Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
--- Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: I do not think so. In ~4.5 billion years the sun will be a Red Giant, and I think the wavelength and power of the light will change considerably before that. http://www.astronomy.ohio-state.edu/~pogge/Lectures/vistas97.html As far as I can tell, from reading this and other sources, the main sequence life (roughly G type yellow dwarf) will last about another 5Gyr. Supposedly, in 1.1Gyr, it will become too bright, by 10% or so, for surface life to exist here. This doesn't, I think, do the Gaia hypothesis justice. Something might evolve that removes more CO2, or does something to offset this. Of course, this can't last forever. Eventually it will get too hot. Or will it? By then, human civilization, or whatever or whoever the current landlords are, may do something to change all this. Stellar rejuvenation has been discussed, to extend main sequence lifetime by 10 times or so. If they can do this, putting up some solar shields to dump a few tens of percents of insolation is trivial. The sun might end up lasting much longer than I said. If I wasn't exact, at least I was closer than some who say it is only going to last a few more years. I sometimes wonder how many of the peculiar stars we see out there might actually be someone's engineering project. --Kyle
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
Harry Veeder wrote: *- Original Message -* *From*: Terry Blanton hohlr...@gmail.com *Date*: Sunday, January 4, 2009 6:30 pm *Subject*: Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009 You might be our first poster from Argentina. Welcome! Are you having a good summer? Your post prompted me to look to see who has the most gold: http://www.globalfirepower.com/list_gold_reserves.asp Maybe I will buy some yuan tomorrow. It would be interesting to see which country has the most gold *including* jewelry. Terry On 1/4/09, Mauro Lacy ma...@lacy.com.ar wrote: Hi All, thanks for the interesting topics and info. As a means of reciprocity, here are some predictions, info, and some opinions. Some are predicting the dollar will end its global status as reserve currency(i.e. the dollar will collapse) this year. See http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8031.html for a very good analysis. Also worth reading is http://caps.fool.com/blogs/viewpost.aspx?bpid=125230t=01000785550515854591 and related links and comments. This comment I'm specially fond of: A gold backed currency would be a good start toward a sustainable economic model, but if it involves a central bank, then it is doubtful that it will work out in the long run. Politics will drive central banking policies just as they do now. If the central bank allows fractional reserve banking, even with a gold standard, it will still lead to boom and bust cycles in the economy. (first comment in http://seekingalpha.com/article/112731-will-the-new-gcc-single- currency-include-gold) I think there were booms and busts before the creation of central banks. Probably. Everything is cyclical, you know. What the author of that sentence is saying is that a central body of issuance of money can _artificially_ create booms and busts(so called business cycles) by controlling the amount of currency in circulation. Reduce the amount of money in circulation, and you'll produce a recession. Increase it, and you'll produce a boom. The other important thing that he's saying, is that a gold backed currency is no remedy for that. Besides, there are others cycles: Natural ones: if you are in an agricultural economy, a massive bad harvest(due by example to a natural disaster), will probably result in a economic recession. Systemic ones: You can't avoid a recession(and even a collapse) in the long term in a monetary system like the one we have now, due to systemic conditions. This is longer to explain, but basically, it is as said before: if money grows exponentially, and your economy's goods and services don't, you'll end up into a recession sooner or later due to this very imbalance. As an economy, you have three options to try to avoid this; two are monetary and one is economic: - prop up the system with with more of the same kind of money, simply delaying the day of reckoning and augmenting the problem. (i.e. this recession.) To do this is insane, but if you are obliged by the allegiance to your close friends in the finance circle, which don't want to go bankrupt, you maybe can have no other option. - reduce the amount of money in circulation (liquidity freeze, i.e 1930 recession.) - desperately trying to come up with enough goods and services to match your money growth(i.e. the grow grow grow! motto. Which is kind of metastatic, isn't? this will result in a collapse of the economic organism, i.e. the guest kills the host, and itself.) This aspect of the system is very significative, because in this process, we can literally consume the Earth trying to match our money growth. The ashes of that consumption will be a big pile of dollars. We'll cash in the Earth, so to speak. And then, we'll be left with nothing but dollars(or gold) to consume(i. e. King Midas legend.) It is, in the end, the desire to escape from the natural cycles of deterioration and decay, which put us in a kind of growth spiral which in the worst case scenario end ups with the destruction(consumption) of great part of our environment; and consequently, into a big economic collapse. Take into account also that, as long as you grow, it becomes more and more difficult to continue growing(resources become scarcer or difficult to obtain, etc.) From there results the general deterioration of quality of life and impoverishment of great part of society that we are witnessing today(as time progresses, practically everything has to be monetized, to try to match the money growth. Plus to this, the system is concentrated, that is, real wealth flows to the center in an attempt to reedem the debt actual money is in itself.) The sane alternative is sustainability: an economy that merely sustains itself, adjusting and following the natural cycles of growth and decay, without the compulsory need and illusory goal of continuous exponential growth. The very nature of our actual money imprints upon us the urge (and systemic necessity) to do the opposite
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
R C Macaulay wrote: Howdy Vorts, Interesting views comijng forward on this subject such as... This is a problem, in fact, with all kinds of debt-based (interest yields) currencies. The illusion of endless growth reveals itself as what really is. Your generation lived beyond it's means, as did mine, as did Gen X, as are their children. Now we've elected a president who is going to continue with the same nonsense. I have often considered the analogy of Titanic after it hit the iceberg. The sinking has been postponed by technological development. In this case cohering the ZPE which will reduce our oil imports. Technically in these cases, the economy return to the fundamentals (that are not bad, certainly) very quickly also. Not bad! We're continuing to live beyond our means, we have a hugh unfunded debt, and we're in a war with no end in sight. From reading the posts, it appears there is a division between those that view the economy in a temporary recession vs those that view it as a coming depression. Little has been You can put me in the second group. I think that the only reason the whole thing hasn't collapsed is the will of G-d. They started coining their own money. Richard Just remember what happened to President what's his name when he started printing money outside of the Federal Reserve. --- Get FREE High Speed Internet from USFamily.Net! -- http://www.usfamily.net/mkt-freepromo.html ---
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
Howdy Vorts, Interesting views comijng forward on this subject such as... This is a problem, in fact, with all kinds of debt-based(interest yields) currencies. The illusion of endless growth reveals itself as what really is. Technically in these cases, the economy return to the fundamentals(that are not bad, certainly) very quickly also. From reading the posts, it appears there is a division between those that view the economy in a temporary recession vs those that view it as a coming depression. Little has been expressing regarding a third view.. comparing the collapse of the economy to the collapse of the Roman Empire. This view cannot be accepted by the mainstream because it harbors doom and gloom that nobody wants to consider because the imagination leads to the horror component. Historical events are rampant with preludes like opera music. Richard's view.. either we are listening to the next and final prelude.. or.. the fat lady is fixin' to sing at the Roman opera house. What to do about it other than wet yur pants?? Do what the survivors of the collapse of Rome did.. They started coining their own money. Richard
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
You're right, of course. But military buildup has its limits, anyways. As an economy, you just can't go round the world for a long/sustainable time printing money, developing, building and stockpiling armament, and destroying all and everyone that doesn't want to abide to your rules/use your coins. Indeed, that's what's happening in the Iranian case actually. They just can't go and destroy Iran, because the consequences and complications of doing that are bigger than the fact that the Iranians are not using exclusively dollars anymore to sell their oil. Think about the costs, both in economic and human terms. The Iraq war, by example, had a cost in human lives bigger than a million people. And those costs are not only external, but also internal. You need to exert more and more pressure over time on your own and allied countries's populace to have enough soldiers (and supporters), willing to believe, to fight and to die to sustain your empire. That doesn't mean that they won't try it anyways. But technically, that will only accelerate the empire's collapse/implosion. And the other technical problem is that, although you do that to sustain your currency, anyways you've printed a lot of it already, to sustain your empire. There are simply not enough goods and services to redeem so much printed green paper, so the printed green paper devaluates. And when that starts to happen, it can happen very fast. This is a problem, in fact, with all kinds of debt-based(interest yields) currencies. The illusion of endless growth reveals itself as what really is. Technically in these cases, the economy return to the fundamentals(that are not bad, certainly) very quickly also. Mauro Taylor J. Smith wrote:
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
- Original Message - From: Terry Blanton hohlr...@gmail.com Date: Sunday, January 4, 2009 6:30 pm Subject: Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009 You might be our first poster from Argentina. Welcome! Are you having a good summer? Your post prompted me to look to see who has the most gold: http://www.globalfirepower.com/list_gold_reserves.asp Maybe I will buy some yuan tomorrow. It would be interesting to see which country has the most gold *including* jewelry. Terry On 1/4/09, Mauro Lacy ma...@lacy.com.ar wrote: Hi All, thanks for the interesting topics and info. As a means of reciprocity, here are some predictions, info, and some opinions. Some are predicting the dollar will end its global status as reserve currency(i.e. the dollar will collapse) this year. See http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8031.html for a very good analysis. Also worth reading is http://caps.fool.com/blogs/viewpost.aspx?bpid=125230t=01000785550515854591 and related links and comments. This comment I'm specially fond of: "A gold backed currency would be a good start toward a sustainable economic model, but if it involves a central bank, then it is doubtful that it will work out in the long run. Politics will drive central banking policies just as they do now. If the central bank allows fractional reserve banking, even with a gold standard, it will still lead to boom and bust cycles in the economy." (first comment in http://seekingalpha.com/article/112731-will-the-new-gcc-single- currency-include-gold) I think there were booms and busts before the creation of central banks. Harry
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
Here's one that is a bit shakey http://io9.com/5122615/yellowstone-due-for-eruption-that-could-obliterate-north-america ... there is a distinction between due and overdue
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
Kyle Mcallister wrote: The same familiar yellow light will rise again in a few more hours, and will do so for 5 billion years to come. I do not think so. In ~4.5 billion years the sun will be a Red Giant, and I think the wavelength and power of the light will change considerably before that. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
The possibility of a supervolcano at Yellowstone may not really be on the time-table for 2009 - but perhaps some high level group should start to prepare for it anyway... (as if the New-Admin did not have enough problems to face already... however, this one puts the economic crisis to shame.) Why should anyone be concerned about a few hundred smallish earthquakes out there in the wilderness? In a word: Toba The Toba catastrophe theory, which is strongly backed by DNA statistics, suggests that a bottleneck in human population occurred 70,000 years ago, proposing that the human population was reduced to about 15,000 individuals or less, scattered into only a few population centers. The theory has many adherents in the science community because DNA analysis is so strong and predictable. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory Imagine the closeness of this very close-call - intelligent life on this planet came ever so close to total extinction - NOT happening at all! Some experts say that the bottleneck pushed populations back to as few as 5,000 scattered to three of four locations... not that 15,000 is all that much easier to digest. The Toba supervolcano was in Sumatra, Indonesia, site of many modern catstrophes and large volcanos, not to mention the giant rat. When it erupted at that fairly recent time - it triggered unimagineable environmental change, exacerbating the ice age perhaps. It was thousands of times more powerful than Mt St Helens, by comparison. The Toba theory is also based on this preserved geological evidences, but the evidences in genes (including mitochondrial DNA, Y-chromosome and nuclear genes) and the relatively low level of genetic variation with humans is very convincing. The gist of it all is that we are all very inbred already and that is why we can pinpoint a single eve even though her ancestors went back at least 2 million years- nevertheless, her mitochondrial DNA is shared by all the women in the world today. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitochondrial_Eve Yikes... and this supervolcano is what's in store assuming we do not suffer a prior catastrophic arctic methane release Makes you realize that there is a good reason for the apparent scarcity of intellignet life across the Universe Jones
RE: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
Interesting... See the list of quakes here: http://www.quake.utah.edu/req2webdir/recenteqs/Maps/Yellowstone.html This looks exactly like what Reno had less than a year ago... I think they called it and eq 'swarm'... Literally hundreds of small eqs per day, with the largest being between 4 and ~4.6; large enough to rock the house pretty good, which is about 5 to 7 miles (as the crow flies) SEast of where the swarm was centered (Verdi/Mogul, Nevada). It was highly unusual that so many eqs occur is such a limited area, perhaps a few sq.km. is all... And the vast majority were quite shallow as well, less than a few km... It occurred over the course of a few weeks and then died out... -Mark -Original Message- From: Jones Beene [mailto:jone...@pacbell.net] Sent: Sunday, January 04, 2009 8:32 AM To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009 The possibility of a supervolcano at Yellowstone may not really be on the time-table for 2009 - but perhaps some high level group should start to prepare for it anyway... (as if the New-Admin did not have enough problems to face already... however, this one puts the economic crisis to shame.) Why should anyone be concerned about a few hundred smallish earthquakes out there in the wilderness? In a word: Toba The Toba catastrophe theory, which is strongly backed by DNA statistics, suggests that a bottleneck in human population occurred 70,000 years ago, proposing that the human population was reduced to about 15,000 individuals or less, scattered into only a few population centers. The theory has many adherents in the science community because DNA analysis is so strong and predictable. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory Imagine the closeness of this very close-call - intelligent life on this planet came ever so close to total extinction - NOT happening at all! Some experts say that the bottleneck pushed populations back to as few as 5,000 scattered to three of four locations... not that 15,000 is all that much easier to digest. The Toba supervolcano was in Sumatra, Indonesia, site of many modern catstrophes and large volcanos, not to mention the giant rat. When it erupted at that fairly recent time - it triggered unimagineable environmental change, exacerbating the ice age perhaps. It was thousands of times more powerful than Mt St Helens, by comparison. The Toba theory is also based on this preserved geological evidences, but the evidences in genes (including mitochondrial DNA, Y-chromosome and nuclear genes) and the relatively low level of genetic variation with humans is very convincing. The gist of it all is that we are all very inbred already and that is why we can pinpoint a single eve even though her ancestors went back at least 2 million years- nevertheless, her mitochondrial DNA is shared by all the women in the world today. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitochondrial_Eve Yikes... and this supervolcano is what's in store assuming we do not suffer a prior catastrophic arctic methane release Makes you realize that there is a good reason for the apparent scarcity of intellignet life across the Universe Jones No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG. Version: 7.5.552 / Virus Database: 270.10.2/1873 - Release Date: 1/3/2009 2:14 PM No virus found in this outgoing message. Checked by AVG. Version: 7.5.552 / Virus Database: 270.10.2/1873 - Release Date: 1/3/2009 2:14 PM
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
I wrote that 19th century Japanese were not surprised to find that poor Americans did as they are told and followed the laws, but they were astounded to see that rich people did not think of themselves as above the law, and were polite to others. I mean they were shocked to find that everyone, rich or poor, followed the rules. In Japan, the rulers made laws for the peasants only, while they themselves did whatever they pleased, and took whatever they wanted. On a whim, they might strip a powerful landowner or businessmen of all his worldly goods, break up his family, and send him to a gulag offshore island. So they got the impression that wealthy and powerful Americans were craven, cowed conformists. So did visiting European nobility. For the same reason, they terribly misinterpreted what Americans considered to be ordinary politeness and fair play. They saw it as a kind of weakness -- kissing up, as it were. They would only bow to someone equal or from a higher social class, whereas Americans would tip their hats to any respectable citizen. They could not understand why powerful people did not always run roughshod over the community and steal everything not nailed down. It was considered the right of powerful people to do that, just as it is today in Russia or North Korea. They visited Congress and saw Democrats and Republicans sitting down at the table after the session and having a grand time, informally joking and laughing as good friends. One of them wrote in his diary that in Japan, the two parties vying for political power at the national level would be trying to kill one another, with swords, yet here they were friends. This seems perfectly natural to us, and to modern Japanese people, but it was an mind-blowing revelation to them. Even today, political rivals and business rivals in Japan seldom communicate. In the U.S. we have thousands of trade associations, trade shows, standards organizations and community organizations in which competitors get together, socialize and agree in various ways. No other society has as many community-oriented cooperative mechanisms as we do. The notion that everyone is bound to the law and that you should not feel free to kill your political rivals was alien, and when you think about it, that really is conformist -- in a good way. Japanese rulers still did not understand U.S. morality 70 years later, which is why they terribly misjudged U.S. diplomatic efforts to avoid war, seeing it as weakness and vacillation. Of course there were plenty of Japanese visitors who learned to appreciate U.S. customs and morality, and adapted it themselves. But unfortunately many of the official visitors who wrote diaries and later framed laws and negotiated war and peace did not. - Jed
RE: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
What's shakin' guys! Following up on what seismologists are calling the Mogul event, see this link for some pics and analysis... http://www.seismo.unr.edu/feature/2008/mogul.html In most of the pics (the first dated November 14, 2008) my house is about a cm from the upper-left corner of the map scale (lower right)! I'm in the foothills and am about 500' above the valley floor... They have concluded that this is not volcanic-related eq activity... If it was, I'd be toast in a matter of seconds anyway if Mogul did blow it's top, and if we just have a major eq in this area, my house will be a pile of sticks! Maybe I should get EQ insurance... One of the interesting pics shows the amt and direction of ground movement; up to 29mm! Pic is titled: GPS Time Series Since 4/26/2008 Looks like the fault may be pretty much along Interstate-80... Too bad this map doesn't show the vertical component of the mvmnt; prob'ly too small to msr. Pic titled: Cumulative Number of Earthquakes is also quite telling of just how quickly this activity escalated. Unfortunately, none of the maps show cumulative Eqs... But it'd be nearly solid yellow for that entire area of mogul. Rock-n-Roll!!! -Mark -Original Message- From: Mark Iverson [mailto:zeropo...@charter.net] Sent: Sunday, January 04, 2009 12:36 PM To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: RE: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009 Interesting... See the list of quakes here: http://www.quake.utah.edu/req2webdir/recenteqs/Maps/Yellowstone.html This looks exactly like what Reno had less than a year ago... I think they called it and eq 'swarm'... Literally hundreds of small eqs per day, with the largest being between 4 and ~4.6; large enough to rock the house pretty good, which is about 5 to 7 miles (as the crow flies) SEast of where the swarm was centered (Verdi/Mogul, Nevada). It was highly unusual that so many eqs occur is such a limited area, perhaps a few sq.km. is all... And the vast majority were quite shallow as well, less than a few km... It occurred over the course of a few weeks and then died out... -Mark -Original Message- From: Jones Beene [mailto:jone...@pacbell.net] Sent: Sunday, January 04, 2009 8:32 AM To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009 The possibility of a supervolcano at Yellowstone may not really be on the time-table for 2009 - but perhaps some high level group should start to prepare for it anyway... (as if the New-Admin did not have enough problems to face already... however, this one puts the economic crisis to shame.) Why should anyone be concerned about a few hundred smallish earthquakes out there in the wilderness? In a word: Toba The Toba catastrophe theory, which is strongly backed by DNA statistics, suggests that a bottleneck in human population occurred 70,000 years ago, proposing that the human population was reduced to about 15,000 individuals or less, scattered into only a few population centers. The theory has many adherents in the science community because DNA analysis is so strong and predictable. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory Imagine the closeness of this very close-call - intelligent life on this planet came ever so close to total extinction - NOT happening at all! Some experts say that the bottleneck pushed populations back to as few as 5,000 scattered to three of four locations... not that 15,000 is all that much easier to digest. The Toba supervolcano was in Sumatra, Indonesia, site of many modern catstrophes and large volcanos, not to mention the giant rat. When it erupted at that fairly recent time - it triggered unimagineable environmental change, exacerbating the ice age perhaps. It was thousands of times more powerful than Mt St Helens, by comparison. The Toba theory is also based on this preserved geological evidences, but the evidences in genes (including mitochondrial DNA, Y-chromosome and nuclear genes) and the relatively low level of genetic variation with humans is very convincing. The gist of it all is that we are all very inbred already and that is why we can pinpoint a single eve even though her ancestors went back at least 2 million years- nevertheless, her mitochondrial DNA is shared by all the women in the world today. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitochondrial_Eve Yikes... and this supervolcano is what's in store assuming we do not suffer a prior catastrophic arctic methane release Makes you realize that there is a good reason for the apparent scarcity of intellignet life across the Universe Jones No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG. Version: 7.5.552 / Virus Database: 270.10.2/1873 - Release Date: 1/3/2009 2:14 PM No virus found in this outgoing message. Checked by AVG. Version: 7.5.552 / Virus Database: 270.10.2/1873 - Release Date: 1/3/2009 2:14 PM No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG. Version: 7.5.552 / Virus Database: 270.10.2/1873 - Release Date
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
Hi All, thanks for the interesting topics and info. As a means of reciprocity, here are some predictions, info, and some opinions. Some are predicting the dollar will end its global status as reserve currency(i.e. the dollar will collapse) this year. See http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8031.html for a very good analysis. Also worth reading is http://caps.fool.com/blogs/viewpost.aspx?bpid=125230t=01000785550515854591 and related links and comments. This comment I'm specially fond of: A gold backed currency would be a good start toward a sustainable economic model, but if it involves a central bank, then it is doubtful that it will work out in the long run. Politics will drive central banking policies just as they do now. If the central bank allows fractional reserve banking, even with a gold standard, it will still lead to boom and bust cycles in the economy. (first comment in http://seekingalpha.com/article/112731-will-the-new-gcc-single-currency-include-gold) It seems Planet X/Binary Sun companion as been found! See http://www.metaresearch.org/msgboard/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=770whichpage=1 for an very interesting and entertaining(also extense) reading. The last posts (page 28) contains photos of Barbarossa and associated system. (see RA data in page 27) It's interesting not only for the discovery itself, but also because, if true, will cast serious doubts on the validity of Relativity Theory. In Joe Keller's own words: The Cosmic Microwave Background often is cited as the main evidence for the Big Bang, and moreover for the orthodox version of General Relativistic cosmology. So, if the CMB dipole were proven to be almost perfectly aligned with a massive solar system body, a psychological door would be opened for questioning other facets of orthodox Relativity theory. I don't think Yellowstone will erupt this year. I do think that a dollar collapse will have huge implications. Economic, political, and social. And they will be global. I don't think a new theory will supersede/obsolete Relativity theory(not yet, not in 2009). The issue with cold fusion(and many other related aspects), in my humble opinion, seems to be that it forms part of bigger issues that are not clearly understood at the moment, and that involve the degree of development of the human being in itself. What seems to be escaping from replication, consolidation, comprehension, stabilization, formalization, etc. are issues that are at the core of our human evolution as (partly) physical beings. With the relationship between our physical and spiritual beings(higher dimensions, anyone?) being completely understood, we will be able not only to produce and control nuclear fusion, but to modify, dissolve, form and conform matter at will, and all this without help from machines and/or equipment. Several millennia will be needed for this to be a reality, if you want a timed prediction. Best regards, M Horace Heffner wrote: Richard has asked for predictions for 2009. My prediction for 2009 is that a common thread for the year will be the failure to predict. Prophesies with durations of days, weeks, months, and years will fail in unusual abundance. False prophets will abound, especially in the financial realm. I think it is clear to many people that we are in a regime of instability, financially, socially, and environmentally. The lesson to be taken from this is to prepare as best as possible for all contingencies. This is always good advice, but more so than ever in a time of instability. Prepare to take care of yourself and family, and beyond that your extended family and even neighbors if possible, in the event of major disruptions. The best investment a person can make is 6 months or more worth of food and a means to cook it. This can be done fairly inexpensively using whole grains, dried foods, vitamins, and possibly some canned goods. My prediction is it will be a comfort knowing you can eat for a while if the worst happens, and that at for at least for some increment of time you will not be a burden on your family, neighbors and society in a time of great need. Make a plan. Consider what you will need in various scenarios. Best regards, Horace Heffner http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
You might be our first poster from Argentina. Welcome! Are you having a good summer? Your post prompted me to look to see who has the most gold: http://www.globalfirepower.com/list_gold_reserves.asp Maybe I will buy some yuan tomorrow. It would be interesting to see which country has the most gold *including* jewelry. Terry On 1/4/09, Mauro Lacy ma...@lacy.com.ar wrote: Hi All, thanks for the interesting topics and info. As a means of reciprocity, here are some predictions, info, and some opinions. Some are predicting the dollar will end its global status as reserve currency(i.e. the dollar will collapse) this year. See http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8031.html for a very good analysis. Also worth reading is http://caps.fool.com/blogs/viewpost.aspx?bpid=125230t=01000785550515854591 and related links and comments. This comment I'm specially fond of: A gold backed currency would be a good start toward a sustainable economic model, but if it involves a central bank, then it is doubtful that it will work out in the long run. Politics will drive central banking policies just as they do now. If the central bank allows fractional reserve banking, even with a gold standard, it will still lead to boom and bust cycles in the economy. (first comment in http://seekingalpha.com/article/112731-will-the-new-gcc-single-currency-include-gold) It seems Planet X/Binary Sun companion as been found! See http://www.metaresearch.org/msgboard/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=770whichpage=1 for an very interesting and entertaining(also extense) reading. The last posts (page 28) contains photos of Barbarossa and associated system. (see RA data in page 27) It's interesting not only for the discovery itself, but also because, if true, will cast serious doubts on the validity of Relativity Theory. In Joe Keller's own words: The Cosmic Microwave Background often is cited as the main evidence for the Big Bang, and moreover for the orthodox version of General Relativistic cosmology. So, if the CMB dipole were proven to be almost perfectly aligned with a massive solar system body, a psychological door would be opened for questioning other facets of orthodox Relativity theory. I don't think Yellowstone will erupt this year. I do think that a dollar collapse will have huge implications. Economic, political, and social. And they will be global. I don't think a new theory will supersede/obsolete Relativity theory(not yet, not in 2009). The issue with cold fusion(and many other related aspects), in my humble opinion, seems to be that it forms part of bigger issues that are not clearly understood at the moment, and that involve the degree of development of the human being in itself. What seems to be escaping from replication, consolidation, comprehension, stabilization, formalization, etc. are issues that are at the core of our human evolution as (partly) physical beings. With the relationship between our physical and spiritual beings(higher dimensions, anyone?) being completely understood, we will be able not only to produce and control nuclear fusion, but to modify, dissolve, form and conform matter at will, and all this without help from machines and/or equipment. Several millennia will be needed for this to be a reality, if you want a timed prediction. Best regards, M Horace Heffner wrote: Richard has asked for predictions for 2009. My prediction for 2009 is that a common thread for the year will be the failure to predict. Prophesies with durations of days, weeks, months, and years will fail in unusual abundance. False prophets will abound, especially in the financial realm. I think it is clear to many people that we are in a regime of instability, financially, socially, and environmentally. The lesson to be taken from this is to prepare as best as possible for all contingencies. This is always good advice, but more so than ever in a time of instability. Prepare to take care of yourself and family, and beyond that your extended family and even neighbors if possible, in the event of major disruptions. The best investment a person can make is 6 months or more worth of food and a means to cook it. This can be done fairly inexpensively using whole grains, dried foods, vitamins, and possibly some canned goods. My prediction is it will be a comfort knowing you can eat for a while if the worst happens, and that at for at least for some increment of time you will not be a burden on your family, neighbors and society in a time of great need. Make a plan. Consider what you will need in various scenarios. Best regards, Horace Heffner http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
Terry Blanton wrote: You might be our first poster from Argentina. Welcome! Are you having a good summer? Thank you. Yes indeed, we have a beautiful summer here right now. Your post prompted me to look to see who has the most gold: http://www.globalfirepower.com/list_gold_reserves.asp Interesting. I didn't know that. I'm not sure to what extent the correlation between a country's gold reserves and the strength of their currency is a valid one. Even in a monetary system backed by gold. Monetary policy should prevail to gold availabitity, so to speak. I'm also not sure about how the gold reserves of a given country can affect the value and stability of another country's (gold backed) currency. Food for thought, I'll think/investigate about that. Take into account that, independently of the fact that a currency is backed by gold or not, what really makes a currency strong are the fundamentals of the economy or economies in which that currency operates. Currencies are means of exchange of goods and services, and do not (should not) have value by themselves, but by whatever goods and services can be exchanged by them (including gold). Indeed, this is the crux of the matter regarding currencies and monies: that actually they are meant to hold and produce value by themselves(by yielding interest) instead of being simple means of exchange of goods. Money has lost its original /reason d'etre/, that was that of a facilitator of exchange of goods, to actually be a holder(and a producer) of value. If you are interested in this very crucial matter, I recommend you to read the essays of Charles Eisenstein http://www.ascentofhumanity.com, in particular, Money, a new beginning http://www.realitysandwich.com/money_a_new_beginning, where he discusses a different form of money which does not yield interest(does not increases over time), but much to the contrary, diminishes its value over time. A kind of negative interest rate. Which is to say, a kind of tax on the delay in circulating money; which is called demurrage. This form of depreciation is related to the very fact that the vast majority of goods diminishes its value(they rot, decompose, break, deteriorate, etc.) over time. Money should be no exception. Better said, if money is the exception to that, things like the actual economic crisis inevitably happen from time to time(because the amount of money increases exponentially over time due to interest yields, and the amount of goods and services don't. See also, if you like, Money and the Crisis of Civilization http://www.realitysandwich.com/money_and_crisis_civilization) Maybe I will buy some yuan tomorrow. It would be interesting to see which country has the most gold *including* jewelry. Terry On 1/4/09, Mauro Lacy ma...@lacy.com.ar wrote: Hi All, thanks for the interesting topics and info. As a means of reciprocity, here are some predictions, info, and some opinions. Some are predicting the dollar will end its global status as reserve currency(i.e. the dollar will collapse) this year. See http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8031.html for a very good analysis. Also worth reading is http://caps.fool.com/blogs/viewpost.aspx?bpid=125230t=01000785550515854591 and related links and comments. This comment I'm specially fond of: A gold backed currency would be a good start toward a sustainable economic model, but if it involves a central bank, then it is doubtful that it will work out in the long run. Politics will drive central banking policies just as they do now. If the central bank allows fractional reserve banking, even with a gold standard, it will still lead to boom and bust cycles in the economy. (first comment in http://seekingalpha.com/article/112731-will-the-new-gcc-single-currency-include-gold) It seems Planet X/Binary Sun companion as been found! See http://www.metaresearch.org/msgboard/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=770whichpage=1 for an very interesting and entertaining(also extense) reading. The last posts (page 28) contains photos of Barbarossa and associated system. (see RA data in page 27) It's interesting not only for the discovery itself, but also because, if true, will cast serious doubts on the validity of Relativity Theory. In Joe Keller's own words: The Cosmic Microwave Background often is cited as the main evidence for the Big Bang, and moreover for the orthodox version of General Relativistic cosmology. So, if the CMB dipole were proven to be almost perfectly aligned with a massive solar system body, a psychological door would be opened for questioning other facets of orthodox Relativity theory. I don't think Yellowstone will erupt this year. I do think that a dollar collapse will have huge implications. Economic, political, and social. And they will be global. I don't think a new theory will supersede/obsolete Relativity theory(not yet, not in 2009). The issue with cold fusion(and many other related aspects), in my humble
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
Hmmm. Considering that for the time period between Christmas and New Years, that the following took place at my home: 1. Freak high-velocity winds took the shingles off my carport. 2. I got the flu. 3. Someone stole my garbage can (not the wind, the winds were dead calm that day.) 4. I discovered that with favorable (!) winds, you can shovel the same snow out of your driveway 5 times. 5. Was cussed out by my boss for the heinous and evil deed of helping get someone unstuck from the snowy slush in our shop's parking lot (because da boss didn't want to snowplow) 6. A faulty photocell caused my furnace to quit on New Years Day, several hours before anyone was awake. Once started, the hydronic radiator supply line was frozen, due to it being 7F outside, and that the line was located next to the cat door, which somehow one of our cats, or possibly a raccoon, removed. The door ain't been found, either. A blow torch solved this, eventually. (the pipe, not the cat.) 7. Upon hitting a pothole in The Land of Taxes (NY State), the coil spring seat for my car's R/F strut broke. 8. Got the flu back, after messing around in the cold with all this whatnot. So yeah, '09 isn't looking too charming at this point. No, but seriously. I have no idea. All I will say is, there is a lot of hope and potential, but the human race has a tendency to waste opportunities, and pave them over with good intentions, thus furthering construction of the Highway to Hell. The same earth is still in the ground. The same air is still here. The same snow is still on the ground outside, each crystalline bit glittering as the luminous melody of distant streetlights, moonlight, and skyshine catches it in the right way, allowing it to provoke something of a profound feeling in even so jaded an individual as myself. The same people I love are still near to me. The same familiar yellow light will rise again in a few more hours, and will do so for 5 billion years to come. The same hope and possibility exists today, as it did yesterday, if only we would take it. The same constants of nature still exist, that bind matter together, that make molecular machines such as ourselves possible. And yet we concern ourselves so, build our lives around, dictate our actions by, and all too often harm one another... ...based only on a few jots of numbers, which exist only on paper. --Kyle
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
I agree with the Hef, however I myself am immune from this prophecy, as I will be always accurate! COME! flock to me, and I shall show you the way. (make your deposit to our fund at the door. Visa, MC, AMEX all accepted. ) On Fri, Jan 2, 2009 at 1:40 PM, Horace Heffner hheff...@mtaonline.net wrote: Richard has asked for predictions for 2009. My prediction for 2009 is that a common thread for the year will be the failure to predict. Prophesies with durations of days, weeks, months, and years will fail in unusual abundance. False prophets will abound, especially in the financial realm. I think it is clear to many people that we are in a regime of instability, financially, socially, and environmentally. The lesson to be taken from this is to prepare as best as possible for all contingencies. This is always good advice, but more so than ever in a time of instability. Prepare to take care of yourself and family, and beyond that your extended family and even neighbors if possible, in the event of major disruptions. The best investment a person can make is 6 months or more worth of food and a means to cook it. This can be done fairly inexpensively using whole grains, dried foods, vitamins, and possibly some canned goods. My prediction is it will be a comfort knowing you can eat for a while if the worst happens, and that at for at least for some increment of time you will not be a burden on your family, neighbors and society in a time of great need. Make a plan. Consider what you will need in various scenarios. Best regards, Horace Heffner http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
Horace Heffner wrote: The lesson to be taken from this is to prepare as best as possible for all contingencies. This is always good advice, but more so than ever in a time of instability. Prepare to take care of yourself and family, and beyond that your extended family and even neighbors if possible, in the event of major disruptions. I see no point preparing for such drastic disruptions. I think a person should prepare for likely disruptions that an ordinary person can hope to deal with, such as being fired from work. In other words if I were living close to the edge financially, I would put more money in the bank, renegotiate the mortgage before I get into trouble, and cancel unnecessary luxuries. If you do lose your job, it would be a good idea to buy a large sack of rice. But there is no way to protect against a situation in which rice becomes unavailable in the US, and that is extremely unlikely to happen. If the situation becomes so drastic that there are food shortages, an ordinary urban American would be helpless. People living in the countryside could plant vegetable gardens. That might not be a bad idea, even now. Along the same lines, a prudent person with family responsibilities should be prepared to be killed at any time, in an auto accident, for example. You should buy life insurance. But if there is an outbreak of bird influenza that kills millions of people, obviously the life insurance companies will all go bankrupt. In that case you will probably die and if anyone in your family survives, they will be destitute. But so will millions of other survivors. Society will surely reorganize and take care of them. So there is no point to trying to find an individual solution to this potential catastrophe. Frankly, I think it is better to plan for success and to work toward success rather than toward failure, or to plan with the assumption that we will fail. That's why I favor trying to make cold fusion work, rather than trying to narrow our horizons and make people live with 18th century levels of energy consumption. I favor direct, vigorous action that fixes problems, rather than living with problems, working around them, or merely surviving them. I refer to FDR's words: We do not distrust the future of essential democracy. The people of the United States have not failed. In their need they have registered a mandate that they want direct, vigorous action. They have asked for discipline and direction under leadership. No one should distrust the future of essential democracy, or doubt the will, skill and bravery of the U.S. population. People who have done that in the past, such as the Confederate Army and the Imperial Japanese Navy, lost decisively. That is something that Obama and I agree on 100%. I am very pleased to hear it from an American politician. No you can't is the wrong message, to the wrong people, as history has shown time after time over the last 400 years. McCain lost the election with his negativity, such as when he famously said: Now, my friends, I'll offer anybody here fifty dollars an hour if you'll go pick lettuce in Yuma this season and pick for the whole season. So, ok, sign up! Ok, when you sign up, you sign up, and you'll be there for the whole season, the whole season, ok, not just one day. Because you can't do it, my friend. Anyone who bets against us -- or against science, technology and progress, as the Luddites and anti-evolutionists are wont to do -- is betting on the wrong horse. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Predictions for 2009
As bad as I hate to admit it :-) I agree with JR. Terry On 1/2/09, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: Horace Heffner wrote: The lesson to be taken from this is to prepare as best as possible for all contingencies. This is always good advice, but more so than ever in a time of instability. Prepare to take care of yourself and family, and beyond that your extended family and even neighbors if possible, in the event of major disruptions. I see no point preparing for such drastic disruptions. I think a person should prepare for likely disruptions that an ordinary person can hope to deal with, such as being fired from work. In other words if I were living close to the edge financially, I would put more money in the bank, renegotiate the mortgage before I get into trouble, and cancel unnecessary luxuries. If you do lose your job, it would be a good idea to buy a large sack of rice. But there is no way to protect against a situation in which rice becomes unavailable in the US, and that is extremely unlikely to happen. If the situation becomes so drastic that there are food shortages, an ordinary urban American would be helpless. People living in the countryside could plant vegetable gardens. That might not be a bad idea, even now. Along the same lines, a prudent person with family responsibilities should be prepared to be killed at any time, in an auto accident, for example. You should buy life insurance. But if there is an outbreak of bird influenza that kills millions of people, obviously the life insurance companies will all go bankrupt. In that case you will probably die and if anyone in your family survives, they will be destitute. But so will millions of other survivors. Society will surely reorganize and take care of them. So there is no point to trying to find an individual solution to this potential catastrophe. Frankly, I think it is better to plan for success and to work toward success rather than toward failure, or to plan with the assumption that we will fail. That's why I favor trying to make cold fusion work, rather than trying to narrow our horizons and make people live with 18th century levels of energy consumption. I favor direct, vigorous action that fixes problems, rather than living with problems, working around them, or merely surviving them. I refer to FDR's words: We do not distrust the future of essential democracy. The people of the United States have not failed. In their need they have registered a mandate that they want direct, vigorous action. They have asked for discipline and direction under leadership. No one should distrust the future of essential democracy, or doubt the will, skill and bravery of the U.S. population. People who have done that in the past, such as the Confederate Army and the Imperial Japanese Navy, lost decisively. That is something that Obama and I agree on 100%. I am very pleased to hear it from an American politician. No you can't is the wrong message, to the wrong people, as history has shown time after time over the last 400 years. McCain lost the election with his negativity, such as when he famously said: Now, my friends, I'll offer anybody here fifty dollars an hour if you'll go pick lettuce in Yuma this season and pick for the whole season. So, ok, sign up! Ok, when you sign up, you sign up, and you'll be there for the whole season, the whole season, ok, not just one day. Because you can't do it, my friend. Anyone who bets against us -- or against science, technology and progress, as the Luddites and anti-evolutionists are wont to do -- is betting on the wrong horse. - Jed
