Re: Several Criticisms of the Doomsday Argument

2008-01-23 Thread Rosy At Random
Hi, I'm just mulling this over in my head, but what effect do you guys think a many worlds context would have on the Doomsday argument? There seems to be an implicit assumption that we're _either_ in a universe where the human race has a long future, _or_ we're not. The missing possibility

Re: Several Criticisms of the Doomsday Argument

2008-01-23 Thread Russell Standish
This has been discussed on the list before. See my book Theory of Nothing, in particular page 88. Its available as a free download if you haven't bought a copy. Cheers On Wed, Jan 23, 2008 at 01:31:40PM -0800, Rosy At Random wrote: Hi, I'm just mulling this over in my head, but what

Re: Several Criticisms of the Doomsday Argument

2007-11-27 Thread Günther Greindl
HI, If all of the balls had been numbered unambiguously from 1 through 1,000,010, the statistical effect produced by Bostrom's ambiguous ball 7 would vanish. Agreed. Also consider another version: do not name the balls in the first urn 1 to 10, but with uniform random numbers of the

Re: Several Criticisms of the Doomsday Argument

2007-11-27 Thread Gene Ledbetter
Günther Greindl [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: If all of the balls had been numbered unambiguously from 1 through 1,000,010, the statistical effect produced by Bostrom's ambiguous ball 7 would vanish. Agreed. Also consider another version: do not name the balls in the first urn 1 to 10, but with

Several Criticisms of the Doomsday Argument

2007-11-26 Thread Gene Ledbetter
In his article, Investigations into the Doomsday Argument, Nick Bostrom introduces the Doomsday Argument with the following example: Imagine that two big urns are put in front of you, and you know that one of them contains ten balls and the other a million, but you are ignorant as to which is