Re: Obama II

2014-03-02 Thread Doug Pensinger
Actually,  bugs/design flaws caught during the design phase cost far less
than those discovered during the build.

Doug
GSV Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
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RE: Obama II

2012-11-17 Thread Dan Minette
 
 However, the best bugs are introduced during programming, but much
 earlier. Catching bugs at the earliest possible time is expensive, but
 the ROI is immense and outweighs the cost by several orders of
 magnitude. Of course, any manager who was reading this dropped out at
 the word expensive, so defective software will remain the standard.

You know that, in over 30 years of programming, I never really had those
types of bugs that become features in software.  But, I'm very unusual, I
program as a means of thinking out the physics of the problem I'm trying to
solve.  In other words, I write software, where the previous generation, or
even physicists 5 years ahead of me, would work things on on paper.

I recall, back in '81, patientily listening to a post doc explaining how to
do the error anaysis of my data.  I patiently listened to him, he knew more
than I did on most things and had earned my respect, until there was a
pause.  

I then asked him, but isn't this just an approximation, wouldn't running a
Monte Carlo to get the error be more accurate.

He said yes, but do you have any idea how much it would cost to do a Monte
Carlo error analysis?

I said yes, $0.27.  I did it this morning.

He looked at me, and said grad. students have it too easy these days, and I
left his office

The moral of the story is that if you think carfully about what questions
you ask early, and your job title allows you to do that (as someone who is
expected to come up with inventions that solve problems, you get some
leeway...especially if you have a PhD in physicsit may not be fair that
we get more leeway, but it's my experience), then you can have software that
actually basically works the first time it is tried with a real tool.  I've
twice had the experience of well we'll try this, but we'll have to get back
to you when it fails  and me saying but, I've tested it pretty extensively
on data in post processing mode, if the same data is in the tool, I'll have
failure modes with unusual data, but it should generally work and having it
work first time in the tool.

Dan M.



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Re: Obama II

2012-11-12 Thread ALBERTO VIEIRA FERREIRA MONTEIRO
Bryon Daly wrote:

 Further, as a Mormon, Romney doesn't quite pass the WASP test so he
 basically had to tack hard right to build up his conservative cred to get
 the party nomination.

Ugh. Mormons have taken control of the Internet (by Facebook). I'm
glad they didn't take control of the USA too.

Alberto Monteiro the paranoid

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Re: Obama II

2012-11-12 Thread Klaus Stock
 I know as a fact that the Defense Department said they
 would require that all programming for applications they used would have to
 be done in Ada (I think within 5 years) because Ada was a compiler that
 automatically eliminated bugs.

AFAIK, the Ada compiler can detect many programmer mistakes at compile
time. Of course, one might say that Ada that's mainly because Ada
imposes so many restrictions on the programmer that the chance to make
mistakes is greatly increased (compared to more relaxed languages,
which do, for example, implicit type conversion). Ada also supports
run-time-checks - which detects bugs when it's already too late (or
may even cause bugs in extreme cases).

Compared to other languages of the time, like Fortran, it's clearly
superior in detecting some classes of bugs early. It also reduces the
programmer's efficiency, resulting the number of bugs per time compare
to more efficient languages.

However, the best bugs are introduced during programming, but much
earlier. Catching bugs at the earliest possible time is expensive, but
the ROI is immense and outweighs the cost by several orders of
magnitude. Of course, any manager who was reading this dropped out at
the word expensive, so defective software will remain the standard.


Okay, the word standard reminds to get back on-topic. I suspect that
the reason for the choice of Ada was that Ada was the first
standardized HL programming language. Oh, the military loves
standards. No further explanation necessary.

Best regards, Klaus


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RE: Obama II

2012-11-12 Thread Pat Mathews

This plays into some recent conversations about efficiency vs resilience.

 Date: Mon, 12 Nov 2012 20:06:16 +0100
 From: k...@stock-consulting.com
 To: brin-l@mccmedia.com
 Subject: Re: Obama II
 
  I know as a fact that the Defense Department said they
  would require that all programming for applications they used would have to
  be done in Ada (I think within 5 years) because Ada was a compiler that
  automatically eliminated bugs.
 
 AFAIK, the Ada compiler can detect many programmer mistakes at compile
 time. Of course, one might say that Ada that's mainly because Ada
 imposes so many restrictions on the programmer that the chance to make
 mistakes is greatly increased (compared to more relaxed languages,
 which do, for example, implicit type conversion). Ada also supports
 run-time-checks - which detects bugs when it's already too late (or
 may even cause bugs in extreme cases).
 
 Compared to other languages of the time, like Fortran, it's clearly
 superior in detecting some classes of bugs early. It also reduces the
 programmer's efficiency, resulting the number of bugs per time compare
 to more efficient languages.
 
 However, the best bugs are introduced during programming, but much
 earlier. Catching bugs at the earliest possible time is expensive, but
 the ROI is immense and outweighs the cost by several orders of
 magnitude. Of course, any manager who was reading this dropped out at
 the word expensive, so defective software will remain the standard.
 
 
 Okay, the word standard reminds to get back on-topic. I suspect that
 the reason for the choice of Ada was that Ada was the first
 standardized HL programming language. Oh, the military loves
 standards. No further explanation necessary.
 
 Best regards, Klaus
 
 
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Re: Obama II

2012-11-12 Thread Klaus Stock

  This plays into some recent conversations about efficiency vs resilience.

Yup. And neither efficiency nor resilience will help you in the
end if you don't ponder some important questions first. Like: do we
measure altitude in feet or meters?, or should we check if the old
guidance system will work okay in the new rocket?

- Klaus

 Date: Mon, 12 Nov 2012 20:06:16 +0100
 From: k...@stock-consulting.com
 To: brin-l@mccmedia.com
 Subject: Re: Obama II
 
  I know as a fact that the Defense Department said they
  would require that all programming for applications they used would have to
  be done in Ada (I think within 5 years) because Ada was a compiler that
  automatically eliminated bugs.
 
 AFAIK, the Ada compiler can detect many programmer mistakes at compile
 time. Of course, one might say that Ada that's mainly because Ada
 imposes so many restrictions on the programmer that the chance to make
 mistakes is greatly increased (compared to more relaxed languages,
 which do, for example, implicit type conversion). Ada also supports
 run-time-checks - which detects bugs when it's already too late (or
 may even cause bugs in extreme cases).
 
 Compared to other languages of the time, like Fortran, it's clearly
 superior in detecting some classes of bugs early. It also reduces the
 programmer's efficiency, resulting the number of bugs per time compare
 to more efficient languages.
 
 However, the best bugs are introduced during programming, but much
 earlier. Catching bugs at the earliest possible time is expensive, but
 the ROI is immense and outweighs the cost by several orders of
 magnitude. Of course, any manager who was reading this dropped out at
 the word expensive, so defective software will remain the standard.
 
 
 Okay, the word standard reminds to get back on-topic. I suspect that
 the reason for the choice of Ada was that Ada was the first
 standardized HL programming language. Oh, the military loves
 standards. No further explanation necessary.
 
 Best regards, Klaus
 
 
 ___
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-- 
Best regards,
 Klausmailto:k...@stock-consulting.com


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Re: Obama II

2012-11-11 Thread David Hobby
On a related note, I've been reading about problems with the Romney 
campaign's software to organize election day get-out-the-vote efforts.  
My first reaction was Sabotage?, but now I'm betting that incompetence 
is the more likely explanation. See:

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2012/president/candidates/romney/2012/11/10/orca-mitt-romney-high-tech-get-out-the-vote-program-crashed-election-day/gflS8VkzDcJcXCrHoV0nsI/story.html

What do you think?

---David



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Re: Obama II

2012-11-11 Thread Nick Arnett
Sounded like a classic scalability problem.

I'm looking forward to our company telling our election software story. Had
been super secret.

Nick

On Sunday, November 11, 2012, David Hobby wrote:

 On a related note, I've been reading about problems with the Romney
 campaign's software to organize election day get-out-the-vote efforts.  My
 first reaction was Sabotage?, but now I'm betting that incompetence is
 the more likely explanation. See:
 http://www.boston.com/news/**politics/2012/president/**
 candidates/romney/2012/11/10/**orca-mitt-romney-high-tech-**
 get-out-the-vote-program-**crashed-election-day/**
 gflS8VkzDcJcXCrHoV0nsI/story.**htmlhttp://www.boston.com/news/politics/2012/president/candidates/romney/2012/11/10/orca-mitt-romney-high-tech-get-out-the-vote-program-crashed-election-day/gflS8VkzDcJcXCrHoV0nsI/story.html

 What do you think?

 ---David



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RE: Obama II

2012-11-11 Thread Dan Minette
Nick wrote

Sounded like a classic scalability problem. 

I would guess otherwise.  This would be an interesting geekish debate to
have.  My guess is that its akin to the problem with Star Wars software,
which was assumed to work first time untested.  From what I read, their
software did not lend itself to real live testing before election day.  So,
it glitched badly, as one would expect the first time in the field. 

My software work has often been with firmare that runs 20,000 feet below the
surface, with no chance to fix anything once it goes downhole.  Field
testing in real wells is essential, even for software that has run perfectly
without intervention in the lab.  It's easy to field test and fix software
that helps field operatives identify and talk with prospective voters before
the election.  If there's a major problem found in Cleveland in July, it can
be fixed and the fix sent out nationwide in a few days.  But, with the
Republicans, if I understand correctly, their software was for election day
onlycounting voters off a list and then providing lists of pro-Romney
voters who haven't voted yet.  If it glitches on election day, the best
programmers in the world couldn't get the patch out in time.

That's my guess, anyways.  Does anyone else want to play detective. :-)

Dan M. 


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Re: Obama II

2012-11-11 Thread Nick Arnett
Star Wars had a critical difference. It didn't need to work because it was
all a giant bluff. Romney had little or nothing to gain by bluffing.

Back to the facts. The Romney team said the software was running 20-30
minutes behind. And pointed out that, as you suggest, there was no real way
to test it in advance. But in that situation, you have to really over-
design for scalability.

Nick

On Sunday, November 11, 2012, Dan Minette wrote:

 Nick wrote

 Sounded like a classic scalability problem.

 I would guess otherwise.  This would be an interesting geekish debate to
 have.  My guess is that its akin to the problem with Star Wars software,
 which was assumed to work first time untested.  From what I read, their
 software did not lend itself to real live testing before election day.  So,
 it glitched badly, as one would expect the first time in the field.

 My software work has often been with firmare that runs 20,000 feet below
 the
 surface, with no chance to fix anything once it goes downhole.  Field
 testing in real wells is essential, even for software that has run
 perfectly
 without intervention in the lab.  It's easy to field test and fix software
 that helps field operatives identify and talk with prospective voters
 before
 the election.  If there's a major problem found in Cleveland in July, it
 can
 be fixed and the fix sent out nationwide in a few days.  But, with the
 Republicans, if I understand correctly, their software was for election day
 onlycounting voters off a list and then providing lists of pro-Romney
 voters who haven't voted yet.  If it glitches on election day, the best
 programmers in the world couldn't get the patch out in time.

 That's my guess, anyways.  Does anyone else want to play detective. :-)

 Dan M.


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RE: Obama II

2012-11-11 Thread Dan Minette
On Star Wars, it worked as a bluff, but I don't think Reagan was bluffing.
I think he believed.  I know as a fact that the Defense Department said they
would require that all programming for applications they used would have to
be done in Ada (I think within 5 years) because Ada was a compiler that
automatically eliminated bugs. Anyone who wrote any software at Dresser
Industries had to write a program in Ada, even scientists like me.  But,
that was back in the day when the head of computer departments for major
corporations had no idea how computers worked. 

  Back to the facts. The Romney team said the software was running 20-30
minutes behind.  
 
Well, I also read that parts of it simply failedreporting 0 votes from a
long list on election day.  The part that targeted voting lists to cull
those who haven't voted for attention can be made modular.  
 
But in that situation, you have to really over- design for scalability.

Or modular.  Let the software run on 10,000 computers in every regional
office, with just the sums sent to the main headquarters.  Obama's software
workedand I think its because it was field tested for monthsit was
intended to track voters for months, not just on election day.  

Dan M.


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Re: Obama II

2012-11-11 Thread David Hobby

On 11/11/2012 6:00 PM, Dan Minette wrote:

...
Well, I also read that parts of it simply failedreporting 0 votes from a
long list on election day.  The part that targeted voting lists to cull
those who haven't voted for attention can be made modular.



I don't think it was just a software failure.  The campaign also 
neglected to tell
poll watchers that they needed a certificate, and the instructions for 
the software

were poor.

http://www.businessinsider.com/romney-project-orca-disaster-2012-11

---David

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Re: Obama II

2012-11-11 Thread Nick Arnett
I didn't realize how unclear it is whether Reagan and other top officials
regarded it as a bluff or not, until I poked around a bit just now.  Easy
to see how they might have started off serious, then decided to re-write
history and say it was all a bluff.  I have some up-close and personal
experience with the Reagan White House rewriting history - their version
persists in most peoples' minds still; when I tell my version, most people
are still surprised.  Shows the power of the bully pulpit, sure was
interesting to see it first-hand.

Nick


On Sun, Nov 11, 2012 at 3:00 PM, Dan Minette danmine...@att.net wrote:

 On Star Wars, it worked as a bluff, but I don't think Reagan was bluffing.
 I think he believed.  I know as a fact that the Defense Department said
 they
 would require that all programming for applications they used would have to
 be done in Ada (I think within 5 years) because Ada was a compiler that
 automatically eliminated bugs. Anyone who wrote any software at Dresser
 Industries had to write a program in Ada, even scientists like me.  But,
 that was back in the day when the head of computer departments for major
 corporations had no idea how computers worked.

   Back to the facts. The Romney team said the software was running 20-30
 minutes behind.

 Well, I also read that parts of it simply failedreporting 0 votes from
 a
 long list on election day.  The part that targeted voting lists to cull
 those who haven't voted for attention can be made modular.

 But in that situation, you have to really over- design for scalability.

 Or modular.  Let the software run on 10,000 computers in every regional
 office, with just the sums sent to the main headquarters.  Obama's software
 workedand I think its because it was field tested for monthsit was
 intended to track voters for months, not just on election day.

 Dan M.


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Re: Obama II

2012-11-11 Thread Warren Adams-Ockrassa
I recall Carl Sagan despairing that Reagan believed it. The amount of money and 
resources that went into live tests would suggest there was faith at the top, 
regardless of what those 'lower' in the chain of command might have thought. 

At the time SW was being promoted, it gave all the appearance of earnestness. 

• Warren • off console • w azkrmc.com • h nightwares.com •

On Nov 11, 2012, at 20:52, Nick Arnett nick.arn...@gmail.com wrote:

 I didn't realize how unclear it is whether Reagan and other top officials 
 regarded it as a bluff or not, until I poked around a bit just now.  Easy to 
 see how they might have started off serious, then decided to re-write history 
 and say it was all a bluff.  I have some up-close and personal experience 
 with the Reagan White House rewriting history - their version persists in 
 most peoples' minds still; when I tell my version, most people are still 
 surprised.  Shows the power of the bully pulpit, sure was interesting to see 
 it first-hand.
 
 Nick
 
 
 On Sun, Nov 11, 2012 at 3:00 PM, Dan Minette danmine...@att.net wrote:
 On Star Wars, it worked as a bluff, but I don't think Reagan was bluffing.
 I think he believed.  I know as a fact that the Defense Department said they
 would require that all programming for applications they used would have to
 be done in Ada (I think within 5 years) because Ada was a compiler that
 automatically eliminated bugs. Anyone who wrote any software at Dresser
 Industries had to write a program in Ada, even scientists like me.  But,
 that was back in the day when the head of computer departments for major
 corporations had no idea how computers worked.
 
   Back to the facts. The Romney team said the software was running 20-30
 minutes behind.
 
 Well, I also read that parts of it simply failedreporting 0 votes from a
 long list on election day.  The part that targeted voting lists to cull
 those who haven't voted for attention can be made modular.
 
 But in that situation, you have to really over- design for scalability.
 
 Or modular.  Let the software run on 10,000 computers in every regional
 office, with just the sums sent to the main headquarters.  Obama's software
 workedand I think its because it was field tested for monthsit was
 intended to track voters for months, not just on election day.
 
 Dan M.
 
 
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RE: Obama II

2012-11-11 Thread Dan Minette
 
I didn't realize how unclear it is whether Reagan and other top officials
regarded it as a bluff or 
not, until I poked around a bit just now.  Easy to see how they might have
started off serious, then
decided to re-write history and say it was all a bluff.  I have some
up-close and personal experience
with the Reagan White House rewriting history - their version persists in
most peoples' minds still;
when I tell my version, most people are still surprised.  Shows the power
of the bully pulpit, sure was
interesting to see it first-hand. 

If it was a bluff, it was a brilliant bluff.  Getting the USSR to focus on
Star Wars instead of invading Europe and hastening their collapse to
minimize the time of risk was just what Truman thought of when we came up
with containment instead of war.  As it was, we were luckly.  If the coup
wasn't overturned, the USSR would have reformed and a last gasp attack on
Europe might have happened.

Dan M. 


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Re: Obama II

2012-11-10 Thread Bryon Daly
Here in Brazil, we had the impression that the Republicans chose the
worst possible candidate, someone they put there to lose. Or maybe the
Democrats voted in the Republican primaries to make him win.
A big part of Romney's appeal was that as a tremendously successful
businessman, he was afforded a large amount of economic credibility.  And
with almost 4 years now of the Great Recession under Obama's watch, the
economy was the number one concern for many people and Obama was vulnerable
on this issue.  They then doubled-down on this by picking another
economics-type guy as his running mate.  And this was largely successful
in that despite them providing very little in the way of hard numbers, they
were often the winners of the who is better for the economy polls.

Another part of Romney's appeal was that he had some moderate/centrist
appeal as a moderate republican, having been elected governor of the
largely democrat state of Masschusetts, and having passed the Romneycare
health plan, which is often called the model for the Obamacare health
plan.  But those were both huge vulnerabilities for him in the primary
process where some felt he wasn't conservative enough and Obamacare is a
dirty word.  Further, as a Mormon, Romney doesn't quite pass the WASP test
so he basically had to tack hard right to build up his conservative cred to
get the party nomination.

The likely intention was to shift back to the center to hopefully get the
moderates back on board once he had the nomination locked, but that never
quite worked out.  Romney never quite had the right's full trust,
which likely wasn't helped when Romney's spokesman was asked back in
March if Romney's shift to the far right would hurt him with moderates, and
the spokesman replied:
“Well, I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything
changes. It’s almost like an Etch-A-Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and
restart all of over again.”  -- Thus begging the question from both
moderates and the far right of what Romney really believes and stands for.
Is he a flip-flopper - or worse, is he just always willing to say whatever
it takes to get elected?


Did anyone over there ever think that Mitt Romney had _any_ chance?
Many of the pundits and talking heads of the right actually seemed to
expect a landslide victory for Romney.  Quite a few projected electoral
college results around the reverse of the actual result: around 300+ for
Romney, and around 206 for Obama.  Liberals had high levels
of schadenfreude watching the distressed Fox News coverage.
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/democratic-schadenfreude-gay-rights-allen-west-karl-rove-donald-trump.php
And of course, a 2.5% difference in the number of popular votes for each
candidate is quite a slim margin, particularly when the electoral college
nonsense makes it possible for the loser of the popular vote to get elected.
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Obama II

2012-11-09 Thread ALBERTO VIEIRA FERREIRA MONTEIRO
So... What about Obama's reelection?

Here in Brazil, we had the impression that the Republicans chose the
worst possible candidate, someone they put there to lose. Or maybe the
Democrats voted in the Republican primaries to make him win.

Did anyone over there ever think that Mitt Romney had _any_ chance?

Alberto Monteiro

PS: BTW, brazilian president, Dilma Rousseff, is _boring_. Three years as
president, and there's not _any_ single joke about her. Nothing.

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RE: Obama II

2012-11-09 Thread Dan Minette
 

-Original Message-
From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On
Behalf Of ALBERTO VIEIRA FERREIRA MONTEIRO
Sent: Friday, November 09, 2012 3:17 AM
To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion
Subject: Obama II

So... What about Obama's reelection?

Here in Brazil, we had the impression that the Republicans chose the
worst possible candidate,
someone they put there to lose. Or maybe the Democrats voted in the
Republican primaries to make him 
win.

We have a primary system in the US.  Right now, the extreme right wing of
the Repubican party can force candidates far to the right.  Good Republican
candidates stayed on the sideline this year, leaving Romney and the 7 right
wing dwarfs.  

Did anyone over there ever think that Mitt Romney had _any_ chance?

I did, especially after the first debate.  No American president has been
re-elected with more than 7.2% unemployment since FDR, and he brought
employment way down.  This has been probably the most painful ecconomic
period (in terms of changes) since WWII.  That's a strong headwind.  When
Obama sleptwalked through the first debate, and Romney was ahead in the
national polls, I thought it was a toss up. Especially after the UN speech
which totally misidentified the cause of the deaths in Lybia after the
administration had intelligence that pointed to terrorism, not a crowd gone
wild.  But, Romney blew the 2nd and 3rd debate, Obama...for the first time
in the campaign, acted as though he wanted to be reelected, and Sandy
cemented in the American mind the positive roll the Federal government can
play.  By election Eve, Gautam and I were arguing about the margin.  He was
spot on, I though Romney would take VA, CO, and FL.

Dan M. 


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Re: Obama II

2012-11-09 Thread Warren Adams-Ockrassa
On Fri, 9 Nov 2012 07:17:25 -0200, ALBERTO VIEIRA FERREIRA MONTEIRO 
albm...@centroin.com.br wrote:

So... What about Obama's reelection?


Here in Brazil, we had the impression that the Republicans chose the
worst possible candidate, someone they put there to lose. Or maybe the
Democrats voted in the Republican primaries to make him win. 


I've got a somewhat different take on it from Dan, I think. The extreme 
'right' in the Republican party is a shrinking minority, however little 
they want to admit the fact, and however voluble their protests to the 
contrary might be. Rick Perry is an example of the kind of candidate 
they would have preferred. 

The Republican mainstream probably knew better; if they felt the same 
way as the extremists Perry would have floated a lot longer than he did. 

Of all the other candidates, Ron Paul seemed the most sensible, but he 
had two things going against him: 1. He had a history of permitting 
extremely racist sentiments to be promulgated under his imprimatur; and 
2. He was far, far more intelligent than any of the other candidates 
and, indeed, a fair margin of the electorate. Americans shy away from 
intelligence. 

So no, Romney was the best pick of the available options, as far as the 
Republicans saw him, I think. He wasn't *too* smart, wasn't *too* 
radically 'right', wasn't *too* moderate/centrist. He also wasn't too 
consistent, as his constantly changing campaign evidenced (he was 
reversing himself a couple of times a month by the end). 

No one deliberately floats a candidate they think will lose - what 
would the profit be in that? And if the Democrats had been stealth 
voting to undermine the Republicans, they would've picked someone 
clearly batshit loony, like Perry. 


Did anyone over there ever think that Mitt Romney had _any_ chance?


Well, all but about 225,000 voters, yes. That's how narrow the popular 
vote margin was, last time I checked, between Obama and Romney. 

Dan was right about the debate performance, as well. Romney came out 
swinging and clobbered Obama in the first debate. The second and third 
were solid comebacks, though the third debate - being about foreign 
policy - was not watched by many Americans. (Our foreign policy is 
'kill em all and let god sort em out'.)


Biden did pretty well against Ryan in the VP debates, as well, calling 
him out repeatedly whenever he went outside the bounds of what most of 
us call 'reality'. Obama did the same thing with the second debate, 
calling Romney out when he lied, letting himself talk himself into 
corners, and so on. 

Nonetheless, Romney's approval went way, way up after the first debate, 
and it really did seem to energize him and his supporters. The 
electoral map doesn't show just how close the popular vote really was - 
and it was close. 


 --
Warren Adams-Ockrassa


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RE: Obama II

2012-11-09 Thread Dan Minette

In terms of the popular vote, as of now Obama has 61,174,297 votes, while
Romney has 58,172,063 votes A difference of 3,002,234, so a fair margin and
decisively winning the popular vote for Obama.

The difference is going to be slighly above 2.5% and slightly above the Bush
margin over Kerry, but nowhere near the margin he had in '08. 

 I've got a somewhat different take on it from Dan, I think. The 
 extreme 'right' in the Republican party is a shrinking minority, 
 however little they want to admit the fact, and however voluble their 
 protests to the contrary might be. Rick Perry is an example of the 
 kind of candidate they would have preferred.

He is a weak example, though.  He couldn't remember his talking points.
And, if you recall, Romney went to the right of him on immigration.  The GOP
is interesting.  I live in a very red state, and Perry better reflects the
average GOP voter than Romney.  But, he had baggage that would have doomed
him in the general election, like appproving people who wanted Texas to
seceed from the USA while governor.  So, the GOP establishment, which still
controls a lot of money, undercut him.  And his not being able to remember
his own name (OK I'm exaggerating) in a debate didn't help him. I think the
GOP establishment is fading, and Ryan is the likely '16 candidate. 

Remember, this is the party that took down Lugar so they could run a yahoo.
They may control the Senate if they let moderate Republicans run. Nate
Silver did a great piece on how the moderate GOP senators have mostly left.
And the House is dominated by the tea party.  One of the problems the
Speaker of the House has is that he many not be able to deliver even a third
of the party for a compromise on spending cuts/tax increases to decrease the
deficit. Remember, the presidential candidates had to agree that even $1 in
tax increase for every $10 in spending cuts was unacceptable.

Dan M.



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Obama II

2012-11-09 Thread Jon Louis Mann
 So... What about Obama's reelection?
 Here in Brazil, we had the impression that the Republicans
 chose the worst possible candidate, put there to lose.
 Or maybe the Democrats voted in the Republican  primaries 
 to make him win. Did anyone over there ever think that Mitt 
 Romney had _any_ chance?
 Alberto Monteiro
 PS: BTW, Brazilian president, Dilma Rousseff, is _boring_.  
 Three years as president, and not _any_ single joke about her.
 Nothing.

Another explanation is perhaps when there is a incumbent up for the final term 
allowed under the law, more qualified candidates may choose to sit it out and 
let unknowns and also rans get egg on their face?  Of course, in recent years 
that logic hasn't applied, but, Obama wasn't perceived as that weak, as Carter 
or Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. didn't really win...

Capitalism Sucks is a book about the evils of capitalism.  The author, Wolf 
Larsen, has a blog titled: War Criminal Obama Wins Reelection to the White 
House.

http://capitalismsucks.blog.com

Larsen ran for president in the 2012 elections as an independent. His campaign 
slogan was ~ Choosing between the Democrats and Republicans is like choosing 
between AIDS and cancer!

http://WolfLarsen.org

By the way if anyone is interested in how I did in the Santa Monica city 
council race please friend me on my Facebook page.  While you're at it you 
might want to join in on the discussions on Brin's wall!~)
Jon Mann

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