I posted a week ago,
On Sun, 05 Nov 2000 17:00:27 -0500, Rich Ulrich <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
< ... >
> Further -- actual people who will vote are named as "Electors" by the
> party conventions (or, is there variation here?). This is a reward
> for being a party stalwart. I remember seeing n
The latest polls are out. The New York Times gets an A for
describing the precision and accuracy of their poll. Gallup gets a C-
or D in my book.
The New York Times today:
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/06/politics/06METH.html
In theory, in 19 cases out of 20 the results based on such samples
On 3 Nov 2000 14:10:23 -0800, [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Reg Jordan) wrote:
> Each state is not necessarily winner-take-all. Several states permit their
> electoral votes to be split. I believe either Kansas or Nebraska is one of
> those states.
>
> reg
And Reg posted later that Nebraska and Maine aren
In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>,
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
> >
> > "For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say
> > with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 2
> > percentage points."
>
> Those guys are supposed to be professionals, and they should have
>> I may not be the only one confused on what these confidence intervals
>> mean. In the above press release, the Gallup organization provides this
>> description of what their +/- 2% means:
>>
>> "For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say
>> with 95% confidence that th
, November 03, 2000 11:56 AM
Subject: Re: Error in polls, Part 2
> On Thu, 02 Nov 2000 14:02:48 GMT, Gene Gallagher
> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> > A URL for the 1 Nov Gallup poll:
> >
> > http://www.gallup.com/Poll/releases/pr001101c.asp
> >
> >
On Thu, 02 Nov 2000 14:02:48 GMT, Gene Gallagher
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> A URL for the 1 Nov Gallup poll:
>
> http://www.gallup.com/Poll/releases/pr001101c.asp
>
> This poll has Bush over Gore 48% to 43% with margin of error of 2%.
> Wolfgang's post and the thread below indicates that this
A URL for the 1 Nov Gallup poll:
http://www.gallup.com/Poll/releases/pr001101c.asp
This poll has Bush over Gore 48% to 43% with margin of error of 2%.
Wolfgang's post and the thread below indicates that this +/- 2% is the
95% CI, which makes sense given the sample size. With the 2% 95% CI, we
c
uh-oh, what am I saying ...
On Fri, 27 Oct 2000 14:21:36 -0400, Rich Ulrich <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
< snip, cite >
> No, you have it wrong. Think about the case where the two
> candidates/options add exactly to 100% -- the "4% error" is exactly
> the same 4% for both, since one goes down e
On 27 Oct 2000 07:26:43 -0700, [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Wolfgang
Rolke) wrote:
< snip, about polling ... >
> A very nice
> discussion of the issues involved can be found at
> http://slate.msn.com/framegame/entries/00-10-26_92147.asp . An explanation of the
Hallo again,
A couple of days ago I wrote a message concerning the polls for the
presidential campaign that are currently being published on a daily basis, and
especially the usual +-4% error and how it is computed. I received three replies
pointing out some of the difficulties such as the fa
> Wolfgang,
> Even if we use a binomial prob. value of 0.5 (under null hypothesis), we will
> get 3.5% error at 95% CI. Maybe, they are rounding up to 4%!
>
Cheers
> Siddeek
>
>
> Wolfgang Rolke wrote:
>
> > Today the following polling results were given on cnn.com for the
> > Presidential race
Wolfgang,
Even if we use a binomial prob. value of 0.5 (under null hypothesis), we will
get 3.5% error at 95% CI. Maybe, they are rounding up to 4%!
Siddeek
Wolfgang Rolke wrote:
> Today the following polling results were given on cnn.com for the
> Presidential race:
>
> CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POL
On Wed, 25 Oct 2000, Wolfgang Rolke asked:
> I am wondering how they find the Sampling error of +/-4% pts. The usual
> estimate for the standard error of a binomial would be (for Bush)
>
> SQRT(0.46*(1-0.46)/769) = 0.01797
>
> The error in a 95% CI would then be 1.96*0.01797 = 3.5%
>
> and in
Today the following polling results were given on cnn.com for the
Presidential race:
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 20-22
Likely Voters' Choice for President
Bush 46%
Gore 44%
Nader 4%
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