Re: [obrolan-bandar] ASII (TP Rp7,700) - JP Morgan: January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse than what recent media reports indicated
Kalau mau jadi investor long-term..7.700 mesti buy. Turunnya penjualan ASII karena faktor ekonomi global, akan tetapi daya saing perusahaannya sendiri masih tetap yahud. Saat ekonomi pulih, saham ini jg dengan cepat akan recover. On Tue, Feb 17, 2009 at 12:13 PM, simon bolenang simon_bolen...@yahoo.comwrote: Risetnya bikin muntah darah. Headline: Astra International: January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse than what recent media reports indicated Abstract: January 4W sales fell 20% M/M, a negative surprise: 4W vehicle sales in Indonesia declined to 31,634 units in Januarymdash;versus 34,000 unit sales, as indicated by Bloomberg. Volumes fell 23% Y/Y and 20% M/M. Vehicle sales have declined by 43% since October, and the pace of contraction continues to accelerate. We believe our forecast that vehicle sales will stabilize at 30,000 units per month faces downside risks. We are wary of a sudden increase in market share: In the past quarter, Astrarsquo;s market share rose to more than 60%. Although, we expect Astra to gain market share in a downturn, we believe the significant increase in its market share brings with it uncomfortable memories. In late FY05/early FY06, Astrarsquo;s market share increase resulted in large channel inventories and was followed by a decrease in sales volume (please refer to Figure 1). If a similar pattern is emerging, we are concerned that the recent increase in market share could be symptomatic of rising channel inventories, which may not bode well for volumes in coming months. Downward pressure intact; we stay UW: On February 11, 2009, ASIIrsquo;s stock price fell over 6% on news (Bloomberg) that vehicle sales in January were 34,000 units. With actual figures being lower, we expect negative reaction to this data. Our FY09E EPS for Astra is 15% below the consensus estimate; we expect downward estimate revisions after a potentially weak sales release. We see this as a key negative driver. Hence, we reiterate our UW rating on Astra. We prefer UNTR within the group: Our Dec-09 PT of Rp7,700 for Astra is in line with its current book value, and based on 6x FY09E EPS, which is in line with previous trough values. Value accruing from Astrarsquo;s subsidiaries (which have recently outperformed the parent) is a risk to our view, but investors could look at UNTR directly to play this angle.
Re: [obrolan-bandar] ASII (TP Rp7,700) - JP Morgan: January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse than what recent media reports indicated
ya... sudah nungguin nih... kagak dikasih2 jamuran :) 2009/2/18 XXX bubbletra...@gmail.com Kalau mau jadi investor long-term..7.700 mesti buy. Turunnya penjualan ASII karena faktor ekonomi global, akan tetapi daya saing perusahaannya sendiri masih tetap yahud. Saat ekonomi pulih, saham ini jg dengan cepat akan recover. On Tue, Feb 17, 2009 at 12:13 PM, simon bolenang simon_bolen...@yahoo.com wrote: Risetnya bikin muntah darah. Headline: Astra International: January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse than what recent media reports indicated Abstract: January 4W sales fell 20% M/M, a negative surprise: 4W vehicle sales in Indonesia declined to 31,634 units in Januarymdash;versus 34,000 unit sales, as indicated by Bloomberg. Volumes fell 23% Y/Y and 20% M/M. Vehicle sales have declined by 43% since October, and the pace of contraction continues to accelerate. We believe our forecast that vehicle sales will stabilize at 30,000 units per month faces downside risks. We are wary of a sudden increase in market share: In the past quarter, Astrarsquo;s market share rose to more than 60%. Although, we expect Astra to gain market share in a downturn, we believe the significant increase in its market share brings with it uncomfortable memories. In late FY05/early FY06, Astrarsquo;s market share increase resulted in large channel inventories and was followed by a decrease in sales volume (please refer to Figure 1). If a similar pattern is emerging, we are concerned that the recent increase in market share could be symptomatic of rising channel inventories, which may not bode well for volumes in coming months. Downward pressure intact; we stay UW: On February 11, 2009, ASIIrsquo;s stock price fell over 6% on news (Bloomberg) that vehicle sales in January were 34,000 units. With actual figures being lower, we expect negative reaction to this data. Our FY09E EPS for Astra is 15% below the consensus estimate; we expect downward estimate revisions after a potentially weak sales release. We see this as a key negative driver. Hence, we reiterate our UW rating on Astra. We prefer UNTR within the group: Our Dec-09 PT of Rp7,700 for Astra is in line with its current book value, and based on 6x FY09E EPS, which is in line with previous trough values. Value accruing from Astrarsquo;s subsidiaries (which have recently outperformed the parent) is a risk to our view, but investors could look at UNTR directly to play this angle.
Re: [obrolan-bandar] ASII (TP Rp7,700) - JP Morgan: January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse than what recent media reports indicated
Bisa dapet tapi nanti kalau 'penjual siaga' nya sudah keluar. Kayak INDF tuh, turun hayuk, naik ogah :-0 From: anru dadaq anru.s...@gmail.com To: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups..com Sent: Wednesday, 18 February 2009 3:13:33 Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] ASII (TP Rp7,700) - JP Morgan: January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse than what recent media reports indicated ya... sudah nungguin nih... kagak dikasih2 jamuran :) 2009/2/18 XXX bubbletra...@gmail.com Kalau mau jadi investor long-term..7.700 mesti buy. Turunnya penjualan ASII karena faktor ekonomi global, akan tetapi daya saing perusahaannya sendiri masih tetap yahud. Saat ekonomi pulih, saham ini jg dengan cepat akan recover. Importing contacts has never been easier..Bring your friends over to Yahoo! Mail today! http://www.trueswitch.com/yahoo-sg
Re: [obrolan-bandar] ASII (TP Rp7,700) - JP Morgan: January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse than what recent media reports indicated
Kondisi 97-98 beda dgn saat ini, coba refresh lagi ingatan anda apa yg terjadi pd group Astra pd saat itu. On 2/18/09, y_dizz y_d...@mail2web.com wrote: Mereka yang pernah mengalami krismon tahun 1997-1998, tahu apa yang mesti dilakukan pada saham ini. Silahkan cek harga saham ASII pada waktu itu. Boleh tanya salah satu senior di sini, Pak Tommy Jayamudita, kalo nggak percaya. Regards, Yudizz --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, XXX bubbletra...@... wrote: Kalau mau jadi investor long-term..7.700 mesti buy. Turunnya penjualan ASII karena faktor ekonomi global, akan tetapi daya saing perusahaannya sendiri masih tetap yahud. Saat ekonomi pulih, saham ini jg dengan cepat akan recover. + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links -- Sent from my mobile device
Re: [obrolan-bandar] ASII (TP Rp7,700) - JP Morgan: January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse than what recent media reports indicated
Tolong dikasih tau donk.. Karena ga semua disini pemain lama.. Saya ga tau apa yang terjadi.. Saya tau akhirnya si rebound juga setelah bertahun2.. Apa ada ganti pemegang saham pada krisis? Saya ga tau.. Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: Dodi H freaker2...@gmail.com Date: Wed, 18 Feb 2009 18:48:33 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] ASII (TP Rp7,700) - JP Morgan: January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse than what recent media reports indicated Kondisi 97-98 beda dgn saat ini, coba refresh lagi ingatan anda apa yg terjadi pd group Astra pd saat itu. On 2/18/09, y_dizz y_d...@mail2web.com wrote: Mereka yang pernah mengalami krismon tahun 1997-1998, tahu apa yang mesti dilakukan pada saham ini. Silahkan cek harga saham ASII pada waktu itu. Boleh tanya salah satu senior di sini, Pak Tommy Jayamudita, kalo nggak percaya. Regards, Yudizz --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, XXX bubbletra...@... wrote: Kalau mau jadi investor long-term..7.700 mesti buy. Turunnya penjualan ASII karena faktor ekonomi global, akan tetapi daya saing perusahaannya sendiri masih tetap yahud. Saat ekonomi pulih, saham ini jg dengan cepat akan recover. + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links -- Sent from my mobile device
Re: [obrolan-bandar] ASII (TP Rp7,700) - JP Morgan: January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse than what recent media reports indicated
ASII test 10800? Buy atau bye bye pak JT? Mohon petunjuk, pak JT masuk www.xat.com/Obrolan_Bandar dong
Re: [obrolan-bandar] ASII (TP Rp7,700) - JP Morgan: January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse than what recent media reports indicated
Buy back aja 2009/2/17 Alexandra Arimbi arim...@gmail.com ASII test 10800? Buy atau bye bye pak JT? Mohon petunjuk, pak JT masuk www.xat.com/Obrolan_Bandar dong
Re: [obrolan-bandar] ASII (TP Rp7,700) - JP Morgan: January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse than what recent media reports indicated
Kalo bisa 7700 bener kita ikutan buy deh. ASII kan induk dari Astra grup yg oke punya bisnisnya thanks ada program diskon
