Glen,
Yes, how people build bad models. Getting back to Taleb's point with the 'black
swan', that he should have stated more clearly, that it's always dangerous to
do complex analysis with fat tailed distributions. You might be still more
clear about it by making a list of behaviors that become
Glen,
I guess I'm intending "divergense" to specifically mean behavior
"progressively departing from" what it was, both in the mathematical and common
English sense. New kinds of behavior often develop as progressive changes
from former kinds, right? So a pattern of divergince can signal the
Nick, it looks like my replies yesterday AM didn't get through... I've been
poking at "making sense" as a reduction & mangling of the complex differences
between things,.. Losing the many by making it one. Sooo hard to say these
unexpected things simply. ;-)
Sent from my Verizon Wireless Blac
Glen,
You say "But, I'm not sure that "having clues to where to look for discoverable
things" is a reliable procedure. That sounds pretty ad hoc. If I were to
attempt to create a reliable procedure, it would invariably involve some
concerted (and distributed) hands-on effort to explore reality
That's closer I think. There's little point to agility for a little fish after
it has been swallowed. All that helps then is making excuses... briefly.
Agility only helps if you sense the 'disturbance' and avoid the attack
entirely. Derivatives are long range indicators of out of model event
Yes, increasing the available resource to relieve conflict has been the norm
for centuries. Now that since nearly anyone's taking of more resources is
increasingly robbing and disrupting other users, has sort of become the main
source of conflict on earth.. The negotiations are is crossing the
Well, the problem with the management solution for natural resource sharing is
there's no one in charge, and actually no position from which anyone could be.
So beyond learning creative ways for independent users to share, the only
option to avoid unexpected eruptions of conflict would be to ha
Or.. (Even if a little 'zooey') couldn't it be a direct continuation of the
earlier discussion of life being an 'ill-posed' question for information
analysis?
Phil.
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-Original Message-
From: Carl Tollander <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Wed, 16 Ja
Oh, I wish
Phil
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-Original Message-
From: "Stephen Guerin" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2008 23:02:24
To:
Cc:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [FRIAM] Wedl lecture: Oscillatory motion on frozen gradients
** Talks will be held in 8 minute i
That's nice, describing informality as sneaking in new axioms (or
'understandings', perhaps) in a series of assertions. Of course it's all but
impossible to not do that,... given the complex way that ideas arise out of
feelings and intents. What then about the invisible assumptions that tend to
Well, feedback loops begin and end too, and that displays an even greater
'inefficiency' for causation... Just plane old bloody gaps. The rub is that
systems of loops originate for no efficient cause. That's why I turned the sci
method around to warch them since it's clear we can't explain the
I missed the implication people are finding in Rosen's idea of "non-computable
models". Can someone offer some examples of instances where that matters. It
sounds like it means something other than 'insoluable'. Could it perhaps
include 'internalized' & so therefore not accessible?
Phil
Se
Glen,
Nearly all you say fits closely with my approach, except the word 'any' in the
following quote.
" To the contrary, I assume every actual system has an inherent
"hierarchicability" (following the word "extensibility") with respect to
any observer(s). In other words, a system can be projecte
Nick,
I'm glad you clarified, and it's a valid poit. My reply wasn't too far off. The
problem is that to study what IS happeniing rather than what SHOULD BE
(locating cause where it occurs rather than in unobservable imaginery events)
requires a new method.
Phil
Sent from my Verizon Wireless Bl
Sure, data is good to have, but what would past behavior tell you about the
novel aspects of new behavior, and how would you be able to tell that from
incomplete data on the past, anyway? For original behavior it would seem the
usual tools don't help much, unless you do what I do and. turn mode
Maybe the flaw of maximizing the throughput of systems is that you go to a lot
of effort to remove all. the resiliences and duplicate routines you wouldn't
know were necessary!
Phil
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FRIAM Appl
Of course. I didn't think I was precluding that. You are assuming that 100%
permanent sequestration for continuing growing energy uses, regularly doubling,
is both the most profitable direction of development and won't just transfer
multiplying impacts elsewhere. Isn't that abs. decoupling too?
Mikhail,
I grant one can look at and dwell on the mysterious relation between well
crafted understandings and the realitiies they connect with that are beyond
understanding. I also like taking thoughts in that direction sometimes. It's
the opposite direction I'm more interested in learning, th
I do take your point, but just because independent behaviors of emergent
natural systems are not susceptible to deterministic analysis of the usual sort
doesn't mean they're not observable, dangerous and generally predictable by
other more general means, right?
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Well, the counter example shows no systemicity at all, so perfectly well
behaved. Markets are not supposd to display, as the example, emergent
systemicity of any kind, let alone dramatic self-destructive behavior
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-Original Message-
From: "Mar
Note, of course, that he directly defines the possible number of sub-groups in
a network as its 'utility' or as in the first line of the link defining that,
the 'hapiness' of the net!
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-Original Message-
From: Owen Densmore <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Da
And to fill in 80% of the gaps read Jane Jacobs on N. Sys. econ.
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-Original Message-
From: David Mirly <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Sun, 12 Aug 2007 13:45:25
To:The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need fo
A surprisingly well founded measure of global enniron impact of anything is
$1=8000btu, across the board! It's valid measure of a global system property!
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-Original Message-
From: Owen Densmore <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Sun, 12 Aug 2007 14:26:32
If multiplying our impacts has unexpected effects, maybe we shouldn't mess with
that then Shouldn't interfear in the plan?
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-Original Message-
From: "Roger Critchlow" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Sun, 12 Aug 2007 12:07:54
To:"The Friday Morning A
An interesting corollary to that is that is that exponentials exceed even their
own internal response times,...
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-Original Message-
From: David Mirly <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Sun, 12 Aug 2007 09:33:24
To:The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coff
Yes, that's one of the tightly reasoned paths, but how do you stop growth
without wrecking everything??
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-Original Message-
From: David Breecker <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Sat, 11 Aug 2007 21:50:35
To:The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Gr
Yea,... The"re better, but have you juit shot in the dark again or used the
equation??
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-Original Message-
From: Owen Densmore <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Sat, 11 Aug 2007 21:33:24
To:The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re:
Or reaity...! No?
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-Original Message-
From: "Glen E. P. Ropella" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Fri, 10 Aug 2007 07:04:41
To:The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: [FRIAM] perfect info (was Global Slum: ...)
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