> Reports from inside Iran say the Guard is split and mostly inactive. The > Army is similarly. The police have been ineffective because they won't > shoot their own countrymen. That is why most of the violence has been > committed by Basiji and Arab imports (such as Hezbollah and some Afghan > Taliban with possibly some Russians thrown in according to rumor) Many of > the people committing violence are non-Farsi speakers and that is a solid > indictment of the gravity of the situation.
I'm curious to see where you stand now. I read your source, and realize that info coming from the country has been really cut back....so there is a lot more speculation than fact in the outside world. I know the Rand Corporation thinks the Revolutionary Guard is the big winner in this http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/06/22/RC.html Even with reporters locked up in their hotel rooms, I would guess than marches of tens of thousands would be heard in the hotels. The types of reports that are getting out indicate that, if anything, the younger more militant aspects of the guard are increasing their power. (I'm thinking of the folks who captured a UK ship as an example). > Amedinajad is pretty much irrelevant ATM. He may be a figurehead for the younger more militant guard members and their brownshirt auxillary. > > A national strike is being called (starting today). How that goes will > determine the course and success of this revolt. > >From what I read, folks will have a hard time not working and not getting paid at all. With unemployment at 25%, and virtually all money coming from oil sales, and with everything government subsidized, the government has a lot of power. Again, I'll agree that we are working on minimal information, but I haven't been able to see a good source since Monday that indicates that the reform is gaining a foothold. If anything, its falling back. It reminds me of the USSR in the '70s, when my friend from Moscow said folks became disillusioned. I don't doubt that in two decades, we could see reform. But, in between, the odds are that the younger more militant members of the Republican guard are the most likely to have increasing influence. And, with predictions of Iran having the capacity for an A-bomb within a year, we will probably have tough sledding there for the next decade. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
