RE: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
From Alexander: yes, like 20 years ago when they were just as intricate, and we all had gps and autocad What??? Not true. Not according to what I've seen and read. Crop circles have only become more intricate within the last decade or so. Twenty years ago and prior crop circles were pretty much just that: circles. Perhaps on a more fundamental level we have failed to comprehend the fact that it's not so important trying to determine WHO is responsible for making of most of these circles. A more salient question might actually turn out to be comprehending WHO is currently looking at them... WHO is trying to comprehend what their meaning might be. Regards Steven Vincent Johnson www.OrionWorks.com www.zazzle.com/orionowrks
RE: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
Good point Steven. In fact, the incremental increase in complexity of crop circles over time seems to roughly correspond to the increase in inexpensive computer power and GPS etc. which is available to students. Equally surprising and far more ironic is that the increase in inexpensive computer power may itself be in some part a result of an alien intelligence having already infected the human minds which were responsible for those rapid advances. To reconcile this alternative viewpoint: I think the main thing that almost everyone misses is that alien intelligence can and has already arrived in a NON-physical way. There is a middle ground in the UFO argument, and a suspicion that a superior form of intellect is here and yet at the same time that there has never was a real spacecraft responsible for getting it here. (real in the sense of being manufactured from physical elements and travelling through three dimensional time). IOW, an intelligent entity can easily be present and active without physical means of transport, and in fact ask yourself this: why would they or it (when ET acts as an entity) chose a far more costly and less effective way to visit? Yes, it may be expedient to the goals of ET to infect the minds of susceptible humans - in order for those humans to convey to other humans the truth... even of an alien existence, but usually another more important truth - but truth itself still remains a fluid mental construct, or in the case of crop circles - a hint of the other. BTW - It has been long realized, going back to antiquity, that these aliens like to play the trickster at times. But also - for thousands of years the susceptible humans, the contactees as it were, have been treated with more respect, and were once called prophets or savants ... but nowadays they get thoroughly Dangerfielded. In fact, in a few hundred years, if we can avoid self-destruction (with 'their' help) then this route is probably the way that we will chose to spread our contribution to this migratory process of meme transfer though space and time and outward - well beyond our own physical horizons ... ... kinda like the folding time metaphor, if your are into Sci-Fi but with the twist that they always become us. Jones -Original Message- From: Steven Vincent Johnson From Alexander: yes, like 20 years ago when they were just as intricate, and we all had gps and autocad What??? Not true. Not according to what I've seen and read. Crop circles have only become more intricate within the last decade or so. Twenty years ago and prior crop circles were pretty much just that: circles. Perhaps on a more fundamental level we have failed to comprehend the fact that it's not so important trying to determine WHO is responsible for making of most of these circles. A more salient question might actually turn out to be comprehending WHO is currently looking at them... WHO is trying to comprehend what their meaning might be. Regards Steven Vincent Johnson www.OrionWorks.com www.zazzle.com/orionowrks
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
I think both Jed and Jones have expressed important concepts often glossed over by many. There is Jed's down-to-earth commentary regarding the fact that all too often we have an arrogant tendency to dismiss just how incredibly smart and perceive our own ancient indigenous population had been in solving complex environmental problems. There remain remnants of technology that even today we have not yet completely mastered. And then, there's Jone's intriguing commentary that we tend to get caught up on the rather clunky premise that ETs (if they DO exist) must arrive in physical form in order for the contact to be considered legitimate. Jones speculates there may be far more viable approaches than an overwhelming need to pilot a craft vast distances to our neck of the woods just to put a bug in our brains - like the one inserted a long ago to pick up a bone and split the fat pig's skull. One could say that that revelation eventually went viral! Oops! Jone's latest commentary touches on one of my previous multi-post diatribes concerning the speculative premise that the classic modern abduction phenomenon touches vast psychological territories of the human psyche in ways where a simple physical face-to-face encounter could pale in power and/or impact. It is true that in contemporary western civilization terms most abductees, (Experiences, as some of them like to call themselves) are generally considered a little odd. Some, in fact, are considered outright outcasts. No matter... What they have experienced, what they nevertheless endeavor to tell everyone who are willing to listen will continue to propagate within our society, just as such contamination has probably always done so from the beginning of history. I think in the not too distant future the experiencer phenomenon will not be so harshly ridiculed, nor summarily dismissed, particularly by those who might feel it is an imperative that they remain the primary silverbacks within their respective tribe. As far as who the aliens really are, metaphorically speaking a classic archetype experience many experiencers pass-through is a terrifying encounter where they perceive an intimate face-to-face close-up with an alien being. At which point many describe a sense of their self beginning to melt away, as if to be replaced with a sense of oneness with the creature staring back at them. Based on the psychological predilections of the experience at the time of the encounter, such transference can occasionally be perceived as both terrifying and destructive. Some feel as if their soul is being destroyed, possessed, or replaced, ergo the religious oriented demon encounter. Fortunately, there are smarter better balanced earthlings who have the courage and psychic fortitude to see past the initial terror, the initial primal sense of self-annihilation, where they begin to comprehend all the layers of personality we have wrapped our egos within. It would seem that many of such encounters are nothing more than a simple suggestion that we might want to consider stepping outside of the very limiting boundaries we have immersed our sense of self within. The suggestion seems to be that however terrifying it might feel to step outside the comfortable boundaries for which many of us have defined our soul as consisting of, in the longer run the rewards might be worth it. At which point, the current distinctions pertaining to who we are and who the aliens are becomes increasingly irrelevant. Regards Steven Vincent Johnson www.OrionWorks.com www.zazzle.com/orionworks
RE: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
Robin sez: So, based on this, I conclude that the galaxy is not filled with millions of intelligent species in civilizations that have lasted for hundreds of thousands or millions of years, and achieved much greater wealth and stability than we have. Or if there are such civilizations, the psychology of the species is not similar to ours. [snip] There is at least one alien species bending over backwards to contact us, and we are just as vigorously sticking our collective heads in the sand. I am referring to crop circles. And here we go, back to the races between with it is so and it isn't so argument. Alas, it would seem we earthlings have only our steel-trap logic to fall back on to settle this never ending conundrum. IMHO, we don't do a very good job of exercising logic. Over the decades I have found it extraordinarily hilarious that many attempts to execute textbook logic on the ufo conundrum have never been able to give me an adequate explanation for the following painting for which I was commissioned to do - based on what someone saw, something he couldn't explain. The sighting was back in the 1980s. http://orionworks.com/artgal/svj/MayEncounters_m.htm Keep in mind the object was estimated to be approximately 90 feet in length. Was silent. And was hovering in a manner that discounted anything having to do with the aerodynamic laws of physics. But to assume sightings like this could actually be happening all over would place many of our most cherished paradigms in a tizzy. What??? They are already here??? ...and how long have they been here??? How rude of them! Please step back several million miles away from our planet so that we can sniff you from a safe distance by our antennae. When properly executed our flawless logic is more than capable of ignoring countless similar reports, reports by police, and airline pilots. I'm always amazed at how such reports are summarily ignored and/or discounted as unreliable or misidentified by many authorities who honestly and sincerely believe they are using the human gift of logic to explain it all away - and, of course, by doing so conveniently avoiding the mess of grappling with certain emotionally charged ramifications. Hey! What's the use of logic if you can't use it to box in an inconvenience. IMO, Star Trek, the next generation, TV episode First Contact (Not the movie!) did a marvelous job of expressing the ramifications. But of course, it was just a harmless fantasy story. Right... To view the actual episode watch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLxNA8XysYk Regards Steven Vincent Johnson www.OrionWorks.com www.zazzle.com/orionworks
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
Kyle Mcallister wrote: If it was an interstellar communication and it happened to impinge on earth . . . If it was deliberate, yes. If not, if it was something else, or a spurious transmission for reasons unknown, it might not remain on us for long. The beam width would be a factor, motion of the beam emitter (rotation of the planet surface, etc.), and so on. If it was interstellar the rotation of the alien planet surface would have to be counter-acted. It would have to remain pointed at the target star. Stars do not move so if it impinged on our sun it would stay that way. I do not know about earth's rotation. I do not know what kind of dish intercepted the WOW signal. Was it a fixed dish, or steerable? Perhaps it was a short message, but I doubt that. Anyone conducting interstellar communication would either have a lot to say (all the local news and history) or nothing to say. If it was interplanetary within the alien solar system it might swivel past us very quickly. Think of the transmissions we send to robot probes on Mars. - Jed
RE: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
-Original Message- From: mix...@bigpond.com There is at least one alien species bending over backwards to contact us, and we are just as vigorously sticking our collective heads in the sand. I am referring to crop circles. You can't be serious, Robin After all, isn't it obvious why we are sticking out collective heads in the sand? These are cereal killers, for goodness sake! Avoid them at your peril! Jones
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
Jones sez: From: mix...@bigpond.com There is at least one alien species bending over backwards to contact us, and we are just as vigorously sticking our collective heads in the sand. I am referring to crop circles. You can't be serious, Robin After all, isn't it obvious why we are sticking out collective heads in the sand? These are cereal killers, for goodness sake! Avoid them at your peril! Jones :-) speaking of crop circles... http://www.bermanpost.com/2009/08/say-no-to-obama-crop-circle.html Move along... Move along... Nothing to see here... No intelligence to speak of on this planet. Regards Steven Vincent Johnson www.OrionWorks.com www.zazzle.com/orionworks
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
mix...@bigpond.com wrote: There is at least one alien species bending over backwards to contact us, and we are just as vigorously sticking our collective heads in the sand. I am referring to crop circles. Assuming aliens create crop circles . . . the circles do not look like an attempt to communicate with us, but rather an attempt to mystify us. Or amuse us. They resemble art, or graffiti. There is no other intelligent life in the solar system, so if they are here, they are capable of crossing interstellar space. They must be far advanced. No matter how alien their psychology may be, if they want to communicate with us, surely they can figure out a direct, surefire method of doing that! Radio, skywriting, a personal visit, a note on the front door . . . I suppose it is possible these aliens are not intelligent in the normal sense. That is, not sentient. Perhaps they are like a swarm of bees in a beehive, acting on instinct. It is hard to imagine how such creatures could create advanced technology but it is not unthinkable. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
In reply to Jones Beene's message of Wed, 21 Jul 2010 07:45:26 -0700: Hi, [snip] You can't be serious, Robin After all, isn't it obvious why we are sticking out collective heads in the sand? These are cereal killers, for goodness sake! ROFL. Avoid them at your peril! ...or contact them at your peril? It's obvious to me that the more complex crop circles that just appear in a single evening can't possibly have been created with common technology. There may be advanced black ops technology that is capable of it, and perhaps a few techo's with a satellite at their beck and call are having a laugh at our expense, but I doubt it. Occam seems to indicate in this case that an extra terrestrial explanation is the most likely. Picture yourself sending a probe to an alien world, and discovering that their level of technological development is not far behind your own. You have FTL communications, but they do not. You have no common language. How do you communicate with them in a way that is obvious to all, guaranteed to get attention, and unstoppable? You draw pictures, possibly attempting to teach them enough physics, so that they can build FTL communications. The poor saps apparently don't realize how narrow minded and vicious we are. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
In reply to Jed Rothwell's message of Wed, 21 Jul 2010 14:35:14 -0400: Hi, [snip] Assuming aliens create crop circles . . . the circles do not look like an attempt to communicate with us, but rather an attempt to mystify us. Or amuse us. They resemble art, or graffiti. They are rife with mathematical correlations. Mathematics is the only language that all sentient creatures in the universe have in common. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
In reply to Steven Vincent Johnson's message of Wed, 21 Jul 2010 08:40:00 -0500: Hi, [snip] When properly executed our flawless logic is more than capable of ignoring countless similar reports, reports by police, and airline pilots. I'm always amazed at how such reports are summarily ignored and/or discounted as unreliable or misidentified by many authorities who honestly and sincerely believe they are using the human gift of logic to explain it all away - and, of course, by doing so conveniently avoiding the mess of grappling with certain emotionally charged ramifications. Hey! What's the use of logic if you can't use it to box in an inconvenience. [snip] It is now already common knowledge that this attitude has been fostered through a deliberate debunking and disinformation campaign executed by the US government over many decades. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
Robin wrote: It's obvious to me that the more complex crop circles that just appear in a single evening can't possibly have been created with common technology. There may be advanced black ops technology that is capable of it . . . I do not know much about this, but I would be cautious about making that assertion. Has anyone made a video of a crop circle forming? Do we have any evidence at all about the nature of the technology that forms them? I think it is likely that people make them. As far as I know, no one has watched the circles form and confirmed that people were not there. Crop circles have been around since the mid 18th century according to Chris Tinsley. Many experts say they cannot imagine how people could make them, for various reasons such as the fact that the grass is not broken and so on. On the face of it, you may think it is unlikely that people 250 years ago mastered techniques that baffle today's experts. Study anthropology and you will find countless examples of ancient and primitive technology and technique that modern people do not understand. I have seen many pre-modern Japanese objects that no expert in high technology could make. Modern metallurgists are only now relearning the secrets of Damascus swords. And here is a sad but inspiring example. On July 12, Mau Piailug of Micronesia died at age 78. He was the last person who both understood ancient Polynesian navigation and who could actually do it. I used to know professors at Cornell who understood the principles, and who spent time in the Pacific, but they could not actually navigate. In 1976, Piailug steered a traditional sailing canoe 3,000 miles from Hawaii to Tahiti, using only the ancient techniques, such as the star catalog memorized as epic poetry. Illiterate, per-modern people were able memorize an entire star catalog in a epic poem, and also by making astoundingly accurate and deeply knowledgeable observations of weather and especially waves, which informed them of the presence of land hundreds of kilometers away. They could reliably navigate a trackless ocean covering 1/3rd of the earth's surface. That is astounding! No modern engineer or scientist would have thought of doing these things, or even imagined they could be done. See: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/20/AR2010072002941.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/20/AR2010072002941.html Any time in the last 100,000 years, you could have found people who knew more about some subjects than our best experts today, and who had skills unexcelled. There are isolated people today who have skills no one can dream of. It would not be surprising if there were a cult of some sort in Europe which has mastered the art of crop circles and can do things no expert could fathom. Why they do this I cannot guess, but people often do things that seem mysterious, inexplicable or pointless. You should never underestimate human ingenuity, or how strange people can be. - Jed
RE: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
Robin wrote: It's obvious to me that the more complex crop circles that just appear in a single evening can't possibly have been created with common technology. There may be advanced black ops technology that is capable of it . . . Jed Wrote: I do not know much about this, but I would be cautious about making that assertion. Has anyone made a video of a crop circle forming. Yup. There was a PBS special, and quite a number of YouTube videos that demonstrate how the locals and/or the ETs do it, like: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6M6vP8-SbU0 For 99 out of 100 of them, you can find a dozen or so engineering undergrads, who design an elaborate and deeply meaningful symbol using AutoCAD and astronomy charts, then construct it in only a few hours using satellite navigation signals and iPhones (and a few six packs), and the pièce de résistance is to spread around radioactive ore so that it will set off Geiger counters. The most telling detail for most of this activity (~99 out of 100) is probably that - year after year, crop circle season coincides precisely with the end of the school year and the beginning of summer vacation. But lest we get too pedantically logical, there is that lingering (~1 out of 100) which were not all that sure about and dont forget that summer vacation this is also the best time for ETs to visit since every bit of mischief that they might chose to get into can easily be blamed on those same students who made the other 99 :-) Plus they like our produce on K-PAX so why come early? Jones
RE: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
Jed sez: Has anyone made a video of a crop circle forming? Yes, allegedly. Such authenticity is challenged. Personally, I suspect the majority are most likely of prosaic origin. However, that doesn't necessarily mean they all are. Roughage! Regards, Steven Vincent Johnson www.OrionWorks.com www.zazzle.com/orionworks
RE: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
Jones sez: ... Plus they like our produce on K-PAX so why come early? Yup. Apple cores, banana skins and all! Roughage! ;-) Regards, Steven Vincent Johnson www.OrionWorks.com www.zazzle.com/orionworks
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
yes, like 20 years ago when they were just as intricate, and we all had gps and autocad On Wed, Jul 21, 2010 at 4:45 PM, Jones Beene jone...@pacbell.net wrote: Robin wrote: It's obvious to me that the more complex crop circles that just appear in a single evening can't possibly have been created with common technology. There may be advanced black ops technology that is capable of it . . . Jed Wrote: I do not know much about this, but I would be cautious about making that assertion. Has anyone made a video of a crop circle forming. Yup. There was a PBS special, and quite a number of YouTube videos that demonstrate how the locals and/or the ETs do it, like: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6M6vP8-SbU0 For 99 out of 100 of them, you can find a dozen or so engineering undergrads, who design an elaborate and “deeply meaningful” symbol using AutoCAD and astronomy charts, then construct it in only a few hours using satellite navigation signals and iPhones (and a few six packs), and the pièce de résistance is to spread around radioactive ore – so that it will set off Geiger counters. The most telling detail for most of this activity (~99 out of 100) is probably that - year after year, crop circle “season” coincides precisely with the end of the school year and the beginning of summer vacation. But … lest we get too pedantically logical, there is that lingering (~1 out of 100) which we’re not all that sure about – and don’t forget that summer vacation this is also the best time for ETs to ‘visit’ since every bit of mischief that they might chose to get into can easily be blamed on those same students who made the other 99 J Plus they like our produce on K-PAX so why come early? Jones
RE: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
Jed sez: Assuming aliens create crop circles . . . the circles do not look like an attempt to communicate with us, but rather an attempt to mystify us. Or amuse us. They resemble art, or graffiti. There is no other intelligent life in the solar system, so if they are here, they are capable of crossing interstellar space. They must be far advanced. No matter how alien their psychology may be, if they want to communicate with us, surely they can figure out a direct, surefire method of doing that! Radio, skywriting, a personal visit, a note on the front door . . . I suppose it is possible these aliens are not intelligent in the normal sense. That is, not sentient. Perhaps they are like a swarm of bees in a beehive, acting on instinct. It is hard to imagine how such creatures could create advanced technology but it is not unthinkable. It's a slow news day, so idle minds (like mine!) can run rampant with speculative fodder. Regarding the thrust of Jed's commentary, again, I suggest we do not forget the suggestion of avoiding direct eye contact when conducting investigations out in the field. It's considered a threat. Gary Larsen has a wonderful cartoon that depicts the aftermath of when a dubious researcher mistakenly decided it was time to try out a handshake buzzer on his next encounter with a band of gentle gorillas. Alas, copyright restrictions prevent me from showing the aftermath. Speaking of alien encounters, it is logical for most of us to logically assume aliens must be, well... totally alien, both in physical appearance as well as in intelligence. Perhaps this is so, but then perhaps not. Please humor me for what I hope some Vortex readers might conclude is an enchanting tale. Do not touch the controls on your TV! Off the Wall Commentary Just a week ago I decided read another UFO abduction account from an obscure book that had been collecting dust on one of my book shelves for decades. I'm glad I finally took it off the shelf to digest its contents. The tale allegedly occurred in the southern part of Brazil back in the late 1950s. Foreign accounts of this nature do not tend to be advertised within the US particularly because (1) we don't take the subject of CE4K (close encounters of the fourth kind) seriously, and (2) accounts originating from presumably backward countries like Brazil were considered of little value. But I digress. I have to say it was an unexpectedly fun read, as far as alleged UFO encounter/abductions go. The Portuguese to English translation was stilted, but I endured. The entire abduction scenario took about 10 days - earth days, that is. The abductors were humanoids. Genetically speaking, they were remarkably similar to us. Incidentally, I should add that the Brazilian abductee who had been temporarily spirited back to the home planet of these space travelers was abducted illegally according to the extraterrestrial civilization's laws. Apparently, an interplanetary expedition was checking out our plant agricultural fauna. The survey captain mistakenly speculated that a nearby earthling, who had the misfortune of curiously skulking nearby when the craft landed, might actually be a farmer. They speculated he might be an agricultural expert who could give them advice on the various plants they were collecting. Turns out our Brazilian abductee wasn't a farmer at all. But later, back on the home world, this survey captain was summarily demoted for abducting the earthling against his will... He was transferred to a lesser profession of shuttling cargo between the home world and some remotely located steel mines. But getting back to the star of this story, after our abductee arrived on the home world it was quickly determined that he should be sent back. However, before sending him back a few of the bigwigs decided that they might as well offer poor guy a few days of hospitality to make up for the inconvenience of having been taken against his will, and also just to show him that they weren't all that bad. They weren't particularly worried about the abductee spilling the beans and blabbing to his Earth brothers about what he saw - which is exactly what he did when he was returned. They knew no one would believe him. And few did. Our abductee soon discovered a fascinating fact that the global civilization on this planet had taken advantage of a mysterious abundant source of free/clean energy called Solar Energy. The phrase or terminology this abductee continuously used in the telling of this story was Solar Energy. Keep in mind that this abductee only had a second grade education. The late 1950s was still decades before any of us had an inkling about global energy concerns. The abductee noticed that all technology on the planet (both large and small, immobile or mobile) had been individually fitted with its own solar energy power modules. He noticed that the need for a global electrical grid was completely
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
In reply to Jones Beene's message of Wed, 21 Jul 2010 16:45:01 -0700: Hi, [snip] But lest we get too pedantically logical, there is that lingering (~1 out of 100) which were not all that sure about and dont forget that summer vacation this is also the best time for ETs to visit since every bit of mischief that they might chose to get into can easily be blamed on those same students who made the other 99 :-) Summer is when there are crops to draw in. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
On Mon, Jul 19, 2010 at 9:27 PM, Kyle Mcallister kyle_mcallis...@yahoo.com wrote: There have been hundreds of these, the most famous being the '77 WOW signal that the Big Ear picked up. I'm sure we all know that high gain antennas obtain their gain by narrowing the beamwidth of the signal. These very narrow beams, some less then 1 degree, cover a very small area of space. Add to that the earth is moving on it's axis. It is also revolving about the sun. And the whole solar system is moving relative to the galaxy. If you consider that the source of the WOW signal might be the same type of narrow beam, fixed antenna. And the planet source is in the same motion as the earth. It's no surprise that you might get a brief burst of intelligence but never see it again due to the motion of the spheres. T
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
Terry Blanton wrote: If you consider that the source of the WOW signal might be the same type of narrow beam, fixed antenna. And the planet source is in the same motion as the earth. It's no surprise that you might get a brief burst of intelligence but never see it again due to the motion of the spheres. I assume you are suggesting it was an interplanetary signal. I do not see what use a sharply focused focused off-planet signal would serve in a planetary communication system. Or could it be an uplink to a satellite? I do not think they are that focused or strong. If it was an interstellar communication and it happened to impinge on earth, it would have stayed pointed in our direction for a long time. Ditto for a deliberate signal to attract our attention and announce the existence of another intelligent species. Thinking about this SETI issue some more . . . (not CETI!) . . . I assume we are only talking about signals within our galaxy. The Milky Way galaxy is about 100,000 ly accross and 1,000 ly thick, with 200 to 300 billion stars (depending on the source). Based on the failure of SETI so far, I think it is safe to conclude that in our galaxy there are not millions of contemporaneous civilizations vying for our attention. That is to say: 1. Contemporaneous means existing long enough to reach us; a signal broadcast for thousands of years, within the last 100,000 years. That is really not such a long time. I assume that stable, intelligent civilizations usually last longer than that. Stable non-intelligent species do. 2. By vying for attention I mean a signal announcing their existence, in a simple format that any radio-telescope is likely to detect and recognize as artificial. I do not mean a complex communication that we happen to overhear, which might be too compressed and low-powered to recognize as a signal. We could send this kind of hello galaxy! signal even now, only 100 years after discovering radio. Naturally it would cost a great deal of money and it is not likely we would do it. But I assume that a civilization that discovered radio centuries or thousands of years ago would be so advanced, the cost of setting up a broadcast would trivial. It might be something a small group of private individuals could afford. To be effective you would want to send out multiple beams from deep space, repeated for thousands of years, from an antenna orbiting the star or on the surface of an airless planet, rather than from the home planet where the species evolved. Even something as elaborate as this will eventually cost a trivial amount. It seems to me that an intelligent species would be motivated to do this as a favor to alien astronomers and biologists. To help your distant intellectual colleagues. Or just as a quixotic stunt, if you will. If I could do something like this for, let us say, $20,000, I wouldn't hesitate. It seems to me that sooner or later in the next few thousand years, a person or group of people is bound to do this. So, based on this, I conclude that the galaxy is not filled with millions of intelligent species in civilizations that have lasted for hundreds of thousands or millions of years, and achieved much greater wealth and stability than we have. Or if there are such civilizations, the psychology of the species is not similar to ours. Not similar to mine, anyway, such that they would spend $20,000 just give a thrill to some alien biologist a thousand light years away, essentially just for the heck of it. That is a nebulous conclusion, but I think it is meaningful and I think it is well founded. The galaxy is definitely not filled with millions of advanced civilizations that I can relate to. That's a sad thought. I do not know what this does to the Drake equation. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
I wrote: To be effective you would want to send out multiple beams from deep space, repeated for thousands of years, from an antenna orbiting the star or on the surface of an airless planet . . . Even something as elaborate as this will eventually cost a trivial amount. It seems to me that an intelligent species would be motivated to do this as a favor to alien astronomers and biologists. To help your distant intellectual colleagues. Bear in mind also that if there were, say, ~1 million civilizations doing this, many of them would have found one-another long ago. This would motivate them to redouble their efforts to find other alien civilizations, and take a census of the galaxy. Some would be within ~100 ly of one another, which in a sense is close enough for real-time communication. I mean they would not forget about one-another, and even if the species were as short-lived as we are, groups of experts would find it worthwhile to compose and transmit messages although they would not live to read the responses. People have conducted architectural and scientific projects that take centuries, such as building cathedrals. I assume these civilizations would eventually exchange huge amounts of information, including language. They might set up cooperative reverse-SETI projects. This would enhance the likelihood of finding still other civilizations because: They would have practice contacting alien civilizations, and they would be good at it. They would split up assigned areas of the galaxy. Each would re-broadcast messages from the other. Perhaps eventually dozens or hundreds of civilizations might join in an organized effort. If anything like this scenario was occurring, I think it is likely that we would have detected a hello galaxy! signal by now. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
Jed Rothwell To be effective you would want to send out multiple beams from deep space, repeated for thousands of years, from an antenna orbiting the star or on the surface of an airless planet . . . Even something as elaborate as this will eventually cost a trivial amount. It seems to me that an intelligent species would be motivated to do this as a favor to alien astronomers and biologists. To help your distant intellectual colleagues. Jed, why not use star light as the carrier where we develop tether arrays above the star to derive power like The NASA tether did above the earth - then we only need to develop a way to modulate the light differently between array segments to create a mask of binary values such that interstellar observers could read messages like a persistent bar code on the face of our sun. Perhaps some twinkling stars in the sky actually represent a slow stream of bar codes allowing receivers to employ synthetic aperture to accumulate signal strength. The stars are likely the first objects an evolving civilization will study and therefore the most likely source to be detected if modulated. We simply don't have the big picture yet - we need an array/eye probably the size of the inner system to really look at another solar system up close and look for possible messages in the image contrasts of distant suns. Like those holiday projectors we use to paint snowmen or jack o lanterns on the sides of our homes we could modulate the binary mask in front of our sun into images of astronomical proportions. Fran
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
--- On Tue, 7/20/10, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: If it was an interstellar communication and it happened to impinge on earth, it would have stayed pointed in our direction for a long time. Ditto for a deliberate signal to attract our attention and announce the existence of another intelligent species. If it was deliberate, yes. If not, if it was something else, or a spurious transmission for reasons unknown, it might not remain on us for long. The beam width would be a factor, motion of the beam emitter (rotation of the planet surface, etc.), and so on. The WOW signal duration was reckoned to be something like 2 to 2.5 minutes. Possibly more, if the observation was almost coincident with termination time. For a very directional broadcast to something other than our world (meaning, we only saw it by accident) that might be enough time for us to lose it. Thinking about this SETI issue some more . . . (not CETI!) . . . I assume we are only talking about signals within our galaxy. The Milky Way galaxy is about 100,000 ly accross and 1,000 ly thick, with 200 to 300 billion stars (depending on the source). Based on the failure of SETI so far, I think it is safe to conclude that in our galaxy there are not millions of contemporaneous civilizations vying for our attention. That is to say: Well, it's hard to call a failure; as I said before, META and the others have detected things which aren't explained. As Sagan pointed out, the fact that most of these incidents were in the plane of the galaxy is interesting. I'd agree there aren't millions of technological civilizations vying for our attention; that doesn't mean there aren't ~ 1 million civilizations out there. Maybe they aren't vying for our attention. Maybe they don't even know we're here yet. Not long ago, there were no radio transmitters. Even within the last few hours of the cosmic calendar, we were scurrying around throwing spears at one another, and no one knew what steel was. As the late Douglas Adams points out, space is big. It's been suggested that self-replicating probes could have spread throughout the galaxy by now, so we should see 'them' if they are here. This assumes many things. 1. They chose to do this. 2. It's really that easy to send self-replicators out there. 3. They want us to know they exist. 4. In the millions of years necessary to scout out the whole galaxy, 'they' haven't evolved into something far beyond our understanding. Maybe they don't want to talk to the local anthill. All this assumes that travel takes place at less than C. Let's consider what might happen if travel faster than C is possible. Things change pretty seriously, and I'd posit that, paradoxically, the ability to go faster than light might *slow* expansion across the galaxy. For instance, if FTL travel is possible, and 'they' are doing it, it makes sustaining (for want of a better term) an interstellar empire more feasible. Instead of autonomous colonies out among the stars, spreading exponentially, they might have far greater contact with home, and thus concentration on building up and exploiting the resources of the local interstellar neighborhood might be of great interest. Missions to other stars could be manned instead of computer controlled. The ability to learn more could be increased, slowing the rate of expansion. On the other hand, as far as we know, maybe someone close by has already learned of us, and is on their way even as I type this. 1. Contemporaneous means existing long enough to reach us; a signal broadcast for thousands of years, within the last 100,000 years. That is really not such a long time. I assume that stable, intelligent civilizations usually last longer than that. Stable non-intelligent species do. fL in Drake's equation might extend to more than just self-destruction. The possibility also exists that someone or something out there might not like the idea of competing, potentially threatening civilizations arising and progressing. If at least some advanced civilizations do go around stamping out others preemptively, then the survivors (and probably the killers, for obvious reasons) would have a good reason to be quiet. It's sobering to think of a sort of interstellar natural selection, where the ones who scream into the void are noticed by something, and promptly taken care of. We could send this kind of hello galaxy! signal even now, only 100 years after discovering radio. Naturally it would cost a great deal of money and it is not likely we would do it. But I assume that a civilization that discovered radio centuries or thousands of years ago would be so advanced, the cost of setting up a broadcast would trivial. It might be something a small group of private individuals could afford. Possible, but if they are that far ahead of us, what if they have something better than radio? Do they want to signal the primitives, or talk to someone who has
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
In reply to Jed Rothwell's message of Tue, 20 Jul 2010 18:41:34 -0400: Hi, [snip] So, based on this, I conclude that the galaxy is not filled with millions of intelligent species in civilizations that have lasted for hundreds of thousands or millions of years, and achieved much greater wealth and stability than we have. Or if there are such civilizations, the psychology of the species is not similar to ours. [snip] There is at least one alien species bending over backwards to contact us, and we are just as vigorously sticking our collective heads in the sand. I am referring to crop circles. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
On Sun, Jul 18, 2010 at 10:23 PM, mix...@bigpond.com wrote: ...two modern myths. ;) Spiraling into control: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20727694.100-quantum-entanglement-holds-together-lifes-blueprint.html http://snipurl.com/zlv2y snip When the researchers analysed the DNA without its helical structure, they found that the electron clouds were not entangled. But when they incorporated DNA's helical structure into the model, they saw that the electron clouds of each base pair became entangled with those of its neighbours (arxiv.org/abs/1006.4053v1). If you didn't have entanglement, then DNA would have a simple flat structure, and you would never get the twist that seems to be important to the functioning of DNA, says team member Vlatko Vedral of the University of Oxford. more T
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
--- On Sat, 7/17/10, mix...@bigpond.com mix...@bigpond.com wrote: At a distance of 1 light year, a dish with a radius of 100 m would pick up grand total of 3E-22 W from a 10 MW transmitter on Earth. I don't think there are any 10 MW transmitters, and even if there were, a signal that small would be completely and utterly lost in the background noise. From this page, http://www.faqs.org/faqs/astronomy/faq/part6/section-12.html it is suggested a UHF carrier could be detected at a range of 0.3 ly. If that is true, a passing probe, eavesdropping on nearby solar-type stars could get an idea that there's something near the Sun. I read a paper some time ago, by Jill Tarter I think, that suggested that radar broadcasts (Arecibo transmissions, ICBM early warning radar) could be detected out to a distance of some light-years. The fact that no intelligible broadcast could be detected from a distance of more than ~1/3 light-year is interesting; there could be something as close as Alpha Centauri, and we might never know about it. --Kyle
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
Kyle Mcallister wrote: it is suggested a UHF carrier could be detected at a range of 0.3 ly. If that is true, a passing probe, eavesdropping on nearby solar-type stars could get an idea that there's something near the Sun. I read a paper some time ago, by Jill Tarter I think, that suggested that radar broadcasts (Arecibo transmissions, ICBM early warning radar) could be detected out to a distance of some light-years. Hmmm . . . What about up-links to geosynchronous TV and telcom satellites. Or, if a civilization expands beyond one planet (but not interstellar), what about interplanetary communications? I think the best prospect would be to eavesdrop on an interstellar civilization. The fact that no intelligible broadcast could be detected from a distance of more than ~1/3 light-year is interesting; there could be something as close as Alpha Centauri, and we might never know about it. Goodness! That's sobering. That's assuming they have approximately the same technology as we do. It puts CETI in perspective; we have not checked much yet. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
--- On Sat, 7/17/10, mix...@bigpond.com mix...@bigpond.com wrote: To put this in perspective, in order to pick up 1 micro-Watt in total from our 10 MW transmitter, the dish would have to have a radius of 6 million km. BTW the *closest* star to Sol is 4 ly away, not one. 1uW is a lot of power, at least to a radio receiver. I'm pretty sure my homebrew regen set will beat this. My flame radio would probably detect it as well, even as badly received as that project was. If Wikipedia is to be believed, and several other places, including NASA themselves confirm it, the Galileo probe's 20W transmitter produced a signal which, upon reaching the DSN dish, had a power of about 1x10^-21W. The dynamics are far different from broadcast TV, of course, but the situation isn't so terribly bad for listening. Really, I wouldn't expect to find intelligent life around Alpha Centauri. The dynamics of the system are somewhat of a mess. I think we need to look a little further away. Beta CVn is probably one of the most interesting, and not too far away by cosmic standards. Zeta Tucanae, 18 Scorpii could be candidates. I don't know if any of these were recently determined to be spectroscopic binaries. Of course this could be narrowing things too much. M-type stars are the most common, and if we assume a life system using ammonia or some other cryofluid as a thalassogen, things are more interesting. Going a little more off topic, Stephen Gillett's book World Building gives some alternative possible biosystems. He's a little too pessimistic as far as technology goes. For instance, the world he calls Clorox has an atmosphere loaded with free chlorine gas. The suggestion that a lack of fire, and rapid corrosion of steel (the steel would rapidly corrode, and you couldn't smelt it in the first place) would stymie technological development seems sort of short sighted given intelligence. Intelligence finds a way, I believe. Hell, simply coating the transformer steel in rubber or plastic (maybe on a chlorine world they have PVC trees) would stop the corrosion. The challenges presented to the inhabitants of that world might actually spur development and innovation. --Kyle
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
--- On Sun, 7/18/10, mix...@bigpond.com mix...@bigpond.com wrote: I seem to recall that measurements on some supernova indicated that the neutrino burst and the x-rays arrived at the same time. IOW neutrinos don't travel faster than light. (Only tachyons do that ;^) On the one hand... In my defense, I was just suggesting neutrinos as an alternative, mainly that they could penetrate just about anything without being significantly attenuated. I didn't mean to sound as if I was suggesting that they go FTL. On the other hand... the electron-neutrino does some silly things. http://www.npl.washington.edu/AV/altvw54.html Yeah, it's old. It's still possible. Forward had some things to say about the electron neutrino as well. On the tail... there's a funny kink in the cosmic ray spectrum. http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/9904290 http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/0009040 Might be that this will all come to nothing. But if the particle zookeepers can keep screaming that the Higgs is the messiah, I reckon I can have some fun too. ;- --Kyle
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
--- On Mon, 7/19/10, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: Hmmm . . . What about up-links to geosynchronous TV and telcom satellites. Or, if a civilization expands beyond one planet (but not interstellar), what about interplanetary communications? I don't have any data on hand about those systems, but it'd be interesting to look into. The satellite broadcasts themselves are going to be aimed down here, so those originating in space (minus something which might bounce off the atmosphere) wouldn't likely factor in. Whatever we send up to them, might be a different matter. The Voyager probes with 22W transmitters can reach here from 40 AU. I wonder how much further the Earth transmissions TO them can reach out to? I think the best prospect would be to eavesdrop on an interstellar civilization. Might be, but given that our communications technologies are becoming more compressed and efficient, we might not know what we're listening to. For instance, I recently constructed a vacuum tube radio from scratch. Coils let it cover everything from LW to SW. There are plenty of data transmissions on the SW bands which are barely understandable. In the higher frequencies, where even neater tricks can be done, the situation gets more interesting. If we eavesdrop, the best me might get is a brief flash of 'some noise' which looks tantalizingly like an artificial broadcast, but never repeats. There have been hundreds of these, the most famous being the '77 WOW signal that the Big Ear picked up. I think it would be fascinating if it turned out that the '77 signal was something artificial, maybe a burst transmission of planetary data that a probe had gathered. Maybe it was their version of Neil Armstrong, setting foot on a new world. (I still can't get over the fact that they bulldozed the Big Ear to make a golf course. Apologies to Bluto Blutarsky, but... They took the scope! The whole f*g scope!!!) ... And again, this all assumes 'they' are using radio. The fact that no intelligible broadcast could be detected from a distance of more than ~1/3 light-year is interesting; there could be something as close as Alpha Centauri, and we might never know about it. Goodness! That's sobering. That's assuming they have approximately the same technology as we do. It puts CETI in perspective; we have not checked much yet. - Jed I'm working out some simple, 'crunchy' calculations on how they might fare with a bigger receiver aperture. It does make one think. The galaxy has 400 billion suns, and we can't even detect technology around the nearest one, even if it is there. In some ways, it seems a little scary. In other ways, it's sort of comforting to be able to go outside, look up, and know that there are still plenty of places for the stellar cartographers to write, Here be dragons. What can I say, I love the unknown. --Kyle
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
V, From http://www.faqs.org/faqs/astronomy/faq/part6/section-12.html I did some calculations (assumes I did the arithmetic right) for a dish with an aperture of 10,000 meters. Such a structure could be conceivably constructed in space, using either one massive construct, or arrays of smaller ones linked together. I don't know if there would be a detriment in using multiple ones or not, so lets just assume our aliens are using a single, huge dish with an efficiency of 50%, as per the paper, and we'll leave the SNR at 25 as well. FM radio reaches out to about 0.008 ly. No one's listening to Canned Heat or Johnny Cash. UHF picture reaches 0.001 ly. I Love Lucy and Welcome Back Kotter are out. UHF carrier reaches 10.06 ly. Oh sh Assuming technology has progressed farther than our own (not an unlikely assumption if our aliens have the space program necessary to build a 10km diameter radiotelescope in deep space), someone could easily be listening to us from Tau Ceti. They might not know what we're saying, or who we are, but they could get the hint that there is a technological civilization somewhere around that dim yellow star in their sky. If they are curious enough, maybe they would come by and see us some time. --Kyle
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
In reply to Terry Blanton's message of Mon, 19 Jul 2010 19:53:30 -0400: Hi, From further down in the same article:- However, Aleksei Aksimentiev of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign is sceptical that quantum effects are the sole reason for the helical structure. He points out that the way the helical structure shields the hydrophobic bases from water inside a cell is already considered a viable explanation for DNA's shape. ...as I said, modern myths. On Sun, Jul 18, 2010 at 10:23 PM, mix...@bigpond.com wrote: ...two modern myths. ;) Spiraling into control: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20727694.100-quantum-entanglement-holds-together-lifes-blueprint.html http://snipurl.com/zlv2y snip When the researchers analysed the DNA without its helical structure, they found that the electron clouds were not entangled. But when they incorporated DNA's helical structure into the model, they saw that the electron clouds of each base pair became entangled with those of its neighbours (arxiv.org/abs/1006.4053v1). If you didn't have entanglement, then DNA would have a simple flat structure, and you would never get the twist that seems to be important to the functioning of DNA, says team member Vlatko Vedral of the University of Oxford. more T Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
In reply to Kyle Mcallister's message of Mon, 19 Jul 2010 17:07:03 -0700 (PDT): Hi, [snip] it is suggested a UHF carrier could be detected at a range of 0.3 ly. 0.3 ly is effectively next door. In order to be that close, it would have to have been deliberately sent to our solar system. If they are going to send one here deliberately, then they might as well go all the way, and come into the solar system, In which case they will pick up quite a bit more. However:- 1) They have to know to come to this system in the first place. 2) If such a probe were not capable of FTL travel, then there is a good chance that it would break down before it got here, depending on travel time. 3) If they have FTL travel capability, then they have no need of intercepting radio/tv anyway. If that is true, a passing probe, eavesdropping on nearby solar-type stars could get an idea that there's something near the Sun. I read a paper some time ago, by Jill Tarter I think, that suggested that radar broadcasts (Arecibo transmissions, ICBM early warning radar) could be detected out to a distance of some light-years. The fact that no intelligible broadcast could be detected from a distance of more than ~1/3 light-year is interesting; there could be something as close as Alpha Centauri, and we might never know about it. Indeed. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
Kyle Mcallister wrote: Another I'd add to the list is, we assume they would use radio waves or optical (laser) communication (ala COSETI). Some other medium may exist, which we either cannot use effectively at the moment (neutrinos) . . . The article in Failure mentioned the possibility of neutrino transmitters. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
Jed Rothwell said on Sun, 18 Jul 2010 08:13:01 -0700 Kyle Mcallister wrote: Another I'd add to the list is, we assume they would use radio waves or optical (laser) communication (ala COSETI). Some other medium may exist, which we either cannot use effectively at the moment (neutrinos) . . . The article in Failure mentioned the possibility of neutrino transmitters. - Jed We are also assuming serial transmission. A message could be contained in a constant holographic image. It would require us to distribute the array throughout the solar system AND employ synthetic aperture to increase the effective size of each segment. -Fran
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
Fran wrote: We are also assuming “serial” transmission. A message could be contained in a constant holographic image. . . . Indeed. And if we can come up with this list in the 21st century, imagine how many more variations an advanced civilization might think of. You might think there would be no use for such tremendous bandwidth, but that assumes they are only transmitting representational data such as text or high definition movies. Suppose, instead, they were transmitting detailed blueprints for manufactured items or food -- with the level of detail right down to the atom. Or the entire genotypes of individual animals. Suppose they are transmitting copies of themselves? Arthur Clarke discussed this in Profiles of the Future. He estimated that with the bandwidth of a television channel, transmitting a complete description of a human being would take 2 * 10E13 years. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
In reply to Jed Rothwell's message of Sun, 18 Jul 2010 11:11:38 -0400: Hi, I seem to recall that measurements on some supernova indicated that the neutrino burst and the x-rays arrived at the same time. IOW neutrinos don't travel faster than light. (Only tachyons do that ;^) Kyle Mcallister wrote: Another I'd add to the list is, we assume they would use radio waves or optical (laser) communication (ala COSETI). Some other medium may exist, which we either cannot use effectively at the moment (neutrinos) . . . The article in Failure mentioned the possibility of neutrino transmitters. - Jed Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
On Sun, Jul 18, 2010 at 5:51 PM, mix...@bigpond.com wrote: I seem to recall that measurements on some supernova indicated that the neutrino burst and the x-rays arrived at the same time. IOW neutrinos don't travel faster than light. (Only tachyons do that ;^) And entanglement resolution. T
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
In reply to Terry Blanton's message of Sun, 18 Jul 2010 19:22:37 -0400: Hi, [snip] On Sun, Jul 18, 2010 at 5:51 PM, mix...@bigpond.com wrote: I seem to recall that measurements on some supernova indicated that the neutrino burst and the x-rays arrived at the same time. IOW neutrinos don't travel faster than light. (Only tachyons do that ;^) And entanglement resolution. T ...two modern myths. ;) Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
--- On Fri, 7/16/10, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: Jed, and all: Another I'd add to the list is, we assume they would use radio waves or optical (laser) communication (ala COSETI). Some other medium may exist, which we either cannot use effectively at the moment (neutrinos) or which we don't know about at all. If faster than light communication is possible, they wouldn't worry with something as slow as radio. Perhaps there is a window of time in the development of intelligent, communicative civilizations in which they are only broadcasting radio waves for a brief time before something else is used. Or they may not broadcast deliberately at all. We know of one civilization that very, very rarely does: humanity. 1. Recent studies have shown that transmissions from earth are probably too weak and scrambled to be decoded after a few light years. I don't know the basis, but that's what I have read. It is a myth that people on other planets could hear our radio and TV broadcasts, or signals from our space probes. So unless the alien civilization is deliberately broadcasting for an interstellar audience we will not pick it up. TV and commercial radio broadcasts would reach out a light year or so before being 'lost.' They would have to, barring some better technology, send a probe on a flyby of the solar system to eavesdrop. On the other hand, military and planetary radar -can- reach out a great distance. Should an intelligent civilization be predisposed (read: curious and perhaps aggressively expansionistic), they could look for telltale signs of this sort of thing going on in the local group of stars. Someone a dozen or so light-years away could have arrays of radio telescopes looking at all nearby stars which could conceivably support life and a civilization, listening nonstop for the first hint of something going on. If they are advanced enough to do this, one would think their signals-processing technology would be that much better. A few picked up radar sweeps might intrigue them. Whether or not that would be good is arguable. --Kyle
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
In reply to Kyle Mcallister's message of Sat, 17 Jul 2010 19:19:55 -0700 (PDT): Hi, [snip] TV and commercial radio broadcasts would reach out a light year or so before being 'lost.' At a distance of 1 light year, a dish with a radius of 100 m would pick up grand total of 3E-22 W from a 10 MW transmitter on Earth. I don't think there are any 10 MW transmitters, and even if there were, a signal that small would be completely and utterly lost in the background noise. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
Re: [Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
In reply to mix...@bigpond.com's message of Sun, 18 Jul 2010 13:15:03 +1000: Hi, [snip] To put this in perspective, in order to pick up 1 micro-Watt in total from our 10 MW transmitter, the dish would have to have a radius of 6 million km. BTW the *closest* star to Sol is 4 ly away, not one. At a distance of 1 light year, a dish with a radius of 100 m would pick up grand total of 3E-22 W from a 10 MW transmitter on Earth. I don't think there are any 10 MW transmitters, and even if there were, a signal that small would be completely and utterly lost in the background noise. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/Project.html
[Vo]:Somewhat OFF TOPIC Merchants of Doubt
From Failure Magazine. I just love the title of this magazine! See: http://failuremag.com/index.php/feature/article/merchants_of_doubt/ Merchants of Doubt This is somewhat political, but I regard it as an antidote to the accusation that we are conspiracy theorists and the opposition is all in our heads. It turns out there really is such thing as organized opposition to research. Who knew? QUOTE: How a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco to global warming. . . . this loose-knit group of individuals has been operating for decades, fighting the facts on a laundry list of health and environmental issues, including tobacco, secondhand smoke, asbestos, acid rain, and the ozone hole. This isn't to suggest that these ideologically driven scientists are experts on the points they debate. In fact, they have done virtually no original research on the issues in question. Instead they rely on public relations strategies designed to mislead the public, executing campaigns with the assistance of private corporations . . . . . . I do not think there are any private corporations or other organizations opposed to cold fusion. I think most opposition comes from a small number of people such as Robert Park, but as Ed Storms points out, other people are handing Park the microphone and clapping him on the back with attaboy encouragement. I have often said there is hidden latent support for the field. Recently there have been meetings and efforts to get funding for research that have been derailed by political opposition, so evidently there is also hidden latent opposition. Anyway, opponents generally know nothing about the research, and their tactics are similar to the ones described in this article. This magazine has many articles about technological failures such as the V-22 Osprey in this section: http://failuremag.com/index.php/feature/category/science_technology/http://failuremag.com/index.php/feature/category/science_technology/ Regarding the failure described in SETI at 50 I have long felt that there are two technical problems. Assume we are trying to tune into ordinary radio or TV communication, that is, conversations or broadcasts for the same species, not deliberately intended for alien civilizations (like us). Two problems arise: 1. Recent studies have shown that transmissions from earth are probably too weak and scrambled to be decoded after a few light years. I don't know the basis, but that's what I have read. It is a myth that people on other planets could hear our radio and TV broadcasts, or signals from our space probes. So unless the alien civilization is deliberately broadcasting for an interstellar audience we will not pick it up. 2. As communication technology improves, the signal becomes more compressed (such as DISH Network), and at lower power (such as GPS signal). A signal from an advanced civilization might be so compressed it would be indistinguishable from noise. That would be the case if it were a utilitarian broadcast to someone at the other end who knows how to decode it. As I said, that would not be the case if they were broadcasting to alien CETI researchers, but I suppose that utilitarian broadcasts far outnumber Hello World! messages. Anyway, I digress. - Jed
