RE: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
If LENR became practical, I think oil would sink to a level of value consistent with the need for lubricants and petrochemicals such as plastic.
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
Chris Zell chrisz...@wetmtv.com wrote: ** If LENR became practical, I think oil would sink to a level of value consistent with the need for lubricants and petrochemicals such as plastic. The value of oil would sink lower than than. I think people would soon find ways to synthesize lubricants and petrochemicals from local materials. They already do this, converting garbage to oil with thermal depolymerization. The materials in this case have a negative costs; municipalities pay you to take them. I predict that eventually this process will produce oil more cheaply than digging it out of the ground and shipping it long distances. It will also be safer. I discussed this in my book. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
I wrote: I predict that eventually this process will produce oil more cheaply than digging it out of the ground and shipping it long distances. It will also be safer. I do not mean right away, or even 10 years after cold fusion becomes common. I suppose it will be gradual. After decades the use of natural oil from the ground will fade away, and petrochemical feedstocks for plastics will all be made from local organic waste, or coal. Thermal depolymerization calls for heat (obviously). Hot water. You can have unlimited amounts of hot water with cold fusion at no cost. As I said, the raw materials cost less than nothing. You might earn as much getting rid of them as you earn by selling the petrochemicals. You could convert garbage and sewage to oil and sterile fertilizer, which would be used in food factories. In the long term, I do not see how oil can compete with that. I have heard there are some fractions of oil (some petrochemicals) that cannot be synthesized today. However, I expect that problem will be solved. - Jed
RE: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
Yeah, LENR could make depolymerization cheap eventually...but let's see the practical implementaion of LENR before we get too visionary. This thing is getting too long in the tooth already. I wanna see a whole practical demo as a TED lecture which ends with Monty Python style taunts addressed to the oil companies.
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
A bit LERN bypassed story. Have look at this for a better reason to divest in Oil: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2012/12/05/usa-energy-independence-renewable/1749073/ On Mon, Mar 11, 2013 at 3:58 PM, Chris Zell chrisz...@wetmtv.com wrote: ** Yeah, LENR could make depolymerization cheap eventually...but let's see the practical implementaion of LENR before we get too visionary. This thing is getting too long in the tooth already. I wanna see a whole practical demo as a TED lecture which ends with Monty Python style taunts addressed to the oil companies.
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
Chris Zell chrisz...@wetmtv.com wrote: but let's see the practical implementaion of LENR before we get too visionary. This thing is getting too long in the tooth already. Yup. I wanna see a whole practical demo as a TED lecture which ends with Monty Python style taunts addressed to the oil companies. As for me, I feel a bit like the guy in the joke: Guy is in the hospital . . . .The doctor says, you have rabies. The guy picks up a pad of paper and starts writing furiously. The doctor says, don't worry, you don't have to write a will. We can cure that nowadays. The guy says: This is not a will. It is a list of people I am going to bite. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
The price would bottom out at the OM cost of refined products -- the stored capacity of refined products being a small fraction of the ~10 year deployment of substantial LENR technology. Capital can be written off. On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 7:34 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: James Bowery jabow...@gmail.com wrote: On the other hand the market cap of oil company shares take into account the value of resources in the ground and those quite possibly could be affected significantly within 3 to 4 years of such an announcement. A close friend of mine is an economist. He says that the valuation of any company extends into the future for decades. In this case, he said that if it becomes generally known that a form of cold fusion is commercially useful, and if nearly everyone agrees that is true, that would mean oil companies have no long-term future. The present value of oil companies would plummet. The price of oil would also drop sharply, because the oil companies would want to sell off their inventory quickly. That has been my gut feeling for a long time. He confirmed it. In other words, it is not just the commodity value in 4 years that matters. In this situation the oil companies would be like companies manufacturing vacuum tubes in 1952, after transistors were announced. Even though not a single transistor had been sold. savvy people knew they would soon erode sales of vacuum tubes. - Jed
[Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
Why Are the Big Financial Institutions Selling Oil BIG? http://oilprice.com/Finance/investing-and-trading-reports/Why-Are-the-Big-Financial-Institutions-Selling-Oil-BIG.html
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
I believe it has nothing to do with LENR and everything to do with attempting to control inflation because of all of the European and US money printing (QE). You see the same large companies doing the same to commodities - As he mentioned it is being done by JP Morgan and crew but most likely with the backing of the Fed and the other European central banks. On 03/08/2013 02:52 PM, pagnu...@htdconnect.com wrote: Why Are the Big Financial Institutions Selling Oil BIG? http://oilprice.com/Finance/investing-and-trading-reports/Why-Are-the-Big-Financial-Institutions-Selling-Oil-BIG.html
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
80% of what the press gives us are false correlations. This is a good example, actually the impact of the E-cat is zero and its minstream credibility inexistent. The author probably has a strong sense of humor Peter On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 10:05 PM, Joe Hughes jhughe...@comcast.net wrote: I believe it has nothing to do with LENR and everything to do with attempting to control inflation because of all of the European and US money printing (QE). You see the same large companies doing the same to commodities - As he mentioned it is being done by JP Morgan and crew but most likely with the backing of the Fed and the other European central banks. On 03/08/2013 02:52 PM, pagnu...@htdconnect.com wrote: Why Are the Big Financial Institutions Selling Oil BIG? http://oilprice.com/Finance/**investing-and-trading-reports/** Why-Are-the-Big-Financial-**Institutions-Selling-Oil-BIG.**htmlhttp://oilprice.com/Finance/investing-and-trading-reports/Why-Are-the-Big-Financial-Institutions-Selling-Oil-BIG.html -- Dr. Peter Gluck Cluj, Romania http://egooutpeters.blogspot.com
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
Peter Gluck wrote: 80% of what the press gives us are false correlations. This is a good example, actually the impact of the E-cat is zero and its minstream credibility inexistent. I agree. (You mean nonexistent.) - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
At 12:05 PM 3/8/2013, you wrote: I believe it has nothing to do with LENR and everything to do with attempting to control inflation because of all of the European and US money printing (QE). You see the same large companies doing the same to commodities - As he mentioned it is being done by JP Morgan and crew but most likely with the backing of the Fed and the other European central banks. Why Are the Big Financial Institutions Selling Oil BIG? http://oilprice.com/Finance/investing-and-trading-reports/Why-Are-the-Big-Financial-Institutions-Selling-Oil-BIG.html Or if you want a technological reason -- 50 mpg standards, Electric cars -- and cheap, cheap, cheap natural gas. eg Berkshire's Oil Hauling Railroad (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) Tests Switch to Natural Gas http://www.cnbc.com/id/100530572
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 2:52 PM, pagnu...@htdconnect.com wrote: Why Are the Big Financial Institutions Selling Oil BIG? I posted earlier that the US will not support LENR. We are on the verge of becoming an oil exporter. http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/03/08/secret-energy-revolution-could-hasten-end-to-dependence-on-foreign-oil/
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
Terry Blanton hohlr...@gmail.com wrote: I posted earlier that the US will not support LENR. We are on the verge of becoming an oil exporter. What part of the U.S.? Exxon Mobil? The DoE? General Electric? Ordinary people, who will save thousands of dollars a year with LENR? I expect opinions will be divided. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 3:32 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: I expect opinions will be divided. I agree. They already are! :-)
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
actually negative. this can change, in principle. It is not figuring in such dictionaries: *Glossary of bullshit business terms* http://culturaloffering.com/2013/03/08/glossary--.aspx but, for example:we agree, in principle actually means no.not,but we will not tell you this just now The E-cat is not recorded yet even by the most sensitive business seismographs. Peter On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 10:22 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: Peter Gluck wrote: 80% of what the press gives us are false correlations. This is a good example, actually the impact of the E-cat is zero and its minstream credibility inexistent. I agree. (You mean nonexistent.) - Jed -- Dr. Peter Gluck Cluj, Romania http://egooutpeters.blogspot.com
RE: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
LENR is nowhere close to influencing oil prices, and how can you control inflation by shorting Big Oil ? The sell-off could be technology related, however. But it is old and not green. Curiously - it is Nazi technology, so at least they gave us something of value. You can call it Messerschmitt Fuel from an improved version of Fischer-Tropsch. Pilot plants are producing a barrel of premium low sulfur diesel for $66, or $1.57 a gallon, using gas at $4 per thousand standard cubic feet at small plants near the shale. In contrast, it cost Exxon about $124 a barrel, or $2.95 a gallon to make premium diesel from Texas crude, almost double. Would you want to keep Exxon knowing this? Smart money seems to be selling Big Oil because there is a glut of shale gas, and the new technology allows conversion of that gas to diesel fuel and heating oil at less than the cost of crude. It's a no brainer and LENR is out of the picture. This glut will not last more than a few years according to experts. An eventual price drop at the pump could put at least $200 billion back into the US economy which had been going to OPEC, so all the talk about sequester is probably hype. However, the bad news in California is pump prices have not dropped much, because we are cursed with the Chevron hegemony and undeveloped shale gas. But that can change. http://money.cnn.com/2013/01/14/news/economy/california-oil-boom/index.html -Original Message- From: Joe Hughes I believe it has nothing to do with LENR and everything to do with attempting to control inflation because of all of the European and US money printing (QE). You see the same large companies doing the same to commodities - As he mentioned it is being done by JP Morgan and crew but most likely with the backing of the Fed and the other European central banks. On 03/08/2013 02:52 PM, pagnu...@htdconnect.com wrote: Why Are the Big Financial Institutions Selling Oil BIG? http://oilprice.com/Finance/investing-and-trading-reports/Why-Are-the-Big-Fi nancial-Institutions-Selling-Oil-BIG.html
RE: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
This article from Oilprice.com is a really good bullshit. It will take ages before LENR will have an impact on oil prices, and therefore on energy prices. Big banks, and big oil companies will have (or already have) a strong fight against LENR. But surely it will not be like it's explained in the article. With 10 GW or even 100 GW of LENR energy available, the energy prices might start to be slightly affected. For comparison, 100 GW is a little more than what France has of electrical power installed. Suppose Rossi and others start to produce LENR reactors, how long will it take to have 10 GW of LENR energy available? 3~4 years at least, guess from my thumb. We can keep our oil company share ;-)
RE: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
They may be pricing in economic decline in Europe and Japan, together with China slowing down. In addition, there are reports of an oil find in Australia that is gonzo freakin' huge. Like tens of trillions of dollars in reserves. Europe is taking note of the shale boom, too. Better than coal, at least.
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
You're one minor and one major industrial revolution behind in this analysis: Minor: The emergence of the east Asian giants has already fundamentally changed the political economics of technology deployment. They are much less encumbered than is the West and much more motivated to apply their manufacturing flexibility. This is like a combination of the Nazi economic miracle and the post-war German economic miracle. Major: Click on The Makers Revolutionhttp://fora.tv/2013/02/19/WIREDs_Chris_Anderson_The_Makers_Revolution On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 3:19 PM, Arnaud Kodeck arnaud.kod...@lakoco.bewrote: ** This article from Oilprice.com is a really good bullshit. It will take ages before LENR will have an impact on oil prices, and therefore on energy prices
RE: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
I don't understand what you exactly mean here? I'm aware of the new robotization revolution (Baxter robot, and the same arm multi purposes robots ...), but anyway, you can't change the all economy in a few winks. Moreover, in the beginning, there will have a huge fight against LENR by lobbyists before it could be mass market. Let just hope than we will be fester than the east Asian in this run. From: James Bowery [mailto:jabow...@gmail.com] Sent: vendredi 8 mars 2013 22:29 To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com You're one minor and one major industrial revolution behind in this analysis: Minor: The emergence of the east Asian giants has already fundamentally changed the political economics of technology deployment. They are much less encumbered than is the West and much more motivated to apply their manufacturing flexibility. This is like a combination of the Nazi economic miracle and the post-war German economic miracle. Major: Click on The Makers Revolution On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 3:19 PM, Arnaud Kodeck arnaud.kod...@lakoco.be wrote: This article from Oilprice.com is a really good bullshit. It will take ages before LENR will have an impact on oil prices, and therefore on energy prices
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
In reply to Jones Beene's message of Fri, 8 Mar 2013 13:12:54 -0800: Hi, [snip] http://money.cnn.com/2013/01/14/news/economy/california-oil-boom/index.html Note that it follows the San Andreas Fault. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/project.html
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
You didn't click through the link and watch the presentation by Anderson. Do so. On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 5:11 PM, Arnaud Kodeck arnaud.kod...@lakoco.bewrote: I don't understand what you exactly mean here? I'm aware of the new robotization revolution (Baxter robot, and the same arm multi purposes robots ...), but anyway, you can't change the all economy in a few winks. Moreover, in the beginning, there will have a huge fight against LENR by lobbyists before it could be mass market. Let just hope than we will be fester than the east Asian in this run. From: James Bowery [mailto:jabow...@gmail.com] Sent: vendredi 8 mars 2013 22:29 To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com You're one minor and one major industrial revolution behind in this analysis: Minor: The emergence of the east Asian giants has already fundamentally changed the political economics of technology deployment. They are much less encumbered than is the West and much more motivated to apply their manufacturing flexibility. This is like a combination of the Nazi economic miracle and the post-war German economic miracle. Major: Click on The Makers Revolution On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 3:19 PM, Arnaud Kodeck arnaud.kod...@lakoco.be wrote: This article from Oilprice.com is a really good bullshit. It will take ages before LENR will have an impact on oil prices, and therefore on energy prices
RE: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
I did! Thank you for it. Nothing special I'm aware of. Do you belief than LENR will change the energy market in less than 3 years? _ From: James Bowery [mailto:jabow...@gmail.com] Sent: samedi 9 mars 2013 01:01 To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com You didn't click through the link and watch the presentation by Anderson. Do so. On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 5:11 PM, Arnaud Kodeck arnaud.kod...@lakoco.be wrote: I don't understand what you exactly mean here? I'm aware of the new robotization revolution (Baxter robot, and the same arm multi purposes robots ...), but anyway, you can't change the all economy in a few winks. Moreover, in the beginning, there will have a huge fight against LENR by lobbyists before it could be mass market. Let just hope than we will be fester than the east Asian in this run. From: James Bowery [mailto:jabow...@gmail.com] Sent: vendredi 8 mars 2013 22:29 To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com You're one minor and one major industrial revolution behind in this analysis: Minor: The emergence of the east Asian giants has already fundamentally changed the political economics of technology deployment. They are much less encumbered than is the West and much more motivated to apply their manufacturing flexibility. This is like a combination of the Nazi economic miracle and the post-war German economic miracle. Major: Click on The Makers Revolution On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 3:19 PM, Arnaud Kodeck arnaud.kod...@lakoco.be wrote: This article from Oilprice.com is a really good bullshit. It will take ages before LENR will have an impact on oil prices, and therefore on energy prices
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
Ah, I only read as far as your phrase will take ages where you called bullshit. 3 to 4 years out (not exactly ages ), you're right: the futures contracts are unlikely to be significantly altered by the announcement of fully functional Hot-CAT from Rossi or similar announcement. On the other hand the market cap of oil company shares take into account the value of resources in the ground and those quite possibly could be affected significantly within 3 to 4 years of such an announcement. On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 6:06 PM, Arnaud Kodeck arnaud.kod...@lakoco.bewrote: ** I did! Thank you for it. Nothing special I’m aware of. ** ** Do you belief than LENR will change the energy market in less than 3 years? ** ** -- *From:* James Bowery [mailto:jabow...@gmail.com] *Sent:* samedi 9 mars 2013 01:01 *To:* **vortex-l@eskimo.com** *Subject:* Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com ** ** You didn't click through the link and watch the presentation by Anderson.* *** ** ** Do so. On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 5:11 PM, Arnaud Kodeck arnaud.kod...@lakoco.be wrote: I don't understand what you exactly mean here? I'm aware of the new robotization revolution (Baxter robot, and the same arm multi purposes robots ...), but anyway, you can't change the all economy in a few winks. Moreover, in the beginning, there will have a huge fight against LENR by lobbyists before it could be mass market. Let just hope than we will be fester than the east Asian in this run. From: James Bowery [mailto:jabow...@gmail.com] Sent: vendredi 8 mars 2013 22:29 To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com You're one minor and one major industrial revolution behind in this analysis: Minor: The emergence of the east Asian giants has already fundamentally changed the political economics of technology deployment. They are much less encumbered than is the West and much more motivated to apply their manufacturing flexibility. This is like a combination of the Nazi economic miracle and the post-war German economic miracle. Major: Click on The Makers Revolution On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 3:19 PM, Arnaud Kodeck arnaud.kod...@lakoco.be wrote: This article from Oilprice.com is a really good bullshit. It will take ages before LENR will have an impact on oil prices, and therefore on energy prices ** **
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
James Bowery jabow...@gmail.com wrote: On the other hand the market cap of oil company shares take into account the value of resources in the ground and those quite possibly could be affected significantly within 3 to 4 years of such an announcement. A close friend of mine is an economist. He says that the valuation of any company extends into the future for decades. In this case, he said that if it becomes generally known that a form of cold fusion is commercially useful, and if nearly everyone agrees that is true, that would mean oil companies have no long-term future. The present value of oil companies would plummet. The price of oil would also drop sharply, because the oil companies would want to sell off their inventory quickly. That has been my gut feeling for a long time. He confirmed it. In other words, it is not just the commodity value in 4 years that matters. In this situation the oil companies would be like companies manufacturing vacuum tubes in 1952, after transistors were announced. Even though not a single transistor had been sold. savvy people knew they would soon erode sales of vacuum tubes. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
It would be interesting to look at the surface of the inflation-adjusted price of triode vacuum tubes vs volume shipped through time from 1947. The same surface, substituting total market cap of vacuum tube companies for triod vacuum tube price would be an interesting comparison. On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 7:34 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: James Bowery jabow...@gmail.com wrote: On the other hand the market cap of oil company shares take into account the value of resources in the ground and those quite possibly could be affected significantly within 3 to 4 years of such an announcement. A close friend of mine is an economist. He says that the valuation of any company extends into the future for decades. In this case, he said that if it becomes generally known that a form of cold fusion is commercially useful, and if nearly everyone agrees that is true, that would mean oil companies have no long-term future. The present value of oil companies would plummet. The price of oil would also drop sharply, because the oil companies would want to sell off their inventory quickly. That has been my gut feeling for a long time. He confirmed it. In other words, it is not just the commodity value in 4 years that matters. In this situation the oil companies would be like companies manufacturing vacuum tubes in 1952, after transistors were announced. Even though not a single transistor had been sold. savvy people knew they would soon erode sales of vacuum tubes. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 8:34 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: In other words, it is not just the commodity value in 4 years that matters. In this situation the oil companies would be like companies manufacturing vacuum tubes in 1952, after transistors were announced. Even though not a single transistor had been sold. savvy people knew they would soon erode sales of vacuum tubes. - Jed Return of the vacuum tube at the nano scale... http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2012/05/return-of-the-vacuum-tube.html Harry
Re: [Vo]:Speculation on Rossi from OILPRICE.com
Erratum: surface - parametric curve On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 7:44 PM, James Bowery jabow...@gmail.com wrote: It would be interesting to look at the surface of the inflation-adjusted price of triode vacuum tubes vs volume shipped through time from 1947. The same surface, substituting total market cap of vacuum tube companies for triod vacuum tube price would be an interesting comparison. On Fri, Mar 8, 2013 at 7:34 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.comwrote: James Bowery jabow...@gmail.com wrote: On the other hand the market cap of oil company shares take into account the value of resources in the ground and those quite possibly could be affected significantly within 3 to 4 years of such an announcement. A close friend of mine is an economist. He says that the valuation of any company extends into the future for decades. In this case, he said that if it becomes generally known that a form of cold fusion is commercially useful, and if nearly everyone agrees that is true, that would mean oil companies have no long-term future. The present value of oil companies would plummet. The price of oil would also drop sharply, because the oil companies would want to sell off their inventory quickly. That has been my gut feeling for a long time. He confirmed it. In other words, it is not just the commodity value in 4 years that matters. In this situation the oil companies would be like companies manufacturing vacuum tubes in 1952, after transistors were announced. Even though not a single transistor had been sold. savvy people knew they would soon erode sales of vacuum tubes. - Jed
