Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[James Downs]

On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 03:49:13PM -0400, valdis.kletni...@vt.edu wrote:

> Compound interest is a bitch.

Sure is, but a numerically fixed change YoY is not compound interest.

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[bzs]

If you want to read a really, really depressing article on all this
read this one in Foreign Affairs:

  Why Carbon Pricing Isn’t Working

  
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-06-14/why-carbon-pricing-isnt-working

It isn't so much the specifics of carbon pricing.

It's the harsh cold slap of reality about how the world, even when
well-intentioned, works.

In a tiny nutshell:

You know how many (developed) countries boast about meeting or
exceeding their carbon goals via carbon markets?

Those markets are rigged.

The governments hand out carbon credits like Zimbabwe printed fiat
cash in trade for the usual things politicians like in return such as
campaign contributions or support for some pet legislation.

And then boast about how their major industries have met or exceeded
carbon goals. How would you know otherwise?

To bring it back on topic, somewhat, the internet is a very, very
special place where things mostly work as promised and expected. If
the page loads it's working.

Be glad when there's no thuggish legislator trying to get you to rig
the numbers to make it only appear to be working.

But we'll get there, just give it time...

-- 
-Barry Shein

Software Tool & Die| b...@theworld.com | http://www.TheWorld.com
Purveyors to the Trade | Voice: +1 617-STD-WRLD   | 800-THE-WRLD
The World: Since 1989  | A Public Information Utility | *oo*

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Rob McEwen]

On 7/26/2018 4:22 PM, valdis.kletni...@vt.edu wrote:

Let's run the math.  1mm/additional per year. So 1 the first year, 2 aditional
the second, ... and the century year then adds 100mm or 4 inches*by itself*.
But we need to add years 1 to 99's contributions too...

sum(1..100) = 101 * 50 or 5050mm.  Divide by 25.4 and you get 198 inches
cumula


You misinterpreted what I said. I was merely saying that the current 
yearly increase is about 1 mm more than the yearly increase was from 40 
years ago. (But maybe not even that much!) I was NOT saying that each 
year was increasing by a rate that was mm more than the previous year.


Your calculation is based on year-to-year acceleration of growth. In 
fact, that year-to-year /*acceleration*/ of rising sea levels is 
actually a ~0.025 mm average increase over the previous year. (this is 
HALF the thickness of a single sheet of paper!) So try your calculation 
again - except see how impressive that "compound interest" you talk 
about is when the year-to-year acceleration of growth over the previous 
year is only 0.025 mm.


ALSO - I say "average rate of increase" because the graph is not a 
smooth line. Like almost everything, it is jagged - where some years 
show signs of more rapid acceleration, and other years show a decrease 
in acceleration, or even a lowering of the sea levels. Anytime one of 
the other hits a historical extreme, it raises curiosity that we might 
be in the middle of a fundamental shift to a "new normal". But before 
anyone assumes that we're about to hit a new normal where that .025 mm 
year-to-year increase in the rate of rising - is about to accelerate - 
note that, in fact, the sea levels have actually LOWERED in the past 
couple of years. (not just rising less fast - ACTUALLY LOWERING). (see 
blue line at the end of this graph: 
https://insideclimatenews.org/content/average-global-sea-level-rise-1993-2017)


--
Rob McEwen
https://www.invaluement.com
+1 (478) 475-9032

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Justin M. Streiner]

All:

Let's kindly kill off the portions of this thread that have absolutely 
nothing to do with running a network.  Political rants, plate tectonics, 
Math 101, and debating whether or not climate change is a thing really 
have no place on this list / in this context.


Thank you
jms

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[valdis . kletnieks]

On Thu, 26 Jul 2018 20:48:58 -, "Naslund, Steve" said:
> Don't panic though about the 70 meter rise though.  According to this article
> by National Geographic, it would take around 5000 years to melt that much ice
> even assuming the current temperature rise continues.

Was that article from before or after we discovered just how fast an ice shelf
can catastrophically collapse?


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Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Jeff Shultz]

It might be worth noting that with Plate Tectonics, the shoreline
itself is not exactly locked in place either. Particularly on the West
Coast in ring of fire territory. Come the predicted Cascadia Fault
earthquake, the landing stations are going to first be shaken by the
EQ, then swamped by a major tsunami, and after everything settles
down, potentially find the ocean lapping at their doorsteps, not
because the water level has risen, but because the land level has
dropped perhaps 1 meter as the North American Plate "unlocked" and
extended over the Juan de Fuca plate during the EQ. Bandon, Nedonna
Beach, Pacific City, Rockaway Beach and Warrenton, Oregon take note...
Not saying the oceans aren't rising - but there are other factors that
may be potentially in play as well.

FWIW.
On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 1:44 PM Naslund, Steve  wrote:
>
> Here is a simple question to answer while you are at it.  Once the arctic ice 
> and glaciers melt, what will cause the ocean levels to continue to rise at 
> this incredible rate?  The total estimate for sea level rise would be 70 
> meters if absolutely all ice on the face of the Earth melted.  A radical 
> change no doubt but it will not continue forever.
>
> The Earth right now is about as warm as it was during the previous 
> interglacial period which was about 125,000 years ago.  At that time sea 
> level was actually 4 METERS HIGHER THAN IT IS RIGHT NOW.  So we know that 
> before humans were widespread on Earth, sea level was 4 METERS higher than it 
> is right now.  I guess this goes against the "worse than it has ever been" 
> kind of arguments".
>
> Steven Naslund
> Chicago IL
>
>
>
> >Pretty hard to accept 198 inches since NASA's own data shows no more than 
> >250mm or 9.4 inches since 1888.  You would have to assume there are no 
> >balancing factors.  If the earth gets warmer then there >is also more 
> >evaporation of the oceans which causes more rainfall which helps moderate 
> >temperature and moves oceanic water inland.  I agree the climate is getting 
> >warmer but doubt that trend continues >forever.  History says it won't.  
> >Common sense says that in any closed system, things do not change 
> >exponentially forever.  I really do need an answer to the question of why in 
> >certain years ocean >levels were actually lower than the year before like 
> >2010.  I honestly want to know why that happens.
> >
> >Steven Naslund
> >Chicago IL
>


-- 
Jeff Shultz

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RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Naslund, Steve]

Don't panic though about the 70 meter rise though.  According to this article 
by National Geographic, it would take around 5000 years to melt that much ice 
even assuming the current temperature rise continues.

Steven Naslund
Chicago IL


>Here is a simple question to answer while you are at it.  Once the arctic ice 
>and glaciers melt, what will cause the ocean levels to continue to rise at 
>this incredible rate?  The total estimate for sea >level rise would be 70 
>meters if absolutely all ice on the face of the Earth melted.  A radical 
>change no doubt but it will not continue forever.
>
>The Earth right now is about as warm as it was during the previous 
>interglacial period which was about 125,000 years ago.  At that time sea level 
>was actually 4 METERS HIGHER THAN IT IS RIGHT NOW.  So >we know that before 
>humans were widespread on Earth, sea level was 4 METERS higher than it is 
>right now.  I guess this goes against the "worse than it has ever been" kind 
>of arguments".
>
>Steven Naslund
>Chicago IL

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Stephen Satchell]

On 07/26/2018 10:48 AM, William Herrin wrote:
> Submarine cable is needed for deeper water (higher pressures) with
> more armor against damage since it's just laying on the seafloor
> exposed to everything that happens by.


Let's be specific:  everything with teeth that happens by.

RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Naslund, Steve]

Here is a simple question to answer while you are at it.  Once the arctic ice 
and glaciers melt, what will cause the ocean levels to continue to rise at this 
incredible rate?  The total estimate for sea level rise would be 70 meters if 
absolutely all ice on the face of the Earth melted.  A radical change no doubt 
but it will not continue forever.

The Earth right now is about as warm as it was during the previous interglacial 
period which was about 125,000 years ago.  At that time sea level was actually 
4 METERS HIGHER THAN IT IS RIGHT NOW.  So we know that before humans were 
widespread on Earth, sea level was 4 METERS higher than it is right now.  I 
guess this goes against the "worse than it has ever been" kind of arguments".

Steven Naslund
Chicago IL



>Pretty hard to accept 198 inches since NASA's own data shows no more than 
>250mm or 9.4 inches since 1888.  You would have to assume there are no 
>balancing factors.  If the earth gets warmer then there >is also more 
>evaporation of the oceans which causes more rainfall which helps moderate 
>temperature and moves oceanic water inland.  I agree the climate is getting 
>warmer but doubt that trend continues >forever.  History says it won't.  
>Common sense says that in any closed system, things do not change 
>exponentially forever.  I really do need an answer to the question of why in 
>certain years ocean >levels were actually lower than the year before like 
>2010.  I honestly want to know why that happens.
>
>Steven Naslund
>Chicago IL

RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Naslund, Steve]

Pretty hard to accept 198 inches since NASA's own data shows no more than 250mm 
or 9.4 inches since 1888.  You would have to assume there are no balancing 
factors.  If the earth gets warmer then there is also more evaporation of the 
oceans which causes more rainfall which helps moderate temperature and moves 
oceanic water inland.  I agree the climate is getting warmer but doubt that 
trend continues forever.  History says it won't.  Common sense says that in any 
closed system, things do not change exponentially forever.  I really do need an 
answer to the question of why in certain years ocean levels were actually lower 
than the year before like 2010.  I honestly want to know why that happens.

Steven Naslund
Chicago IL

>Let's run the math.  1mm/additional per year. So 1 the first year, 2 aditional 
>the second, ... and the century year then adds 100mm or 4 inches *by itself*.
>But we need to add years 1 to 99's contributions too...
>
>sum(1..100) = 101 * 50 or 5050mm.  Divide by 25.4 and you get 198 inches 
>cumulative.
>
>
>Be glad the actual rate of acceleration is less than 1mm/year.

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[valdis . kletnieks]

On Thu, 26 Jul 2018 16:07:56 -0400, Rob McEwen said:
> On 7/26/2018 3:49 PM, valdis.kletni...@vt.edu wrote:
> > Compound interest is a bitch.

>> it took ~40 years or so to get to that 1mm increase (to be extra clear,
>> this is a reported increase over how much oceans are rising now compared
>> to ~40 years ago.

In other words, it's acceleration, second derivative, not velocity first 
derivative.
Which means that the number added each time period is bigger each time period.
The growth per year now is bigger than the growth per year 40 years ago.

> But NOT so much when the rate of increase is THIS tiny. Yes, if the rate
> of the increase holds steady, then this could start causing a lot of
> problems EVENTUALLY. But this still only adds up to an ADDITIONAL 4
> inches (total!) per century (over what would have happened).

Let's run the math.  1mm/additional per year. So 1 the first year, 2 aditional
the second, ... and the century year then adds 100mm or 4 inches *by itself*.
But we need to add years 1 to 99's contributions too...

sum(1..100) = 101 * 50 or 5050mm.  Divide by 25.4 and you get 198 inches
cumulative.

Be glad the actual rate of acceleration is less than 1mm/year.


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RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Naslund, Steve]

There are lots of ways to construct a graph to look scary.  Just try to redraw 
that graph as the change in overall depth of the ocean.  It would be so flat as 
to be useless.  Wikipedia (might be right or not) says the average depth of the 
ocean is 3,688 meters or 12,100 feet.  If we take that and convert to mm we get 
3,688,000.  So let's take some of the number thrown around here.

If we have a 250 mm rise since 1888 we have a percentage change of 0.01 %

If we have around a mm per year, we have a an annual change of .27%, if it 
is 3 mm per year that is .81%

Just for reference 1 mm is about the size of the average pin head and a flea is 
approximately 1.5mm in length.

Not exactly an alarming graph when you look at it that way.  By the way I am 
also really interested in why sea level actually fell in 2010 according to the 
NASA satellite graph from 56 mm to 48 mm.  Were we especially good people that 
year?

Steven Naslund
Chicago IL


>> JUST BARELY curve upwards. So I dug into THEIR actual data - and even 
>> THEIR data shows something like a cumulative 1mm/year increase - and - 
>> it took ~40 years or so to get to that 1mm increase (to be extra 
>> clear, this is a reported increase over how much oceans are rising now 
>> compared to ~40 years ago. But I'm not even sure this added up to even 
>> a full 1 mm.)

>Compound interest is a bitch.

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Rob McEwen]

On 7/26/2018 3:49 PM, valdis.kletni...@vt.edu wrote:

On Thu, 26 Jul 2018 15:39:51 -0400, Rob McEwen said:


JUST BARELY curve upwards. So I dug into THEIR actual data - and even
THEIR data shows something like a cumulative 1mm/year increase - and -
it took ~40 years or so to get to that 1mm increase (to be extra clear,
this is a reported increase over how much oceans are rising now compared
to ~40 years ago. But I'm not even sure this added up to even a full 1 mm.)

Compound interest is a bitch.



But NOT so much when the rate of increase is THIS tiny. Yes, if the rate 
of the increase holds steady, then this could start causing a lot of 
problems EVENTUALLY. But this still only adds up to an ADDITIONAL 4 
inches (total!) per century (over what would have happened). That is an 
amount and time-scale that warrants concern and long-range planning. 
However, extreme measures that would harm our economy in the short term 
(and in many cases wouldn't have helped anyways) are counter productive 
because they then put us on a long-term less healthy economic trajectory 
that would make us less able to afford the future changes that would be 
needed to deal with this extremely long-term problem.


ANALOGY: Freshman college kid becomes a health nut and spends all his 
money on only the best specialized organic foods, exotic vitamins, and a 
membership at the best health club, even paying extra for a personalized 
trainer. Then he has to drop out of college because he can't afford it. 
Then he runs out of money and can't get a decent paying job because he 
doesn't have a college education. Now he eats horrible cheap food and 
works long hours at a low paying job that leaves him little time to 
properly exercise. (in general - solving a SMALL problem with a BIG 
solution - like this - causes problems)


--
Rob McEwen

RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Naslund, Steve]

And just to be abundantly clear.  I am not denying climate change and I am all 
for eliminating pollution and our impact on the planet in general.  However I 
firmly believe that there will be further climate change regardless of what 
humans do.  That is the cycle of the planet so far and way before we were here.

My main argument is against the case that rising sea level constitutes some 
kind of emergency for network infrastructure.  I don't believe it is an 
emergency and believe that our infrastructure is constantly evolving and all of 
these routes will be handled in the natural course of things.  I say this 
coming from years of network infrastructure engineering and installations and 
time spent in trenches, central offices, and manholes all around the world.  
Given that the backbone of the Internet is mostly running on fiber optics which 
are highly water resistant, localized coastal flooding is less of an issue than 
ever.  Did you ever look into how far an oceanic cable comes ashore before it 
hits the landing station?  If you did you would not be worried about a few mm 
of ocean rise.

Steven Naslund
Chicago IL

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[valdis . kletnieks]

On Thu, 26 Jul 2018 19:43:37 -, "Naslund, Steve" said:
> As an engineer I would like to know how we separate what would be happening
> without us from what effect we are having.

Well, when all previous data shows temperature changes on the order of degrees
per millenium (absent major incidents like the Yellowstone supervolcano going 
off
or the Chixlulub impact), and suddenly you see an effect that's degrees per 
decade..

In other words, the same way you realize a DDoS is hitting your net when the 
packet
rate for a host isn't changing in percent per week, but percent by minute



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Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[valdis . kletnieks]

On Thu, 26 Jul 2018 15:39:51 -0400, Rob McEwen said:

> JUST BARELY curve upwards. So I dug into THEIR actual data - and even
> THEIR data shows something like a cumulative 1mm/year increase - and -
> it took ~40 years or so to get to that 1mm increase (to be extra clear,
> this is a reported increase over how much oceans are rising now compared
> to ~40 years ago. But I'm not even sure this added up to even a full 1 mm.)

Compound interest is a bitch.


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RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Naslund, Steve]

I agree with this.  I suppose you could take tons of measurements and average 
them out to be pretty accurate but I am not sure how you would account for 
tidal gravitational effects which vary all the time.  Seems like the precision 
claimed would be really hard to pull off without knowing exactly the 
gravitational effect at that location at exactly the same time.  I am also 
wondering how many points on the ocean you would have to take this measurement 
and how often to get that level of precision.  Given the altitude of the 
satellites the percentage of error here is super small, not even OTDR units can 
get that kind of precision on a measurement.

You would also have to align the satellite measurements with the pre-satellite 
measurement which could not have possibly have the same level of precision.  A 
statistics person would have to tell me if that methodology is even valid.  The 
level charts go back to the 1880s and I can't imagine a global network of 
measurement for that time.  I'm also pretty sure they were not taking 
measurements in mm in the United States so there is that conversion error to 
deal with not to mention the lack of international measurement standards.

Steven Naslund
Chicago IL

>Chris,
>
>I understand how radar altimetry works. I would like to understand how
>they achieve the claimed precision. 3.2mm is one heck of a precise
>measurement from a flying platform hundreds of kilometers away,
>particularly when that requires the platform itself to be located with
>even higher precision against some reference points deemed stable for
>the purpose of making the measurement.
>
>

RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Naslund, Steve]

Well, the problem might be that I am an old guy and remember very well in the 
70s when the "scientific community" screamed at us about the coming ice age.  
Next, we had global warming.  Now we just call it climate change because we 
just don't know which way it's going to go.  Those same anthropologists also 
know that in my area which is Illinois, it was once much hotter and we had 
Tyrannosaurus running around.  We also had ice ages that carved the Great Lakes 
that I am sitting next to.  All of that way before we were here.  Did we warm 
up the climate and prevent the coming ice age in the 70's or could it be that 
the Earth is still in the cycle of coming out of the last ice age?  We know the 
climate has changed without our input.  As an engineer I would like to know how 
we separate what would be happening without us from what effect we are having.  
I am not denying that there are changes but I am not confident in what effect 
we have and whether our effect is counter or accelerating the normal trend.

So, I am not sure what is causing climate change but I am very sure that there 
will be major climate changes on Earth.  Whether a species survives or not is a 
matter of whether they adapt.  

Steven Naslund

>Anthropologists say (there was a pretty good article on this in The
>Atlantic a year or two ago) that's what we (humanity) have done
>historically, adapted, eventually learned to eat acorns or rats or
>whatever*.
>
>And very little if anything to combat the basic problem even if we
>understood it well enough.
>
>We'll adapt and adapt because the problems tend to evolve slowly.
>
>Unfortunately I tend to think that's the likely outcome here simply
>because whatever we (more developed countries) do several billion
>people out there will undo faster because let's face it they want to
>eat regularly, have reliable electricity, etc. etc. etc.
>
>And a lot of what could be done works against their getting all that,
>at least if it's limited to their means.
>
>Perhaps not in theory.
>
>But call me when the G8 or G20 proposes to plunk down the many
>trillions it would likely cost to provide the rest of them with
>fertilizer and farming techniques and energy generation plants and so
>on which aren't contributing to the problem.
>
>Didn't India recently state that they won't even talk about slowing
>down the rate of increase (2nd derivative) of coal usage for at least
>ten years?
>
>Not picking on India, they have their reasons, but just trying to be
>realistic and move past these late-night dorm room bull sessions about
>how the world ought to work.
>
>* One significant exception was crop and field rotation which worked
>very well where it was possible.
>
>-- 
>-Barry Shein
>
>Software Tool & Die| b...@theworld.com | 
>http://www.TheWorld.com
>Purveyors to the Trade | Voice: +1 617-STD-WRLD   | 800-THE-WRLD
>The World: Since 1989  | A Public Information Utility | *oo*

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Rob McEwen]

On 7/26/2018 1:32 PM, Rod Beck wrote:

You are simply wrong. The sea level is rising at an increasing rate. The 
average sea level will go up by 30 centimeters to 1 meter by 2100. And of 
course, the storm surge will increase by a multiple of that. Sources: NOAA.


Looking at the SAME sources (NOAA, NASA, etc) - as scary as those "Mt 
Everest" charts look (where they make 3.5mm/year rising look like Mt 
Everest) - the lines on THEIR charts are ALMOST perfectly straight and 
JUST BARELY curve upwards. So I dug into THEIR actual data - and even 
THEIR data shows something like a cumulative 1mm/year increase - and - 
it took ~40 years or so to get to that 1mm increase (to be extra clear, 
this is a reported increase over how much oceans are rising now compared 
to ~40 years ago. But I'm not even sure this added up to even a full 1 mm.)


These sources ALSO have all kind of scary PREDICTIONS or ESTIMATES about 
FUTURE acceleration that goes MUCH faster - just like they did 10 and 20 
years go - but their scary predictions never materialize.


Does pointing out these FACTS - using data from the SAME sources that 
you are using - STILL qualify me for the "flat earth society"?


On this same thread, I've also been called a "climate change denier", 
and otherwise insulted multiple times - for just pointing out clear 
indisputable facts. Others keep pointing out how "a majority of 
scientist disagree" - yet that 97% figure that keeps getting thrown 
around - was from ONE SINGLE extremely flawed study that has since been 
thoroughly debunked.


BTW - in my original message, I did state:


"But I suppose that it might be a good idea to take inventory of the 
absolute lowest altitude cables and make sure that they are not 
vulnerable to the type of flooding that might happen more often after a 
few decades from now after the ocean has further risen about 2 inches? 
But the sky is not falling anytime soon."



So ALSO - everyone - please ALSO stop arguing with a "straw man" here - 
I never said that there wasn't anything to be concerned about.


--
Rob McEwen

RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Naslund, Steve]

In 2000 the network runs on completely different infrastructure than it did in 
1900 (what little network existed).  By 2100 I am pretty sure we will be on 
different infrastructure by then.  Are you saying there will be no changes in 
network topology to account for that?  By 2100 neither you or I will have to 
worry about it in any case unless you know of a more major breakthrough in the 
near future.

Steve


>Steve,

>

>You are simply wrong. The sea level is rising at an increasing rate. The 
>average sea level will go up by 30 centimeters to 1 meter by 2100. And of 
>course, the storm surge will increase by a multiple of that.

>

>Sources: NOAA.

>

>It means access networks along the two coasts will be increasingly down.

>r.

-

RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[bzs]

On July 26, 2018 at 16:56 snasl...@medline.com (Naslund, Steve) wrote:
 > 
 > Since we have been able to cope with train derailments, backhoes, forest 
 > fires, traffic accidents, etc, I am pretty confident that the networks will 
 > keep up with the lightning fast 1/8" per year rise in sea level.  

Anthropologists say (there was a pretty good article on this in The
Atlantic a year or two ago) that's what we (humanity) have done
historically, adapted, eventually learned to eat acorns or rats or
whatever*.

And very little if anything to combat the basic problem even if we
understood it well enough.

We'll adapt and adapt because the problems tend to evolve slowly.

Unfortunately I tend to think that's the likely outcome here simply
because whatever we (more developed countries) do several billion
people out there will undo faster because let's face it they want to
eat regularly, have reliable electricity, etc. etc. etc.

And a lot of what could be done works against their getting all that,
at least if it's limited to their means.

Perhaps not in theory.

But call me when the G8 or G20 proposes to plunk down the many
trillions it would likely cost to provide the rest of them with
fertilizer and farming techniques and energy generation plants and so
on which aren't contributing to the problem.

Didn't India recently state that they won't even talk about slowing
down the rate of increase (2nd derivative) of coal usage for at least
ten years?

Not picking on India, they have their reasons, but just trying to be
realistic and move past these late-night dorm room bull sessions about
how the world ought to work.

* One significant exception was crop and field rotation which worked
very well where it was possible.

-- 
-Barry Shein

Software Tool & Die| b...@theworld.com | http://www.TheWorld.com
Purveyors to the Trade | Voice: +1 617-STD-WRLD   | 800-THE-WRLD
The World: Since 1989  | A Public Information Utility | *oo*

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[William Herrin]

On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 2:00 PM, Chris Adams  wrote:
> Once upon a time, William Herrin  said:
>> On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 12:58 PM, Jason Kuehl  
>> wrote:
>> > Science https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
>>
>> "The first graph tracks the change in sea level since 1993 as observed
>> by satellites."
>>
>> I *really* want to understand the technology that lets a satellite
>> hundreds of miles in the sky detect a 3mm change in average global sea
>> level between the start and end of the year with an error bar that
>> grows to only 4mm over a quarter of a century.
>
> Well, you must not *really* want to understand, since there's a "Learn
> more" link to follow on the above page that (after a couple more clicks)
> would lead you to this page that has some explanation:
>
> https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/techniques/altimetry.html

Chris,

I understand how radar altimetry works. I would like to understand how
they achieve the claimed precision. 3.2mm is one heck of a precise
measurement from a flying platform hundreds of kilometers away,
particularly when that requires the platform itself to be located with
even higher precision against some reference points deemed stable for
the purpose of making the measurement.


On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 3:09 PM, Jameson, Daniel
 wrote:
> Its not satellite data,  The data is from tidal sensors

The second chart is from tidal sensors.

Regards,
Bill Herrin


-- 
William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
Dirtside Systems . Web: 

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Chris Adams]

Once upon a time, Jameson, Daniel  said:
> Its not satellite data,  it's the exact same data-set that NOAA provides for 
> ocean levels; The data is from tidal sensors;  the data is relayed via 
> satellite so... technically ;).

No, you are wrong.  Did you read any of the provided links?  It is
actually gathered with satellite-based radar and laser systems, not
tidal sensors.

-- 
Chris Adams 

RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Jameson, Daniel]

Its not satellite data,  it's the exact same data-set that NOAA provides for 
ocean levels; The data is from tidal sensors;  the data is relayed via 
satellite so... technically ;). It's kind of funny the data in the table,  vs 
the chart-data presented,  some .orgs say 80mm, some say 60mm all depends on 
when you start counting. I'd like to see the raw data,  geospatially portray 
it,  and get a sense of the true impact;  an average of a statisticcal 
averages, smoothed and corrected over 60 days with a self-ratcheting 
baseline... Not sure how valuable the data here is other than support a 
presupposition.

-Original Message-
From: NANOG [mailto:nanog-boun...@nanog.org] On Behalf Of Chris Adams
Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2018 12:01 PM
To: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

Once upon a time, William Herrin  said:
> On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 12:58 PM, Jason Kuehl  wrote:
> > Science https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
> 
> "The first graph tracks the change in sea level since 1993 as observed
> by satellites."
> 
> I *really* want to understand the technology that lets a satellite
> hundreds of miles in the sky detect a 3mm change in average global sea
> level between the start and end of the year with an error bar that
> grows to only 4mm over a quarter of a century.

Well, you must not *really* want to understand, since there's a "Learn
more" link to follow on the above page that (after a couple more clicks)
would lead you to this page that has some explanation:

https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/techniques/altimetry.html
-- 
Chris Adams 

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Chris Adams]

Once upon a time, William Herrin  said:
> On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 12:58 PM, Jason Kuehl  wrote:
> > Science https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
> 
> "The first graph tracks the change in sea level since 1993 as observed
> by satellites."
> 
> I *really* want to understand the technology that lets a satellite
> hundreds of miles in the sky detect a 3mm change in average global sea
> level between the start and end of the year with an error bar that
> grows to only 4mm over a quarter of a century.

Well, you must not *really* want to understand, since there's a "Learn
more" link to follow on the above page that (after a couple more clicks)
would lead you to this page that has some explanation:

https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/techniques/altimetry.html
-- 
Chris Adams 

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[William Herrin]

On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 1:06 PM, Rod Beck
 wrote:
> only submarine cable can handle long term immersion

Any gel-core direct burial cable can handle long-term shallow water
immersion. Steve is correct: the fiber in many manholes are underwater
until the next time someone needs to climb down and make a new splice.
I once asked a dark fiber provider to splice from a particular manhole
and they had to send someone out to look because it had somehow fallen
off their map. When they popped the cover to look, the vault was
completely inundated. Hadn't caused them the slightest difficulty.

Submarine cable is needed for deeper water (higher pressures) with
more armor against damage since it's just laying on the seafloor
exposed to everything that happens by.

Regards,
Bill Herrin


-- 
William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
Dirtside Systems . Web: 

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Rod Beck]

Steve,


You are simply wrong. The sea level is rising at an increasing rate. The 
average sea level will go up by 30 centimeters to 1 meter by 2100. And of 
course, the storm surge will increase by a multiple of that.


Sources: NOAA.


It means access networks along the two coasts will be increasingly down.

r.

-



From: NANOG  on behalf of Naslund, Steve 

Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2018 7:08 PM
To: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

So, I accept the data.  Going back to 1880 I will be generous and say that you 
have a 250 mm rise in sea level (which is about 10 inches for us Imperial 
types).  I think we will probably be ready to outrun that problem.  Let's get 
back to real network threats like BGP Hijacking which can wipe you out tomorrow.

Steven Naslund
Chicago IL

>-Original Message-
>From: NANOG [mailto:nanog-boun...@nanog.org] On Behalf Of Jason Kuehl
>Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2018 11:58 AM
>To: rod.b...@unitedcablecompany.com
>Cc: NANOG
>Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet
>
>Science https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
>
>Give the data yourself.

RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Naslund, Steve]

If you live near a coast, you are going to experience bigger storms and loss of 
power more often than someone that lives inland.  If you live in the Himalayas 
you are going to get more snow and cold weather.  Not my problem if you like 
your beach front property.  However I have not seen any major damage to fiber 
based networks and I was a first responder during Hurricane Katrina.  The 
majority of damage was to flooded central offices which is going to happen from 
time to time no matter where you are at.  Overall network reliability has 
increased greatly over the years which is undeniable.  This all just seems very 
alarmist to me.  Also, even if we assume you are correct about ocean levels 
threatening networks (which I don't believe to be even close to the biggest 
threats), what exactly can the NANOG community do about it for you.There 
are real, live, NOW, threats like the BGP hijackings that have been responded 
to that are real operational responses.

Steven Naslund
Chicago IL


>But the reality is that if you get bigger storm surges, your Internet access 
>will be knocked. You will get loss of power and even if the backbone holds up, 
>the access networks will not. Every time we get a severe flood here in 
>Budapest, power is >knocked out and we are down hard. The general population 
>may not take much comfort in your installation of thousands of miles of fiber. 
>Just a fact.

>

>Regards,

>

>Roderick.

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[William Herrin]

On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 12:58 PM, Jason Kuehl  wrote:
> Science https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

"The first graph tracks the change in sea level since 1993 as observed
by satellites."

I *really* want to understand the technology that lets a satellite
hundreds of miles in the sky detect a 3mm change in average global sea
level between the start and end of the year with an error bar that
grows to only 4mm over a quarter of a century.

Regards,
Bill Herrin



-- 
William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
Dirtside Systems . Web: 

RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Naslund, Steve]

Again, the original argument was about rising ocean levels not all causes of 
floods.  Are floods a threat, yep but not as much as it used to be before 
fiber.  Is the rise of ocean levels by 10” per century the cause of all floods, 
no its not.


Steven Naslund
Chicago IL

>From: Rod Beck [mailto:rod.b...@unitedcablecompany.com]
>Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2018 12:13 PM
>To: Naslund, Steve; nanog@nanog.org
>Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet
>

>Easy way to settle it. Look at Hurricane Sandy and Katrina. If they had no 
>effect on terrestrial cables, then this is probably a misplaced concern.

>

>- R.

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Rod Beck]

But the reality is that if you get bigger storm surges, your Internet access 
will be knocked. You will get loss of power and even if the backbone holds up, 
the access networks will not. Every time we get a severe flood here in 
Budapest, power is knocked out and we are down hard. The general population may 
not take much comfort in your installation of thousands of miles of fiber. Just 
a fact.


Regards,


Roderick.



From: NANOG  on behalf of Naslund, Steve 

Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2018 7:02 PM
To: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

BTW, I have installed thousands of miles of fiber and been submerged in plenty 
of manholes over the years.  If you have been in a manhole in the spring you 
would know what a non-event you are talking about here.  A lot of your Internet 
is under water a lot of the time anyway (not even counting all of the oceanic 
stuff).


>Since we have been able to cope with train derailments, backhoes, forest 
>fires, traffic accidents, etc, I am pretty confident that the networks will 
>keep up with the lightning fast 1/8" per year rise in >sea level.
>


Steven Naslund
Chicago IL

RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Naslund, Steve]

Don't know but the backbone of the Internet is not running on it.  Also, a 
hurricane is not the same as a rise in sea level at less than 10" per century 
which was the threat described here.  There are all kinds of floods for reasons 
other than rising sea levels.

Steven Naslund
Chicago IL

>-Original Message-
>From: Valdis Kletnieks [mailto:val...@vt.edu] On Behalf Of 
>valdis.kletni...@vt.edu
>Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2018 12:09 PM
>To: Naslund, Steve
>Cc: nanog@nanog.org
>Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet
>
>
>Have they finished fixing all the corroded copper wiring from Sandy pumping 
>sea water into lower Manhattan?

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Rod Beck]

Easy way to settle it. Look at Hurricane Sandy and Katrina. If they had no 
effect on terrestrial cables, then this is probably a misplaced concern.


- R.



From: Naslund, Steve 
Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2018 7:10 PM
To: Rod Beck; nanog@nanog.org
Subject: RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet


I know of tons of manholes that are continuously full of water every time I 
have been out to them, I am pretty sure those cables have dealt with the 
immersion for quite a number of years.



Steven Naslund

Chicago IL





>I don't have a strong feeling on this matter, but it is not the average 
>increase that matters. Every small increase in average has a multiplier effect 
>on storm surge.

>http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/23/1715895114.

Rising hazard of storm-surge 
flooding
www.pnas.org
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is one for the history books. It has blown a 
number of records out of the water. Harvey dumped more rain on the United 
States than any previous hurricane. Irma maintained the highest category 5 
longer than any storm anywhere in the world. September 2017 has accumulated the 
most cyclone energy of any month on record in the Atlantic. Last, but not 
least, if early estimates of damages hold up, three of the five costliest 
storms in US history will have occurred this year: Harvey, Irma, and Maria 
(1⇓–3). The other two are Katrina and Sandy, which flooded New Orleans in 2005 
and New York in 2012 (Fig. 1), respectively. A new study in PNAS by Garner et 
al. (4) tackles a critical and highly topical question: How will coastal flood 
risk change in the future on a warming Earth? They approach this question in a 
case study for New York, but most coastal cities in the world will be facing 
similar issues in the coming decades and, indeed, centuries. Fig. 1. Map of New 
York City floodi


>

>Nonetheless, my guess is that the real threat is to general property close to 
>the shore, not the terrestrial cables even though they are not waterproof 
>(only submarine cable can handle long term immersion).

>

>Regards,

>

>Roderick.

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Rod Beck]

That is true of all science today, Stephen. That is a particularly bad argument 
on your part. Virtually all science depends on grants and academic and 
government financing. So you are invoking conspiracy theories. Good work.



From: NANOG  on behalf of Stephen Satchell 

Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2018 7:00 PM
To: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

On 07/26/2018 09:48 AM, Rod Beck wrote:
> Unfortunately, the science community disagrees with Rob and you.

You mean the community that lives or dies on whether they get grant
money?  And the way to get grant money is to justify why they could be
fed MORE money.  Can you imagine how the "science community" would
continue to survive?

Now, the medical research community is another story.

Perhaps a better use for that grant money would be to develop Best
Practices for installing fiber cable that can withstand immersion to a
depth of 200 feet without failing -- thereby coming up with something
positive in light of the so-called scientific predictions.

Instead of "the sky is falling", say "here is how to prop up the sky on
a dollar a day."

RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Naslund, Steve]

I know of tons of manholes that are continuously full of water every time I 
have been out to them, I am pretty sure those cables have dealt with the 
immersion for quite a number of years.

Steven Naslund
Chicago IL



>I don't have a strong feeling on this matter, but it is not the average 
>increase that matters. Every small increase in average has a multiplier effect 
>on storm surge.

>http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/23/1715895114.

>

>Nonetheless, my guess is that the real threat is to general property close to 
>the shore, not the terrestrial cables even though they are not waterproof 
>(only submarine cable can handle long term immersion).

>

>Regards,

>

>Roderick.

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[valdis . kletnieks]

On Thu, 26 Jul 2018 16:56:08 -, "Naslund, Steve" said:

> Since we have been able to cope with train derailments, backhoes, forest
> fires, traffic accidents, etc, I am pretty confident that the networks will
> keep up with the lightning fast 1/8" per year rise in sea level.

Have they finished fixing all the corroded copper wiring from Sandy pumping
sea water into lower Manhattan?


pgp9C0B3tsANt.pgp
Description: PGP signature

RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Naslund, Steve]

So, I accept the data.  Going back to 1880 I will be generous and say that you 
have a 250 mm rise in sea level (which is about 10 inches for us Imperial 
types).  I think we will probably be ready to outrun that problem.  Let's get 
back to real network threats like BGP Hijacking which can wipe you out tomorrow.

Steven Naslund
Chicago IL 

>-Original Message-
>From: NANOG [mailto:nanog-boun...@nanog.org] On Behalf Of Jason Kuehl
>Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2018 11:58 AM
>To: rod.b...@unitedcablecompany.com
>Cc: NANOG
>Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet
>
>Science https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
>
>Give the data yourself.

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Rod Beck]

I don't have a strong feeling on this matter, but it is not the average 
increase that matters. Every small increase in average has a multiplier effect 
on storm surge.

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/23/1715895114.


Nonetheless, my guess is that the real threat is to general property close to 
the shore, not the terrestrial cables even though they are not waterproof (only 
submarine cable can handle long term immersion).


Regards,


Roderick.



From: NANOG  on behalf of Naslund, Steve 

Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2018 6:56 PM
To: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet


Since we have been able to cope with train derailments, backhoes, forest fires, 
traffic accidents, etc, I am pretty confident that the networks will keep up 
with the lightning fast 1/8" per year rise in sea level.

Steven Naslund
Chicago IL

RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Naslund, Steve]

BTW, I have installed thousands of miles of fiber and been submerged in plenty 
of manholes over the years.  If you have been in a manhole in the spring you 
would know what a non-event you are talking about here.  A lot of your Internet 
is under water a lot of the time anyway (not even counting all of the oceanic 
stuff).


>Since we have been able to cope with train derailments, backhoes, forest 
>fires, traffic accidents, etc, I am pretty confident that the networks will 
>keep up with the lightning fast 1/8" per year rise in >sea level.  
>


Steven Naslund
Chicago IL

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Stephen Satchell]

On 07/26/2018 09:48 AM, Rod Beck wrote:
> Unfortunately, the science community disagrees with Rob and you.

You mean the community that lives or dies on whether they get grant
money?  And the way to get grant money is to justify why they could be
fed MORE money.  Can you imagine how the "science community" would
continue to survive?

Now, the medical research community is another story.

Perhaps a better use for that grant money would be to develop Best
Practices for installing fiber cable that can withstand immersion to a
depth of 200 feet without failing -- thereby coming up with something
positive in light of the so-called scientific predictions.

Instead of "the sky is falling", say "here is how to prop up the sky on
a dollar a day."

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Jason Kuehl]

Science https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

Give the data yourself.

On Thu, Jul 26, 2018 at 12:50 PM Rod Beck 
wrote:

> Unfortunately, the science community disagrees with Rob and you.
>
>
> Have a great day, big guy.
>
>
> Regards,
>
>
> Roderick.
>
>
> 
> From: Mel Beckman 
> Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2018 6:16 PM
> To: Rod Beck
> Cc: Rob McEwen; nanog@nanog.org
> Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet
>
> Well, Rod, you just made a claim with zero support, while Rob provided
> accurate citations proving every one of his statements.
>
> But it’s not wasting our time with the Fiber Optic Networks Are Doomed by
> Sea Level Rise society :)
>
> See what I did there? I brought the discussion back to the original claim,
> which I think has now been finally thoroughly debunked. Sea levels no more
> threaten the Internet than marshmallows. Less, probably :)
>
>  -mel
>
> > On Jul 26, 2018, at 9:08 AM, Rod Beck 
> wrote:
> >
> > Well, Rob, you are wrong on almost every point. But it is not wasting
> our time with the Flat Earth society.
> >
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> >
> > Roderick.
> >
> >
> > 
> > From: NANOG  on behalf of Rob McEwen <
> r...@invaluement.com>
> > Sent: Monday, July 23, 2018 4:52 AM
> > To: nanog@nanog.org
> > Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet
> >
> > For the past 100+ years, the sea levels have been rising by about 2-4 mm
> > per year. If you go to the following two sites:
> >
> > https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html
> [http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/apple-icon-144x144.png]<
> https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html>
>
> Is sea level rising? - NOAA's National Ocean Service<
> https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html>
> oceanservice.noaa.gov
> There is strong evidence that sea level is rising and will continue to
> rise this century at increasing rates.
>
>
> > [http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/apple-icon-144x144.png]<
> https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html>
> >
> > Is sea level rising? - NOAA's National Ocean Service<
> https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html>
> > oceanservice.noaa.gov
> > There is strong evidence that sea level is rising and will continue to
> rise this century at increasing rates.
> >
> >
> > https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
> >
> > You'll see all kinds of scary language about dire predictions about how
> > the sea levels are rising and accelerating. And you'll see SCARY charts
> > that look like Mt. Everest. But when you dig into the actual data,
> > you'll find that there MIGHT have been (at most!) a CUMULATIVE 1mm/year
> > acceleration... but even that took about 4 decades to materialize, it
> > could be somewhat within the margin of error, and it might be a part of
> > the fake data that often drives this debate. Meanwhile, global warming
> > alarmists have ALREADY made MANY dire predictions about oceans levels
> > rising - that ALREADY didn't even come close to true.
> >
> > The bottom line is that there is no trend of recently observed sea level
> > rising data that is even close to being on track to hit all these dire
> > predictions within the foreseeable future. And even as the West has
> > reduced (or lessened the acceleration of) CO2 emissions - this has been
> > easily made up for by the CO2 emission increases caused by the
> > modernization of China and India in recent decades.
> >
> > And, again, there were articles like this 10, 15, and even 20 years ago
> > that made very similar predictions - that didn't happen. So, it is hard
> > to believe that the dire predictions in this article could come true in
> > 15 years.
> >
> > But I suppose that it might be a good idea to take inventory of the
> > absolute lowest altitude cables and make sure that they are not
> > vulnerable to the type of flooding that might happen more often after a
> > few decades from now after the ocean has further risen about 2 inches?
> > But the sky is not falling anytime soon.
> >
> > Rob McEwen
> >
> >
> >> On 7/22/2018 9:01 PM, Sean Donelan wrote:
> >> https://www.popsci.com/sea-level-rise-internet-infrastructure
> >>
> >> Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet, sooner than you
> >> think
> >>
> >> [...]
> >> Despite its magnitude, this network is increasingly vulnerable to sea
> >> levels inching their way higher, according to research presented at an
> >> academic conference in Montreal this week. The findings estimate that
> >> within 15 years, thousands of miles of what should be land-bound
> >> cables in the United States will be submerged underwater.
> >>
> >> “Most of the climate change-related impacts are going to happen very
> >> soon,” says Paul Barford, a computer scientist at the University of
> >> Wisconsin and lead author of the paper.
> >> [...]
> >>
> >
> > --
> > Rob McEwen
> >
>


-- 
Sincerely,

Jason W Kuehl
Cell 920-419-8983
jason.w.ku...@gmail.com

RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Naslund, Steve]

Since we have been able to cope with train derailments, backhoes, forest fires, 
traffic accidents, etc, I am pretty confident that the networks will keep up 
with the lightning fast 1/8" per year rise in sea level.  

Steven Naslund
Chicago IL

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Rod Beck]

Unfortunately, the science community disagrees with Rob and you.


Have a great day, big guy.


Regards,


Roderick.



From: Mel Beckman 
Sent: Thursday, July 26, 2018 6:16 PM
To: Rod Beck
Cc: Rob McEwen; nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

Well, Rod, you just made a claim with zero support, while Rob provided accurate 
citations proving every one of his statements.

But it’s not wasting our time with the Fiber Optic Networks Are Doomed by Sea 
Level Rise society :)

See what I did there? I brought the discussion back to the original claim, 
which I think has now been finally thoroughly debunked. Sea levels no more 
threaten the Internet than marshmallows. Less, probably :)

 -mel

> On Jul 26, 2018, at 9:08 AM, Rod Beck  wrote:
>
> Well, Rob, you are wrong on almost every point. But it is not wasting our 
> time with the Flat Earth society.
>
>
> Regards,
>
>
> Roderick.
>
>
> 
> From: NANOG  on behalf of Rob McEwen 
> 
> Sent: Monday, July 23, 2018 4:52 AM
> To: nanog@nanog.org
> Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet
>
> For the past 100+ years, the sea levels have been rising by about 2-4 mm
> per year. If you go to the following two sites:
>
> https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html
[http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/apple-icon-144x144.png]

Is sea level rising? - NOAA's National Ocean 
Service
oceanservice.noaa.gov
There is strong evidence that sea level is rising and will continue to rise 
this century at increasing rates.


> [http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/apple-icon-144x144.png]
>
> Is sea level rising? - NOAA's National Ocean 
> Service
> oceanservice.noaa.gov
> There is strong evidence that sea level is rising and will continue to rise 
> this century at increasing rates.
>
>
> https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
>
> You'll see all kinds of scary language about dire predictions about how
> the sea levels are rising and accelerating. And you'll see SCARY charts
> that look like Mt. Everest. But when you dig into the actual data,
> you'll find that there MIGHT have been (at most!) a CUMULATIVE 1mm/year
> acceleration... but even that took about 4 decades to materialize, it
> could be somewhat within the margin of error, and it might be a part of
> the fake data that often drives this debate. Meanwhile, global warming
> alarmists have ALREADY made MANY dire predictions about oceans levels
> rising - that ALREADY didn't even come close to true.
>
> The bottom line is that there is no trend of recently observed sea level
> rising data that is even close to being on track to hit all these dire
> predictions within the foreseeable future. And even as the West has
> reduced (or lessened the acceleration of) CO2 emissions - this has been
> easily made up for by the CO2 emission increases caused by the
> modernization of China and India in recent decades.
>
> And, again, there were articles like this 10, 15, and even 20 years ago
> that made very similar predictions - that didn't happen. So, it is hard
> to believe that the dire predictions in this article could come true in
> 15 years.
>
> But I suppose that it might be a good idea to take inventory of the
> absolute lowest altitude cables and make sure that they are not
> vulnerable to the type of flooding that might happen more often after a
> few decades from now after the ocean has further risen about 2 inches?
> But the sky is not falling anytime soon.
>
> Rob McEwen
>
>
>> On 7/22/2018 9:01 PM, Sean Donelan wrote:
>> https://www.popsci.com/sea-level-rise-internet-infrastructure
>>
>> Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet, sooner than you
>> think
>>
>> [...]
>> Despite its magnitude, this network is increasingly vulnerable to sea
>> levels inching their way higher, according to research presented at an
>> academic conference in Montreal this week. The findings estimate that
>> within 15 years, thousands of miles of what should be land-bound
>> cables in the United States will be submerged underwater.
>>
>> “Most of the climate change-related impacts are going to happen very
>> soon,” says Paul Barford, a computer scientist at the University of
>> Wisconsin and lead author of the paper.
>> [...]
>>
>
> --
> Rob McEwen
>

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Mel Beckman]

Well, Rod, you just made a claim with zero support, while Rob provided accurate 
citations proving every one of his statements. 

But it’s not wasting our time with the Fiber Optic Networks Are Doomed by Sea 
Level Rise society :)

See what I did there? I brought the discussion back to the original claim, 
which I think has now been finally thoroughly debunked. Sea levels no more 
threaten the Internet than marshmallows. Less, probably :)

 -mel 

> On Jul 26, 2018, at 9:08 AM, Rod Beck  wrote:
> 
> Well, Rob, you are wrong on almost every point. But it is not wasting our 
> time with the Flat Earth society.
> 
> 
> Regards,
> 
> 
> Roderick.
> 
> 
> 
> From: NANOG  on behalf of Rob McEwen 
> 
> Sent: Monday, July 23, 2018 4:52 AM
> To: nanog@nanog.org
> Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet
> 
> For the past 100+ years, the sea levels have been rising by about 2-4 mm
> per year. If you go to the following two sites:
> 
> https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html
> [http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/apple-icon-144x144.png]
> 
> Is sea level rising? - NOAA's National Ocean 
> Service
> oceanservice.noaa.gov
> There is strong evidence that sea level is rising and will continue to rise 
> this century at increasing rates.
> 
> 
> https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
> 
> You'll see all kinds of scary language about dire predictions about how
> the sea levels are rising and accelerating. And you'll see SCARY charts
> that look like Mt. Everest. But when you dig into the actual data,
> you'll find that there MIGHT have been (at most!) a CUMULATIVE 1mm/year
> acceleration... but even that took about 4 decades to materialize, it
> could be somewhat within the margin of error, and it might be a part of
> the fake data that often drives this debate. Meanwhile, global warming
> alarmists have ALREADY made MANY dire predictions about oceans levels
> rising - that ALREADY didn't even come close to true.
> 
> The bottom line is that there is no trend of recently observed sea level
> rising data that is even close to being on track to hit all these dire
> predictions within the foreseeable future. And even as the West has
> reduced (or lessened the acceleration of) CO2 emissions - this has been
> easily made up for by the CO2 emission increases caused by the
> modernization of China and India in recent decades.
> 
> And, again, there were articles like this 10, 15, and even 20 years ago
> that made very similar predictions - that didn't happen. So, it is hard
> to believe that the dire predictions in this article could come true in
> 15 years.
> 
> But I suppose that it might be a good idea to take inventory of the
> absolute lowest altitude cables and make sure that they are not
> vulnerable to the type of flooding that might happen more often after a
> few decades from now after the ocean has further risen about 2 inches?
> But the sky is not falling anytime soon.
> 
> Rob McEwen
> 
> 
>> On 7/22/2018 9:01 PM, Sean Donelan wrote:
>> https://www.popsci.com/sea-level-rise-internet-infrastructure
>> 
>> Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet, sooner than you
>> think
>> 
>> [...]
>> Despite its magnitude, this network is increasingly vulnerable to sea
>> levels inching their way higher, according to research presented at an
>> academic conference in Montreal this week. The findings estimate that
>> within 15 years, thousands of miles of what should be land-bound
>> cables in the United States will be submerged underwater.
>> 
>> “Most of the climate change-related impacts are going to happen very
>> soon,” says Paul Barford, a computer scientist at the University of
>> Wisconsin and lead author of the paper.
>> [...]
>> 
> 
> --
> Rob McEwen
> 

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Rod Beck]

Well, Rob, you are wrong on almost every point. But it is not wasting our time 
with the Flat Earth society.


Regards,


Roderick.



From: NANOG  on behalf of Rob McEwen 

Sent: Monday, July 23, 2018 4:52 AM
To: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

For the past 100+ years, the sea levels have been rising by about 2-4 mm
per year. If you go to the following two sites:

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html
[http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/apple-icon-144x144.png]

Is sea level rising? - NOAA's National Ocean 
Service
oceanservice.noaa.gov
There is strong evidence that sea level is rising and will continue to rise 
this century at increasing rates.


https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

You'll see all kinds of scary language about dire predictions about how
the sea levels are rising and accelerating. And you'll see SCARY charts
that look like Mt. Everest. But when you dig into the actual data,
you'll find that there MIGHT have been (at most!) a CUMULATIVE 1mm/year
acceleration... but even that took about 4 decades to materialize, it
could be somewhat within the margin of error, and it might be a part of
the fake data that often drives this debate. Meanwhile, global warming
alarmists have ALREADY made MANY dire predictions about oceans levels
rising - that ALREADY didn't even come close to true.

The bottom line is that there is no trend of recently observed sea level
rising data that is even close to being on track to hit all these dire
predictions within the foreseeable future. And even as the West has
reduced (or lessened the acceleration of) CO2 emissions - this has been
easily made up for by the CO2 emission increases caused by the
modernization of China and India in recent decades.

And, again, there were articles like this 10, 15, and even 20 years ago
that made very similar predictions - that didn't happen. So, it is hard
to believe that the dire predictions in this article could come true in
15 years.

But I suppose that it might be a good idea to take inventory of the
absolute lowest altitude cables and make sure that they are not
vulnerable to the type of flooding that might happen more often after a
few decades from now after the ocean has further risen about 2 inches?
But the sky is not falling anytime soon.

Rob McEwen


On 7/22/2018 9:01 PM, Sean Donelan wrote:
> https://www.popsci.com/sea-level-rise-internet-infrastructure
>
> Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet, sooner than you
> think
>
> [...]
> Despite its magnitude, this network is increasingly vulnerable to sea
> levels inching their way higher, according to research presented at an
> academic conference in Montreal this week. The findings estimate that
> within 15 years, thousands of miles of what should be land-bound
> cables in the United States will be submerged underwater.
>
> “Most of the climate change-related impacts are going to happen very
> soon,” says Paul Barford, a computer scientist at the University of
> Wisconsin and lead author of the paper.
> [...]
>

--
Rob McEwen

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Randy Bush]

>> It's curious phenomena where we are very willing to ignore all the
>> data points that disagree with us, and accept the one data point that
>> agrees with us, even when admitted to be fabrication.
> Some people just always prefer to do the opposite of everyone else,
> and/or the obvious. I have many friends like this.

i have ex-friends like this

RE: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Marc Sachs]

If the Intertubes are going to all be under water in 15 years, then we need
a new cartoon from the New Yorker. I suggest this:

On the Internet nobody knows you are a phish


-Original Message-
From: NANOG  On Behalf Of valdis.kletni...@vt.edu
Sent: Monday, July 23, 2018 5:01 PM
To: William Herrin 
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[A. Pishdadi]

How often does someone ask you for a breakfast sandwich? 

On Mon, Jul 23, 2018 at 3:19 PM Bob Evans 
wrote:

> How much ocean water displacement is taking place in Hawaii as a result of
> eruptions?  How about volcanoes we don't know about deep in the ocean?
>
> In the last 5 years, California governments have played a negative roll in
> the burning of well over a million acres. These carbon emissions are
> rarely calculated and considered as a cause of global warming. How many
> California miles driven in cars = one 250,000 acre fire? I don't know.
>
> Did you know there are adults in California that don't think burning trees
> emit carbon emissions that count unless it happens in a man made fireplace
> ? Yes, most of those people went to high school in California.
>
> But anyways - can we please drop the non-internet related discussions from
> filling my nanog filtered technical email folders?
>
> Lots of smart people to have discussions with in nanog...maybe we create a
> list called nanog-other-st...@nanog.org
>
> Thank You
> Bob Evans
> CTO
>
>
>
>
> > On 23/07/2018 20:03, Owen DeLong wrote:
> >> It shows China, the most heavy handed of the three economies in the
> >> graphic as having an accelerating growth in carbon emissions. It does
> >> show that the EU started a downward trend earlier than the US, but that
> >> the downward trend in the EU appears to be leveling off and the US
> >> downward trend looks to be steeper now and accelerating.
> >>
> >> In addition, if you drill down to the individual EU countries, several
> >> of them are, in fact, headed up while the more market-based members of
> >> the EU seem to be headed down or having leveled off after a sharp
> >> decline earlier.
> >
> > The data is flawed. The carbon emissions per country don't include
> > import, so you can just import the most carbon-heavy product from China
> > and you will see your country emissions falling and China's growing.
> >
> > And the carbon emission of USA doesn't include Pentagon, while any other
> > army is included in it's country numbers.
> >
> > So we can' really compare such flawed data - these are just numbers for
> > politicians but they have nothing in common with reality.
> >
> > Regarding rising sea levels - I wonder why nobody mentioned submarine
> > fiber landing stations. If something will be affected, it will be them.
> >
> > --
> > Grzegorz Janoszka
> >
>
>
>

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[valdis . kletnieks]

On Mon, 23 Jul 2018 09:25:28 -0400, William Herrin said:

> Climate science is interesting and worthy, but it's still too shaky
> and incomplete to justify trillion dollar decisions.

So cleaner, less polluting energy sources don't justify it right there?
Check the air quality in Beijing or parts of India for a non-climate-change
reason to get off fossil fuel.

Also, we're going to run out of fossil fuels at some point, and delaying
that point by lowering our us of them is worth it right there.  We're resorting
to fracking to get out oil that wasn't economical before - and it's making
more of a mess than ever before.

> For anyone who would have us Act Now Before It's Too Late, alarmist is
> the right term.

Do you want to get out of South Florida real estate before or after the bubble
pops?  At some point, banks are going to start refusing to write mortgages for
the Miami area due to recurrent flooding - at which point all the real estate
will be underwater once their land values plummet (pun intended).


pgplzlNQSj8nd.pgp
Description: PGP signature

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[William Herrin]

On Mon, Jul 23, 2018 at 4:18 PM, Bob Evans  wrote:
> How much ocean water displacement is taking place in Hawaii as a result of
> eruptions?  How about volcanoes we don't know about deep in the ocean?

Not much on a global scale. The rift that has been erupting for what's
it been, 3 months or so now? That's added a little over a square mile
of coast, all of it where shallow water used to be.

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/maps_uploads/image-521.jpg

I plan to retire on the slope of a different volcano, so I've been
watching with interest.


> In the last 5 years, California governments have played a negative roll in
> the burning of well over a million acres. These carbon emissions are
> rarely calculated and considered as a cause of global warming. How many
> California miles driven in cars = one 250,000 acre fire? I don't know.

Greenhouse gasses are also emitted when dead plant matter rots in the
forest. Not as quickly but there's a whole lot of it.

https://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2017/decomposing-leaves-are-a-surprising-source-of-greenhouse-gases/


> But anyways - can we please drop the non-internet related discussions from
> filling my nanog filtered technical email folders?

Apparently not. ;)

Regards,
Bill Herrin



-- 
William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
Dirtside Systems . Web: 

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Bob Evans]

How much ocean water displacement is taking place in Hawaii as a result of
eruptions?  How about volcanoes we don't know about deep in the ocean?

In the last 5 years, California governments have played a negative roll in
the burning of well over a million acres. These carbon emissions are
rarely calculated and considered as a cause of global warming. How many
California miles driven in cars = one 250,000 acre fire? I don't know.

Did you know there are adults in California that don't think burning trees
emit carbon emissions that count unless it happens in a man made fireplace
? Yes, most of those people went to high school in California.

But anyways - can we please drop the non-internet related discussions from
filling my nanog filtered technical email folders?

Lots of smart people to have discussions with in nanog...maybe we create a
list called nanog-other-st...@nanog.org

Thank You
Bob Evans
CTO




> On 23/07/2018 20:03, Owen DeLong wrote:
>> It shows China, the most heavy handed of the three economies in the
>> graphic as having an accelerating growth in carbon emissions. It does
>> show that the EU started a downward trend earlier than the US, but that
>> the downward trend in the EU appears to be leveling off and the US
>> downward trend looks to be steeper now and accelerating.
>>
>> In addition, if you drill down to the individual EU countries, several
>> of them are, in fact, headed up while the more market-based members of
>> the EU seem to be headed down or having leveled off after a sharp
>> decline earlier.
>
> The data is flawed. The carbon emissions per country don't include
> import, so you can just import the most carbon-heavy product from China
> and you will see your country emissions falling and China's growing.
>
> And the carbon emission of USA doesn't include Pentagon, while any other
> army is included in it's country numbers.
>
> So we can' really compare such flawed data - these are just numbers for
> politicians but they have nothing in common with reality.
>
> Regarding rising sea levels - I wonder why nobody mentioned submarine
> fiber landing stations. If something will be affected, it will be them.
>
> --
> Grzegorz Janoszka
>

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Grzegorz Janoszka]

On 23/07/2018 20:03, Owen DeLong wrote:

It shows China, the most heavy handed of the three economies in the graphic as 
having an accelerating growth in carbon emissions. It does show that the EU 
started a downward trend earlier than the US, but that the downward trend in 
the EU appears to be leveling off and the US downward trend looks to be steeper 
now and accelerating.

In addition, if you drill down to the individual EU countries, several of them 
are, in fact, headed up while the more market-based members of the EU seem to 
be headed down or having leveled off after a sharp decline earlier.


The data is flawed. The carbon emissions per country don't include 
import, so you can just import the most carbon-heavy product from China 
and you will see your country emissions falling and China's growing.


And the carbon emission of USA doesn't include Pentagon, while any other 
army is included in it's country numbers.


So we can' really compare such flawed data - these are just numbers for 
politicians but they have nothing in common with reality.


Regarding rising sea levels - I wonder why nobody mentioned submarine 
fiber landing stations. If something will be affected, it will be them.


--
Grzegorz Janoszka

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Rob McEwen]

On 7/23/2018 2:03 PM, Owen DeLong wrote:

Actually, the graphic that is at the top of that link does support his claims.


I was thinking that too - but it could ALSO have something to do with 
the fact that literally hundreds of millions of Indians and Chinese 
citizens joined the 1st world economy - and started doing things like 
driving cars - in recent decades. That could be a larger factor than 
their particular political/economic systems.


ALSO: The BEST arguments on this thread for why we should worry about 
flooding or rising water levels - came from arguments that the actual 
continents are shifting in ways that cause certain coasts to rise or 
sink - regardless of the actual overall ocean depth. I don't know much 
about that - but I do know that (1) THAT particular situation has 
NOTHING to do with CO2 levels or emissions. (2) the parts of this 
conversation that does have to do with CO2 levels is specifically based 
on the theory that (a) high CO2 levels cause warming, which then (b) 
causes the icecaps to melt, which then causes (c) the sea levels to rise 
at an accelerated pace (beyond what it did when the overall CO2 levels 
were lower), as a direct result of increasing levels of CO2 in the 
atmosphere.


but (c) is junk science - since it is NOT happening - the acceleration 
of sea levels rising beyond an average of 3.5mm/year is almost 
non-existent - therefore discussions of CO2 levels and emissions 
unnecessarily politicizes this discussion.


Or, at least, the people who are complaining about how this doesn't 
belong on NANOG (which is a reasonable assessment) - and who complain 
about "climate deniers" - shouldn't be able to shut down certain factual 
and logical arguments (that rock their world) - yet not have a problem 
with continued discussion about CO2 levels and emissions. (that would be 
hypocritical and unscientific)


--
Rob McEwen

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Matt Harris]

On Mon, Jul 23, 2018 at 10:50 AM, Nick Hilliard  wrote:

>
>> The available data does not support your speculation.
>
> https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE?locations=US-EU-CN
>>
>
> Nick
>

Which data are you referring to?  Did you look at the three links that I
provided?

My linked stats are from the past couple of years, but the worldbank link
you posted contains a chart which only comes to 2012 at the latest, six
year old data.  The EPA report covers 1990-2016, the Rhodium Group report
primarily looks at 2005-2016 but also analyzes some information from 2017
and speculates on trends in the coming decades, and the GreentechMedia link
specifically looks at the EU and its member states during 2017.

So I'm very confused as to which data you're referring to, and which
speculation you're referring to, since it seems you're just pointing at
data which is several years out of date compared to the information I
provided in my post, which I believe to be the best and most recently
currently published.

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Owen DeLong]

> On Jul 23, 2018, at 08:50 , Nick Hilliard  wrote:
> 
> Matt Harris wrote on 23/07/2018 16:13:
>> I'm not sure exactly what this means, but in general, I think it's fair to
>> say that the US has taken a more market-driven approach that includes
>> working with industry to decrease carbon emissions.  During the same time
>> frame the EU, China, and other nations and regions that tend towards more
>> heavy handed top-down regulatory approaches to problems such as this seem
>> to be having trouble making progress and are in fact still headed in the
>> wrong direction.
> 
> The available data does not support your speculation.
> 
>> https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE?locations=US-EU-CN
> 
> Nick


Actually, the graphic that is at the top of that link does support his claims.

It shows China, the most heavy handed of the three economies in the graphic as 
having an accelerating growth in carbon emissions. It does show that the EU 
started a downward trend earlier than the US, but that the downward trend in 
the EU appears to be leveling off and the US downward trend looks to be steeper 
now and accelerating.

In addition, if you drill down to the individual EU countries, several of them 
are, in fact, headed up while the more market-based members of the EU seem to 
be headed down or having leveled off after a sharp decline earlier.

I don’t want Matt to be right, I’m not a big fan of the “market will solve all” 
mentality, but, in this case, the data you (Nick) presented does actually 
appear to largely support his claim.

Owen

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Eric Kuhnke]

I'm thankfully late to this thread and don't really agree with how
operational discussions can devolve into political debates...

But from a purely factual, operational consideration point of view at OSI
layer 1: There is a very real reason why some facilities are built the way
they are. Take a look at "NAP of the Americas", the Terremark-built
colo/datacenter/IX point in Miami. It's built to withstand a certain type
of hurricane. The first 12 feet of ground level can be flooded and it can
remain operational. Its engineering design is a very real consequence of
its location in Miami and its critical role related to submarine cable
traffic to/from the Caribbean, Latin America and Miami.

These Miami-specific design considerations are valid for discussion, the
same as earthquake related issues are for critical telecom infrastructure
in Seattle, Vancouver or San Francisco.

I would be very surprised if the people responsible for budgets and
planning of modern cable landing stations were not taking into account
extreme weather events, possible sea level rise, and other factors.



On Sun, Jul 22, 2018 at 6:01 PM, Sean Donelan  wrote:

>
> https://www.popsci.com/sea-level-rise-internet-infrastructure
>
> Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet, sooner than you
> think
>
> [...]
> Despite its magnitude, this network is increasingly vulnerable to sea
> levels inching their way higher, according to research presented at an
> academic conference in Montreal this week. The findings estimate that
> within 15 years, thousands of miles of what should be land-bound cables in
> the United States will be submerged underwater.
>
> “Most of the climate change-related impacts are going to happen very
> soon,” says Paul Barford, a computer scientist at the University of
> Wisconsin and lead author of the paper.
> [...]
>

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[John Sage]

On 07/23/2018 10:02 AM, Bryan Holloway wrote:

This thread needs to go elsewhere.



Seriously.

After that 5,000-post long "Proving Gig Speed" thread (that now seems to 
be entirely bored sysops-sysadmin who check the list once ever few days 
and reply to four or five posts and then leave for days) and now the 
Climate Change Deniers troll-of-the-week, it's getting to be about time 
to unsubscribe.


Again.

For the fourth or fifth time...


- John
--
John Sage
FinchHaven Digital Photography
Web: https://finchhaven.smugmug.com/
Old web: http://www.finchhaven.com/

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Sander Steffann]

Hi,

> The available data does not support your speculation.
> 
>> https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE?locations=US-EU-CN

Maybe it would be more fair to look at CO2 emissions per capita:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?locations=EU-US-CN

Cheers,
Sander

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Bryan Holloway]

This thread needs to go elsewhere.


On 7/23/18 8:30 AM, Dorn Hetzel wrote:

What sort of regulations and what sort of associated costs are you talking
about, if we can be specific?

On Mon, Jul 23, 2018 at 9:26 AM William Herrin  wrote:


On Mon, Jul 23, 2018 at 3:55 AM, Saku Ytti  wrote:

On Mon, 23 Jul 2018 at 05:55, Rob McEwen  wrote:

Meanwhile, global warming
alarmists have ALREADY made MANY dire predictions about oceans levels
rising - that ALREADY didn't even come close to true.


Now this discussion does not belong to NANOG, but 'global warming
alarmist' is worrying term to me. What is the perceived harm you're
trying to reduce?


Government regulation which results in increased costs.

Climate science is interesting and worthy, but it's still too shaky
and incomplete to justify trillion dollar decisions.

For anyone who would have us Act Now Before It's Too Late, alarmist is
the right term.

Regards,
Bill Herrin



--
William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
Dirtside Systems . Web: 

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Dorn Hetzel]

What sort of regulations and what sort of associated costs are you talking
about, if we can be specific?

On Mon, Jul 23, 2018 at 9:26 AM William Herrin  wrote:

> On Mon, Jul 23, 2018 at 3:55 AM, Saku Ytti  wrote:
> > On Mon, 23 Jul 2018 at 05:55, Rob McEwen  wrote:
> >> Meanwhile, global warming
> >> alarmists have ALREADY made MANY dire predictions about oceans levels
> >> rising - that ALREADY didn't even come close to true.
> >
> > Now this discussion does not belong to NANOG, but 'global warming
> > alarmist' is worrying term to me. What is the perceived harm you're
> > trying to reduce?
>
> Government regulation which results in increased costs.
>
> Climate science is interesting and worthy, but it's still too shaky
> and incomplete to justify trillion dollar decisions.
>
> For anyone who would have us Act Now Before It's Too Late, alarmist is
> the right term.
>
> Regards,
> Bill Herrin
>
>
>
> --
> William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
> Dirtside Systems . Web: 
>

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[keith]

I'd be more worried about tidal surge in lower manhattan. Look what t.s. Sandy 
did in terms of outages. 

Sent from my android device.

-Original Message-
From: Scott Weeks 
To: nanog@nanog.org
Sent: Mon, 23 Jul 2018 0:16
Subject: Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet





--- r...@invaluement.com wrote:
From: Rob McEwen 

The bottom line is that there is no trend of recently 
observed sea level rising data that is even close to 
being on track to hit all these dire predictions 
within the foreseeable future

And, again, there were articles like this 10, 15, and 
even 20 years ago that made very similar predictions 
- that didn't happen. 
--


Maybe the dire predictions didn't happen, but when 
combined with other drivers stuff happens.  For 
example:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/10/headlines-exaggerated-climate-link-to-sinking-of-pacific-islands

"The study blamed the loss on a combination of sea-level 
rise and high wave energy."

"The major misunderstanding stems from the conflation 
of sea-level rise with climate change."

"...the ocean has been rising in the Solomon Islands at 
7mm per year, more than double the global average."

"...driven partly by global warming and partly by 
climatic cycles - in particular the Pacific Decadal 
Oscillation."


So for us, it's an it depends thing.  It depends what 
cables and where they're located.

scott

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Nick Hilliard]

Matt Harris wrote on 23/07/2018 16:13:

I'm not sure exactly what this means, but in general, I think it's fair to
say that the US has taken a more market-driven approach that includes
working with industry to decrease carbon emissions.  During the same time
frame the EU, China, and other nations and regions that tend towards more
heavy handed top-down regulatory approaches to problems such as this seem
to be having trouble making progress and are in fact still headed in the
wrong direction.


The available data does not support your speculation.


https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE?locations=US-EU-CN


Nick

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Matt Harris]

On Mon, Jul 23, 2018 at 8:25 AM, William Herrin  wrote:
>
>
> Government regulation which results in increased costs.
>
> Climate science is interesting and worthy, but it's still too shaky
> and incomplete to justify trillion dollar decisions.
>
> For anyone who would have us Act Now Before It's Too Late, alarmist is
> the right term.
>
> Regards,
> Bill Herrin
>

The United States has lowered carbon emissions while the EU and China
continue to increase.

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2018-01/documents/2018_complete_
report.pdf

https://rhg.com/research/taking-stock-2018/

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/european-
renewables-are-up-so-are-carbon-emissions#gs.=_L422U


I'm not sure exactly what this means, but in general, I think it's fair to
say that the US has taken a more market-driven approach that includes
working with industry to decrease carbon emissions.  During the same time
frame the EU, China, and other nations and regions that tend towards more
heavy handed top-down regulatory approaches to problems such as this seem
to be having trouble making progress and are in fact still headed in the
wrong direction.

Draw your own conclusions from that.  ;)

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Marshall Eubanks]

On Sun, Jul 22, 2018 at 9:01 PM, Sean Donelan  wrote:

>
> https://www.popsci.com/sea-level-rise-internet-infrastructure
>
> Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet, sooner than you
> think
>
>
The sea level is certainly rising, but post-glacial rebound is also bending
the entire East Coast of the United States, which means that parts of the
East Coast are sinking into rising oceans.

https://www.eenews.net/stories/1059972339
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/glacial-rebound-the-not-so-solid-earth

Unfortunately, that includes the New York city area in the downwards zone.
Note that most of the intrinsic sea level change is due to the thermal
expansion of upper ocean layers, and that can vary regionally, and
this regional variation appears to be driving some of what we see.

The sea level in Southern Florida is persistently rising even though it's
not entirely clear why (if I had to bet, I'd bet on post-glacial rebound).

https://www.fsbpa.com/documents/Florida%20Sea%20Level_rev04042008.pdf

Florida sits on very water permeable rock and I would thus worry the most
about the Internet infrastructure in Southern Florida, but I suspect anyone
there already knows about this.

http://www.businessinsider.com/miami-floods-sea-level-rise-solutions-2018-4

Regards
Marshall Eubanks



> [...]
> Despite its magnitude, this network is increasingly vulnerable to sea
> levels inching their way higher, according to research presented at an
> academic conference in Montreal this week. The findings estimate that
> within 15 years, thousands of miles of what should be land-bound cables in
> the United States will be submerged underwater.
>
> “Most of the climate change-related impacts are going to happen very
> soon,” says Paul Barford, a computer scientist at the University of
> Wisconsin and lead author of the paper.
> [...]
>

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[William Herrin]

On Mon, Jul 23, 2018 at 3:55 AM, Saku Ytti  wrote:
> On Mon, 23 Jul 2018 at 05:55, Rob McEwen  wrote:
>> Meanwhile, global warming
>> alarmists have ALREADY made MANY dire predictions about oceans levels
>> rising - that ALREADY didn't even come close to true.
>
> Now this discussion does not belong to NANOG, but 'global warming
> alarmist' is worrying term to me. What is the perceived harm you're
> trying to reduce?

Government regulation which results in increased costs.

Climate science is interesting and worthy, but it's still too shaky
and incomplete to justify trillion dollar decisions.

For anyone who would have us Act Now Before It's Too Late, alarmist is
the right term.

Regards,
Bill Herrin



-- 
William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
Dirtside Systems . Web: 

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Rich Kulawiec]

On Mon, Jul 23, 2018 at 10:55:23AM +0300, Saku Ytti wrote:
> This seems very imbalanced bet, but
> bet lot of people with no training in the subject matter, including
> leader of the free world, are willing to take.

I often reflect that it's striking how so many people who have no education
or training in science and who do not read scientific literature (and
in many cases, cannot read scientific literature because they don't
comprehend the mathematics), will -- correctly -- be reluctant to express
opinions on topics such as the Higgs boson, liquid chromatography, or RNA
protocols...while adamantly declaring their opinions on evolution and AGW.

Let me suggest that anyone wishing to avail themselves of an entry-level
education on this topic begin by reading what it currently the go-to
document: the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Fifth
Assessment Report, which may be found here:

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/index.shtml

There are four sections:

- The Physical Science Basis (what's happening)
- Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (what the effects are)
- Mitigation (what we can do about it)
- Synthesis (the big picture)

The first one, The Physical Science Basis, underpins the others.
It's the synthesis of the work of thousands of the world's climate
scientists and the product of exhaustive reviews of the available
research.  It's lengthy (1552 pages in a 375M PDF) it's painstakingly
complete, and it's heavily supported and sourced.  It was created by 209
coordinating and lead authors, plus another 600 contributing authors,
using -- among other things -- 54,677 written review comments from 1,089
expert reviewers and 38 governments.

So this is pretty much the document that you need to read and understand
if you want to know what the world's climatology community thinks is
going on with the planet.  It's here:

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

Once you've read this, read the other three sections.  When you have
finished, let me know, and I'll recommend some other reports, papers,
textbooks, etc.

Of course you (the rhetorical "you") don't have to do any of this.
But don't expect to have a seat at the discussion table unless you've
done the homework: you don't deserve one.

Note also that the IPCC is preparing a special report, to be finalized
in September 2019, focused on the oceans and cryosphere.  This will
be issued well before the next assessment report, due in 2022.

---rsk

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Nick Hilliard]

Rob McEwen wrote on 23/07/2018 11:54:
HINT: We won't. For example, look at the blue line at the end of this 
"scary graph" from a "climage change" site that has your same viewpoint: 
https://insideclimatenews.org/content/average-global-sea-level-rise-1993-2017 
- as scary as that chart looks like at first glance - it shows 
little-to-no *acceleration* - the rate of increase holds steady at 3.5 
mm/year - BUT HERE IS THE INTERESTING PART: even this pro-climate change 
site's own graph shows that the sea levels have failed to rise AT ALL 
over the past couple of years.


Little known fact:  facts become factier when you use capital letters.

Someone said it on the Internet, so it must be true.

Nick

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Rob McEwen]

On 7/23/2018 3:55 AM, Saku Ytti wrote:

On Mon, 23 Jul 2018 at 05:55, Rob McEwen  wrote:

Meanwhile, global warming
alarmists have ALREADY made MANY dire predictions about oceans levels
rising - that ALREADY didn't even come close to true.

Now this discussion does not belong to NANOG


Yes - sad isn't it - that someone else brought this up.


but 'global warming
alarmist' is worrying term to me. What is the perceived harm you're
trying to reduce? Are the acts which try to address the problem the
harm you'd like to see avoided?


Anytime a "big solution" is applied to a "small problem" (or 
non-existent problem), problems arise. At the least, mis-allocation of 
resources  can cause situations where other important issues fail to get 
addressed when the small problem gets an over-allocation of resources. 
(and real peoples' lives get damaged in the process)



Much in same way, compelling majority of scientists (>95%) believe in
human caused global warming


Your ">95%" is MORE junk science. The popular percentage to throw out is 
"97%" - as quoted by Obama  and many others - this came from 2013 paper 
by John Cook - that was so incredibly and dishonestly flawed as to 
basically be unscientific propaganda. (1) many scientists' papers were 
falsely classified and (2) he did a "bait and switch" where he "read 
into" certain papers stuff that wasn't really there.


http://www.populartechnology.net/2013/05/97-study-falsely-classifies-scientists.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2014/jun/06/97-consensus-global-warming

Real science makes "risky predictions" and then is willing to redo the 
hypothesis when those predictions don't happen as predicted. In 
contrast, junk science stubbornly sticks to preconceived biases even 
when the data continually fails to validate the hypothesis (which is 
happening here!). The fact that you're so quick to try your "appeal to 
authority" with that fake ">95%" percentage - and you don't seem to 
understand that a mis-allocation of resources based on junk science is 
NOT a victim-less crime (so to speak - not technically a crime - but 
REAL people ARE damaged by this) - undermines your credibility.


Tell you what, I'll admit that I might be wrong the first time that we 
see a 5+mm per year average of sea level rising over a 5 year period.


HINT: We won't. For example, look at the blue line at the end of this 
"scary graph" from a "climage change" site that has your same viewpoint: 
https://insideclimatenews.org/content/average-global-sea-level-rise-1993-2017 
- as scary as that chart looks like at first glance - it shows 
little-to-no *acceleration* - the rate of increase holds steady at 3.5 
mm/year - BUT HERE IS THE INTERESTING PART: even this pro-climate change 
site's own graph shows that the sea levels have failed to rise AT ALL 
over the past couple of years.


But 15 years from now, we'll see new rounds of NEW dire predictions 
about alarming FUTURE sea level risings that are allegedly just around 
the corner.


--
Rob McEwen

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Mark Tinka]

On 23/Jul/18 09:55, Saku Ytti wrote:

> It's curious phenomena where we are very willing to
> ignore all the data points that disagree with us, and accept the one
> data point that agrees with us, even when admitted to be fabrication.

Some people just always prefer to do the opposite of everyone else,
and/or the obvious. I have many friends like this.

Mark.

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Saku Ytti]

On Mon, 23 Jul 2018 at 05:55, Rob McEwen  wrote:

> Meanwhile, global warming
> alarmists have ALREADY made MANY dire predictions about oceans levels
> rising - that ALREADY didn't even come close to true.

Now this discussion does not belong to NANOG, but 'global warming
alarmist' is worrying term to me. What is the perceived harm you're
trying to reduce? Are the acts which try to address the problem the
harm you'd like to see avoided? This seems very imbalanced bet, but
bet lot of people with no training in the subject matter, including
leader of the free world, are willing to take.

This is like people who have never ever professionally been involved
with Internet keep predicting that Internet is going to break. While
(I'd hope) overwhelming majority of subject matter expert are
confident that there isn't any concrete observable threat.
Much in same way, compelling majority of scientists (>95%) believe in
human caused global warming and even larger percentage in those
scientists who have researched the subject matter. The skepticism is
almost exclusively in people who have no training or research in the
subject matter.  It's curious phenomena where we are very willing to
ignore all the data points that disagree with us, and accept the one
data point that agrees with us, even when admitted to be fabrication.

Some starting points, while of course entirely ineffective for reasons
explained:

http://www.grist.org/article/series/skeptics/
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/start-here/
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/08/24/case-closed-climategate-was-manufactured/--

-- 
  ++ytti

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[valdis . kletnieks]

On Mon, 23 Jul 2018 02:09:23 -0500, Colin Baker said:
> These guys would freak if they popped open a manhole in the spring

It's a lot harder to pump out a manhole if it's now below the water table.


pgpuLFbGi3gUF.pgp
Description: PGP signature

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Scott Weeks]

--- r...@invaluement.com wrote:
From: Rob McEwen 

The bottom line is that there is no trend of recently 
observed sea level rising data that is even close to 
being on track to hit all these dire predictions 
within the foreseeable future

And, again, there were articles like this 10, 15, and 
even 20 years ago that made very similar predictions 
- that didn't happen. 
--


Maybe the dire predictions didn't happen, but when 
combined with other drivers stuff happens.  For 
example:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/10/headlines-exaggerated-climate-link-to-sinking-of-pacific-islands

"The study blamed the loss on a combination of sea-level 
rise and high wave energy."

"The major misunderstanding stems from the conflation 
of sea-level rise with climate change."

"...the ocean has been rising in the Solomon Islands at 
7mm per year, more than double the global average."

"...driven partly by global warming and partly by 
climatic cycles - in particular the Pacific Decadal 
Oscillation."


So for us, it's an it depends thing.  It depends what 
cables and where they're located.

scott

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Rob McEwen]

For the past 100+ years, the sea levels have been rising by about 2-4 mm 
per year. If you go to the following two sites:


https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

You'll see all kinds of scary language about dire predictions about how 
the sea levels are rising and accelerating. And you'll see SCARY charts 
that look like Mt. Everest. But when you dig into the actual data, 
you'll find that there MIGHT have been (at most!) a CUMULATIVE 1mm/year 
acceleration... but even that took about 4 decades to materialize, it 
could be somewhat within the margin of error, and it might be a part of 
the fake data that often drives this debate. Meanwhile, global warming 
alarmists have ALREADY made MANY dire predictions about oceans levels 
rising - that ALREADY didn't even come close to true.


The bottom line is that there is no trend of recently observed sea level 
rising data that is even close to being on track to hit all these dire 
predictions within the foreseeable future. And even as the West has 
reduced (or lessened the acceleration of) CO2 emissions - this has been 
easily made up for by the CO2 emission increases caused by the 
modernization of China and India in recent decades.


And, again, there were articles like this 10, 15, and even 20 years ago 
that made very similar predictions - that didn't happen. So, it is hard 
to believe that the dire predictions in this article could come true in 
15 years.


But I suppose that it might be a good idea to take inventory of the 
absolute lowest altitude cables and make sure that they are not 
vulnerable to the type of flooding that might happen more often after a 
few decades from now after the ocean has further risen about 2 inches? 
But the sky is not falling anytime soon.


Rob McEwen


On 7/22/2018 9:01 PM, Sean Donelan wrote:

https://www.popsci.com/sea-level-rise-internet-infrastructure

Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet, sooner than you 
think


[...]
Despite its magnitude, this network is increasingly vulnerable to sea 
levels inching their way higher, according to research presented at an 
academic conference in Montreal this week. The findings estimate that 
within 15 years, thousands of miles of what should be land-bound 
cables in the United States will be submerged underwater.


“Most of the climate change-related impacts are going to happen very 
soon,” says Paul Barford, a computer scientist at the University of 
Wisconsin and lead author of the paper.

[...]



--
Rob McEwen

Re: Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet

[Colin Baker]

On 2018-07-22 20:01, Sean Donelan wrote:

https://www.popsci.com/sea-level-rise-internet-infrastructure

Rising sea levels are going to mess with the internet, sooner than you 
think


[...]
Despite its magnitude, this network is increasingly vulnerable to sea
levels inching their way higher, according to research presented at an
academic conference in Montreal this week. The findings estimate that
within 15 years, thousands of miles of what should be land-bound
cables in the United States will be submerged underwater.

“Most of the climate change-related impacts are going to happen very
soon,” says Paul Barford, a computer scientist at the University of
Wisconsin and lead author of the paper.
[...]


These guys would freak if they popped open a manhole in the spring

--
"640K ought to be enough for anybody."
-Kurt Cobain