Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric

[Michael Ross via EV]

Lee. Auminum is also on the problem list same any other that Russia has a
major portion of global production. They are a top source for ag chemicals:
nitrogen, potash and phosphorus fertilizers. In the US we won't be
strained, but it's a problem elsewhere. We (the global we) don't grow food
enough for 6 billion people without those fertilizers. Ukraine alone is 10%
of global calories.

On Fri, May 19, 2023, 3:30 PM Lee Hart  wrote:

> Michael Ross via EV wrote:
> > An EV on average requires 5 times as much copper as an ICEV...
>
> That seems a bit extreme. ICEs are also increasingly loaded with copper,
> thanks to the preponderance of creature features and infotainment systems.
>
> Copper is also highly recyclable, and there are alternatives like aluminum.
>
> There are always more solutions than problems. We just have to look for
> them.
>
> Lee
>
> --
> Whatever the problem, be part of the solution. Don’t just sit
> around raising questions and pointing out obstacles. -- Tina Fey
> --
> Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
>
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Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric

[Peri Hartman via EV]

inordinate amounts of copper are sent to landfills. Probably most Romex 
and heavier gauge copper are recycled, but all the Cat5, lamp cords, and 
other small stuff with PVC casing get tossed. Collectively, I suspect 
that's a large amount of copper. Hard to extract the copper from the 
casings.


But, we do have the technology. Pyrolysis reactors can do the trick. 
When you melt all this stuff without oxygen, you essentially get oil, 
methane, and minerals. We just need someone to take the lead and make 
this happen on a commercial scale.


Peri

<< Annoyed by leaf blowers ? https://quietcleanseattle.org/ >>


-- Original Message --
From: "Lee Hart via EV" 
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" 
Cc: "Lee Hart" 
Sent: 19-May-23 12:30:55
Subject: Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric


Michael Ross via EV wrote:

An EV on average requires 5 times as much copper as an ICEV...


That seems a bit extreme. ICEs are also increasingly loaded with copper, thanks 
to the preponderance of creature features and infotainment systems.

Copper is also highly recyclable, and there are alternatives like aluminum.

There are always more solutions than problems. We just have to look for them.

Lee

-- Whatever the problem, be part of the solution. Don’t just sit
around raising questions and pointing out obstacles. -- Tina Fey
--
Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com

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Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric

[EV List Lackey via EV]

On 19 May 2023 at 23:32, Michael Ross via EV wrote:

> THere are so many other sources of un-supply that are needed for EVs.
> Basically the supply chains are going to be hosed for a good minimum of
> 10 years. 

This is like any other product supply situation.  

If big business decides that there's money to be made in EVs, they'll solve 
any supply problems that arise.  We may not think that their solutions are 
ethical and/or sustainable, but they'll find them.

If they decide that there's not enough money in EVs, they'll use the alleged 
supply problems as excuses to not bother.

Activist governments can put their thumbs on the scale, pro-EV or anti-EV.

Most western EU nations are pushing for EVs, or at least are neutral.

Chinese politics notwithstanding, China's government is also promoting EVs.

Right now the US government, and some of the states', are slightly pro-EV. I 
don't expect the federal position to last beyond the next few years, 
however.
.
David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey

To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it.  Use my 
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Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric

[Michael Ross via EV]

Hi Lee,

There are many ways to quibble over this. The accounting I read estimates
the copper that is used in all the ICE currently on the road worldwide, and
estimates the total copper in a 100% BEV global fleet to be 5 times
greater. During the course of retiring that ICE fleet there would be
recycling of copper. I haven't thought super hard about this, but I assume
a large part is in the batteries, and the motors have a big load of Cu.
Then there would be bus bars,presumed to be copper for lower resistance.
EVs have a lot more electronics in them, although that is not the fault of
the EV, more the attachment to cameras, bigger computers. and so on. There
is electric HVAC.

The total number of Teslas is just under 4M, and the total of all cars is
just under 1.5B. That is a factor of 375. All the Teslas are 1/375th of the
total number of ICE worldwide.

Similar issues will arise with all electronics but mostly because of the
failure of the large sources of palladiums (Pt, Ir, Os, etc.),the stuff it
takes to make 10nm ICs. Neon for lasers comes from Mariupol where pig iron
is no longer made. THere are so many other sources of un-supply that are
needed for EVs. Basically the supply chains are going to be hosed for a
good minimum of 10 years. The whole green future is hazy at best for 20 or
more years. Maybe this is all worst case thinking, and we can do better.
Lots of money to be made rearranging the industrial world, but it's not
going to be easy at all.

Anyway, Toyota may have run some numbers like this and decided they can
happily make an enormous number of ICE while a tiny fraction of EVs are
made.

Mike


On Fri, May 19, 2023 at 3:30 PM Lee Hart  wrote:

> Michael Ross via EV wrote:
> > An EV on average requires 5 times as much copper as an ICEV...
>
> That seems a bit extreme. ICEs are also increasingly loaded with copper,
> thanks to the preponderance of creature features and infotainment systems.
>
> Copper is also highly recyclable, and there are alternatives like aluminum.
>
> There are always more solutions than problems. We just have to look for
> them.
>
> Lee
>
> --
> Whatever the problem, be part of the solution. Don’t just sit
> around raising questions and pointing out obstacles. -- Tina Fey
> --
> Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
>
> --
> This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
> www.avast.com
>


-- 
Michael E. Ross
(919) 585-6737 Land
(919) 901-2805 Cell and Text
(919) 576-0824  Tablet,
Google Phone and Text
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Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric

[(-Phil-) via EV]

I too think this isn't a big deal.   The market price of copper will force
creativity.  The Chinese already sell a LOT of CCA. (Copper Clad Aluminum),
Horrible stuff!

Tesla has done a lot to reduce copper use.   If you've ever looked at a
wiring harness on a Model 3 or Y, most of the wires are so thin it's right
on the edge of being mechanically risky.   They also switched all heavy HV
wiring to aluminum.  The bulk of the copper is still definitely in the 12v
wiring, and this is shared on ICE vehicles.

Tesla announced a switch to 48v for LV in future vehicles, This will make
the present high-current wiring look almost like the super thin data wiring
does now.  (4x smaller)

I can't speak for what the other OEMs are doing, because I primarily touch
Teslas.

Here's a picture of some Model 3 wiring, the 2 wires at the bottom carry
power, but the others are data:  http://ingineerix.com/pic/?tesla-lv-wiring




On Fri, May 19, 2023 at 12:32 PM Lee Hart via EV  wrote:

> Michael Ross via EV wrote:
> > An EV on average requires 5 times as much copper as an ICEV...
>
> That seems a bit extreme. ICEs are also increasingly loaded with copper,
> thanks to the preponderance of creature features and infotainment systems.
>
> Copper is also highly recyclable, and there are alternatives like aluminum.
>
> There are always more solutions than problems. We just have to look for
> them.
>
> Lee
>
> --
> Whatever the problem, be part of the solution. Don’t just sit
> around raising questions and pointing out obstacles. -- Tina Fey
> --
> Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
>
> --
> This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
> www.avast.com
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Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric

[Lee Hart via EV]

Michael Ross via EV wrote:

An EV on average requires 5 times as much copper as an ICEV...


That seems a bit extreme. ICEs are also increasingly loaded with copper, 
thanks to the preponderance of creature features and infotainment systems.


Copper is also highly recyclable, and there are alternatives like aluminum.

There are always more solutions than problems. We just have to look for 
them.


Lee

--
Whatever the problem, be part of the solution. Don’t just sit
around raising questions and pointing out obstacles. -- Tina Fey
--
Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com

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Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric

[Michael Ross via EV]

An EV on average requires 5 times as much copper as an ICEV. Copper
production is stuck at that level and only supports the paltry (compared to
current ICE production and the global number of ICE) global EV production.
It will be more than a decade before copper mining can reach the level
needed to keep up with the condemnation of ICE, and full production of
global EVs.

The Russians are top 3 producers of a host of other materials without which
EV production csn not be successful. The Russians are on a demographic cul
de sac and will be unable to support a fraction of current production.
Their production could go to zero if they continue their sysisiphan ways.
For copper only Chile is a volume source.

If Toyota has sussed this out, they could end up the major supplier of ICE
for a very long time.

Wondering why Toyota seems out of step? Maybe they have crunched more
comprehensive numbers. They have been correct over the years with ICE. Why
assume they suddenly have gone stupid? May be the EV production is bubblier
than many believe.

ICE make sense in certain circumstances. Hydrogen? Hard to see how that
turns out well.

On Thu, May 18, 2023, 8:01 PM Lawrence Rhodes via EV 
wrote:

>  They seem to want to go bankrupt. Their resistance to battery EVs is
> irresponsible. It is a matter of time. They can catch up  but it will take
> time. Their hydrogen side track is not helping. Lawrence Rhodes
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Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric

[jamie via EV]

I read somewhere that Toyota may have been reacting to the US 
government's 1990's forward looking "Partnership for a New Generation of 
Vehicles" program which included only domestic auto manufacturers and 
was showing results toward 80mpg - and when PNGV was subsequently 
cancelled by Bush Jr. (at the behest of those same domestic auto 
manufacturers), that gave Toyota an opportunity with its independent R 
to eventually hit a home run with the Prius.


Being the clear winner in hybrid tech, it wouldn't be unusual or 
unexpected to want to protect a successful market. Waves of disruption 
don't usually come from those benefiting from and clinging to fading 
moats (with some exceptions). But eventually a buggy whip market share 
will fall, along with companies who fail to disrupt and reinvent 
themselves toward a more successful future.


Public companies are no less threatened by lack of vision than family 
managed companies. GM did go bankrupt, for example. We all bailed them 
out. And Chrysler was swallowed up.


Toyota has plenty of experience with EV tech but they need to evolve 
their business model. Hope they pull it off, and soon.



On 5/19/23 4:14 AM, EV List Lackey via EV wrote:

On 19 May 2023 at 0:00, Lawrence Rhodes via EV wrote:


They seem to want to go bankrupt.


Toyota is like Fiat (at least used to be) - wedded to the ICE.  At top
management level, they seem to despise the very idea of true EVs.

I'm obvously not an insider, but I suspect that Toyota developed their
original hybrid design not as a way to prepare for an EV future, but as a
way to fend off EVs and support ICEVs.

Stellantis is in the EU, where sales of new private ICEVs have been banned
by law from 2035. If they want to continue to compete, Stellantis have
little choice but to develop and sell EVs.

Toyata is in (duh) Japan, and they have an enormous level of influence in
the Japanese government.  That's probably why Japan's 2035 ICEV "ban" - wait
for it - prohibits the sale of "liquid fuel only" vehicles.

In other words, as Europe and China aim for true EVs, Japan is casting their
lot with Toyota-approved hybrids.

I think that in the long run, Toyota (and Honda, and Suzuki, and Mazda, and,
well, Japan overall) will regret clinging so tightly to hybrids.  China is
likely to do to Japan's auto industry in the 2030s what Japan did to the
US's in the 1980s.  It will darn well serve them right.

I don't think that Toyota will actually declare bankruptcy as a result, but
they're likely to become a smaller, less prosperous company.

David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey

To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it.  Use my
offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt

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Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric

[John Blair via EV]

Toyota is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (as well as other stock 
exchanges): TM.  I held that stock for a number of years until I decided I did 
not like their philosophy on EV’s.  I owned a first generation 2002 RAV4-EV and 
loved that car (I removed the rear seats to make it into a “micro-van”) and 
still own a 2013 second generation RAV4-EV (EV parts designed by Tesla) which I 
like very much. Neither car were great for long distance traveling although I 
drove the 2013 multiple times between Northern California and Southern 
California after the addition of a fast charging CHAdeMO port (by QC Charge). 

John
John Blair


> On May 19, 2023, at 2:27 AM, Bill Dube via EV  > wrote:
> 
> Toyota is a closely held business. I believe it may be owned by a family.
> They were on the forefront of alternative fuels for many years, but they 
> stubbornly would not come out with a battery powered vehicle, until everyone 
> else came out with one and they basically had no choice.
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Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric

[Peter Eckhoff via EV]

Back in the early 2000's, Bill Moore, publisher of EV World, was in
the Toyota Museum in Japan.  He was speaking with the Director of the
Museum and Bill asked about Toyota planning with respect to hydrogen
fuel cells and electric vehicles.  This was at a time when CARB was
dissing EVs for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCV).  The Director told
Bill that he spoke with the Chairman of the Board.  The Chairman would
speak with his fellow chairmen of the petroleum companies about future
prices and supplies.  He would then talk with his Board of Directors
about planning future vehicles.  The Director said that if they did
not get their planning right, they would go bankrupt.  Which brings up
further the question of why hasn't Toyota produced an EV and why they
have stayed so long with HFCVs.  Even back then, knowing of the
inefficiencies of hydrogen production, it was plain as day that HFCVs
were not the way to go.

https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/
:
" We start working on iron phosphate with John in 1996. It took almost
15 years for that technology to become commercially valuable."

Here in the EVDL, we started to experiment with Lithium Iron Phosphate
in the late 2000's(?)  A123 was founded in 2001.  A number of EVDL'ers
bought CALB batteries.  We could see the advantages of Lithium Iron
Phosphate even back then.  This furthers the mystery of why Toyota did
not climb aboard the EV wagon?  Were the Board members too polite to
question the direction of the CEO?  It's a puzzlement.


On Fri, May 19, 2023 at 5:28 AM Bill Dube via EV  wrote:
>
> Toyota is a closely held business. I believe it may be owned by a family.
> They were on the forefront of alternative fuels for many years, but they
> stubbornly would not come out with a battery powered vehicle, until
> everyone else came out with one and they basically had no choice.
>
> I suspect that someone has the ear of the owner (or the oldest, and thus
> most influential family member,) or perhaps the owner has the an
> incorrect vision of the future of the car market.
>
> If it were a publicly owned company, it would have long ago jumped on
> the EV bandwagon.
>
> Having said that, the Prius hybrid came out at a time when every other
> car maker thought it was a very foolish move. The Prius would not have
> been built if Toyota was a publicly owned company.
>
> Bill D.
>
> On 5/19/2023 12:00 PM, Lawrence Rhodes via EV wrote:
> >   They seem to want to go bankrupt. Their resistance to battery EVs is 
> > irresponsible. It is a matter of time. They can catch up  but it will take 
> > time. Their hydrogen side track is not helping. Lawrence Rhodes
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Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric

[Steves via EV]

It is odd that Toyota has not embraced full EVs. However they do have good plug 
in hybrid offerings now. I recently traded my Volt in for a Rav4 Prime and I 
really like it. It was the only car that fit my needs: 40 miles electric, 40 
MPG on gas, AWD, and 2000 lb towing capacity. I do a fair amount of long 
distance travel , so a straight EV is not a good match for me . I end up about 
50-50 on EV vs gas miles. 

I think PHEVs have a strong place right now. Unfortunately, current battery 
chemistry requires raw materials that are not extremely environmentally 
friendly to extract. Most EVs use a small fraction of their range during the 
day, so the battery is underutilized. My commute plus occasional shopping is 
almost always well under 40 miles. So I’m using the 40 mile battery optimally. 
In other words, my car uses the minimum amount of sensitive elements to support 
my normal driving. One could build 4 or 5 PHEVs with the battery used to build 
a full EV. Since battery availability seems to be a problem , we could have 4-5 
times more EV (ish) cars on the road. 

PHEVs also eliminate range anxiety, which I think slows adoption of EVs in the 
general population. My wife has a Bolt and has suffered through it and had to 
alter course or stay over places due to various  charging problems. She is 
committed to sustainability so she deals with it but most people would not. 

Yes PHEVs are more complicated and expensive. But my Volt was very reliable and 
worked really well. I think the Rav4 will be similar. 

So maybe Toyota is making a good business choice that also works toward greener 
vehicles. 

-Steve

> On May 19, 2023, at 5:28 AM, Bill Dube via EV  wrote:
> 
> Toyota is a closely held business. I believe it may be owned by a family.
> They were on the forefront of alternative fuels for many years, but they 
> stubbornly would not come out with a battery powered vehicle, until everyone 
> else came out with one and they basically had no choice.
> 
> I suspect that someone has the ear of the owner (or the oldest, and thus most 
> influential family member,) or perhaps the owner has the an incorrect vision 
> of the future of the car market.
> 
> If it were a publicly owned company, it would have long ago jumped on the EV 
> bandwagon.
> 
> Having said that, the Prius hybrid came out at a time when every other car 
> maker thought it was a very foolish move. The Prius would not have been built 
> if Toyota was a publicly owned company.
> 
> Bill D.
> 
>> On 5/19/2023 12:00 PM, Lawrence Rhodes via EV wrote:
>>  They seem to want to go bankrupt. Their resistance to battery EVs is 
>> irresponsible. It is a matter of time. They can catch up  but it will take 
>> time. Their hydrogen side track is not helping. Lawrence Rhodes
>> -- next part --
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Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric

[EV List Lackey via EV]

On 19 May 2023 at 0:00, Lawrence Rhodes via EV wrote:

> They seem to want to go bankrupt. 

Toyota is like Fiat (at least used to be) - wedded to the ICE.  At top 
management level, they seem to despise the very idea of true EVs.

I'm obvously not an insider, but I suspect that Toyota developed their 
original hybrid design not as a way to prepare for an EV future, but as a 
way to fend off EVs and support ICEVs.

Stellantis is in the EU, where sales of new private ICEVs have been banned 
by law from 2035. If they want to continue to compete, Stellantis have 
little choice but to develop and sell EVs.

Toyata is in (duh) Japan, and they have an enormous level of influence in 
the Japanese government.  That's probably why Japan's 2035 ICEV "ban" - wait 
for it - prohibits the sale of "liquid fuel only" vehicles.  

In other words, as Europe and China aim for true EVs, Japan is casting their 
lot with Toyota-approved hybrids.  

I think that in the long run, Toyota (and Honda, and Suzuki, and Mazda, and, 
well, Japan overall) will regret clinging so tightly to hybrids.  China is 
likely to do to Japan's auto industry in the 2030s what Japan did to the 
US's in the 1980s.  It will darn well serve them right.

I don't think that Toyota will actually declare bankruptcy as a result, but 
they're likely to become a smaller, less prosperous company.

David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey

To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it.  Use my 
offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = 

 We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and 
 technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about 
 science and technology. 

   -- Carl Sagan 
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = 

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Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric

[Bill Dube via EV]

Toyota is a closely held business. I believe it may be owned by a family.
They were on the forefront of alternative fuels for many years, but they 
stubbornly would not come out with a battery powered vehicle, until 
everyone else came out with one and they basically had no choice.


I suspect that someone has the ear of the owner (or the oldest, and thus 
most influential family member,) or perhaps the owner has the an 
incorrect vision of the future of the car market.


If it were a publicly owned company, it would have long ago jumped on 
the EV bandwagon.


Having said that, the Prius hybrid came out at a time when every other 
car maker thought it was a very foolish move. The Prius would not have 
been built if Toyota was a publicly owned company.


Bill D.

On 5/19/2023 12:00 PM, Lawrence Rhodes via EV wrote:

  They seem to want to go bankrupt. Their resistance to battery EVs is 
irresponsible. It is a matter of time. They can catch up  but it will take 
time. Their hydrogen side track is not helping. Lawrence Rhodes
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Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric

[Lawrence Rhodes via EV]

 They seem to want to go bankrupt. Their resistance to battery EVs is 
irresponsible. It is a matter of time. They can catch up  but it will take 
time. Their hydrogen side track is not helping. Lawrence Rhodes 
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Re: [EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric Vehicle

[paul dove via EV]

Here, you guys can get one of these.
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-outsold-china-hong-guang-mini-ev-2021-5?


Sent from AT Yahoo Mail for iPhone


On Wednesday, May 17, 2023, 6:29 PM, (-Phil-) via EV  wrote:

Since we are railing against the "Man" today (Auto Manufacturers):

https://jalopnik.com/toyota-focusing-on-hybrids-not-electric-vehicles-1850440908
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[EVDL] Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric Vehicle

[(-Phil-) via EV]

Since we are railing against the "Man" today (Auto Manufacturers):

https://jalopnik.com/toyota-focusing-on-hybrids-not-electric-vehicles-1850440908
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