005 Propagation today (07-II-2005) has turned poor on many HF circuits, due to a fast solar wind originating in a large coronal hole. This coronal hole is located in the northern hemisphere of the visible solar disk, and is in position to continue influencing Space Weather around the Earth through the 9th. Minor aurora at high latitudes, with possible short bursts at the higher range of the mid-latitudes, is possible through the 9th. The current IMF orientation is not favorable for strong aurora, and the dynamic pressure of the solar wind is not high. Even though the solar wind speed is over 600 km/s at the moment due to the high-speed wind from this coronal hole, there is only minor aurora (Au level is 8). This has elevated the Kp index to a current level of 6 (as of this bulletin, 0700 UTC 08-II-2005). For the later part of 07 February, the Kp has been at or above 4. This is causing a moderate depression of the critical frequencies that can be propagated via the ionosphere for a given radio signal path. So, if you normally communicate on 5 MHz, the critical frequency could be lowered to as low as 3 MHz. Signal levels will be weaker, due to the weakening of the ionosphere in general. I am forecasting the next 24 hours to continue being rough for short-skip propagation (i.e., state-wide). This is due to the weakening and lowering of the critical frequencies useful for short-skip propagation. Intra-state HF comms will be workable, though not optimal. I am further forecasting the next 48 hours to be variable in terms of reliable communications for state-wide and regional paths. There are returning sunspot groups that may bring a series of moderate flares. Any moderate to strong flare could trigger coronal mass ejections, causing geomagnetic storms such as we saw several weeks ago. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Aurora and more...
NW7US Propagation Bulletin Update 21 January 2005 - 1945 UTC As I mentioned early on (see my recent bulletins), the X7 flare unleashed a coronal mass ejection. I had reported that it was probable that the CME was directed Earthward. It was. It has hit, today, and we are now seeing a planetary K index (Kp) of 8, with a reading from Boulder at 7. At the time of this bulletin, the Bz is strongly positive, decreasing the full impact on geomagnetic activity. However, we're watching the IMF closely, becuase if it does turn southward, what is already a major/severe geomagnetic storm will increase even more in strength. Of course, the dynamic pressure of this passage is very high, and the speed is over 950 km/s. At the same time, the proton storm is finally ending. Aurora is very possible for North America this evening. Certainly, Aurora is active over Asia/Europe. With a Kp of 8, it is possible that radio propagation via Aurora is in the cards for today/tonight. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] X7.1 Flare Peak 0659 / Proton Storm
NW7US Propagation Bulletin 20 January 2005 - 1430 UTC At the time of this bulletin, active sunspot region 10720 (720) continues its flaring activity. Since the X3.8 flare of 17-I-2005 that peaked at 0954 UTC, we've seen three M-class flares (peaks at 1134 and 1549 UTC, 18-I-2005 and 1539 UTC, 19-I-2005), and two X-class flares (peaks at 0824 UTC, 19-I-2005, and 0659 UTC, 20-I-2005). The most recent X-class, the X7.1 level flare, has created a very strong proton storm. This proton storm has caused the saturation of sensors aboard various satellites which are used to monitor the solar wind speed, causing them to become unreliable. Region 720 is near the edge of the solar disk, about to rotate off the visual side. The expolsion of coronal material will not be directed toward Earth in any significant way. However, we are expecting the arrival soon of the coronal mass ejection from the X1.3 flare from yesterday. This will be a glancing blow, but since it is riding a solar wind that is already somewhat elevated from the currently geo-effective coronal hole, we expect perhaps up to minor storm level geomagnetic activity. With the inability to monitor the solar wind, it will not be clear when and if the CME from the X1.3 flare hits. HF propagation today will be fair to good on low- and mid-latitude paths, until sometime after the CME hits. HF propagation via the polar routes will be poor, if propagation is even possible under this strong to severe proton storm. VHF propagation via AU will not be exciting, since we don't expect a strong geomagnetic storm at this time. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Some Updates on Space Weather Events
NW7US Propagation Bulletin Update 20 January 2005 - 1645 UTC This latest X-class flare, the THIRD LARGEST of this solar cycle (Cycle 23), was incredible. It unleashed an extreme (and very sudden) proton event, that has nearly caused a complete white-out of various space weather satellite instruments. Even so, it has been confirmed that a full-halo coronal mass ejection was associated with this large and impressive X7 proton flare. Because of the incomplete data (due to the proton bombardment), it appears that this CME may be fairly well directed Earthward. But, this could be wrong. Many teams are working on this one. If the CME is directed mostly Earthward, the impact could be quite strong. If the orientation at that time of the interplanetary magnetic field is soutward, (a negative Bz), we could see the most significant geomagnetic storminess of this entire period of activity associated with active solar region 720. The impact of such a CME would be within one to two day. Do remember that we are also under the influence of a coronal hole. And, we now believe that the CME expected sometime today has likely arrived just before this big X7 flare occurred. The solar wind speed had a jump of over 200 km/s. The Bz, however, remained positive as the wind reached over 900 km/s by 0700 UTC. That's when the sensors became saturated and we lost the ability to monitor the wind's details. I'll send out another update later when more details are confirmed. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Bulletin: Aurora and Flares 18-I-2005 1445Z
Active solar region 10720 (or, just 720) has spawned a great number of flares. So far, three of these unleashed coronal mass ejections directed toward Earth, and triggered proton events. The latest flare to do this was an X3.8 flare, which caused an extreme proton storm that is still active. The fast moving coronal mass ejection (initially measuring at a speed of over 1500 km/s, coming directly toward Earth) associated with this flare should arrive by the end of 17 January or during the first part of 18 January (UTC time). This means, for North America, the initial shockwave should arrive this evening. This will elevate the geomagnetic activity level. The Kp has been ranging between 3 and 7 already due to the first two CME arrivals. When this third CME hits it will cause severe geomagnetic storm levels of activity (Kp = 7). Of course, this will trigger very energetic aurora, which should be viewable into the low-latitude regions. Radio Aurora-mode propagation is very probable starting this evening. MW propagation at my location is degraded, especially from N/S circuits. I am barely hearing Canadian stations that I normally DX without a problem. HF propagation will be very limited when the shock wave hits. More as new information become available. -- 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Correction: Dates
NW7US update / correction The dates in my last bulletin were stated as 17 and 18 January 2005. Please adjust those to 18 and 18 January. A slip of the fingers. Thanks. -- 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Bulletin (with corrected dates) 18-I-2005 1520Z
The following is a corrected version of NW7US Propagation Bulletin 18 January 2005 - 1520Z Active solar region 10720 (or, just 720) has spawned a great number of flares. So far, three of these unleashed coronal mass ejections directed toward Earth, and triggered proton events. The latest flare to do this was an X3.8 flare, which caused an extreme proton storm that is still active. The fast moving coronal mass ejection (initially measuring at a speed of over 1500 km/s, coming directly toward Earth) associated with this flare should arrive by the end of 18 January or during the first part of 19 January (UTC time). This means, for North America, the initial shockwave should arrive this evening. Currently, the sensor equipment aboard certain key observation satellites is saturated under the bombardment of protons due to the currently on-going extreme proton storm, which was triggered by the X3.8 flare. This makes it difficult to know what the current solar wind data is, or when the actual shock wave might arrive of this fast-moving CME. This will elevate the geomagnetic activity level. The Kp has been ranging between 3 and 7 already due to the first two CME arrivals. When this third CME hits it will cause severe geomagnetic storm levels of activity (Kp = 7). Of course, this will trigger very energetic aurora, which should be viewable into the low-latitude regions. Radio Aurora-mode propagation is very probable starting this evening. MW propagation at my location is degraded, especially from N/S circuits. I am barely hearing Canadian stations that I normally DX without a problem. HF propagation will be very limited when the shock wave hits. More as new information become available. -- 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Arrival of the expected CME 19-I-2005 0030Z
NW7US Propagation Bulletin / Update 19 January 2005 - 0030Z There is speculation that the coronal mass ejection unleashed by the X3.8 level flare from active region 720 may have arrived. It is very difficult to determine exactly when, if indeed it has, arrived. The reason for this lies in the extreme to very strong proton storm that has caused a saturation / contamination of the instruments that we measure the solar wind data with. Without reliable measurements, we are not yet sure of the details needed to pinpoint the arrival of the CME. However, the solar wind speed readings are beginning to become reliable, and we have some spotty information that the wind speed was over 900 km/s. At the same time, the interplanetary magnetic field appears to be oriented northward. Even so, with a wind pressure this strong compressing the magnetosphere, the geomagnetic field will increase in its activity, to severe storm levels. Aurora is a pretty sure bet. If/when the IMF turns southward for more than a few hours, the storm will increase significantly (Kp = 8). We are still under a strong proton storm with a polar cap absorption event. Bottom line: Fire up your VHF for AU mode propagation. Look for visual aurora even in lower latitudes. Tonight in North America, the Northern Lights will play, and they may well be quite a show. At the same time, as the storm picks up, the maximum usable frequencies on HF will become greatly depressed, making communications difficult on many signal paths. Medium Wave propagation will continue to have antinuation, especially over high latitude paths. -- 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] MAJOR FLARE/GEO STORM : NW7US Propagation Bulletin Update 0930 UTC 17-I-2005
NW7US Propagation Bulletin Update 0930 UTC, 17 January 2005 It is clear now after analysis that the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X2.6-class X-ray flare of 2302 UTC 15 January 2005 has arrived. The first detection was at 0640 UTC as an energetic ion enhancement. The second was a moderate shock reported at 0716 UTC by ACE. This is the second CME expected between 16 and 18 January 2005. The first CME, associated with the long-duration M8.6-class flare of 15 January 2005 (0639 UTC), appears to have arrived around 0930 UTC 16 January 2005, when we saw the planetary K index (Kp) reach 5, and the solar wind speed increase with a change in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The second CME that has now arrived is pushing the solar wind speed to above 600 kilometers per second. The IMF has been become southward-oriented for only short periods of time. However, I expect the IMF to move more steadily southward as this CME plasma cloud passes, increasing the geomagnetic disturbance already detected. As stated earlier, forecasters are expecting major to severe geomagnetic storminess in the next 12 hours, extending for the next 24 to 48 hours. This will depress the maximum usable frequencies on HF ionospheric radio paths. At the same time, these conditions are and will continue to spawn Aurora. Radio Aurora has been reported. As I write this (0930 UTC), it is also clear that we are in the middle of another long-duration X-class flare. The rise-time of this flare event has been over one-hour in length, and the peak has not yet been reached. This is an event to keep our eyes on, as any CME associated with this will likely cause at least a glancing blow in about three days. During the course of this flare, radio blackout is causing degradation of HF communications on the day-lit side of the Earth. The flare was declared as an active event at 0659 UTC (17 January 2005) at a level of C1.1. The current GEOS 12 measurement at 0927 UTC is at X1.4 (GEOS 10 is recording X1.5), and still climbing. This is a VERY long rise-time. Most flares begin and end within minutes to at most a half-hour. Updates when possible and if warranted will be issued. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : -- 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] X4.1 FLARE PEAK 0952 UTC 17-I-2005
Flare update - 0952 UTC The entire HF spectrum is shut-down at the time of this e-mail, on the sunlit side of the Earth. Recovery time is 1 hour, 37 minutes (approx. 1130 UTC). The flare from region 720 has maxed out at X4.1 (GEOS) (IPS reports X3.8). The rise time was nearly two hours in length. It is too early for me to tell if there is a signature radio sweep, though there might be a hint of a precursor. I will issue an update if a CME has been detected. In the meantime, the solar wind speed remains above 600 km/s, and it is anticipated that the Kp index will rise. It is possible that we will yet see the major to severe geomagnetic storm. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Geo-storm commencing 1145 UTC
NW7US Propagation Update 17 January 2005 - 1145 UTC The solar wind speed is now (1145 UTC) exceeding 776 km/s with a moderately southward orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz = -6.6 nT). This rise in wind speed is rather sudden, after a long period of it hovering around 600 km/s. The Aurora activity energy level is increasing, measuring 1000 nT. The GEOS Hp indicates a strong compression of the Magnetosphere. This will induce strong ring currents and cause the geomagnetic field to become strongly active. Forecast for next 24 hours: Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be strong. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level are expected. Solar radiation storms reaching the S2 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level are expected. (See http://www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ for the scales used here). 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] [Propagation] NW7US Alert: Precursor to Geomagnetic Storm detected
Energetic Ion Enhancement Event ( see http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004/2003JA010044.shtml ) At 0640 UTC 17-I-2005, ACE detected a proton flux exceeding 1.0e+05 p/cm2 - which simply indicates the probable arrival of the plasma cloud expected from the flare events reported earlier. It is highly expected that geomagnetic storm activity will begin over the next 24 hours. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : -- 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ___ Propagation mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] [SWL] NW7US Alert: Precursor to Geomagnetic Storm detected (0640
Energetic Ion Enhancement Event ( see http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004/2003JA010044.shtml ) At 0640 UTC 17-I-2005, ACE detected a proton flux exceeding 1.0e+05 p/cm2 - which simply indicates the probable arrival of the plasma cloud expected from the flare events reported earlier. It is highly expected that geomagnetic storm activity will begin over the next 24 hours. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : -- 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ___ List Administrator: Duane Fischer, W8DBF (WPE8CXO) **For Assistance: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ** HCI Web Site For SWL Information - http://www.w9wze.org/SWL http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/swl Help: http://mailman.qth.net/faq.htm ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Bulletin 2030 UTC 17-I-2005
NW7US Propagation Update 17 January 2005 - 2030 UTC The latest long-duration flare from active solar region 720 (the flare measured X3.8 and X4.1, officially recorded as X3.8 at 0659 UTC 17-I-2005), which took 2 hours to reach maximum, and had a long decay as well, unleashed such an intense amount of plasma, proton, and energy burst that many sensing equipment (satellites like ACE) have become unreliable and unusable. The solar wind speed exceeded 800 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field orientation was observed pointing southward, until the sensors 'shut down' under the influence of the proton bombardment. So, we don't really know how high the wind speed has been since, nor do we really know how the IMF is oriented. What we know is that we are under a full onslaught of a proton storm. We are under the influence of a very strong solar wind. Massive amounts of plasma and a solar particle cloud is passing as the result of the coronal mass ejection from the X2-class flare of a few days ago. The planetary K index (Kp) has reached the level of 7 - a real geomagnetic storm. The CME-triggered storm will continue for at least the next 12 to 24 hours. But, with the arrival of what looks like a medium-sized coronal hole, as well as the arrival of a new coronal mass ejection on 18 January 2005, we are expecting the geomagnetic storm to increase to severe storm levels on the 18th. The X3.8 flare unleashed a very fast coronal mass ejection. This one is faster than the last two by over 300 km/s. It was measured at 1567 km/s, and was directed toward Earth. This means that it will arrive here sometime on 18 January 2005. This one is big. The long-duration of this event indicates a possibly very large cloud ejected over a longer period than the last two ejections. Again, that translates to a severe geomagnetic storm. Since the current strong (S3) radiation storm is expected to continue for several more days, we cannot be sure if the sensors will give us indication of when the shock wave arrives. Reports will therefore be spotty. Active region 720 has been amazingly eventful. Five large solar flares produced moderate (R2) to strong (R3) radio blackouts since 15 January. HF radio communications on the sunlit hemisphere of Earth experienced significant signal degradation during these solar flares, and the area around eastern Africa was totally shut down. Active Region 720 is a large and complex sunspot cluster. Further major eruptions are possible from this region before it rotates around the visible solar disk on 22 January. Continued radio blackouts, geomagnetic storms, and solar radiation storms will impact MW, HF, VHF communications. Aurora is a sure bet. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Radio AU reported
I am receiving reports on Radio AU detected in North America. The solar wind speed is elevated, and the interplantary magnetic field (IMF) is oriented southward (negative Bz). I am anticipating the arrival of two coronal mass ejections, and perhaps we have already seen the passage of the leading edge of the first one. We are also in the midst of a proton storm. Many forecasters are predicting very strong geomagnetic storminess starting tonight, and lasting through the 17th and into the 18th. This will most certainly trigger AU mode propagation. Please send reports to me, if possible, as I would like to track this for reporting later. For those of you interested, I have two pages that would be helpful for watching the actual space weather and geomagnetic activity levels, as well as the Aurora active at a given time. These are: http://hfradio.org/visual_propagation.html http://hfradio.org/aurora.html Thanks, and good luck! 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Alert: Precursor to Geomagnetic Storm detected (0640 UTC 17-I-2005)
Energetic Ion Enhancement Event ( see http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004/2003JA010044.shtml ) At 0640 UTC 17-I-2005, ACE detected a proton flux exceeding 1.0e+05 p/cm2 - which simply indicates the probable arrival of the plasma cloud expected from the flare events reported earlier. It is highly expected that geomagnetic storm activity will begin over the next 24 hours. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : -- 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Solar Wind Speed Shock detected - Geo-Storm in 12 hours : Update 0716 UTC 17-I-2005
In addition to the Energetic Ion Enhancement Event of 0640 UTC 17-I-2005 (see my last update), a moderate shock has been detected in the solar wind speed at 0716 UTC, 17-I-2005. The plasma density change was 3.4 part/cc, with an increase in speed of 78 km/s, and a temperature increase of 171,851.9 degrees K. The Bz went from -0.3 to -1.2 at the same moment. This is a precursor to the beginning of geomagnetic storminess within 12 hours. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Coronal Mass Ejection detected: Major Geomagnetic Storm Predicted
NW7US Propagation Update (15 January 2005 0840 UTC) During the series of flares from solar sunspot region 0720, at 0614 UTC 15 January 2005, a strong solar flare and radio sweep event was observed. This indicates a full-halo coronal mass ejection (one that is headed directly toward Earth). The start time of this Type II burst was 0554 UTC 15 January 2005. The shock speed is estimated at 1300 km/s - this is a MAJOR SHOCK. An extremely strong Type IV event followed the Type II event. The sweep looks optically correlated with the flare from region 0720. (To see the sweep, browse to http://prop.hfradio.org/ips_type2event-20050115.gif (IPS)) The way this is shaped (PARALLEL RIBBON), a proton event is indicated that may begin in coming hours. Energetic solar proton events adversely impact tran-polar HF propagation circuits. This level of event may well span into middle latitudes. It is now expected that the start of January 16 will see strong geomagnetic storminess, increasing to MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC storminess, then declining late on January 17 to active levels. This could well be a major Aurora event, as well. *STRONGLY DEGRADED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED* from 16 January through 17 January 2005. Additional details will be reported when available. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Update Bulletin 16-I-2005 0430 UTC
NW7US Propagation Update Bulletin 16-I-2005 0430 UTC At the time of this bulletin, we've just witnessed another long-duration flare. This is the strongest of the flares so far unleashed by active sunspot region 720 (NOAA 10720). This flare was a major X2.6-class event that peaked at 2302 UTC 15-I-2005. A Type II radio burst was detected, and a proton event is currently underway, as well. A very fast coronal mass ejection was associated with this X2.6 flare. It looks like the majority of the plasma mass will just miss the Earth, yet we expect at least a glancing blow. We expect this to occur sometime on 17 or 18 January 2005, riding on the heels of the CME from the M-class long-duration flare from earlier (refer to my last bulletin). This will cause the geomagnetic storm to be prolonged. The storm will begin at any time in the next 24 hours, and last well past 17 January 2005. We expect minor storm levels on 16 January, severe storm levels on 17 and 18 January. The solar activity has significantly risen as a result of the active solar regions. The 10.7-cm Flux has reach 145, and is expected to increase to perhaps 150 by 17 and 18 January 2005. This has opened up paths on frequencies as high as 10 meters. This translates to disrupted HF conditions caused by shortwave fadeouts for the next three days due to active solar region 720 (and possibly from flares from 718). When the CME clouds arrive and impact our environment we expect the Maximum Usable Frequencies on most signal paths to become very depressed in coming days. HF communication may become very difficult if this active solar region continues to flare, while at the same time we have the storm conditions in the geomagnetic field around the Earth. Look for active visual Aurora starting tonight and through the next few days (even in mid- to low-latitude regions). Energetic pulses will occur. Aurora-E / Aurora-mode propagation is likely. Active region 720 unleashed a total of 20 flares during 15 January 2005. These are: Event Begin/Max/End Level Reg# --- 2690 + 0022 0043 0102 X1.2 0720 2740 + 0234 0239 0244 C2.9 0720 2750 + 0316 0340 0357 C4.2 0720 2760 + 0409 0416 0422 M1.3 0720 2770 + 0426 0431 0436 M8.4 0720 2780 + 0554 0638 0717 M8.6 0720 2820 + 1141 1148 1150 M1.2 0720 2830 + 1227 1231 1234 C7.4 0720 2890 + 1352 1357 1359 C5.5 0720 2900 + 1408 1423 1439 M3.2 0718 2940 + 1650 1657 1702 C8.0 0720 3000 + 1703 1707 1709 C7.2 0720 2960 + 1749 1816 1824 C4.2 0720 3010 1757 1802 1805 C2.9 0720 2970 1812 1815 1818 C4.4 ? 3020 + 1842 1853 1901 C8.8 0720 3040 + 1944 1949 1954 C3.5 0720 3050 + 2008 2022 2027 C5.4 0720 3080 + 2201 2208 2216 M1.0 0720 3090 + 2225 2302 2331 X2.6 0720 Updates will be posted if and when warrented. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Aurora watch - and Flare Activity Bulletin 15 Jan 2005
On January 14, 2005, there was a small solar flare that was located on the solar central meridian. The associated plasma that was ejected, directed squarely toward Earth, will arrive simultaneously with an already elevated solar wind stream. It is expected that the geomagnetic activity will become highly active, to perhaps major storm levels. This will trigger Aurora at least in the high latitudes, but possibly along the middle latitudes, starting during the night of January 15 through January 16. Updates if necessary will follow. I've posted a list of the flares of 14 January through the start of 15 January, 2005 (up to the writing of this message, which is 0510 UTC 15 January 2005) at http://hfradio.org/forums/viewtopic.php?p=521#521 So far, records show that sunspot group 0720 has spawned 36 X-ray Flares. An additional flare from sunspot group 0719 occurred, making the number of flares since the start of January 14 a total of 37! Thirty-six flares already from this giant sunspot group! Six of them were M-class flares. One, peaking at 0043 UTC, 15 January 2005, was a level X1.2 in size! The latest was an M5.9. There are more on the way. This of course is causing Radio Blackouts on the sunlit side of Earth. It will generate geomagnetic storms due to the likely coronal mass ejections heading our way, which in turn will lower the Maximum Usable Frequencies over most paths by as much as 30 percent. We're in for interesting times. The Flux is rising, and will spawn propagation on higher bands. Visual Aurora is very likely, as well, due to coronal plasma ejections and an enhanced solar wind stream. Expect RADIO AURORA MODE PROPAGATION starting late 15 January 2005, onward. Another memorable moment in Cycle 23. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Re: [Propagation] Strong to Severe Geomagnetic Storming Occurring
On Fri, 7 Jan 2005 20:26:34 -0500, Thomas Giella KN4LF [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: As hard as it may seem to believe no other global propagation forecasting entity whether it be governmental, educational or private predicted this geomagnetic storm. Actually, the storm was predicted by several forecasting agencies. The magnitude of any forecast is always fuzzy, of course. For instance, the following gave indication that a storm was possible: :Product: 0106RSGA.txt :Issued: 2005 Jan 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2005 snip IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Weak transient flow from CME activity on 04 and 05 January may create occasional active periods on 07 and 08 January. Predominantly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 09 January. In addition, my Last-Minute Forecast shows degradation/storming for today, as well. In my US Army MARS Net Planning Forecast for my region, I indicated the degradation of HF for regional communications. Cory of SpaceW also had watchful comments, and has also released an Aurora watch for Mid-latitudes, now confirmed by Amateur Radio VHF ops. The origin of this storm is fuzzy, too - no major shock was detected as would be typical of a direct CME passage. However, forecasts suspected a CME passage from recent events. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAA0WA) : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, Popular Communications : : Creator; live propagation center http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Associate Member of Propagation Studies Committee of RSGB : : US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) SMD AAA0WA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA CN87 CW/SSB/DIGI : : Website/software/database design http://newwebmakers.com/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2005 is coming out. Preorder yours and support open communications for DXers: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823077942/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list Hard-Core-DX@hard-core-dx.com http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Update: 20-XII-2003
Hello, Radio Enthusiast! Currently, there is an elongated coronal hole in geoeffictive position on the solar disk. This coronoal hole is quite a bit smaller than the coronal hole of last week. The solar wind speed is currently above 460 km per second, but the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) currently has a northerly orientation (the Bz is positive). There have been brief moments with the Bz going negative (the IMF orientation goes south), so we are seeing the geomagnetic field becoming more active. Currently the planetary K index (Kp) is 3, down from 4. I am expecting this fluctuation to continue until Monday, with swings between active to minor storm levels. This ultimately translates to slightly degraded ionospheric conditions, with the maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) just a bit depressed from normal. The highest HF bands suffer under these conditions, and mid-HF openings over high-latitude and polar paths become weaker, and of shorter duration. Again, by Monday, we should start to see conditions settling down and HF propagation becoming excellent. The 10.7-cm flux is above 120, so we'll be seeing nice higher-band HF propagation through the next week. On VHF, I don't expect strong enough geomagnetic activity to trigger any Auroral-mode propagation. There might be a few periods of sporadic-E (Es) activity, however (we often see a return of Es during December and January). The current 10.7-cm flux is above 120, so I also do not expect any significant F-layer propagation opening on VHF. Happy Dxing! 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, and Popular Communications : : Quarterly Propagation Columnist for Monitoring Times Magazine : : Creator of live propagation center - http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Member, US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) AAR0JA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA - CN87 - CW/SSB/DIGI : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer -- AAM0EWA : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, AR Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Update: 18-XII-2003
123456789 123456789 123456789 123456789 123456789 123456789 12345 Hello, Radio Enthusiast! The very large coronal hole that has kept the geomagnetic field at active to minor storm levels is no longer in view. This is giving us a nice period of quiet geomagnetic activity, with the result being that we are seeing propagation that is more normal over most of the paths around the world. A smaller coronal hole is currently near the central solar meridian and is expected to lead to minor geomagnetic storm conditions from Sunday, 21-XII-2003 onwards. Between now and then, it is expected that the 10.7-cm flux will climb a bit, perhaps as high as 130, while the planetary A index (Ap) should remain at or below 10. From 21-XII-2003 onward, the flux will gradually fall to about 100, with some elevation of the Ap index as the geomagnetic field becomes active again due to that coronal hole. After 31-XII-2003, we.ll see conditions become a bit rougher, again. However, this is due to the coronal hole that we.re seeing, not because of any major flare. Between today and the first of the New Year, there is only a slim chance of any moderate flare, while there will be a good number of minor small flares (B- and C-class flares). There is also a small chance for a proton event from mid to late December. This might make over-the-pole propagation a bit tough. At the time of writing this bulletin, the solar wind speed is at about 400 km per second, which is a normal speed, with only a slight southerly orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. As of 17-XII-2003, the sunspot count is 92, and the 10.7-cm flux is 118. The Ap is 10, and the Kp (planetary K index) is 3. This translates to some very good conditions for the High Frequencies (HF). Expected MUFs are normal, rather than depressed as we.ve seen for the last couple of weeks. The season is great for worldwide DX on HF, and this period between now and the New Year will offer great conditions for most of the time. The highest frequencies will have some long-range F-layer openings (since the flux will be above 100), but they will be short. Lower frequencies will propagate much better over most paths. Come by and check out the online Propagation and Radio (SWL and Amateur) discussion forum, where a group of us are discussing the science and current events of space weather and propagation: http://hfradio.org/forums/ In addition, you can always get the latest live space weather and propagation information at http://prop.hfradio.org -- or with a WAP phone, at http://wap.hfradio.org/ Happy Dxing! 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, and Popular Communications : : Quarterly Propagation Columnist for Monitoring Times Magazine : : Creator of live propagation center - http://prop.hfradio.org/ : : Member, US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) AAR0JA : : 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA - CN87 - CW/SSB/DIGI : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer -- AAM0EWA : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, AR Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Updated Forecast for CQ WW CW weekend
Here is my updated predictions for the CQ WW CW contest weekend (29-XI-2003 UTC and 30-XI-2003 UTC): The solar activity that took us by surprise during the end of October and beginning of November 2003 has me revising my outlook for the CQ WW CW contest period of November 29 and 30. I am now expecting conditions to be slightly degraded compared to the forecast conditions published in the CQ Magazine. ( See my latest Last Minute Forecast chart at http://prop.hfradio.org/ ) Using the 27-day solar cycle as a guide, we are looking at Above Normal on day one, to High Normal conditions on day two of the contest weekend. Low- and mid-latitude paths will be good, while high-latitude and polar paths will be fair. The predictions right now call for the planetary A index (Ap) to be 10 on 28-XI-2003 and 29-XI-2003, and 15 on 29-XI-2003. (Some predictions called for the Ap to remain at 15 for both contest days, making day one only High-normal conditions). The 10.7-cm Flux is predicted to be at least 165 to 180 on 28-XI-2003 and 29-XI-2003. On 30-XI-2003, the flux is expected to fall to about 160. A maximum planetary K index (Kp) of 3 is expected for both days. Polar geomagnetic forecasts are calling for unsettled conditions for trans-polar and high-latitude propagation paths. This will make over-the-pole contacts more challenging. Will solar flares play havouc on the bands during the daylight hours during the contest? The sunspot regions, 507 and 508, pose the most risk for flare activity. Both have beta-gamma magnetic configurations. Old sunspot region 498 is expected to return from around the sun on day one, but will still be on the very edge. It is predicted to have a beta configuration, so 498's flare risk is low. A note about magnetic configurations of sunspot groups: Sunspots classed as beta groups are simple bipolar regions. Beta-gamma sunspot groups are more complex and consist of an irregular mixture of magnetic polarities. The delta magnetic configuration only occurs when two closely-spaced, opposite polarity umbrae appear within a single penumbra. This characteristic implies that magnetic field gradients are high and that respectable levels of magnetic shear may exist around the two opposite polarity umbral spots. Sunspot regions that possess the delta configuration are the most potentially volatile and flare-prone active regions. Some of the most powerful solar flares in recorded history (including the rare white-light flares) have issued forth from complex sunspot regions containing magnetic delta configurations. The most complex magnetic configurations of sunspot groups is known as a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. ( More information: http://sidc.oma.be/edu/classification.html ) I expect that there will be minor flare activity from these regions over the contest weekend. This will impact the highest bands (10 to 15 meters). Therefore, I expect that the higher bands will be poor to good, depending on the path: Trans-equitorial paths (N/S) will be the best, while polar paths will be the worst. The middle HF bands will be good over most paths. The low HF bands and the MW band will fair nicely, since the backgound X-ray levels are expected to be in the B-class range, and very little geomagnetic activity is expected. Those operating in low-latitudes will have the best propagation into most areas of the world. All stations will have a slight challenge for any over-the-pole paths. Mid-latitude stations should otherwise have good conditions, while high-latitude stations will have fewer higher frequency openings. I'll be watching things closely, and will update my predictions if warrented. You can find the latest version at http://prop.hfradio.org/ Happy DXing! 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Update: 20-XI-2003
A severe geomagnetic storm is in progress at this time. As I write this bulletin, the planetary K index (Kp) is at 7. The Aurora Index is at 10 (maximum). The Bz (horizontal component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field) is strongly negative (oriented southward), at -55.1 nanoTeslas. This stormy geomagnetic activity is causing strong ionospheric recombination, decreasing the maximum usable frequencies on all radio link paths. HF propagation at all latitudes is poor. This geomagnetic storm is a result of the arrival and passage of a coronal hole mass ejection from 18-XI-2003. The solar wind speed increased from 430 km per second to 750 km per second, with a very strongly negative horizontal IMF component. Whenever the Bz is negative (whenever the horizontal IMF component is oriented southward), the IMF combines with the magnetosphere in such a way as to create geomagnetic disturbances and ionospheric storms. Aurora is also a typical result of such interaction. This geomagnetic storm is expected to continue through the end of 20-XI-2003. Additional CME arrivals may continue to keep the geomagnetic activity high. At 0747Z, 20-XI-2003, a flare peaked at M9.6, further causing degradation of the HF propagation, on the sunlit area of the Earth. Continued C, M, and possible X flares are possible today and for the next week. The major sunspot groups from the end of October and the beginning of November have and are returning into view, increasing solar activity. Today's HF propagation outlook is poor. While the 10.7-cm flux is climbing, the continued geomagnetic storm will significantly degrade higher frequency propagation. The moderate to major flare activity expected will also degrade mid-HF frequencies. Nighttime propagation on low to mid HF frequencies will also suffer, as the E-layer will be significantly recombined, decreasing its MUF. VHF propagation via Aurora, Aurora-E, and Trans-equitorial propagation (TEP) will be fair to good. I welcome reports, if any, of your success on VHF during this period. More information as events warrent will be posted in follow-up bulletins. Live information is on-going at http://prop.hfradio.org/ and a discussion is at http://hfradio.org/forums/ 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Aurora Alert and Geomagnetic Storm Alert - 20-XI-2003
A severe geomagnetic storm (G4) is in progress due to the arrival of coronal hole mass ejections related to the returning sunspot group 484, now numbered 501. Some reporting stations show a K index of 9. The current planetary K index (Kp) is 8 and the Aurora index is 10. This is expected to possibly increase to a Kp of 9, a geomagnetic storm level G5, through the day. HF conditions are poor. MW conditions are poor. Visual Aurora is possible today at low-latitudes. Aurora-mode propagation (Au and Au-Es) is possible and is already reported. Visual Aurora is occurring now in night regions, and is possible to occur tonight during darkness in the Western Hemisphere (e.g., North America). More information as events warrent will be posted in follow-up bulletins. Live information is on-going at http://prop.hfradio.org/ and a discussion is at http://hfradio.org/forums/ 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Update: 11-XI-2003
The large coronal hole that was predicted to move into geoeffective position by 11-XI-2003 has indeed, affecting the solar wind. The solar wind has been elevated since 10-XI-2003, with a consistantly southward orientation (Bz is negative) in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The solar wind stream is expected to continue at this higher speed for the next few days, with a high possibility that the IMF will remain orientated southward. This will cause the geomagnetic field to remain at least active, but most likely at minor to major storm levels (at least a G2-level geomagnetic storm, Kp levels between 4 and 7). The Ap is expected to continue to rise, up to a possible 70, during the next few days. But, the 10.7-cm flux is also rising a bit, with 95, 98, and 100 expected from today, 11-XI-2003, through 13-XI-2003. There have been a series of B-class flares from the new sunspots (498, 499, 500). This has caused very minor degradation of the middle HF bands in geographical areas directly facing the sun. Type-II radio emissions have been recorded, as well, indicating minor coronal hole mass ejections (CME), further enhancing the solar wind stream. As I write this, the first M-class flare peaked at 1351Z 11-XI-2003, at about M1. It is unclear to me yet where this flare came from. It might have been from region 500, or, highly possible, from the now-returning sunspot region 484 (we saw activity from this one several weeks ago). The possible return of large active regions that contributed to the high activity of the last 3 weeks is expected between 11-XI-2003 and 16-XI-2003, starting a new surge of flaring activity for several weeks. In the meantime, the very large coronal hole should be the main source of Earth disturbances. Overall conditions, then, on HF will be poor to fair. The high geomagnetic activity for a period of many days will degrade or even shut down polar and high-latitude paths, while leaving mid- and low-latitude propagation paths only marginal. There will be exceptions to this across paths of sunlight, due to the higher flux levels. VHF conditions could be enhanced due to the active aurora conditions and elevated geomagnetic activity. More at http://prop.hfradio.org/ 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Update: 9-XI-2003
Geomagnetic activity is increasing, now, due to the influence of fast wind coming from the coronal hole located in the central meridian of the Sun. The rest of today's geomagnetic activity will be unsettled to active (up to a Kp of 5). This will degrade the higher HF bands for the next two days. By 11-XI-2003, a large coronal hole which is rotating into geoeffective position will inhance the solar wind further, causing active to minor geomagnetic storm conditions. Three new sunpots have appeared on the Sun (Catania numbers 86, 87, and 89). These are now growing and have what is known as a beta magnetic configuration. The may become a source of flares, at least C-class at this time, causing some minor radio degradation on the lower HF bands on the sunlit side of the earth. The 10.7-cm flux is now expected to rise, again, with these new sunspots. Expected flux levels are 93, 95, and 98 for today through Tuesday. But, with the increased geomagnetic activity, the higher bands will still suffer. More info at http://prop.hfradio.org 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Update for CQ WW CW Contest Weekend
The solar activity that took us by surprise during the end of October and beginning of November 2003 has me revising my outlook for the CQ WW CW contest period of November 29 and 30. I am now expecting conditions to be a bit rougher than I forecast in my column. Using the 27-day solar cycle as a guide, we are looking at Low to High Normal conditions. Low- and mid-latitude paths will be good, while high-latitude and polar paths will be poor to fair. There is a slight to moderate chance that the major sunspots will return with enough flare activity to cause daytime radio blackouts during the weekend. The predictions right now call for a maximum Kp index of 3 for both days, and an estimated Ap index of 15. The low geomagnetic activity forecast is very conservative, though, since I still expect the sunspots to hold enough punch to create coronal mass ejections that will elevate the geomagnetic activity. As you know, the more active the geomagnetic field, the more likely the ionosphere will recombine, lowering the MUF. The 10.7-cm flux is expected to be between 160 and 170, since the sunspots will have returned. Therefore, I expect that the higher bands will be poor to good, depending on the path: Trans-equitorial paths (N/S) will be the best, while polar paths will be the worst. The middle HF bands will be fair to good. If flaring occurs with enough intensity, the nighttime low HF bands will be degraded, too. Those operating in low-latitudes will fair the best, to be sure. But, that is typical, during any condition. Those who will be at high-latitudes will certainly have a challenge. But, that is what CW is all about, right? I'll keep a watch on things, and post an update as we get closer to the contest weekend. More at http://prop.hfradio.org 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Update 6-XI-2003
The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the X25+ flare of 4-XI-2003 should arrive anytime, today. It will be a glancing blow, yet there is an expectation that it will be strong enough to trigger a major geomagnetic storm. Then, tomorrow or Saturday the Earth may be exposed to a fast solar wind stream from a small low- latitude coronal hole, now rotating in geoeffective position. This can maintain active to minor storm conditions for one or two days. The Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) event is still active, but decreasing, possibly ending by the end of 6-XI- 2003. However, if shock-accelerated protons increase the 10MeV proton flux due to the arrival of a CME later today, the PCA could be extended for another one to two days. This will shut down over-the-pole and high-latitude propagation paths. Solar activity has dropped over the last day, and the background X-ray levels are finally down in the B range. This is making it better for the lower bands. The 10.7-cm flux is decreasing, as well, so the highest HF bands are less likely to propagate. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Update: 6-XI-2003 (b)
The CME from the X28 flare (4-XI-2003) has arrived at 1937Z 6-XI-2003. The deviation was a moderate 31 nT at the Boulder, CO station. We expect the Kp index to increase, possibly as high as 6. Right now, the Kp is 5. Some moderate Auroral activity might result for the next 12 hours. More at http://prop.hfradio.org ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] The word on the super X-class flare
I have just finished a talk with Christopher Balch from the Space Environment Center, NOAA, regarding the super flare from 1955Z, 4-XI-2003. This flare saturated the instruments on the observing satellites for about 13 minutes, during the peak of the flare. This has made an accurate measurement of the flare's intensity difficult. The instruments stopped at X17.4. The scientists and engineers who designed the original sensor equipment back in the 1970's had events that caused saturations at much lower levels. They redesigned things to handle X17-class events, thinking that it would be enough. This time, it was not. Since we do not have any accurate record of flare intensity prior to the 1970's, our perspective of this latest series of flares is somewhat limited. Certainly, X-class flares of this magnitude are not regular events. But, they certainly are not unheard of. To pull out a rough estimate, but with very little confidence on this number, on how often we might see such activity, we think this is something we could see every 20 to 40 years. Currently, as I write this, the Space Environment Center, who is the official last word on what a flare's classification becomes, is finalizing their analysis on this super flare. Chris has obtained two likely candidates: Using a standard log-normal fit analysis, the flare was X25. Using a result from an individual from the University of Colorado, Boulder, who analyzed HESSI data on the event ( http://hessi.ssl.berkeley.edu/ ), the flare was an X28. The SEC has a procedure that Chris is finalizing, and validating. He will announce the final reading later today. Most likely, this flare will be somewhere between the X25 and X30 levels. Certainly, the geomagnetic storming of the last few weeks is one of the highest in many years. It is officially number six on the scale of intensity in the last 30 years. The two major sunspot groups, the number of flares, and the CME activity makes this period the most active and intense of this solar cycle. We have witnessed a truely spectacular historical moment. What's coming down the line? I usually base my forecasts on a 27-day solar rotation period. What happens today in terms of geomagnetic activity is possibly what will occur 27 days from now. Of course, sunspot and coronoal hole activity might decline duing that rotation period. The outlook is that in about 5 to 10 days, a sunspot group that had a lot of activity is going to rotate back around and start to influence space weather. But the big question is: Will these huge sunspot groups that just left us retain enough energy to last the 27- day rotation, to deliver another period of extreme solar weather? NASA is planning to launch in November 2005 the Stereo Mission ( http://stereo.jhuapl.edu/mission/overview/overview.html ), which will place an observing space craft leading the Earth's orbit, and another space craft trailing the Earth, such that they will be able to see around the sun at what is coming and what has went. This certainly will become a major tool in our forecasting of space weather, and propagation. I will post my propagation forecast on http://prop.hfradio.org/ late today. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Major X-class Flare at 1955Z 4-XI-2003
At 1955Z, 4-XI-2003, an X-class flare peaked from region 486. Initial data from GEOS 12 indicates that the flare is an X18, while GEOS 10 shows it as X17. However, there is speculation (i.e., Thomas Giella (KN4LF), others) that it might be much stronger, as this event saturated the sensor for 11 minutes. I have viewed preliminary images of this very bright and significant flare, and it is truly amazing. If the flare is larger than the X17 flare from recent activity, this will become one of the two most powerful flares recorded. The flare has caused extensive radio blackout conditions on most of the HF radio spectrum. Ground wave communications is not significantly impacted, nor is line-of-sight VHF and above. A type II Radio Emission began at 1942Z 4-XI-2003 with an estimated velocity of 1268 km/s. Interplanetary type II bursts are statistically strongly associated with fast CME and interplanetary shock waves (Cane, Shelley Howard 1987). Thus, there is a chance that we will have at least a glancing blow from the side of the possible CME associated with this new flare. I will update when more data is known. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Bulletin - 2-XI-2003
At 1725Z 2-XI-2003 an X8.3 flare occurred. A strong radio blackout occurred. The flare was from region 486, and a proton event commenced by 1800Z. All high- energy fluxes exceeded the threshold used to determine a proton event. A polar cap absorption event (PCA) is in progress. A type II radio burst was observed, indicating a coronal mass ejection (CME) was related to this flare. A partial halo (meaning that it is not squarly directed at Earth) CME was visible at 1730Z. This CME will only glance us, but to what degree is in question. Forecasts call for about a Kp level of 5 when it arrives. The CME will glance us sometime late on 3-XI-2003 to early 5-XI-2003. Currently, our elevated Kp index is due to a small equatorial coronal hole. Flux is still high enough to support some F-layer propagation on low VHF and the high HF frequenies. The low bands will suffer somewhat due to the elevated geomagnetic activity. Region 486 and 488 are rotating around the western limb of the sun by 5-XI-2003, and things should quiet down somewhat. Until then, some additional flare activity is possible. The coronal hole activity, however, will continue. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Re: [SWL] Bands back
11/2/03 10:09:48 AM, Levine, Joan [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Strange...after 45 minutes of dead quiet...10,15,17 meters back at 1810 UTC. No explanation. The higher frequencies always bounce back after a solar flare. As the X-ray radiation subsides from a flare, the D-layer's ionization subsides. This allows the higher frequencies to start punching through the D-layer, again, making it up to the E and F layers. If the MUF is high enough in the F layer, those higher frequency signals will then be refracted and propagated. A good place to view the effected area of a flare and the estimated frequencies affected is at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/dregion.html A full list of links, like this, are on my propagation page ( http://prop.hfradio.org ). 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Update, 30-X-2003, 2000Z
A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with yesterday's X10-class flare (peak at 2049Z 29-X-2003) impacted the Earth's magnetosphere today at about 1700Z 30- X-2003. Kp index reading show 7 and 8 at many reporting stations. Bz is at the moment negative. At least a G4-level geomagnetic storm is in progress as well as a very strong proton event (PCA) and space radiation storm. This space radiation storm has reached an S4 level on 29-X-2003, and is again on the rise. It is the second-most energetic event during this current solar cycle, 23. Expect this storm to coninue, especially with the prediction of further flare events. The Aurora index is 10 (maximum), as I write this. This indicates a very strong Aurora. Look for continued AU propagation (reports from yesterday show VHF propagation via AU as high as 222 MHz) and visuals at high to some middle latitudes. I expect a medium to high probability for visual aurora in northern states of the US, tonight. Solar activity remains at extremely high levels. Region 486 is now the largest sunspot complex of the solar cycle. This very huge sunspot covers an area of over 7.8 billion square miles and there is some indication that it might continue to grow. The flare potential is still very high and further X-class flares are possible, which will affect us until this region rotates over the western solar limb on 5-XI-2003. Several M-class flares, and a number of C- class have occurred already from this region, since the X10 flare. Region 488 has further developed and has merged with former region 493. The region could produce X-class flares. Some M-class and C-class flaring has occurred from this region, as well. I agree with Thomas (KN4LF) and others that the X17 flare was historic. But, I would say that this increase in solar activity is not uncommon during the decline of a solar cycle. Other cycles have given us the same sort of excitement. What's more, we're in the fall Aurora season. Twice a year, near the equinox, the conditions are favorable for Aurora. Such is the time now. Having the sun provide us with lots of aurora-causing events has given opportunity for some unexpected but welcomed VHF propagation, and visual light shows. Overall conditions right now are rather poor. I do hear some north/south paths on 11 meters open, but not much more than that. WWV is non-existant at my location, except a faint fading whisper at 10 MHz. Lower frequencies are a bit more alive. The flux is nicely high, so when the geomagnetic fields settle down a bit, the higher level of ionization provided stronger openings on the HF bands, and higher in frequency. Last night, I was hearing SW DX on as high as 17 MHz. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] NW7US Propagation Bulletin - 28-X-2003 - 1900Z
Folks: What an exciting time for radio enthusiasts! This past weekend's media hype about a major geomagnetic and solar storm was unfortunate and unwarranted. But, today, solar events have occurred that has the whole propagation science community buzzing. I just finished talking with Mike Weaver from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration Space and Environment Center (NOAA SEC). He is the Solar Forecaster that has been on duty for the last four days. Last week, I also spoke with Bill Murtagh, who is beginning a shift to cover the next few days. Our discussion focused on today's events, and what will transpire over the next few days. The following is my perspective of current solar and geophysical conditions and the forecast for the next 48 hours or so. On 28 October 2003 UTC, an X17.2-class flare from NOAA Region 486 occurred at 0951Z, peaking at 1110Z. This caused severe radio blackouts (R4 is the reported level, see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ for details on the scales used) on the sunlit side of the Earth (which would have been morning, on the eastern coast of North America). It also created an S3 (strong) solar radiation storm. Associated with this flare are a proton event and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). This flare is the second most intense of the current solar cycle. It is not historical. We expect several of these large flares during any given solar cycle. The proton event started at about 1330Z, and has exceeded all threshold levels, causing a Polar Cap Absorption event (PCA). It is expected that this proton event will be prolonged and last for the next 36 hours, to some degree. This will cause transpolar path degradation (don't expect any DX over the poles nor over any high-latitude paths) for the next few days. The CME was a full-halo, and is directed squarely at the Earth. Based on the speed and recordings, so far, Mike expects it to impact the Magnetosphere at about 1500Z 29 October 2003. When it hits, the shock alone will produce at least G3-level geomagnetic activity. This would translate to a Kp index of about 8, even if the IMF (Interplanetary Magnetic Field) is not pointed south when the CME arrives. After the initial shock wave, if the Bz is negative, indicating that the IMF has turned south, the Kp index will remain high, with a possible Kp of 9 during the passage of the CME. This will cause between a level G4 and a G5 (severe to extreme) geomagnetic storm. This will severely degrade HF and MW radio communications (while possibly enhancing VHF/UHF propagation). The timing of the arrival of the CME shock will occur after sunrise for those in North America. Therefore, I do not expect to see any Aurora tonight, local time on 28 October 2003. However, I do expect radio auroral mode propagation during the day of 29 October 2003, and continuing into the night of the same day. If the IMF remains negative, there is a strong chance of a prolonged severe geomagnetic storm, with associated Aurora viewable as far south as southern California and Florida. Continued radio blackouts are likely from new flare activity. As I write this, we are in the decline of a new M-class flare. There are eight main regions on the visible solar disk, three of which are actively producing flares. One of these is about to rotate out of view. One of the new regions just rotating into view is active, and has already produced some M-class flares. Overall conditions: In the next 12 to 20 hours, expect great conditions on frequencies above 15 MHz, while in general, all HF will have periods of radio blackouts during the flare events, if they occur. (And, they will occur). Sometime around 1500Z, tomorrow (29 Oct 2003), expect all HF communications to become severely degraded with the arrival of the CME shock, and for a severe to extreme geomagnetic storm to commence and last for a prolonged period. S3-level (severe) solar radiation storm conditions will last for the next 24 to 48 hours. I expect a lot more activity during this week, but I don't view this as a third peak in this current solar cycle, number 23. Several past cycles have had such bursts during the decline of those cycles. I'll post more about this soon. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685
[HCDX] RE: [CQ-Contest] NW7US Propagation Bulletin - 28-X-2003 - 1900Z
On Tue, 28 Oct 2003, Robert McGwier wrote: I have a MUCH more cynical view of what was going on. The Space weather folks are under the absolute axe from congress. Nothing like a load of publicity when you need it most . . . . That's a nice thought... but false. NOAA is not the only reporting agency. Other agencies, in other countries are reporting these events. What's more, HF propagation shows the result of these events. Unless you are willing to believe that NOAA can cause world-wide propagation degradation, you can't hold onto such cynical views. 73 de NW7US ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] And propagation is....(update)
I think that the attempt to post the following was lost in transition. I am sending it again. If you get two copies, my apologies. I am also updating it: Just as my original prediction ( http://hfradio.org/forums/viewtopic.php?t=67 ) states, the contest weekend was good. We are in the ending stretch, right now. I have talked with various stations over the last 24 hours, asking, how is your propagation? TI5A, for instance, said, It is much better than we expected, and today (26) it is much better than yesterday. That tracks with what others have been telling me. My original forecast was that the initial night of the contest weekend would be rough, but then things would continue to improve, and that the IMF would stay mostly northward in orientation, making the Geomagnetic field settle down. Current Kp is at 2. We did not have any geomagnetic storm for the last 24 hours, or more. My forecast was correct. And the contest is NOT a bust. What is more, the original forecast that I printed in the CQ Magazine column tracks closely - but not as excellent as was thought based on the 27-day solar cycle prediction. There has been some flaring this weekend - which has closed down the lowest HF frequencies (but, who is going to use 160 or 80 during the middle of the day?). However, it seemed to me that 80 was fair, and 40 was better, yet. This morning, I am DXing LA, California on AM Broadcast at 1600 UTC - and BBC on 7160 kHz with a fair signal. This latest flare is an M-class, and has very SLOWLY decreased in strength (this is an interesting topic, for another posting, sometime). For most of the day yesterday, and again today, these X-ray levels have been prolonged and extended. Yesterday, for example, the background X-ray level was at least in the C-class range. Currently, from IPS, Australia: Global HF Propagation Conditions for 1500Z on 26 Oct, 2003 are: Low Latitude: Normal; Mid Latitude: Normal; Hi Latitude: Fair- Normal. Bands from 10 meters to 40 meters is still hopping, from my location in the Pacific Northwest. An X-Class flare occurred, possibly peaking at 1812Z 26 October 2003. Radio blackout on the sunlit side of Earth is subsiding slowly, as it is a prolonged decay. To see some K readings and the trend since the 24th: http://geo.phys.uit.no/knum/ What's in store for the next few days? Other than the occassional flares: 26 Oct 2003 10CM FLUX: 235 / AP: 021 27 Oct 2003 10CM FLUX: 235 / AP: 037 28 Oct 2003 10CM FLUX: 230 / AP: 070 Just think! What a GREAT flux level. Some continued flaring will occur. A new solar region has rotated into view but is rather simple and won't do much, we think. A CME occurred at 0131 UTC 26 Oct 2003, and again at 0318 UTC. These were geoeffective, and should impact the Earth's Magnetosphere sometime on 28 October 2003. Since it will hit head-on, it will increase the geomagnetic activity on the 28th. Between then and now, DXing will be GREAT, inbetween the occassional flare. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Update on Propagation - an interesting night in North America...
Currently, it is about 0750Z, 25 Oct 2003 UTC. I have been taking snapshots every few hours, starting at about 0400 UTC. Kp is currently 3 at most reporting stations. Aurora index is 5 to 6 at most. IPS reports low- and mid- latitude conditions as 'normal', high-latitude conditions as 'fair'. This is following my thoughts on how the geomagnetic conditions will progress. The last six hour flare activity peak is an M1-class flare. The last 24 hour peak is also an M1-class. So, it is possible that the idea of a fair to good Saturday DX day might still play out. I sure hope so. Earlier, while mobile with 100 watts and an outbacker antenna, I talked with an Alaskan station on 20 meters who was working some DX in the CQ WW SSB contest. She had a modest station. Under most geomagnetic storms, I cannot normally work Alaska. Nor can Alaska work most anywhere, being under the Aurora zone. Yet, she and I talked - and her report was a fair amount of DX (mostly North/South at that hour). I heard, and worked some, many DX - from JA to South America. I heard Carribean stations working N/S and E/W stations, including RU stations. So, it does look like things are moving along fairly well, even when many thought that the worst storm for many moons was upon us. Let's see how the rest of the day progresses... Cross our fingers! Maybe the contest will not be a bust. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Where's the Beef? Propagation update, 1820Z 25-X-2003
Well, where's the beef? Er, where's the storm? Just as I stated, this was a non- event. No historically major storm took place. Just as I had predicted, the bands are hopping, today. I live in a valley surrounded by mountains on three sides. I use a dipole antenna. I am hearing many stations on 10 meters, even more on 15, and a huge amount on 20. I have worked N/S paths, like TI5A and LT1F, on 10 meters. They report propagation as being moderate to good. At the time of my writing this, the figures are: 10.7-cm Flux: 191 Ap: 36 Kp: 3 (36 nT) Solar Wind: 511 km/s at 2.2 protons/cm3 On 2003 Oct 25 1813Z: Bz: 10.8 nT Looking at the trend of the Kp at several reporting locations, the highest was 5, most were 3 or 4, since last night. The latest flare was a C-class. There is a chance, still, of a more powerful flare. So far, though, we have had great sailing. On the shortwave bands, last night and this morning, conditions were fair. I heard some paths open that have not normally been open. Other paths were closed, that normally were open. This follows with the way conditions are going. There is a chance for a glancing blow from a passing CME sometime late today and tomorrow. The Bz might turn negative during such a grazing passage of the CME, so we might have some elevation in the Kp late today and early tomorrow. However, conditions should continue to be useful for the contest period. At least, in my humble opinion. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Update - Propagation today, tomorrow, and the next day...
on October 31, 2003, regarding the funding they need to stay alive. (See http://prop.hfradio.org for a look at this hearing). More to follow, as new information becomes available... 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Tonight's conditions...
For the last three 'three-hour' reporting periods, the Kp index has been LOW. As I write this, the Kp index is 0 - that is right. Zero. Ap is 10. Yet, the 10.7-cm solar flux is aboe 180. WOW. Conditions should be REALLY hot tonight and through the morning, for general HF DXing. I would love to hear real reports on what you are hearing, especially if you hear unusual DX - stuff that is normally difficult or impossible to DX. Thanks, 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] URGENT - Contact your representative
From the CQ Newsroom: NOAA Space Weather Service Threatened The service on which many amateurs depend for reports on ionospheric conditions may have its funding sharply cut or eliminated under two versions of a Congressional spending plan for Fiscal Year 2004. The Space Environment Center, part of the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), provides space weather reports on solar and geomagnetic activity that affect the ionosphere, which in turn affects radio propagation. In addition, solar flares and similar events can damage satellites, so advance knowledge can help protect them. Propagation predictions in CQ and other publications depend on these space weather observations. The Space Environment Center is actually operated jointly by NOAA and the Air Force, but its funding is in the NOAA budget. The SEC suffered a 40% budget cut in the current fiscal year, and the House budget proposal for 2004 calls for an additional 40% cut. The Senate version of the bill cuts funding for the SEC altogether, along with the somewhat cynical comment in an accompanying report that the 'Atmospheric' in NOAA does not extend to the astral. Absolutely no funds are provided for solar observation. Such activities are rightly the bailiwick of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Air Force. We understand from SEC staff that the House Science Committee's Environment, Technology and Standards Subcommittee will be holding a hearing next week (October 30) on the funding bill, and that letters and comments from the public will be entered into the record. If you are concerned about the possible loss of information gathered and disseminated by the SEC, you may write to the House Committee On Science, Environment, Technology and Standards Subcommittee, 2320 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC 20515. You should direct your comments to the Chairman, Rep. Vernon Ehlers (R-MI), ask that they be included in the record of the Oct. 30 hearing, and explain in NON-TECHNICAL terms how you benefit from the space weather services provided by the SEC, and how you would be adversely affected if those services were further reduced or eliminated. A full list of the members of the Environment, Technology and Standards Subcommittee is below. If the list includes your Representative, and you are inclined to write, you might also send a letter or comment directly to your Representative. House Committee on Science Subcommittee on Environment, Technology, and Standards Republican Members Vernon J. Ehlers, Michigan, Chairman Nick Smith, Michigan Gil Gutknecht, Minnesota Judy Biggert, Illinois Wayne Gilchrest, Maryland Timothy Johnson, Illinois Michael Burgess, Texas Democratic Members Mark Udall, Colorado, Ranking Minority Member Brad Miller, North Carolina Lincoln Davis, Tennessee Brian Baird, Washington Jim Matheson, Utah Zoe Lofgren, California Ex-oficio members: Sherwood L. Boehlert, New York, Chairman, House Science Committee Ralph M. Hall, Texas, Ranking Minority Member, House Science Committee To contact any Member of Congress by e-mail, go to http://www.house.gov and follow prompts to find contact information for the member you want to reach. 73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA) -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines : : http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA : : 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation : : A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! : : Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) : : WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ : : 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
[HCDX] Slightly off-topic, but radio related...
I found out about this company that is looking for people to help them deploy an international RF testing network for GSM Cellular systems. They are looking for people throughout Europe and Asia. For helping them they are paying for your internet connection or paying to have a new connection installed for you. You should check out the information at http://free.consergent.com I wonder if they will provide technical feedback about the results of these test? What sort of antenna will they provide? 73 de Tomas, NW7US // AAR0JA -- : Propagation Editor, CQ/PopComm Magazines - Member, USArmy MARS : : http://prop.hfradio.org : Brinnon, Washington 122.93W 47.67N : : A creator of solutions : http://accessnow.com : Perl Rules! : : 10x56526 - FISTS 7055 - FISTS NW 57 - http://hfradio.org/barsc : : A.R.Lighthouse Society 144 -- CW, SSB, RTTY, AMTOR, DX-Hunting : ---[Start Commercial]- World Radio TV Handbook 2003 is out! Order it now! http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059677/hardcoredxcom ---[End Commercial]--- Hard-Core-DX mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www2.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx http://www.hard-core-dx.com/ ___ THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt
