Re: Iran
- Original Message - From: Dan M dsummersmi...@comcast.net To: 'Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion' brin-l@mccmedia.com Sent: Saturday, June 27, 2009 5:15 PM Subject: RE: Iran Reports from inside Iran say the Guard is split and mostly inactive. The Army is similarly. The police have been ineffective because they won't shoot their own countrymen. That is why most of the violence has been committed by Basiji and Arab imports (such as Hezbollah and some Afghan Taliban with possibly some Russians thrown in according to rumor) Many of the people committing violence are non-Farsi speakers and that is a solid indictment of the gravity of the situation. I'm curious to see where you stand now. I read your source, I think at this point we must both recognize that we both access several sources not noted in our discussion, and that the overall situation is much more complex than we are describing. I mention this because I believe we need to broaden the terms of the discussion a bit if either of us are to make arguments that give sensible predictions. I think most people would like to know what is coming from Iran over the next few years as recent events there could destabilize the local equilibrium. and realize that info coming from the country has been really cut backso there is a lot more speculation than fact in the outside world. Media info is cut back dramatically, but there is still a lot, a whole lot, of lower quality information sneaking out. There is still a fair bit of higher quality info coming from Iran, just not from media outlets. I know the Rand Corporation thinks the Revolutionary Guard is the big winner in this http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/06/22/RC.html Interesting article, and probably accurate in some particulars, but I think it misses some crucial points. The group that has gained the greatest enhancement is the Basiji (your brownshirts). They have carried the load in the suppression (as semi-official and sanctioned enforcers) and (it seems to me) to be the locus of the increase in outright fascism in Iran. At this point Iran has to be defined as a fascist state on par with the WW2 fascists. This is a grave concern for reasons I think most of us already recognize. Even with reporters locked up in their hotel rooms, I would guess than marches of tens of thousands would be heard in the hotels. The types of reports that are getting out indicate that, if anything, the younger more militant aspects of the guard are increasing their power. (I'm thinking of the folks who captured a UK ship as an example). I would expect that the key to recognizing a nearby demonstration would not be the sounds made by protestors, but the sounds of gunfire from those supressing the protestors. Currently, I don't think there are any demonstrations that have 10K protesting, but there may occasionally still be 1K or 2K out on the street (max). Amedinajad is pretty much irrelevant ATM. He may be a figurehead for the younger more militant guard members and their brownshirt auxillary. Here we disagree. And what we disagree about is who Amadinajad fronts for. I contest that he is a schill for Khamenei. Further, I believe that the entire point of the clampdown is so that Khamenei can ensure that his son becomes the next Supreme Leader. Amadinajad is constitutionally prevented from serving as president after the upcoming term ends. I see three potential events coming. The constitution is changed to eradicate the term limits, the law is changed so that Prime Minister once again becomes the important position it once was with Amadinijad locked in, or Khamenei grooms someone equally pliable as the next president. It is really all about Khamenei and his scoin maintaining power. A national strike is being called (starting today). How that goes will determine the course and success of this revolt. From what I read, folks will have a hard time not working and not getting paid at all. With unemployment at 25%, and virtually all money coming from oil sales, and with everything government subsidized, the government has a lot of power. Again, I'll agree that we are working on minimal information, but I haven't been able to see a good source since Monday that indicates that the reform is gaining a foothold. If anything, its falling back. Agreed. Iranians seem to have had no stomach for a general strike. I think they would like to, but the reality on the ground is not conducive to an action that would entail incredible sacrifice and an obvious hardship on all. (I'm guessing it generally works this way in fascist countries?) It reminds me of the USSR in the '70s, when my friend from Moscow said folks became disillusioned. I don't doubt that in two decades, we could see reform. But, in between, the odds are that the younger more militant members of the Republican guard are the most likely to have
Green Brief 11
For those who are interested: http://iran.whyweprotest.net/news-current-events/3127-green-brief-11-a.html I'm NiteOwl AKA Josh Shahryar - twitter.com/iran_translator on twitter - and I've been immersed in tweets from Iran for the past several hours. I have tried to be extremely careful in choosing my tweet sources. What I have compiled below is what I can confirm through my reliable twitter sources. Remember, this is all from tweets. No news media outlets have been used. (All my work is released under Creative Commons (CC). You can freely use it and repost it wherever you'd like to. Just provide a link to the original source at the bottom.) These are the important happenings that I can positively confirm from Saturday, June 27 in Iran. 1. Mousavi has rejected the Guardian Council's decision to look into discrepancies in only 10% of the vote. Mousavi has said that as he mentioned in two letters before to the GC, there are simply far too many irregularities for them to accept the election. A new one must be held in order to give people their voice back. 2. A prominent supporter of Mousavi was forced to confess on national TV that protests were pre-planned and that they have broken laws. However, reports strongly indicate that the media had already pre-written the statements because they sounded far more official than a speaker can come up with impromptu. More and more protesters are being prepped through intimidation and torture to make confessions. 3. Iran's paramilitary Basij are carrying out brutal nighttime raids, destroying property in private homes and beating civilians in an attempt to stop nightly protest chants, Human Rights Watch said today. Human Rights Watch also said the Iranian authorities are confiscating satellite dishes from private homes to prevent citizens from seeing foreign news. 4. Ahmadinejad warned the US of repercussions if it continues to meddle in Iranian affairs. He also sent out a message to the people saying that the days of liberal democracy were over. (In the sense that no more reform and change against Islamic law will be allowed to take place.) He warned that in the next 4 years he will take a tougher approach. This happens while Ahmadinejad's first deputy, Parviz Davoudi, was denied a US visa by the US State Department. Iranian ambassador to the UN blamed the US government for it. 5. At the same time, a government spokesperson blatantly accused other countries of meddling in Iranian affairs and instigating the current protests and violence. Fatemeh Rajabi, spokesperson symbol of women in Ahmadinazhad's government in a separate statement also called Mousavi and Khatami the faces of corruption in the country. 6. The Guardian Council commission on investigating 10% of the vote was rejected by Mousavi today. He said that 10% was not enough and the elections have to be annulled. He added that an impartial commission should be set up to help arbitrate the issue. The other two candidates also didn't send representatives to the commission. This is after the commission was criticized by others - including a prominent MP and Mahdi Karoubi - for being too one-sided and the investigation of irregularities in only 10% of the vote insufficient. This is while the GC yet again called the elections the 'best in Iran's history so far'. 7. Javan newspaper - which is closely linked to the IRG - has reported that instigators of violence and the forces behind the protests have been identified. According to Javan, a group of actors were involved and this group created flyers and statements! It accused these individuals - 15-20 people according to Javan - of hiring thugs and distributing weapons that were used in violence. It also reported the arrest of three prominent Iranian film personalities. 8. Tehran's district attorney stated that he didn’t know how many people have been arrested so far but that he had met several at Evin Prison. The detainees are continuously under mental sometimes physical torture. IRNA reported that Iran banned Mousavi’s ally Abolfazl Fateh from leaving the country. It is being reported that it's possible that the fate of the people that have been arrested would be known by the end of the week. The name of the girl who was shot in Baharestan and died later in the hospital is reportedly Sheler Khezri. 9. Amnesty International confirms on CNN: people disappearing from hospitals. Hundreds of people missing. Amnesty International asked the Iranian authorities to immediately release dozens of journalists who are at risk of torture in detention. The UN also asked the government to prevent further violence and bloodshed. More people were arrested today including journalists and bloggers as well as other people of some clout in the Iranian society. Karoubi's newspaper, Etemade Melli's chief editor was asked to appear before a court. 10. Today a group of people including women's rights activists
Re: Iran
On 28/06/2009, at 8:15 AM, Dan M wrote: Even with reporters locked up in their hotel rooms, I would guess than marches of tens of thousands would be heard in the hotels. The types of reports that are getting out indicate that, if anything, the younger more militant aspects of the guard are increasing their power. (I'm thinking of the folks who captured a UK ship as an example). Um... a ship? Do you mean the Marines patrol boat a couple of years ago? Wasn't a ship. C. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Iran
Original Message: - From: Charlie Bell char...@culturelist.org Date: Sun, 28 Jun 2009 12:10:27 +1000 To: brin-l@mccmedia.com Subject: Re: Iran On 28/06/2009, at 8:15 AM, Dan M wrote: Even with reporters locked up in their hotel rooms, I would guess than marches of tens of thousands would be heard in the hotels. The types of reports that are getting out indicate that, if anything, the younger more militant aspects of the guard are increasing their power. (I'm thinking of the folks who captured a UK ship as an example). Um... a ship? Do you mean the Marines patrol boat a couple of years ago? Wasn't a ship. Sorry Charlie. You have to remember that, when I was I kid I was on many a boat longer than 200 meters, with the biggest over 300 meters and 30k tons. I realize that it wasn't a big ship, but the way I was raised: saltwater=ship, freshwater=boat. Size didn't matter. But that's what I meant, yea. Even in Britian you might have heard the song the Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald. I was on the Mighty Fitz a number of times and can still close my eyes amd remember the smell of those boats. Dan M. mail2web - Check your email from the web at http://link.mail2web.com/mail2web ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Iran
On 28/06/2009, at 1:25 PM, dsummersmi...@comcast.net wrote: Um... a ship? Do you mean the Marines patrol boat a couple of years ago? Wasn't a ship. Sorry Charlie. You have to remember that, when I was I kid I was on many a boat longer than 200 meters, with the biggest over 300 meters and 30k tons. I realize that it wasn't a big ship, but the way I was raised: saltwater=ship, freshwater=boat. Size didn't matter. It's not size, it's type. Submarines are boats... (they're also it, not she to anyone who's not actually a submariner). :-) Sure, it's probably a regional usage difference (like LEFT-enant in Britain and Australia), but a patrol craft, a fast-attack craft (like the couple of hydrofoils with guns we've had over the years) or a merchant vessel with only 15 or so crew is usually a boat if you're talking about a British vessel. C. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Ribbit.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/earth_news/newsid_8116000/8116692.stm ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
