[Vo]:Dawn of a new era: NOT SO FAST
Here is the website of the company founded by Andrea Rossi and others a few years ago. This company funded and owns the technology in question. http://www.lti-global.com/index.php However, apparently there has been some kind of falling-out with Rossi, and as you can see there is no mention of any of this on the website. It seems he is being marginalized. The company has changed focus to so-called clean-coal. Sad. They have no comment about Rossi, who was operating out of a different branch (New Hampshire). They have large DARPA grants, unrelated to the LENR cell, and do not want to compromise those. You may or may not agree, but it is clear to me that this drama in Bologna was hastily staged, not ready for prime-time, and will end up being a disaster for Rossi and LENR in general - when all of the details emerge. First off, he will sell not a single unit in the USA without an NRC license, which is complicated, costly and takes years. As for Europe, where the need for inexpensive energy is greater, who knows? The best thing that could happen, IMHO, is that the Italian military, their Pentagon equivalent, will take over the program and work something out with LTI as to the IP. Jones
Re: [Vo]:Dawn of a new era: NOT SO FAST
What about China, India, Japan and Russia - for the first stage? Peter On Mon, Jan 17, 2011 at 4:55 PM, Jones Beene jone...@pacbell.net wrote: Here is the website of the company founded by Andrea Rossi and others a few years ago. This company funded and owns the technology in question. http://www.lti-global.com/index.php However, apparently there has been some kind of falling-out with Rossi, and as you can see there is no mention of any of this on the website. It seems he is being marginalized. The company has changed focus to so-called “clean-coal”. Sad. They have no comment about Rossi, who was operating out of a different branch (New Hampshire). They have large DARPA grants, unrelated to the LENR cell, and do not want to compromise those. You may or may not agree, but it is clear to me that this drama in Bologna was hastily staged, not ready for prime-time, and will end up being a disaster for Rossi and LENR in general – when all of the details emerge. First off, he will sell not a single unit in the USA without an NRC license, which is complicated, costly and takes years. As for Europe, where the need for inexpensive energy is greater, who knows? The best thing that could happen, IMHO, is that the Italian military, their Pentagon equivalent, will take over the program and work something out with LTI as to the IP. Jones
Re: [Vo]:Dawn of a new era: NOT SO FAST
Jones Beene wrote: However, apparently there has been some kind of falling-out with Rossi, and as you can see there is no mention of any of this on the website. It seems he is being marginalized. I just hope that someone else in the world knows how to make the material, in case something happens to Rossi. You may or may not agree, but it is clear to me that this drama in Bologna was hastily staged, not ready for prime-time, and will end up being a disaster for Rossi and LENR in general -- when all of the details emerge. I do not think it was hasty. They have conducted the test many times since mid-December and before that it was done many times at other locations. Details will emerge within a week. These people have thought carefully about the calorimetry and particle detection. First off, he will sell not a single unit in the USA without an NRC license, which is complicated, costly and takes years. This will not be a problem at first, because of an odd situation. When Melvin Miles was conducting cold fusion experiments in the early 1990s, some people in the Navy tried to shut him down because they said these were nuclear tests and there were safety concerns. I think they were using that as an excuse, and they wanted to close him down because they're opposed to cold fusion. However, he pointed to the New York Times and other sources and to previous statements made by Navy management to the fact that cold fusion does not exist, and he said if it does not exist it cannot be nuclear. So they had to let him continue. In other words, before the NRC licenses Rossi, they would have to first declare this is a nuclear effect. They would be loath to do that for obvious reasons. It would open the floodgates. Everyone would suddenly realize that cold fusion is real. At present, I'm sure the DoE, the NRC and other agencies will it is an experimental error or a scam, so it is none of their business. So I think it will be a number of years before any US government agency does anything to regulate this. Having said that, I agree this is a bad business plan. They should not try to sell practical devices at this stage. Sooner or later they will run into huge problems with Underwriters Laboratory and regulatory agencies. Even if they overcome these problems there is a limit to how how many machines you can manufacture and how much money you can make before the patent expires. I think they should instead try to sell thousands of small scale devices to researchers around the world. Later when manufacturing begins by major corporations they should try to cash in on the patents. I urged Rossi to consider this strategy but he politely rejected it. Rossi was more polite and coherent about his business strategy than most cold fusion researchers. He is a strange fellow in many ways, but I did not get the sense he is trying to scam someone, or hide something that he has no right to hide (such as plagiarized research). As I said before, the name of his web site and other things about him practically cry out Scam!!! yet he himself, in his communications with me, never gave me that impression. (We have only had brief exchanges, plus I have spoken with people who observed his experiments.) It is disconcerting. It is a disconnect. The big picture gives every impression of being a fake, but when you focus in, suddenly the image resolves into what looks like the real McCoy. Naturally, this gives me the willies. I find it hard to understand why a real scammer would be so careless as to make himself look like a scammer in so many ways, with a preposterous web site name and claims so seemingly overblown, they would embarrass the Correas. As a scam, it seems too over-the-top and blatant. I have not encountered a scammer who makes no effort to disguise himself as a legitimate scientist, and who does not at least try to imitate conventional academic discourse. I have talked to many researchers and inventors who seemed much less honest. I do not trust Rossi because I never trust anyone until they have been independently replicated. The tests at U. Bologna do not meet the standard of an independent replication, especially since professors were not allowed to look inside the box! Still, this kind test is more convincing than a claim made by a researcher himself without any verification by others. It is a good first step. I do not follow the work of Mills closely, but I am not aware that he has demonstrated a heat-producing device as impressive as this, or on such a large scale. Needless to say, no other cold fusion researcher has come close. They could not have scaled up this much because the devices cannot be controlled and it would be extremely dangerous to try. A large scale reaction alone does not add to scientific credibility. McKubre's calorimetry is so good that his data is as believable as this, or as any data could be. However, scaling up does
RE: [Vo]:Dawn of a new era: NOT SO FAST
From: Jed Rothwell JB: First off, he will sell not a single unit in the USA without an NRC license, which is complicated, costly and takes years. JR: This will not be a problem at first, because of an odd situation. When Melvin Miles was conducting cold fusion experiments in the early 1990s, some people in the Navy tried to shut him down .. That story is hilarious . a catch-22 situation, if I ever heard one.. But it is not relevant to this situation. Unfortunately for Rossi, there is a huge difference between doing experiments privately, and going commercial to sell a radioactive device, even to other experimenters. Not to mention, the Navy has already changed its stance on LENR in a big way. Jones
Re: [Vo]:Dawn of a new era: NOT SO FAST
Jones, I often disagree with you, but this time I have to say your suspicions ring a chord. Something doesn't smell right here. Please check me on this, because I'm not sure I've got it right. And feel free to yell at me; I realize I'm going kind of far on not much evidence. * The basic work for this process was done by other (clearly legitimate) researchers some years back, but the usual problems with reproducibility etc dogged them. * Rossi, apparently building on that earlier work, has found the Holy Grail: He can produce large quantities of high grade heat on demand with a reproducible process. /Everybody in the field wants this. Heck, almost everybody on Earth who knows anything about energy wants this./ * When answering questions about this, Rossi seems to downplay the truly earthshaking nature of this work, saying it's something that works, doesn't matter how, and he wants to sell heaters. (I _/think/_ I got that right -- from a post of Jed's but I don't have it in front of me right now.) /I have the impression that he never talks about how he's leapfrogged everybody and how fabulous this result is ... is that right? / * I don't see any acknowledgment in Rossi's comments of the serious difficulties which may arise in attempting to go straight to a salable product. /This all sounds so much like what we've seen of perpetual motion machine vendors ... they downplay the earth-shattering theoretical aspects and talk about how they're just going to sell devices./ * Nobody knows the details of the process except Rossi. * Rossi is keeping the secret ingredient secret so nobody can steal his work. Failure to reveal all has interfered with getting a patent. It has also made it impossible for anyone to attempt a replication. /If he says he's going to reveal it at the end of the patent process, that means another two years before he tells anyone what was in the box -- if I understood what I read on Vortex. And until someone has enough information to attempt a replication, there's no solid way to test his claims./ * Rossi, unlike the earlier workers, is apparently not a trained physicist or electrochemist. In fact, from what I've read here, it's not clear what his degree is in, or if he's got one. By all means yell at me if I've got this wrong, but if I've got it right, it's an important point -- outsiders can make breakthroughs, and dishonest outsiders can make breakthroughs too, but darn, it's /rare/. * Rossi has a past which includes possible con-artist work. If this isn't a huge red flag I don't know the meaning of the word red flag. It seems to me there's just one piece missing from the puzzle: Is there a financial incentive for this demo? In short, */are there investors in the background?/* If there are, then there's a financial incentive for Rossi to produce a convincing demo, and in that case I'd say /hold onto your wallet/. Now, Jed has said some interesting things about this: * They should not try to sell practical devices at this stage. Sooner or later they will run into huge problems... If Rossi really has the Grail, then Jed's comment is presumably correct, and this isn't the best approach. But if Rossi is faking it, then a black-box demo is /exactly/ what he needs to do in order to keep investment dollars coming in. * ... I did not get the sense he is trying to scam someone, or hide something ... I have talked to many researchers and inventors who seemed much less honest. Of course. If Rossi's not on the up-and-up, then one thing's sure: He's really good at fooling people. Good con artists may /seem/ totally honest. Honest people are often not as careful to /appear/ honest as dishonest ones! * I do not follow the work of Mills closely, but I am not aware that he has demonstrated a heat-producing device as impressive as this, or on such a large scale. Needless to say, no other cold fusion researcher has come close. Yes, indeed, Rossi hit a home run first crack out of the box. It's as though Edison demonstrated a 1000 watt mercury vapor floodlight as his first lightbulb. Is it too good to be true? * I cannot think of any way this result could be faked. Right -- Rossi's good. But there's a black box in the middle. As far as I know, nobody who watched the Statue of Liberty disappear a few years back caught on to how it was done. In summary, I really, really, really don't like black box demonstrations in an area where everybody is desperate for a solution. On 01/17/2011 09:55 AM, Jones Beene wrote: Here is the website of the company founded by Andrea Rossi and others a few years ago. This
RE: [Vo]:Dawn of a new era: NOT SO FAST
Stephen - There are a few other details in the big picture that are not common knowledge, but should be mentioned. This is not really a breakthrough in one sense, but that all depends on how public you think the demo is/was. After all, it did show up on the internet. Does that make you believe it was really an open demo? Mills (BLP) has already demonstrated almost the same kind of device to his investors and customers only - except that it is five times more robust, if not more. He claims that radioactivity does not result. Mills uses sodium hydride as the catalyst. Otherwise it is almost identical, yet ironically he will never be able to enforce his IP against Rossi. The operative word here is nuclear. That situation with BLP is the main reason it is hard for me to get excited about Rossi's demo. I am told that at least four dozen high-level executives have witnessed the Mills demo and several have signed contracts. I have not personally seen it, but it would not surprise me if a few of them are tuned into vortex, having signed strong NDAs, and unable to comment. Essentially this Italian Job would be too little, too late comparatively, if Rossi had not tried to make it appear to be a public event. In the end, however, it is almost as secretive as what BLP has already pulled off, but it is a lot less robust than the BLP 50 kilowatt demo. Mills, in contrast cannot afford to let the public see his so-called solid fuel reactor since the dirty little secret about the radioactivity cannot be hidden, and this essentially destroys his IP. I label that detail as an outright deception. As you can tell, I am not enamored with the BLP business strategy either. Going direct to grid may not be an ideal strategy from society's perspective, but it is the way Gordon Gekko would proceed, and Mills is on that course. It's too bad that all of this breaks down into being thoroughly tainted by greed/ego driven motivations, since it stifles the chance for others to add incrementally . but hey: that is the guts of our free enterprise system, and now we can see the inevitable result of science being ingested by the MBA/CPA, where the role of the general public is to sense only what comes out the other end. From: Stephen A. Lawrence Jones, I often disagree with you, but this time I have to say your suspicions ring a chord. Something doesn't smell right here. Please check me on this, because I'm not sure I've got it right. And feel free to yell at me; I realize I'm going kind of far on not much evidence. * The basic work for this process was done by other (clearly legitimate) researchers some years back, but the usual problems with reproducibility etc dogged them. * Rossi, apparently building on that earlier work, has found the Holy Grail: He can produce large quantities of high grade heat on demand with a reproducible process. Everybody in the field wants this. Heck, almost everybody on Earth who knows anything about energy wants this. * When answering questions about this, Rossi seems to downplay the truly earthshaking nature of this work, saying it's something that works, doesn't matter how, and he wants to sell heaters. (I think I got that right -- from a post of Jed's but I don't have it in front of me right now.) I have the impression that he never talks about how he's leapfrogged everybody and how fabulous this result is ... is that right? * I don't see any acknowledgment in Rossi's comments of the serious difficulties which may arise in attempting to go straight to a salable product. This all sounds so much like what we've seen of perpetual motion machine vendors ... they downplay the earth-shattering theoretical aspects and talk about how they're just going to sell devices. * Nobody knows the details of the process except Rossi. * Rossi is keeping the secret ingredient secret so nobody can steal his work. Failure to reveal all has interfered with getting a patent. It has also made it impossible for anyone to attempt a replication. If he says he's going to reveal it at the end of the patent process, that means another two years before he tells anyone what was in the box -- if I understood what I read on Vortex. And until someone has enough information to attempt a replication, there's no solid way to test his claims. * Rossi, unlike the earlier workers, is apparently not a trained physicist or electrochemist. In fact, from what I've read here, it's not clear what his degree is in, or if he's got one. By all means yell at me if I've got this wrong, but if I've got it right, it's an important point -- outsiders can make breakthroughs, and dishonest outsiders can make breakthroughs too, but darn, it's rare. * Rossi has a past which includes possible con-artist work. If this isn't a huge red flag I don't know the meaning of the word red flag. It seems to me there's just one piece missing from the puzzle: Is there a
Re: [Vo]:Dawn of a new era: NOT SO FAST
On 01/17/2011 12:52 PM, Jones Beene wrote: Stephen - There are a few other details in the big picture that are not common knowledge, but should be mentioned. This is not really a breakthrough in one sense, but that all depends on how public you think the demo is/was. After all, it did show up on the internet. Does that make you believe it was really an open demo? That's a semantic question, and it depends on what you mean by open. But in any case a demo (of any sort) by a single researcher proves nothing, unless you are convinced of that researcher's honesty. 10 kW output is too large to be an error. Either it's real or it's faked. If Ed Storms demonstrated a 10 kW reactor, it would be Game Over and Our Side Won, because I'm sure he would never fake anything. If David Copperfield demonstrated a 10 kW reactor I would be convinced it was a fake, and I'd be extremely amused that I couldn't see how he'd done it.
Re: [Vo]:Dawn of a new era: NOT SO FAST
In reply to Jones Beene's message of Mon, 17 Jan 2011 06:55:36 -0800: Hi, [snip] First off, he will sell not a single unit in the USA without an NRC license, which is complicated, costly and takes years. [snip] BTW note that were it not for the Cu then the whole shebang would be quite consistent with pure Hydrino creation, and no (or few) nuclear reactions. That would certainly explain the apparent lack of ionizing radiation, and also the thermal output. It might however mean that they would need to pay a royalty to Mills. ;) I'm also missing the Ni-59 which should be the primary product of the fusion reaction they propose. In the Focardi-Rossi paper, they suggest a whole chain of fusion reactions which eventually converts the Ni isotopes into Cu-63, however they fail to mention that the Cu-59 initially created (which soon decays to Ni-59) would be in such small amounts that it would be lost amongst the ever present Ni, and have almost no chance of reacting until the device were quite old and a fair percentage of the original Ni had reacted. IOW there should be trace amounts of Ni-59, in the after material that they had tested, and they should have made a big deal of this because Ni-59 doesn't occur in nature, so it would have been indisputable proof of a nuclear reaction. However it could also be confused with Co-59 (stable) which might have been present as a contaminant. What's really needed is a clear before and after assessment, to allow comparison. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
Re: [Vo]:Dawn of a new era: NOT SO FAST
In reply to Jones Beene's message of Mon, 17 Jan 2011 09:52:35 -0800: Hi, [snip] Essentially this Italian Job would be too little, too late comparatively, if Rossi had not tried to make it appear to be a public event. In the end, however, it is almost as secretive as what BLP has already pulled off, but it is a lot less robust than the BLP 50 kilowatt demo. [snip] The huge difference between the two is that the COP of the BLP demo was not much larger than 1, and it was a one shot, whereas Rossi says he can run continuously with a COP 8. In that regard Rossi would appear to have the upper hand where heat generation is concerned. That may change if Mills can demonstrate a working CIHT, of if Rossi turns out to be a fraud. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
