Re: [tips] Future shock
I also would highlight (from Allen) ...how one judges the case... --Mike --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=6568 or send a blank email to leave-6568-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
Re:[tips] Future shock
Putting together three TIPSters responses to Daryl Bem's precognition study, here's a potted guide to how one should approach claimed research findings: 1. Mike Palij: Even if no one can find problems with what Bem reports in his manuscript, the real test is replication of Bem's results by independent researchers. 2. Chris Green: This article has shaken, once again, the tree about psychologists' use of statistical analysis. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/1018886/Bem6.pdf Maxim 2: Always look for informed critical responses to a claim about findings from an experiment or study before drawing any conclusions. (Then look for responses to the responses. How far you take this depends on how important the claimed findings are, or how much time you have on your hands. :-) ) 3. Don Allen: The old maxim Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence has always been a good guide. I would add that Maxim 2 should also apply more generally to how one judges the case made for an author's viewpoint on *any* subject, scientific or otherwise. Allen Esterson Former lecturer, Science Department Southwark College, London allenester...@compuserve.com http://www.esterson.org --- sbl...@ubishops.ca wrote: I can see the future. I see that a respected psychologist with excellent credentials and a position at a quality university will provide strong evidence in favour of precognition. I see that this will be published, not in any old parapsychology rag, but in the holy _Journal of Personality and Social Psychology_. I see that there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth over this one. News report: http://tinyurl.com/Bem-precognition Preprint: http://www.dbem.ws/FeelingFuture.pdf (My thanks to a colleague who pointed me to this). Stephen Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology, Emeritus Bishop's University Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada e-mail: sblack at ubishops.ca - --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=6522 or send a blank email to leave-6522-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
RE: [tips] Future shock
WOW! This person is a writing fool. I wonder how many of the submissions actually get published? Based on the extensive publications I guess quite a few, but I wonder if all of them do. Annette Annette Kujawski Taylor, Ph. D. Professor, Psychological Sciences University of San Diego 5998 Alcala Park San Diego, CA 92110 tay...@sandiego.edumailto:tay...@sandiego.edu From: sbl...@ubishops.ca [sbl...@ubishops.ca] Sent: Monday, November 15, 2010 9:37 PM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: Re: [tips] Future shock On Nov 15, 2010, at 7:24 PM, Annette Taylor tay...@sandiego.edumailto:tay...@sandiego.edu wrote: The link is interesting but gives no source--i.e., is this from a journal that is already published or a prepublication? What journal? Wagenmakers lists it on his webpage as manuscript submitted for publication. See http://www.ejwagenmakers.com/papers.html Stephen Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology, Emeritus Bishop's University Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada e-mail: sblack at ubishops.ca - --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: tay...@sandiego.edumailto:tay...@sandiego.edu. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13534.4204dc3a11678c6b1d0be57cfe0a21b0n=Tl=tipso=6519 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-6519-13534.4204dc3a11678c6b1d0be57cfe0a2...@fsulist.frostburg.edumailto:leave-6519-13534.4204dc3a11678c6b1d0be57cfe0a2...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=6530 or send a blank email to leave-6530-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
RE: [tips] Future shock
Ah. Bem. This is indeed a step up from Psych Bull. (I intend no pun, but like it.) I wonder if they sent it to Ray Hyman for review? I haven't read this carefully, but looking through it at the results suggests small, but reliable effects. Either we don't understand physics, or we don't understand statistical hypothesis testing. I wonder which? m -- Marc Carter, PhD Associate Professor and Chair Department of Psychology College of Arts Sciences Baker University -- -Original Message- From: sbl...@ubishops.ca [mailto:sbl...@ubishops.ca] Sent: Monday, November 15, 2010 12:23 PM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: [tips] Future shock I can see the future. I see that a respected psychologist with excellent credentials and a position at a quality university will provide strong evidence in favour of precognition. I see that this will be published, not in any old parapsychology rag, but in the holy _Journal of Personality and Social Psychology_. I see that there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth over this one. News report: http://tinyurl.com/Bem-precognition Preprint: http://www.dbem.ws/FeelingFuture.pdf (My thanks to a colleague who pointed me to this). Stephen Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology, Emeritus Bishop's University Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada e-mail: sblack at ubishops.ca - The information contained in this e-mail and any attachments thereto (e-mail) is sent by Baker University (BU) and is intended to be confidential and for the use of only the individual or entity named above. The information may be protected by federal and state privacy and disclosures acts or other legal rules. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are notified that retention, dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify Baker University by email reply and immediately and permanently delete this e-mail message and any attachments thereto. Thank you. --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=6486 or send a blank email to leave-6486-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
Re: [tips] Future shock
This article has shaken, once again, the tree about psychologists' use of statistical analysis. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/1018886/Bem6.pdf Chris -- Christopher D. Green Department of Psychology York University Toronto, ON M3J 1P3 Canada 416-736-2100 ex. 66164 chri...@yorku.ca http://www.yorku.ca/christo/ == sbl...@ubishops.ca wrote: I can see the future. I see that a respected psychologist with excellent credentials and a position at a quality university will provide strong evidence in favour of precognition. I see that this will be published, not in any old parapsychology rag, but in the holy _Journal of Personality and Social Psychology_. I see that there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth over this one. News report: http://tinyurl.com/Bem-precognition Preprint: http://www.dbem.ws/FeelingFuture.pdf (My thanks to a colleague who pointed me to this). Stephen Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology, Emeritus Bishop's University Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada e-mail: sblack at ubishops.ca - --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: chri...@yorku.ca. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13132.a868d710aa4ef67a68807ce4fe8bd0dan=Tl=tipso=6483 or send a blank email to leave-6483-13132.a868d710aa4ef67a68807ce4fe8bd...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=6503 or send a blank email to leave-6503-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
Re: [tips] Future shock
Aw. I don't think we should pick on psychologists. Every academic discipline has it's pre-cognitives as I pointed out recently about Joseph S. Nye's (Harvard) TED talk where he assures us about certain aspects of the future. --Mike --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=6505 or send a blank email to leave-6505-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
Re: RE: [tips] Future shock
Hi Marc- I'm not sure about physics, but I'm pretty sure that we understand statistical hypothesis testing. One of the best understood components is that there is ALWAYS a chance of either a Type I or Type II error. The old maxim Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence has always been a good guide. When I read the reports that several other independent labs have successfully replicated Bem's work then I'll start re-evaluating my mental model of the cosmos. -Don. - Original Message - From: Marc Carter marc.car...@bakeru.edu Date: Monday, November 15, 2010 10:39 am Subject: RE: [tips] Future shock To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) tips@fsulist.frostburg.edu Ah. Bem. This is indeed a step up from Psych Bull. (I intend no pun, but like it.) I wonder if they sent it to Ray Hyman for review? I haven't read this carefully, but looking through it at the results suggests small, but reliable effects. Either we don't understand physics, or we don't understand statistical hypothesis testing. I wonder which? m -- Marc Carter, PhD Associate Professor and Chair Department of Psychology College of Arts Sciences Baker University -- -Original Message- From: sbl...@ubishops.ca [mailto:sbl...@ubishops.ca] Sent: Monday, November 15, 2010 12:23 PM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: [tips] Future shock I can see the future. I see that a respected psychologist with excellent credentials and a position at a quality university will provide strong evidence in favour of precognition. I see that this will be published, not in any old parapsychology rag, but in the holy _Journal of Personality and Social Psychology_. I see that there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth over this one. News report: http://tinyurl.com/Bem-precognition Preprint: http://www.dbem.ws/FeelingFuture.pdf (My thanks to a colleague who pointed me to this). Stephen Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology, Emeritus Bishop's University Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada e-mail: sblack at ubishops.ca - The information contained in this e-mail and any attachments thereto (e-mail) is sent by Baker University (BU) and is intended to be confidential and for the use of only the individual or entity named above. The information may be protected by federal and state privacy and disclosures acts or other legal rules. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are notified that retention, dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify Baker University by email reply and immediately and permanently delete this e-mail message and any attachments thereto. Thank you. --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: dap...@shaw.ca. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13157.966b795bc7f3ccb35e3da08aebe98f18n=Tl=tipso=6486or send a blank email to leave-6486-13157.966b795bc7f3ccb35e3da08aebe98...@fsulist.frostburg.edu Don Allen Retired professor Langara College --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=6508 or send a blank email to leave-6508-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
RE: RE: [tips] Future shock
Hi, Don -- Yep: replication is what I want, and not from sympathetic lab assistants At least, that's what I teach my students! m -- Marc Carter, PhD Associate Professor and Chair Department of Psychology College of Arts Sciences Baker University -- From: don allen [mailto:dap...@shaw.ca] Sent: Monday, November 15, 2010 4:30 PM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: Re: RE: [tips] Future shock Hi Marc- I'm not sure about physics, but I'm pretty sure that we understand statistical hypothesis testing. One of the best understood components is that there is ALWAYS a chance of either a Type I or Type II error. The old maxim Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence has always been a good guide. When I read the reports that several other independent labs have successfully replicated Bem's work then I'll start re-evaluating my mental model of the cosmos. -Don. - Original Message - From: Marc Carter marc.car...@bakeru.edu Date: Monday, November 15, 2010 10:39 am Subject: RE: [tips] Future shock To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) tips@fsulist.frostburg.edu Ah. Bem. This is indeed a step up from Psych Bull. (I intend no pun, but like it.) I wonder if they sent it to Ray Hyman for review? I haven't read this carefully, but looking through it at the results suggests small, but reliable effects. Either we don't understand physics, or we don't understand statistical hypothesis testing. I wonder which? m -- Marc Carter, PhD Associate Professor and Chair Department of Psychology College of Arts Sciences Baker University -- -Original Message- From: sbl...@ubishops.ca [mailto:sbl...@ubishops.ca] Sent: Monday, November 15, 2010 12:23 PM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: [tips] Future shock I can see the future. I see that a respected psychologist with excellent credentials and a position at a quality university will provide strong evidence in favour of precognition. I see that this will be published, not in any old parapsychology rag, but in the holy _Journal of Personality and Social Psychology_. I see that there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth over this one. News report: http://tinyurl.com/Bem-precognition Preprint: http://www.dbem.ws/FeelingFuture.pdf (My thanks to a colleague who pointed me to this). Stephen Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology, Emeritus Bishop's University Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada e-mail: sblack at ubishops.ca - The information contained in this e-mail and any attachments thereto (e-mail) is sent by Baker University (BU) and is intended to be confidential and for the use of only the individual or entity named above. The information may be protected by federal and state privacy and disclosures acts or other legal rules. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are notified that retention, dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify Baker University by email reply and immediately and permanently delete this e-mail message and any attachments thereto. Thank you. --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: dap...@shaw.ca. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13157.966b795bc7f3ccb35e3da08aebe98f18n=Tl=tipso=6486or send a blank email to leave-6486-13157.966b795bc7f3ccb35e3da08aebe98...@fsulist.frostburg.edu Don Allen Retired professor Langara College --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: marc.car...@bakeru.edumailto:marc.car...@bakeru.edu. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13029.76c7c563b32ad9d8d09c72a2d17c90e1n=Tl=tipso=6508 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-6508-13029.76c7c563b32ad9d8d09c72a2d17c9...@fsulist.frostburg.edumailto:leave-6508-13029.76c7c563b32ad9d8d09c72a2d17c9...@fsulist.frostburg.edu The information contained in this e-mail and any attachments thereto (e-mail) is sent by Baker University (BU) and is intended to be confidential and for the use of only the individual or entity named above. The information may be protected by federal and state privacy and disclosures acts or other legal rules. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are notified that retention, dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please immediately notify Baker University by email reply and immediately and permanently delete this e-mail message and any attachments thereto. Thank you. --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org
RE: [tips] Future shock
The link is interesting but gives no source--i.e., is this from a journal that is already published or a prepublication? What journal? Annette Annette Kujawski Taylor, Ph. D. Professor, Psychological Sciences University of San Diego 5998 Alcala Park San Diego, CA 92110 tay...@sandiego.edumailto:tay...@sandiego.edu From: Christopher D. Green [chri...@yorku.ca] Sent: Monday, November 15, 2010 1:01 PM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: Re: [tips] Future shock This article has shaken, once again, the tree about psychologists' use of statistical analysis. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/1018886/Bem6.pdf Chris -- Christopher D. Green Department of Psychology York University Toronto, ON M3J 1P3 Canada 416-736-2100 ex. 66164 chri...@yorku.camailto:chri...@yorku.ca http://www.yorku.ca/christo/ == sbl...@ubishops.camailto:sbl...@ubishops.ca wrote: I can see the future. I see that a respected psychologist with excellent credentials and a position at a quality university will provide strong evidence in favour of precognition. I see that this will be published, not in any old parapsychology rag, but in the holy _Journal of Personality and Social Psychology_. I see that there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth over this one. News report: http://tinyurl.com/Bem-precognition Preprint: http://www.dbem.ws/FeelingFuture.pdf (My thanks to a colleague who pointed me to this). Stephen Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology, Emeritus Bishop's University Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada e-mail: sblack at ubishops.ca - --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: chri...@yorku.camailto:chri...@yorku.ca. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13132.a868d710aa4ef67a68807ce4fe8bd0dan=Tl=tipso=6483 or send a blank email to leave-6483-13132.a868d710aa4ef67a68807ce4fe8bd...@fsulist.frostburg.edumailto:leave-6483-13132.a868d710aa4ef67a68807ce4fe8bd...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: tay...@sandiego.edumailto:tay...@sandiego.edu. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13534.4204dc3a11678c6b1d0be57cfe0a21b0n=Tl=tipso=6503 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-6503-13534.4204dc3a11678c6b1d0be57cfe0a2...@fsulist.frostburg.edumailto:leave-6503-13534.4204dc3a11678c6b1d0be57cfe0a2...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=6511 or send a blank email to leave-6511-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
Re: [tips] Future shock
Dunno. I guess you'll have to e-mail Wagenmakers, or decide for yourself whether the arguments make sense. Chris --- Christopher D Green Department of Psychology York University Toronto, ON M6C 1G4 Canada chri...@yorku.ca On Nov 15, 2010, at 7:24 PM, Annette Taylor tay...@sandiego.edu wrote: The link is interesting but gives no source--i.e., is this from a journal that is already published or a prepublication? What journal? Annette Annette Kujawski Taylor, Ph. D. Professor, Psychological Sciences University of San Diego 5998 Alcala Park San Diego, CA 92110 tay...@sandiego.edu From: Christopher D. Green [chri...@yorku.ca] Sent: Monday, November 15, 2010 1:01 PM To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Subject: Re: [tips] Future shock This article has shaken, once again, the tree about psychologists' use of statistical analysis. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/1018886/Bem6.pdf Chris -- Christopher D. Green Department of Psychology York University Toronto, ON M3J 1P3 Canada 416-736-2100 ex. 66164 chri...@yorku.ca http://www.yorku.ca/christo/ == sbl...@ubishops.ca wrote: I can see the future. I see that a respected psychologist with excellent credentials and a position at a quality university will provide strong evidence in favour of precognition. I see that this will be published, not in any old parapsychology rag, but in the holy _Journal of Personality and Social Psychology_. I see that there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth over this one. News report: http://tinyurl.com/Bem-precognition Preprint: http://www.dbem.ws/FeelingFuture.pdf (My thanks to a colleague who pointed me to this). Stephen Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology, Emeritus Bishop's University Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada e-mail: sblack at ubishops.ca - --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: chri...@yorku.ca. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13132.a868d710aa4ef67a68807ce4fe8bd0dan=Tl=tipso=6483 or send a blank email to leave-6483-13132.a868d710aa4ef67a68807ce4fe8bd...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: tay...@sandiego.edu. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13534.4204dc3a11678c6b1d0be57cfe0a21b0n=Tl=tipso=6503 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-6503-13534.4204dc3a11678c6b1d0be57cfe0a2...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: chri...@yorku.ca. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13132.a868d710aa4ef67a68807ce4fe8bd0dan=Tl=tipso=6511 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-6511-13132.a868d710aa4ef67a68807ce4fe8bd...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=6518 or send a blank email to leave-6518-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
